Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/3)-(6/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/3)-(1/6) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (6/3)-(1/6)-(4/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-2   WIN (1/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/6)-(1/6) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/6)-(4/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/6)-(4/1/6)-(5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-3   WIN (4/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/6)-(4/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/6)-(4/1/6)-(4/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/6)-(5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/1/6)-(5/3)-(6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-4   WIN (5/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/3)-(5/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/3)-(6/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (5/3)-(6/3)-(1/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-5   WIN (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/3)-(6/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/3)-(1/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/3)-(1/3/5)-(10/6/2/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-6   WIN (1/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/5)-(1/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3/5)-(1/3/5)-(1/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/3/5)-(10/6/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/3/5)-(10/6/2/5)-(6/4/11) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-7   WIN (10/6/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/6/2/5)-(10/6/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/6/2/5)-(10/6/2/5)-(10/6/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (10/6/2/5)-(6/4/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/6/2/5)-(6/4/11)-(12/7/8/1/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-8   WIN (6/4/11) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/11)-(6/4/11) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/11)-(6/4/11)-(6/4/11) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/11)-(12/7/8/1/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-9   WIN (12/7/8/1/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/7/8/1/2)-(12/7/8/1/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (12/7/8/1/2)-(12/7/8/1/2)-(12/7/8/1/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SECRET POCKET Sep24 Aug19 Jun29 Jun02 Apr29 (peitz c)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00    
2  MAN ON THE MOON Aug19 Jul27 May20 Apr22 Mar30 (damato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 4.50    
3  P H FACTOR Aug18 Jul27 Jul12 Jul02 May14 (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 121 6.00 30% 2.30    
4  BEST OF GREELEY Nov01 Sep25 Sep05 Aug17 Jul06 (morse rand)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00    
SCR  TIGER MOON Oct20 Sep27 Sep08 May06 Mar31 (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 121 2.00    
6  INDIAN GULCH Oct10 Jul18 Jun29 Jun08 May08 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.50 37% 1.70    
 
CD-2   11/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALTERED SHOT Sep30 Aug06 Jun22 May12 Mar17 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.00 30% 2.30    
2  DEALING JUSTICE Aug27 Jul23 Jun09 Apr21 Mar02 (mott rile)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 4.50    
SCR  NEED SOME MONEY Sep21 Aug16 Jul13 Jun01 May20 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
4  BACKYARD MONEY Dec09 Nov20 Sep23 Sep05 Aug11 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 8.00    
5  MEGAN'S CLARA Oct01 Jul15 Jun03 Mar25 Feb26 (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50    
6  FASHION RAGE Aug06 Jul08 Jun09 Apr23 Mar09 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 4.00 28% 2.50    
 
CD-3   11/16/2023 5940ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEN FRANKLIN Oct21 Sep23       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.50 20% 4.10    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of INVENTIVE by DIXIE UNION)
2  TIZ WICKED STRONG Sep28 Aug05 Jul07 May14   (baker james)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 5.00    
  (by WICKED STRONG out of TIZ KISMET by TIZNOW)
3  GAME KEEPER Oct21 Aug24 Aug11 Jul21 Jun02 (lukas wa)ASMUSSEN J 121 12.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of CABLEKNIT by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
4  ALEXANDER HELIOS Oct21 Aug06 Jun25 Nov04 Oct07 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 36% 1.80    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of CASHMERE by PHONE TRICK)
5  TREBLE CLEF Oct20 Sep17       (mott william)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.50    
  (by ARROGATE out of UNO DUO by MACHO UNO)
6  ICE TIME Sep28 Aug31 Aug05 Jun13 May25 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 15% 5.80    
  (by KEEN ICE out of SIRENUSA by TIZNOW)
7  BEARINGS Nov05 Sep23 Dec03     (mott william )GARCIA MARTIN 121 6.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of STEADY COURSE by OLD TRIESTE)
 
CD-4   11/16/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FANTASTICAL Oct19         (sharp joe)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of WANGARI by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  FUNDAMENTALLY Sep21 Aug05       (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of IMPRINT by QUALITY ROAD)
3  YES TO CHAMPAGNE Oct25 Sep27       (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 36% 1.80    
  (by MITOLE out of GLENCOE CHURCH by CAPOTE)
4  VOICE FROM ABOVE         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of HOW FAR TO HEAVEN by DISTORTED HUMOR)
5  NEOM BEACH Sep28 Jul20       (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.50 40% 1.50    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of GIANT'S CAUSEY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  KISS BLUE         (mott rile)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of KISS THE DEVIL by KRIS S.)
SCR  ITS SATISFACTUAL         (devaux cherie)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of YES ITS FACTUAL by YES IT'S TRUE)
8  ADRASTEIA Oct27 Sep28 Sep16     (bogle fergus)ELLIOTT JANE 119 12.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of ARROSTOS by BODEMEISTER)
SCR  BUTTERFLY QUEEN Oct11 Sep16       (maker michael )CHUAN MARTIN 119 3.50    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of MAJESTIC MONARCH by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
SCR  ON THE NILE         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of TITANIUM JO by BERNSTEIN)
SCR  LUZ DIVINA Oct11 Sep23 Sep02     (hamm timothy)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of DIVINA LUZ by WILD EVENT)
SCR  MAGIC GATHERING Sep21         (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of GLEANING by HARD SPUN)
SCR  STEPHANIESWARRIOR Oct26 Oct10 Aug31 Jul19 Jul06 (capps a)BEJARANO R 119 30.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of ANCIENT GODDESS by IFFRAAJ)
SCR  WHIMSICALLY Oct04 Sep02 Jul09     (devaux ch)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 2.50    
  (by UNCLE MO out of COMING ATTRACTION by TAPIT)
 
CD-5   11/16/2023 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ST. ELMO Sep27 Aug26 Jul07 Jun10 Apr14 (mccarthy m)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00    
SCR  SOUTHERN CRUSH Sep07 Aug11 Jul21 Jan01 Dec02 (blair jordan)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
3  HURRY HURRY Oct11 Aug19 Jun30 Jun11 Mar16 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 118 1.80 19% 4.30    
4  LUNA VIEJA Sep15 Aug26 Jun29 Jun02 Apr14 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
5  WHAT'S UP DOC Oct21 Aug26 Aug12 Jul22 Jun29 (ginter raymond)ASHTON GAVIN 121 6.00    
6  INEXORABLE Nov03 Oct11 Sep14 Jul30 Sep25 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 1.60 55% 0.80    
 
CD-6   11/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VICKI ROSE Mar11 Jun03 May13     (matejka pavel)BEJARANO R 122 3.50 48% 1.10    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of PLANAR by EMPIRE MAKER)
2  MARKET PROFILE Oct12 Jun27 Nov26 Oct30 Sep23 (heath dest)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of RECOUPE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
3  ICICLES Oct30 Oct07 Dec19 Nov24   (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 122 2.50 28% 2.60    
  (by FROSTED out of HARD TEN HOPPING by ROCK HARD TEN)
4  ITSABLINGTHING Sep15 Aug30 Jul08 May29 May04 (barrett rod)PETERSON FERRIN 122 4.00    
  (by PONTIFF out of IT'S MY KNIGHT by YES IT'S TRUE)
5  LADAN Jan25 Dec07 Nov17 Nov10 Oct20 (bogle fergus)ELLIOTT JANE 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UNIFIED out of JILL'S FIREBIRD by BIRDSTONE)
6  ALWAYSGOTOTHEPARTY Oct05         (michael bria)CALLEJA ANDRES 112 12.00    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of MAXIE FORD by TAPIT)
7  CRUSHED ICE Oct28 Oct07 Sep03 Aug18   (quartaro)SANTANA JR 122 3.00    
  (by CONNECT out of STARLET STORM by THE FACTOR)
SCR  DREAM ON STORMY Nov01 Oct07 Sep15 Sep03   (winston fr)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 12.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of LU BATON by ROAR)
 
CD-7   11/16/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FLASHY LASS Oct22 Aug28 Aug01     (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 120 3.50    
2  LET'S DUET Oct20 Sep23 May12 Apr07 Mar04 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 121 12.00 17% 5.00    
3  LEXA (FR) Oct20 Sep23 Aug05 Jul05 May24 (beckman d )CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00    
4  NEW BEAT Oct06 Mar25 Feb18     (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
5  DEAR LADY Oct14 Sep01 Jul22 Feb11 Jan20 (mcpeek ke)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  PIGALLE Nov05 Jul22 Jun24 Jun01 Mar16 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00 18% 4.40    
7  HER LADYSHIP Nov01 Sep23 Jul14 May27 Apr21 (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00    
8  QUEEN OF MISSOULA Oct08 Aug04 Jul15     (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00    
9  TOWER BRIDGE Sep04 Jul15 May28     (devaux cheri)GEROUX FLORENT 118 12.00    
10  POBLANO Oct20 Sep23 Aug04 Nov26 Oct22 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.80 43% 1.30    
 
CD-8   11/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CORA PEARL Sep08 Aug19 Jun15 Apr01 Feb24 (brinkman bret)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
2  LAURA'S CHARM Oct20 Sep24 Jul22 Jun22 May28 (kerrick lacy)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 8.00    
SCR  AMERICAN STARLET Sep02 Jun22 May19 Oct19 Sep13 (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 120 4.00    
4  HIGH CLASS Sep21 Aug26 Jul09 Nov23 Oct30 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 27% 2.70    
SCR  TROUBLE MAKING Sep02 Aug10 Jun29 May24 Sep05 (meah m)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 20.00    
6  LADY GOLDSTART Sep24 Aug19 Jul22 Jul07 Jun16 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 35% 1.90    
7  CURRENT CLIMATE Oct22 Sep24 Sep02 Jul22 Jun11 (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 122 3.50    
SCR  GRANATO Oct11 May16       (beckman whi)CANNON DECLAN 120 8.00    
9  MINER'S QUEEN Oct22 Sep24 Sep02 Jul07 Jun10 (hernandez rey)BEJARANO R 120 20.00    
10  FRANGO ELECTRICO Oct20 Sep27 Sep07 Aug19 Aug03 (bahe)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 30.00    
11  TALES OF HOME Oct19 Apr27 Mar16 Feb18 Jan14 (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 5.00 14% 6.10    
 
CD-9   11/16/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($62K) 2 F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CLASSIC MYSTERY Oct03         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 8% 11.30    
2  SPIRITUAL LADY Oct11 Sep09 Aug02     (sharp jo)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  CONTRABBANDA Aug19         (servis john)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00    
4  MYDIXIELANDDELIGHT         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
5  IUKA MISS Oct25 Sep14 Jul22     (stall albert )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00    
6  WINDY WALK Oct19         (davis christ)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
7  SISTER ELLA Oct06         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 4.00 24% 3.10    
8  SWEET MIMI Sep23 Aug05 Jul07     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 14% 6.40    
9  UP THE CREEK         (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
10  MARCO SUNSET Oct21         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
11  SING A LITTLE SONG         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00    
12  CONTROLLED TEMPER Oct19 Sep21 Aug18     (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 28% 2.60    
SCR  YOU'RE FOREVER Nov12         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00    
SCR  TAPPIN INTO GENIUS         (leitch dan)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.