Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Ellis Park
Saturday - July 13, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-3   WIN (5/8/9/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00  8 $11.10 $3.10 39%
ELP-4   WIN (6/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00  5 $8.18 $2.18 36%
    DD (5/8/9/4)-(6/5/1) 12 $2.00 $24.00  8-5 $43.66 $19.66 82%
ELP-5   WIN (9/3/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00  3 $8.86 $0.86 11%
    EXA (9/3/4/1)-(9/3/4/10/1) 16 $2.00 $32.00  3-10 $59.20 $27.20 85%
    TRI (9/3/4/1)-(9/3/4/10/1)-(9/3/4/10/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00  3-10-9 $57.73 $33.73 141%
    DD (6/5/1)-(9/3/4/1) 12 $2.00 $24.00  5-3 $32.74 $8.74 36%
    PK3 (5/8/9/4)-(6/5/1)-(9/3/4/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00  8-5-3 $70.77 $46.77 195%
ELP-6   WIN (5/2/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00  2 $13.20 $7.20 120%
    EXA (5/2/7)-(5/2/7) 6 $2.00 $12.00  2-7 $49.38 $37.38 312%
    DD (9/3/4/1)-(5/2/7) 12 $2.00 $24.00  3-2 $56.68 $32.68 136%
    PK3 (6/5/1)-(9/3/4/1)-(5/2/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00  5-3-2 $74.05 $56.05 311%
ELP-7   WIN (2/8/4/1/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00  4 $11.36 $1.36 14%
    DD (5/2/7)-(2/8/4/1/7) 15 $2.00 $30.00  2-4 $89.78 $59.78 199%
    PK3 (9/3/4/1)-(5/2/7)-(2/8/4/1/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00  3-2-4 $113.45 $83.45 278%
ELP-8   EXA (4/8/3/6)-(4/8/3/6) 12 $2.00 $24.00  3-4 $44.44 $20.44 85%
    TRI (4/8/3/6)-(4/8/3/6)-(4/8/3/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00  3-4-6 $65.36 $53.36 445%
    DD (2/8/4/1/7)-(4/8/3/6) 20 $2.00 $40.00  4-3 $54.80 $14.80 37%
    PK3 (5/2/7)-(2/8/4/1/7)-(4/8/3/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00  2-4-3 $71.14 $41.14 137%
Simulator Race results
 
ELP-1   07/13/2024 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT-12:50
See original race card.
null null null null null null   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  MAZOKU 6 2 31½ 1½   1½ 12 (butcher j)BEALMEAR C 117 0.60 57% 0.80 0.43 W
4  STAND BY YOU 4 6 42 42½   43 22 (watkins ja)CORRALES GERARDO 122 4.50 17% 4.80 7.06 P
2  SHIP IT 2 3 21 31   32½ 33 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 122 10.00 8.65  
3  CRACKALACKING 3 1 11 2½   2½ 43½ (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 5.00 6.38  
1  HONEY RUN 1 7 77 77½   67½ 510 (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 122 15.00 5% 19.00 22.59  
5  SUPERTALEOFHOUDINI 5 5 64 66½   77½ 613 (brennan te)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 20.00 32.30  
7  GOSHEN 7 4 53½ 54   56½ 713½ (foster eric)FUENTES ERICK 112 10.00 5% 19.00 11.53  
 
ELP-2   07/13/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
See original race card.
:221 :451 :583     1:121   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  MOON FLEET 2 2 23½ 22½   1½ 18 (roberson denni)CASTANON L 119 4.50 4.16  
4  BOLD APPEAL 3 1 13½ 12½   2½ 28 (moquett ronald)MACHADO LUAN 119 1.40 61% 0.60 0.58 P
7  VINO VELOCE 6 3 611 511½   49½ 39¾ (puhich mike)BARBOSA CARLOS 114 8.00 5% 19.00 9.81 S
1  LOW KEY FLEX 1 4 36½ 38   36½ 410½ (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 5.00 4.21  
5  NIGHT CRY 4 6 49 411   512½ 519 (pittma)LOPEZ EDUARDO 119 20.00 5% 19.00 26.47  
6  RISK THE WIND 5 5 510½ 616   618½ 645½ (medina robe)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00 13.93  
SCR  E STORMY               (foster eric)FUENTES ERICK 109 12.00    
SCR  NAUGHTY MISS               (cano mu)TORRES A 119 6.00    
 
ELP-3   07/13/2024 3960ft DIRT RC2 FAST Mdn Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($44K) 2 F PT- 1:49
See original race card.
:222 :461 :591     1:132   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  CONTINUITY 5 5 3½ 1nk   1nk 1½ (kenneally )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 6.00 10% 8.70 4.55 W
2  LOVEBUG 1 3 1nk 2nk   2nk 2½ (hamilton sarah)ELLIOTT JANE 119 15.00 8.11  
5  IBUKI 3 4 42½ 54¼   46¼ 39¾ (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 4.00 46% 1.20 3.51 S
4  PREYATHOUSANDWORDS 2 2 2nk 34   36 410 (veinot trudy)BEJARANO R 119 20.00 5% 19.00 10.45  
9  WAVER 6 1 53 44¼   57¼ 514¼ (asmussen steve)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00 8% 11.50 5.27  
6  STATLER INN 4 7 75½ 68¼   69¾ 614¼ (hancock a)LANERIE J 119 10.00 3.01  
10  INDY'S UNIVERSE 7 6 64 711¾   717¾ 733 (davis chri)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.50 3.86  
SCR  ANONIMA               (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
SCR  BAYTOWN SHINJUKU               (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 112 30.00    
SCR  GRACE ON GRACE               (demeritte larr)CASTANON L 119 3.00    
 
ELP-4   07/13/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:21
See original race card.
:223 :461 :582     1:11   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  TAGLIATELLE 5 4 42¼ 4¼   12 12¾ (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.00 25% 3.00 3.09 W
2  EXPRESS CRUISER 2 6 64¼ 62¾   63¼ 22¾ (camejo m)BEJARANO R 118 3.50 4.50  
1  BOBWHITE BOBBY 1 5 52¼ 51¾   53¼ 35¼ (von hemel )LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 8.00 5% 19.00 7.33 S
6  EDDIE M 6 1 3.2 3.2   33 47 (arnold george )CHUAN MARTIN 122 2.50 31% 2.20 4.96  
3  WESTERN COMMAND 3 3 1nk 1nk   22 57½ (amoss m)LANERIE J 122 3.00 2.25  
4  CITY OF CLOUDS 4 2 2nk 2nk   43 68¾ (santamaria)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 4.50 4.21  
 
ELP-5   07/13/2024 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 F PT- 2:53
See original race card.
:211 :441 :56     1:02   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  LADY ORIENT 3 9 62¾ 52½   31½ 1nk (amoss thom)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 4.50 18% 4.50 3.43 W
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of SECOND COMING by GHOSTZAPPER)
10  DON'T CALL ME BABE 8 3 41½ 41½   1nk 2nk (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 ★ 5.79 P
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of THAT VOODOO YOUDO by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
9  BOIS BLANC 7 1 1nk 1½   2nk 3¼ (wojczyns)RODRIGUEZ A 119 3.50 40% 1.50 3.80 S
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of FLORIAN by TWIN TIME)
11  PRINCESS SKAYA 9 7 74¾ 76¼   64 44 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00 6.59  
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  FIXIN TO BEE 2 10 87¼ 87¼   75 55½ (arnold george )CHUAN MARTIN 119 20.00 18.51  
  (by MSHAWISH out of SUSIE BEE by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
1  CITY COCKTAILS 1 8 52½ 62¾   42 67½ (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 15.00 5% 19.00 13.11  
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of COCKTAILS ON TAP by TAPIZAR)
12  PRESHA 10 6 3½ 31½   86½ 710¾ (walden william)ACHARD ALEX 119 5.00 6.33  
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of HUMOR ME DIXIE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
4  MELITTLEFROSTGIRL 4 2 2nk 2½   52½ 811 (hancock joh)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00 17% 5.00 7.06  
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of LIGHT FROST by FROSTED (GB))
7  SWEET BEBSI 5 5 1011¾ 1014¼   1015 917¼ (walsh d)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 12.15  
  (by VIOLENCE out of SWEET NKOSI by A. P. WARRIOR)
8  BY REQUEST 6 4 97¼ 97¾   912½ 1023 (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00 23.60  
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of INVITATION by VINDICATION)
SCR  PAX AMERICANA               (lynch a)GRAHAM J 119 5.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of COEXISTENCE by VIOLENCE)
SCR  PONDERING               (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 119 4.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of ALWAYS THINKING by STREET SENSE)
SCR  SHE'S ALL CHARM               (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 119 3.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of TOO CHARMING by BERNARDINI)
SCR  VICTORY WALTZ               (corrigan jim)LEZCANO ABEL 119 6.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of VIENNA'S WALTZ by FREUD)
 
ELP-6   07/13/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($25K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:22
See original race card.
:233 :462 1:114 1:25   1:383   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  AMERICAN RAIDER 1 2 55 33½ 31 2nk 11½ (asmussen stev)GARCIA MARTIN 124 6.00 22% 3.50 5.60 W
7  QUEBRANCHO 4 5 11 1½ 1nk 1nk 21½ (bahena ismael)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00 6% 14.60 6.92 P
4  ENDLESS REIGN 2 3 43 44 44½ 44½ 34¼ (lynch bria)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 1.80  
5  CHULLIGAN 3 1 21 2½ 2nk 32 48 (shirer matt)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 3.00 45% 1.20 1.02  
8  TIE BREAKER LENNIE 5 4 33 54½ 55 58 516¾ (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 12.00 10.82  
SCR  PENROD               (moquett ronald)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.50    
SCR  QUIET RUSH               (arnold george )CHUAN MARTIN 118 4.00    
SCR  WEEKEND FLAME               (gowan willia)MONCADA IRVING 108 30.00    
 
ELP-7   07/13/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:233 :472 1:123 1:253   1:384   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  PLAYBACK 4 2 52½ 42 2½ 1nk 11 (lobo h)ROMAN A 118 4.50 19% 4.30 4.68 W
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
5  CHURNING BERNI 5 9 107½ 94¾ 42½ 32 21 (pessin l)LANERIE J 118 20.00 28.04  
  (by BERNARDINI out of ABUNDANT FLURRY by MIDSHIPMAN)
9  BABY AVERY 9 4 2½ 2nk 1½ 2nk 33 (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 111 30.00 24.75  
  (by RUNHAPPY out of CHARMAINE'S LEGACY by MR. GREELEY)
1  PENNY ROYAL 1 5 74½ 83¾ 63½ 65¾ 45¼ (asmussen stev)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.50 10% 8.70 4.20  
  (by CURLIN out of GLINDA THE GOOD by HARD SPUN)
3  PRETTY PERTINENT 3 1 32 31½ 52½ 53¾ 55½ (molloy th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00 11.82  
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of PRETTY PROLIFIC by LION HEART)
7  SKYLAROSE 7 7 85 105¼ 96½ 87¼ 68¾ (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 5% 19.00 16.58  
  (by SKY MESA out of PISTOL PACKIN ROSE by FIRST DEFENCE)
2  BOLT'S BROAD 2 6 96 63¼ 75 76¼ 78¾ (delima e)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 8.00 28% 2.60 6.09  
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of AWESOME BROAD by MR. BROAD BLADE)
8  SUSTANCIA 8 3 1½ 1nk 31½ 43½ 89½ (kenneally )LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 5.00 22% 3.60 3.91  
  (by VIOLENCE out of SUSTAINABLE by SOCIETY MAX)
6  AVALON GIRL 6 12 129¾ 127 109 1010¾ 914 (moquett ronald)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00 14.52  
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of FLASH OF WONDER by TIZ WONDERFUL)
10  SHEZALITTLESTINKER 10 10 63½ 73¾ 86 99¼ 1015 (catalano wa)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00 9.46  
  (by GUN RUNNER out of J. QUIRK by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
12  POLITICAL SPIN 12 11 117¾ 116¾ 1111 1113¾ 1123¼ (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00 39.08  
  (by COLLECTED out of PICK UP LINE by HARD SPUN)
11  VIABLE 11 8 42 52¼ 12100 12100 12100 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 8.36  
  (by CURLIN out of RELEVANT by HOLD YOUR PEACE)
 
ELP-8   07/13/2024 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($73K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:19
See original race card.
:22 :442 :56     1:014   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  MAKEUP 2 7 74 84¾   52½ 1½ (asmussen steve)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.00 23% 3.30 2.31 W
4  LA LA ROSE 3 3 42 41¾   42 2½ (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 3.50 28% 2.50 3.95 P
6  CABERNEIGH 5 1 2nk 2nk   2nk 31 (barker scott )CANUTO THIAGO 118 12.00 5% 19.00 8.32 S
5  PLUM TRICKY 4 2 1nk 1nk   1nk 41¾ (stewart d)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00 9.16  
7  FLUENT 6 4 31½ 31½   31½ 52¼ (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00 26.93  
8  DETERMINED CANDY 7 5 53 63¼   72¾ 62¾ (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00 23% 3.30 3.60  
2  SACOS STOGIE 1 6 63½ 52¾   62¾ 73¼ (acevedo israel)BEJARANO R 120 30.00 32.18  
9  OUR DOTSIE 8 8 84½ 74¾   83¼ 84½ (oliver vic)CORRALES GERARDO 122 4.50 3.55  
SCR  ARMY GIRL               (wisner j)ACHARD ALEX 122 20.00    
SCR  SICKLE DANCE               (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 8.00    
 
ELP-9   07/13/2024 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($28K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:48
See original race card.
:223 :46 1:10 1:22   1:334   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  LADY MERCEDES 3 4 63½ 64 63¼ 42 11 (forster t)LANERIE J 123 6.00 4.02  
5  CANT KEEP ME DOWN 5 3 31 31½ 2nk 1nk 21 (salas felipe)CHUAN MARTIN 123 6.00 20% 4.00 3.64 P
2  SHE'S JERSEY TUFF 2 7 85½ 85½ 84¼ 52½ 31¾ (kenneally )LOVEBERRY JARETH 123 6.00 8.59  
7  MISS TAPPY TONE 7 8 98 96½ 95¾ 74¼ 41¾ (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 123 3.50 30% 2.40 2.93  
1  BELLA CRUELLA 1 1 1½ 1½ 1nk 2nk 52 (williamson b)BARBOSA CARLOS 113 6.00 8% 12.10 4.54  
10  LIL TOWN SIS 9 5 52½ 53½ 41½ 31½ 62½ (asmussen steve)MACHADO LUAN 125 6.00 10% 8.70 8.83  
8  RUN RUN RABBIT 8 6 42 42½ 51¾ 62¾ 73¼ (fletcher kevin)ACHARD ALEX 118 30.00 5% 19.00 43.16  
4  ALAMO 4 2 2½ 2½ 3½ 84¾ 88¼ (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 8.00 12.35  
6  HATTIE M 6 9 74 74½ 74¼ 96¾ 98¾ (huffman pa)CORRALES GERARDO 123 8.00 15.69  
SCR  LUCKY ANA               (douaihy m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.