Handicappers' Race Results
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Churchill Downs
Sunday - September 15, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
CD-1   Win (2/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $4.40 $4.40  
CD-2   Win (7/8/1/3/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 3 1 1 $11.86 $11.86 1.86
CD-3   Win (10/3/6/12) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 0 $10.12  
CD-4   Win (7/8/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 7 1 1 $8.74 $8.74 0.74
CD-5   Win (7/11/10/3/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 4 1 0 $16.46  
CD-6   Win (2/9) 2 $2.00 $4.00 2 1 1 $3.42 $3.42  
CD-7   Win (8/2/3/11/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 7 1 0 $10.16  
CD-8   Win (4/3/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 1 $13.92 $13.92 5.92
CD-9   Win (5/8/12/9/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 9 1 1 $22.56 $22.56 12.56
CD-10   Win (10/5/1/4/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 4 1 1 $16.54 $16.54 6.54
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   09/15/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:23 :453 1:101     1:164   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  GREEK HEIRESS 1 5 41 31½   1½ 13½ (schultz lin)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 4.50 55% 0.80 1.20 W
8  ROSE PALACE 6 2 31 2nk   2½ 23½ (desormeaux j)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 5.00 4.13  
7  STAND BY YOU 5 4 61¾ 53½   54½ 34 (watkins jame)CORRALES GERARDO 121 5.00 12% 7.00 3.73 S
5  ABITIBI 3 1 2½ 42½   33 45¼ (esquiv)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 121 6.00 5% 19.00 21.50  
3  MERCY WARREN 2 6 1½ 1nk   43 515¼ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 2.58  
6  ARELLA STAR 4 3 51¼ 68   612½ 623½ (orantes r)NAVAS YOEL 121 15.00 33.35  
SCR  IN MY OPINION               (estvanko r)RODRIGUEZ A 121 20.00    
SCR  SUMMER OF MISCHIEF               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.50    
 
CD-2   09/15/2024 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:232 :472 1:121 1:371   1:433   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  D'ORO UNBRIDLED 3 1 42 51¾ 52¼ 22 1hd (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 5.00 8% 12.20 4.93 W
8  EGLISE 8 5 31½ 41½ 3.2 12 2hd (lynch a)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.50 26% 2.80 2.76 P
7  DUKE OF DUVAL 7 9 96½ 85¾ 73¾ 56½ 35¾ (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 35% 1.90 2.75 S
1  BOURBON SOCIETY 1 8 75 75¼ 84 88 45¾ (wilkes r)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 4.00 11% 8.30 4.41  
2  MOMENTUM FILES 2 4 1½ 1½ 1nk 33½ 56¾ (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 124 12.00 5% 19.00 13.00  
9  CAN'T STOP WILLIS 9 7 63 63¾ 63¼ 67 67 (milligan ed)TORRES A 120 20.00 44.34  
5  MAGNIFICENT RAGS 5 2 85½ 95¾ 96½ 98¼ 77¾ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 120 6.00 7.83  
4  READY AS EVER 4 6 53 31½ 42¼ 78 815 (mott i)TORRES A 120 10.00 14.95  
6  HE'S A JOKER 6 3 2½ 2½ 2nk 45½ 915¼ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00 16.21  
 
CD-3   09/15/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:213 :45 :572     1:101   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  ZECA DIABO 2 5 63½ 64¾   32 14½ (caramori eduardo)MACHADO LUAN 124 4.50 4.06  
6  MISCHIEVOUS M 6 4 1½ 12   12 24½ (vance thomas)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00 5% 19.00 13.75 P
4  CHUN MONEY 4 1 31 43½   42½ 35¼ (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00 ★ 5.52 S
12  NOBLE EAGLE 12 11 75½ 75¾   75¼ 45½ (beckman whit)GEROUX FLORENT 121 12.00 5% 19.00 16.53  
11  SKELLY ROAD 11 3 52 54½   64¾ 56¾ (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 5.00 5.92  
3  NOT SO HOLY 3 6 41½ 32   52¾ 68 (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 5.00 28% 2.60 10.66  
10  REDEPOSIT 10 2 2½ 22   22 78½ (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 41% 1.50 2.44  
7  LINE OF SCRIMMAGE 7 12 1210¾ 912¾   87¼ 89¼ (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 6.95  
9  MACHO VILLA 9 9 118¾ 810¾   910¾ 912½ (lukas wayne)TORRES A 124 20.00 71.62  
8  NATIONAL ECLIPSE 8 7 108¼ 1113¼   1013¼ 1013¼ (williamson b)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 30.00 74.93  
5  HIGH FIVE SY 5 8 95¾ 1213¾   1113¾ 1114¼ (wismer gle)SANTANA JR 121 30.00 77.48  
1  CONSTITUTIONREVIEW 1 10 85½ 1012¾   1216¼ 1221 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 12.00 18.83  
SCR  GENERAL ISSUE (FR)               (cook brian)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00    
SCR  IMPERIO               (casse norm)SANTANA JR 121 8.00    
 
CD-4   09/15/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:221 :452 :572     1:102   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  FAN THE FIRE 6 6 2nk 2nk   1½ 12¼ (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.00 37% 1.70 3.37 W
2  UPSTRIKER 2 1 1nk 1nk   2½ 22¼ (vanden b)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 3.50 6.37  
6  SOARING BIRD 5 4 41½ 42   42½ 32½ (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 4.00 14% 5.90 3.26 S
8  BEST OF GREELEY 7 3 3½ 3½   31½ 43 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 6.00 23% 3.30 2.26  
3  JAMMING EDDY 3 2 52 53½   54 54 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 121 6.00 7.46  
1  ONCOMING TRAIN 1 5 62¼ 76   77 66 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 10.00 11.81  
4  ONE FOR RICHIE 4 7 73¼ 65   66½ 78 (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 121 10.00 5% 19.00 8.00  
SCR  MAN ON THE MOON               (vance thomas)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 12.00    
SCR  ROBO MAN               (holden darrag)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 12.00    
 
CD-5   09/15/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:223 :453 :58     1:042   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  KENTUCKY SMOKESHOW 4 10 42 31½   32 11¼ (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 7.23  
9  WISCONSIN GAL 9 8 52 42   43 21¼ (mcentee pau)BEALMEAR C 112 10.00 5% 19.00 29.83 P
7  HALEAKALA (IRE) 7 1 1½ 2nk   2nk 31¼ (calhoun will)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 4.00 39% 1.60 4.58 S
8  SWEET MUSIC (CHI) 8 3 2½ 1nk   1nk 41¾ (catalano w)RODRIGUEZ A 119 10.00 16.13  
11  HEAR THE QUEEN 11 12 63½ 64   53¼ 52¾ (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 25% 3.10 2.74  
3  MISS TIFEYE 3 2 31½ 52½   63¾ 65¾ (baker james)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00 6% 15.90 44.09  
10  MACLEAN'S LULLABY 10 7 105¾ 86¼   77¼ 76½ (matejka pavel)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00 10% 8.70 7.71  
1  FEARLESS LADY 1 4 95¼ 108¼   88¾ 87¼ (moquett ronald )ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 15.00 39.99  
2  DINAHS GIRL 2 5 115¾ 119¼   1010¼ 97¾ (hartman chr)TORRES A 119 10.00 3.62  
6  ROYALEWITHCHEESE 6 6 74 76   99¾ 1016 (hiles a)TORRES A 119 20.00 64.81  
5  D'ARGENTO BOLT 5 9 126¼ 129½   1112¾ 1127½ (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 119 10.00 21.57  
12  DIVINEINTERVENTION 12 11 85 96¼   1213¾ 1235¾ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 7.52  
 
CD-6   09/15/2024 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:234 :48 1:124 1:381   1:444   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  SUNDAY DISRUPTOR 2 5 42½ 42 2½ 13 11¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 41% 1.40 0.71 W
4  MARGOT'S ANGEL 4 2 21½ 31½ 42½ 23 21¼ (mott i)ORTIZ L 119 4.00 ★ 3.39 P
5  DAWN AFTER DAWN 5 9 98 88 77 46 31½ (walsh p)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00 ★ 18.02 S
9  ALONGCOMESAWOMAN 9 4 31½ 2½ 1½ 33 47¾ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 33% 2.00 6.67  
3  RUNNIN N GUNNIN 3 6 65½ 77½ 88 810¼ 510 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 8.00 19.92  
6  RANDO 6 3 55 56½ 56 79¾ 610 (stall m)ELLIOTT JANE 119 12.00 54.03  
10  TRADING SECRETS 10 8 77 67 66½ 69½ 714 (lukas wayne)TORRES A 119 15.00 31.34  
8  CHAMPAGNE NIGHTS 8 10 1010½ 1011½ 912½ 914¼ 816¼ (wilkes r)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 32.95  
7  ALEDEAN 7 1 11½ 1½ 32 58 916½ (amoss thomas)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 ★ 11.73  
1  RITA'S LEGACY 1 7 87½ 910½ 1013 1022¼ 1033¾ (lukas wayne)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00 70.60  
 
CD-7   09/15/2024 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:23 :461 1:101     1:223   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  BENEDETTA 7 3 1½ 1nk   13 12¾ (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 4.08  
2  HUNTRESS FOR HIRE 2 5 83½ 63¼   43¼ 22¾ (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00 23% 3.30 3.99 P
1  LEMON MUFFIN 1 7 95 95¼   55¼ 34¼ (lukas wayne)TORRES A 118 3.50 5.60  
10  LIGHTNING MYQUEEN 10 2 2½ 2nk   33 44¾ (mcpeek kenn)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00 33.14  
4  COME AS YOU ARE 4 11 129½ 1210¾   98½ 56¾ (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00 11.14  
6  HARBOR SPRINGS 6 9 106 105¾   88¼ 67¼ (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 118 20.00 5% 19.00 19.58  
8  HEY OLIVIA 8 1 51¾ 51¾   23 77¼ (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 120 4.00 31% 2.20 7.97  
5  DETERMINED CANDY 5 4 31½ 31   75¾ 87½ (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 15.61  
3  SWEET GAL OF MINE 3 6 41½ 41½   65¼ 911¼ (mccarthy mic)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00 14% 6.10 8.64  
9  STEAMPUNK 9 10 117 117¼   1010½ 1012 (davis chris)TORRES A 118 20.00 12.66  
11  LA FORET 11 12 73¼ 73¾   1113½ 1118¾ (catalano m)VAZQUEZ A 120 12.00 5% 19.00 17.24  
13  MISS ROCKETTE 12 8 63¼ 84¼   1221½ 1245 (mott riley)ORTIZ L 118 5.00 8.96  
SCR  CURLIN'S MAGIC               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
SCR  MUGEN               (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 3.50    
SCR  RED RIVER MAGIC               (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 8.00    
SCR  SISTER KISSES               (garcia genaro)TORRES A 121 15.00    
 
CD-8   09/15/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 F PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:22 :453 :572     1:091   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  MINK'S PALACE 3 6 61¾ 51¾   2½ 1nk (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 23% 3.40 5.96 W
7  RIPERTON 7 2 31 1nk   1½ 2nk (lobo h)ROMAN A 120 15.00 20.88  
1  V V'S DREAM 1 4 51¼ 41¾   31½ 32½ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.00 16% 5.40 1.90 S
2  SILVER ROSE 2 5 41¼ 62¼   52½ 42¾ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 6.09  
6  MS. TART 6 7 72¾ 72¾   64½ 56¼ (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00 5% 19.00 20.84  
4  PRINCESS MADISON 4 3 2nk 2nk   42½ 66¾ (bauer a)ORTIZ L 120 2.50 33% 2.00 1.11  
5  LET THEM WATCH 5 1 1nk 3.2   74¾ 711 (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 118 20.00 48.92  
SCR  DOROTHY CROWFOOT               (rivelli larr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 20.00    
 
CD-9   09/15/2024 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:54
See original race card.
:233 :483 1:132 1:373   1:50   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  HURRY HURRY 9 12 1213¾ 1211 117¼ 31½ 1¼ (sims p)SAEZ LUIS 122 10.00 5% 19.00 10.28 W
10  MACKMAN 10 6 21 21 2½ 2nk 2¼ (shirer matt)TORRES A 122 30.00 55.80  
5  BATON ROUGE (IRE) 5 4 11 11 1½ 1nk 31½ (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 124 3.00 59% 0.70 3.84 S
2  LAMBETH 2 2 31 32 31½ 41¾ 41½ (mott i)TORRES A 120 15.00 42.89  
11  KING KUMBALAY 11 9 96¼ 95½ 84¾ 74¾ 53½ (correas ignacio )ORTIZ L 122 6.00 11.48  
8  CREATIVE MINISTER 8 1 65 64 52 53¾ 63¾ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00 8% 11.60 6.07  
1  BEN FRANKLIN 1 5 76 85 95¼ 96½ 74¾ (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 122 8.00 5.40  
3  EVENT DETAIL 3 10 119¾ 118½ 129¼ 107½ 85 (walden william)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00 26.64  
12  GAME WARDEN 12 7 43 42½ 42 85 96½ (casse norm)SANTANA JR 126 3.50 7% 14.30 3.20  
7  BOURBON RESOLVE 7 3 53½ 53½ 72¾ 64¾ 108 (wilkes r)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 10.00 9.13  
4  SINGLE DOT YAHT 4 8 86¼ 74½ 62½ 118 118 (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00 8.24  
6  EXPENSIVE CUT 6 11 108¼ 106½ 106¾ 129 129½ (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 122 20.00 5% 19.00 53.50  
 
CD-10   09/15/2024 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:25
See original race card.
:211 :443 :563     1:084   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  THOUGHTTHATCOUNTS 3 4 55¼ 52   21 12½ (brafford michell)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00 7% 13.30 7.27 W
12  B SUDD 9 1 45 1½   11 22½ (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.00 2.11  
11  MORUNNING 8 5 35 41½   32½ 34½ (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00 7% 13.50 4.83 S
1  AL AMEEQ 1 3 23 2½   42½ 47¼ (mckeever andr)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00 10% 9.10 6.56  
10  JUNIOR BUG 7 7 911¾ 97½   56 57¼ (van thoma)GEROUX FLORENT 121 3.50 31% 2.20 6.60  
5  CATHEDRAL BEACH 4 6 78¾ 87   67 68½ (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 10.00 15% 5.90 3.36  
6  CHRYSO ALOGO 5 8 89¼ 65   79½ 722 (vasquez german )CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00 31.18  
3  BRIO 2 9 66¾ 76½   913½ 826¼ (medina robert)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 30.00 52.34  
7  G T FIVE HUNDRED 6 2 13 3½   810 928½ (cano muno)TORRES A 121 20.00 16.54  
SCR  B FIFTY TWO               (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
SCR  BEBEDOURO               (lobo h)ROMAN A 118 15.00    
SCR  HOLIDAY HOUSE               (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00    
SCR  NORTHERN CHILL               (blair jorda)TORRES A 118 6.00    
SCR  WILLIE BIRD               (rivelli larr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.