Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - September 26, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (8/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/4/5)-(8/4/10/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/5)-(8/4/10/2/5)-(8/4/10/2/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (8/4/5)-(3/7/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/4/5)-(3/7/4)-(7/1/3/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (3/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/4)-(3/1/7/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/7/4)-(3/1/7/4)-(3/1/7/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/7/4)-(7/1/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/7/4)-(7/1/3/4)-(2/1/3/5/8) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (7/1/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/3/4)-(7/1/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/1/3/4)-(7/1/3/4)-(7/1/3/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/1/3/4)-(2/1/3/5/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/1/3/4)-(2/1/3/5/8)-(5/2/4/9) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-4   WIN (2/1/3/5/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/1/3/5/8)-(2/1/3/5/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/1/3/5/8)-(2/1/3/5/8)-(2/1/3/5/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/1/3/5/8)-(5/2/4/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/1/3/5/8)-(5/2/4/9)-(5/8/9/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-5   WIN (5/2/4/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/2/4/9)-(5/2/4/8/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/2/4/9)-(5/2/4/8/9)-(5/2/4/8/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/2/4/9)-(5/8/9/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/2/4/9)-(5/8/9/4)-(5/3/8/4) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-6   WIN (5/8/9/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/8/9/4)-(5/8/9/4/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/8/9/4)-(5/8/9/4/2)-(5/8/9/4/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/8/9/4)-(5/3/8/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/8/9/4)-(5/3/8/4)-(4/11/7/8) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-7   WIN (5/3/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/3/8/4)-(5/3/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/3/8/4)-(5/3/8/4)-(5/3/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/3/8/4)-(4/11/7/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-8   WIN (4/11/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/11/7/8)-(4/11/7/6/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/11/7/8)-(4/11/7/6/8)-(4/11/7/6/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/26/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ITWILLBEFUN         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of TAKE CHARGE by TAKE ME OUT (IRE))
2  EZ TREE ATES         (casse w)ORTIZ L 119 6.00 ★    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of IRISH JASPER by FIRST DEFENCE)
SCR  MY BOSSY LADY         (mckeever an)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of AFSANEH by SCAT DADDY)
4  WISCONSIN GAL Sep15 Sep04 Aug10     (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 112 4.00 28% 2.60    
  (by ARMY MULE out of DREAM SEQUENCE by SMILE)
5  CAROLINA SMOKESHOW         (beckman wh)GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of SUNDAY DRIVER by QUALITY ROAD)
6  TECTONIC         (wojczynski justin)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of EURASIA by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
7  GOOD TEMPER         (walden william)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of RACHEL WALL by BLAME)
8  GERLIN'S EMPIRE Aug07 Jul13       (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 43% 1.30    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of FRENCH PRESS by CURLIN)
9  MY CHERRY PIE Aug25         (lukas wayne)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of TABLE JUMPER by JUMP START)
10  MACLEAN'S LULLABY Sep15 May10       (matejka pavel)MURGIA A 119 3.00 ★    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of JOYFUL HOLIDAY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
 
CD-2   09/26/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CLASSY'N CONNECTED Aug05 Jun16 Apr20 Mar28 Feb21 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 ★    
2  WITS AND WAGERS Jul22 Jun15 Nov12 Oct18 Sep03 (oliver vic)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.00    
3  EAST SHORE Aug24 Jul22 Nov12 Oct18 Jul22 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 122 2.00 64% 0.60    
4  STERLING LUCK Aug24 Jul25 Jun05 Feb13 Jan19 (forster gr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  SACRED SAINT Aug19 Feb04 Jan13 Jan01 Nov18 (scherer marian)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
6  LOW COUNTRY MAGIC Jul27 Jun15 May30 Apr17   (correas ignaci)ORTIZ L 118 4.00    
7  CHA CHA CHUKKA Aug19 Jul14 Jun06 Dec28 Nov04 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 5% 18.50    
 
CD-3   09/26/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AWESOME AARON Aug18 Aug03 Jun14 May27 Apr18 (green tro)TORRES A 121 8.00 7% 13.60    
2  FIT TO FLY Aug29 Aug01 Jul07 Oct13 Aug16 (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 3.50    
3  NABOKOV Aug28 Jul27 Jul04 Jun08 May03 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 123 6.00 6% 14.50    
4  GLOBAL STAGE Sep14 Aug03 Jul15 Jun06 Apr30 (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  PRINCIP Jul15 Jun27 Jun02 Apr20 Mar03 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 6.00    
6  ZOOMBIE Jul20 Jun22 May25 Apr27 Dec15 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00    
7  I GOT NO MUNNY Aug18 Jul13 Mar12 Feb11 Jan15 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 63% 0.60    
8  G T FIVE HUNDRED Sep15 Aug12 Jun28 Jun12 May12 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00    
 
CD-4   09/26/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PRETTY CAPABLE         (amoss tho)TORRES A 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPIT out of LOVE ON THE RUN by EMPIRE MAKER)
2  TROUBLESHOOTING         (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 48% 1.10    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of INTO TROUBLE by INTO MISCHIEF)
3  KRAKEN         (orseno joseph )ORTIZ L 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of INTENTONSEDUCTION by STREET SENSE)
4  RIDDLER         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of PROUD INDIAN by INDIAN CHARLIE)
5  ZAT'S THE ONE         (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of HOLDERS SEASON by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
6  SAVING HEART         (morse l)BEJARANO R 119 5.00    
  (by ARMY MULE out of SPRINGSIDE by AWESOME AGAIN)
7  PERFECT MAGIC Aug31 Aug11       (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 3.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of YOU ASKED by YES IT'S TRUE)
8  GOLDEN GOAL         (demeritte)BEALMEAR C 112 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GAME WINNER out of KAT ZIPPITY by CITY ZIP)
9  SPICED UP         (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of CARDAMON by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
 
CD-5   09/26/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REDHILL Sep13 Jul28 Jul04 Jun12 May01 (pittman bonn)CALLEJA ANDRES 114 30.00    
2  REWIRE Sep03 Aug10 Jul15 Jan28 Nov18 (shorter aaron)VAZQUEZ A 121 3.50 8% 12.30    
3  TAP THE CANDY Aug26 Jul28 Jul05 Sep15 Sep09 (hancock a)ORTIZ L 121 6.00    
4  LEND IT TEWMEY Sep03 Jul27 Jul05 Jun14 May19 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 121 4.50 7% 13.40    
5  HASKELLED Aug30 Aug22 Jul28 Jul20 May25 (van thoma)MACHADO LUAN 121 3.00 64% 0.60    
6  EL MIC TIESUN Aug24 Aug02 Jun20 May29 May05 (mcgoey monica)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 30.00    
7  ARTHUR Sep18 Aug17 Jul29 Jun26 Sep02 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 4.00    
8  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN Aug19 Jul03 May30 May11 Mar03 (barnett bobb)BARBOSA CARLOS 121 5.00 ★    
9  MERLOTTI Sep08 Aug12 Jul15 Jun23 Jun09 (wainwrigh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-6   09/26/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DARK THIRTY (IRE)         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of SUNNYSIDE GAL by SUNGOLD)
2  HER HOLY NAME Apr26 Apr11       (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 119 4.50 ★    
  (by KANTHAROS out of I'LL TAKE THAT by WILL TAKE CHARGE)
3  GLOBAL QUEEN         (tomlinson m)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of QUEENAMEINA by READ THE FOOTNOTES)
4  TEGWAR Aug25 Jul09       (wainwrigh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of MARQUEE CAL GAL by COWBOY CAL)
5  BOOK'EM Jun16         (calhoun willia)ORTIZ L 119 3.50 28% 2.60    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of FLUMMOXED by OUTWORK)
6  SPLIT SUCCESS         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00    
  (by DIVISIDERO out of ANNIE AND CAROLINE by VERRAZANO)
7  BOUJI IS A WORD         (schlenk k)HUGHES CARLY 119 30.00    
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of SILVER THREADS by UNION RAGS)
8  FLASH WEAR Jun22         (vance tho)TORRES A 119 4.00 23% 3.40    
  (by INSTILLED REGARD out of NOTHING TO WEAR by MALIBU MOON)
9  VERY COSMOPOLITAN Aug30         (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 23% 3.40    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of T'AS D'BEAUX YEUX by DESERT PARTY)
10  KEYANA May02         (leitch d)RODRIGUEZ A 119 12.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of HONORABLE MEMORY by HONOR CODE)
11  LOCAL ELECTION         (brennan te)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 12.00    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of SWEETIE DARLING by BERNARDINI)
 
CD-7   09/26/2024 6600ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GORILLA TREK Sep01 Jul20 May11 Apr13 Mar02 (bauer phili)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00    
2  HARLEEZY Sep12 Aug18 May27 May02 Apr12 (hartlage gary )ELLIOTT JANE 122 15.00    
3  FIRST PLAYER Aug18 Jun23 Jun06 Oct09 Sep15 (mcgee paul)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 27% 2.70    
4  MANDATORY MEETING Aug13 Nov25 Oct12 Sep02   (blair jordan)TORRES A 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  WINSTON WOLF Aug18 Jul21 Jun23 May27 May09 (amoss tho)TORRES A 122 3.00 31% 2.30    
6  NATIVE SHAMAN Aug24 Jul29 Jun09 May15   (arnold r)LANERIE J 118 4.00    
7  DAILY GRIND Sep02 Aug15 Jul12 Jun08 May18 (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 120 5.00    
8  SAN SIRO Aug24 Mar09 Jan20 Dec23 Nov25 (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 10% 8.60    
 
CD-8   09/26/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PATCH O'BRIEN Sep10 Jul13 Jun08 Apr25 Mar29 (garcia genar)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 8.00    
2  CAT ON TIME Aug20 Jul18 Jun15 May27 Apr30 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 122 12.00    
SCR  GAME KEEPER May12 Apr28 Apr13 Mar29 Mar07 (reed r)TORRES A 122 2.50    
4  MR MCGREGOR Sep14 Aug26 Jul21 Jun20 Oct12 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 3.00 46% 1.20    
5  TWIRLING TROILLET Aug26 Aug10 Jul05 Jun23 Jun13 (king l)ELLIOTT JANE 118 12.00    
6  MO RHODES Aug24 Jul28 Jun29 May31 Apr24 (amoss m)CHUAN MARTIN 118 5.00 ★    
7  SAGITTARIUS Jul29 Jun28 May18 Apr13 Mar15 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 12.00 5% 18.50    
8  FORGE IN FIRE Aug26 Aug05 May25 May01 Apr14 (bahena ism)CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
9  CRUSADING Sep13 Aug17 Aug07 Jul18 Jan01 (brennan te)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 20.00    
SCR  ANDY'S CANDY Aug17 Jul15 Apr28 Mar01 Feb11 (gibson de)TORRES A 118 10.00    
11  GOD OF WINE Aug31 Aug05 Jul05 May25 May01 (roberson d)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 12.00 27% 2.70    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.