Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Thursday - September 26, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (8/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 8 1 1 $8.42 $8.42 2.42
CD-2   Win (3/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 0 $4.86  
CD-3   Win (7/1/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 1 $12.34 $12.34 4.34
CD-4   Win (2/3/8/1/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 7 1 0 $22.20  
CD-5   Win (5/2/4/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 7 1 0 $7.98  
CD-6   Win (5/8/9/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 1 $3.52 $3.52  
CD-7   Win (5/3/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8 1 1 $7.86 $7.86  
CD-8   Win (4/11/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8 1 1 $29.44 $29.44 21.44

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   09/26/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 5:00
See original race card.
:22 :453 :574     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GERLIN'S EMPIRE 7 6 6 4   3 1¼ (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 43% 1.30 3.21 W
ITWILLBEFUN 1 8 4 31   2½ 2¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 2.94  
WISCONSIN GAL 3 4 1½ 11   1½ 3¾ (mcentee pau)BEALMEAR C 112 4.00 28% 2.60 4.78 S
GOOD TEMPER 6 7 9 8   67 4 (walden william)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 5.47  
EZ TREE ATES 2 9 84 55   56 5 (casse w)ORTIZ L 119 6.00 4.53  
CAROLINA SMOKESHOW 4 3 2½ 21   4 611 (beckman whit)GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00 5% 19.00 20.27  
10  MACLEAN'S LULLABY 9 1 31 6   711 722 (matejka pavel)MURGIA A 119 3.00 14.82  
MY CHERRY PIE 8 5 73 7   814 833 (lukas wayne)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00 31.68  
TECTONIC 5 2 5 9   917½ 940 (wojczynski justin)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00 12.80  
SCR  MY BOSSY LADY               (mckeever andr)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00    
 
CD-2   09/26/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:29
See original race card.
:244 :493 1:134 1:381   1:44   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CLASSY'N CONNECTED 1 5 63 6 6 52 1 (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 1.43  
CHA CHA CHUKKA 7 4 42 5 32 3½ 2 (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 5% 18.50 10.55 P
LOW COUNTRY MAGIC 6 2 21 21 2½ 2½ 3 (correas ignacio )ORTIZ L 118 4.00 2.46  
SACRED SAINT 5 1 11 11 1½ 1½ 4 (scherer marianne)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00 49.28  
WITS AND WAGERS 2 6 5 42 5 63 5 (oliver victo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.00 9.49  
EAST SHORE 3 3 3 31 42 41 6 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 122 2.00 64% 0.60 2.99  
STERLING LUCK 4 7 7 7 75 7 718¾ (forster gran)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 10.00 5% 19.00 15.75  
 
CD-3   09/26/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:58
See original race card.
:214 :45 :571     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AWESOME AARON 1 7 5 5   2½ 12 (green troy)TORRES A 121 8.00 7% 13.60 5.17 W
NABOKOV 3 3 2½ 3.2   1½ 22 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 123 6.00 6% 14.50 9.73 P
PRINCIP 5 5 7 6   43 3 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 6.00 14.86  
G T FIVE HUNDRED 8 1 4¾ 4   6 49 (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00 21.53  
ZOOMBIE 6 8 8 7   7 511½ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00 3.85  
FIT TO FLY 2 6 1½ 1nk   53 612¾ (rivelli larr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 3.50 4.98  
I GOT NO MUNNY 7 4 6 8   8 719¾ (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 63% 0.60 1.43  
GLOBAL STAGE 4 2 3½ 2nk   3 820¾ (cano mun)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 8.00 5% 19.00 14.27  
 
CD-4   09/26/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 6:27
See original race card.
:222 :452 :572     1:04   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PERFECT MAGIC 6 2 2nk 1nk   12 12 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 3.00 10.10  
TROUBLESHOOTING 1 1 1nk 2nk   22 22 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 48% 1.10 5.37 P
KRAKEN 2 8 811 810¼   57 3 (orseno f)ORTIZ L 119 8.00 5% 19.00 5.64 S
ZAT'S THE ONE 4 3 4 4   3 4 (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 5% 19.00 5.79  
SPICED UP 8 6 31 31   4 5 (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 3.69  
RIDDLER 3 5 66 6   68 6 (asmussen ste)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 2.87  
SAVING HEART 5 7 710 710   810½ 7 (morse l)BEJARANO R 119 5.00 4.65  
GOLDEN GOAL 7 4 54 55   7 811¾ (demeritte l)BEALMEAR C 112 20.00 5% 19.00 50.27  
SCR  PRETTY CAPABLE               (amoss thoma)TORRES A 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-5   09/26/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
See original race card.
:23 :461 1:104     1:171   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ARTHUR 7 2 3 32   21 11 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 4.00 2.99  
LEND IT TEWMEY 4 3 1nk 1½   11 21 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 121 4.50 7% 13.40 8.38 P
TAP THE CANDY 3 8 5 54   44 3 (hancock a)ORTIZ L 121 6.00 8.18  
REWIRE 2 5 4 4   5 4 (shorter aaron)VAZQUEZ A 121 3.50 8% 12.30 3.27  
HASKELLED 5 9 66 65   6 57 (van thomas)MACHADO LUAN 121 3.00 64% 0.60 4.10  
CLOUD WITHOUT REIN 8 1 2nk 2½   3 68 (barnett bobby )BARBOSA CARLOS 121 5.00 4.85  
REDHILL 1 6 911¼ 912½   79 710¼ (pittman bon)BEALMEAR C 114 30.00 17.92  
EL MIC TIESUN 6 4 8 810½   911 812¾ (mcgoey monica)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 30.00 53.18  
MERLOTTI 9 7 7 76   89 912¾ (wainwright )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00 5% 19.00 12.37  
 
CD-6   09/26/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 7:25
See original race card.
:221 :454 :573     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BOOK'EM 5 2 1½ 11   14 1 (calhoun william )ORTIZ L 119 3.50 28% 2.60 0.76 W
FLASH WEAR 8 1 42 32   24 2 (vance thoma)TORRES A 119 4.00 23% 3.40 17.17 P
10  KEYANA 10 7 3 21   35 3 (leitch dan)RODRIGUEZ A 119 12.00 3.22  
DARK THIRTY (IRE) 1 10 8 7   5 412¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 18.68  
SPLIT SUCCESS 6 11 10 99   711 513¾ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 24.12  
HER HOLY NAME 2 8 5 5   4 614 (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 119 4.50 9.15  
GLOBAL QUEEN 3 9 96 8   812 716 (tomlinson mic)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00 74.35  
TEGWAR 4 6 64 6   912½ 818¼ (wainwright )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00 5% 19.00 40.99  
VERY COSMOPOLITAN 9 3 2½ 4   610½ 920 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 23% 3.40 8.95  
BOUJI IS A WORD 7 5 11 1115½   1019½ 1032½ (schlenk k)HUGHES CARLY 119 30.00 70.74  
11  LOCAL ELECTION 11 4 7 1011½   1120½ 1135¼ (brennan terr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 12.00 77.07  
 
CD-7   09/26/2024 6600ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
See original race card.
:24 :483 1:134 1:382   2:022   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SAN SIRO 8 2nk 4 4 11 1 1 (walsh p)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 10% 8.60 2.93 W
NATIVE SHAMAN 6 6 6 73 5 2 2 (arnold r)LANERIE J 118 4.00 5.01  
WINSTON WOLF 5 4¾ 5 52 73 55 3 (amoss thoma)TORRES A 122 3.00 31% 2.30 3.38 S
HARLEEZY 2 7 73 6 6 76 47 (hartlage g)ELLIOTT JANE 122 15.00 20.79  
GORILLA TREK 1 5 31 31 31 34 57 (bauer philip )CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00 17.27  
FIRST PLAYER 3 3½ 1½ 1½ 21 45 69 (mcgee paul)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 27% 2.70 3.52  
MANDATORY MEETING 4 1nk 2½ 2½ 4 6 711 (blair jordan)TORRES A 120 20.00 5% 19.00 17.42  
DAILY GRIND 7 8 8 8 8 811 835¼ (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 120 5.00 4.33  
 
CD-8   09/26/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
See original race card.
:234 :47 1:111 1:233   1:36   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FORGE IN FIRE 7 3 1½ 3½ 12 1 12 (bahena ismae)CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00 5% 19.00 13.72 W
CAT ON TIME 2 6 8 9 6 2 22 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 122 12.00 5.15  
SAGITTARIUS 6 8 42 52 4 35 3 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 12.00 5% 18.50 7.48 S
11  GOD OF WINE 9 5 31 4 33 46 4 (roberson den)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 12.00 27% 2.70 6.41  
MO RHODES 5 9 7 7 76 57 5 (amoss m)CHUAN MARTIN 118 5.00 2.31  
PATCH O'BRIEN 1 4 9 8 86 7 610 (garcia genaro)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 8.00 7.19  
CRUSADING 8 7 52 6 55 68 710½ (brennan terr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 20.00 30.33  
MR MCGREGOR 3 1 6 1nk 22 89 819½ (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 3.00 46% 1.20 4.27  
TWIRLING TROILLET 4 2 2½ 2nk 98 914 921¾ (king l)ELLIOTT JANE 118 12.00 10.94  
SCR  ANDY'S CANDY               (gibson dewa)TORRES A 118 10.00    
SCR  GAME KEEPER               (reed r)TORRES A 122 2.50    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.