Handicappers' Racing Form

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Churchill Downs
Sunday - September 15, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (2/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-2   Win (7/8/1/3/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00
CD-3   Win (10/3/6/12) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-4   Win (7/8/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-5   Win (7/11/10/3/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00
CD-6   Win (2/9) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-7   Win (8/2/3/11/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00
CD-8   Win (4/3/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-9   Win (5/8/12/9/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00
CD-10   Win (10/5/1/4/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
CD-1   09/15/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SUMMER OF MISCHIEF Jun14 May25 May03 Apr06 Mar02 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.50    
GREEK HEIRESS Jun08 May11 Apr19 Mar21 Feb17 (schultz lin)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 4.50 55% 0.80    
MERCY WARREN Jun06 Feb09 Jan13 Dec23 Nov04 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50    
SCR  IN MY OPINION Sep05 Jul27 Mar28 Feb17 Dec17 (estvanko r)RODRIGUEZ A 121 20.00    
ABITIBI Aug10 Jul04 Jun06 May17 Apr19 (esquiv)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 121 6.00 5% 19.00    
ARELLA STAR Aug28 Aug08 Dec09 Oct08 Sep18 (orantes r)NAVAS YOEL 121 15.00    
STAND BY YOU Aug12 Jul13 May25 Apr19 Sep06 (watkins jame)CORRALES GERARDO 121 5.00 12% 7.00    
ROSE PALACE Jun26 Jun06 May17 Apr30 Mar02 (desormeaux j)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 5.00    
 
CD-2   09/15/2024 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BOURBON SOCIETY Aug03 Jul14 Jun23 Apr06 Mar16 (wilkes r)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 4.00 11% 8.30    
MOMENTUM FILES Aug18         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
D'ORO UNBRIDLED Jul27 May04 Apr06     (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 5.00 8% 12.20    
READY AS EVER Aug10 Jul13       (mott i)TORRES A 120 10.00    
MAGNIFICENT RAGS Aug03 Jun21       (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 120 6.00    
HE'S A JOKER Aug24 Jun21 May27     (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00    
DUKE OF DUVAL Aug24 Jul07 Mar15     (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 35% 1.90    
EGLISE Aug18 Jul28       (lynch a)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.50 26% 2.80    
CAN'T STOP WILLIS Aug24         (milligan ed)TORRES A 120 20.00    
 
CD-3   09/15/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CONSTITUTIONREVIEW         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 12.00    
ZECA DIABO Aug29 Aug01 Jul13 Jun16 Apr13 (caramori eduardo)MACHADO LUAN 124 4.50    
NOT SO HOLY Aug10 Jul06 Jun05 Aug19   (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 5.00 28% 2.60    
CHUN MONEY Mar07 Dec31 Dec08 Nov12   (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00    
HIGH FIVE SY Aug29 Jul28       (wismer gle)SANTANA JR 121 30.00    
MISCHIEVOUS M Jun30 Jun01 May04 Mar23   (vance thomas)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
LINE OF SCRIMMAGE Aug24         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00    
NATIONAL ECLIPSE Jan20         (williamson b)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 30.00    
MACHO VILLA Aug25 Feb10 Jan06 Aug20 Aug04 (lukas wayne)TORRES A 124 20.00    
10  REDEPOSIT Feb08 Dec16 Nov26 Oct20   (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 41% 1.50    
11  SKELLY ROAD Oct22         (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 5.00    
12  NOBLE EAGLE Jul28 Mar20 Feb13     (beckman whit)GEROUX FLORENT 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  IMPERIO         (casse norm)SANTANA JR 121 8.00    
SCR  GENERAL ISSUE (FR) Nov30 Nov09       (cook brian)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00    
 
CD-4   09/15/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ONCOMING TRAIN Aug10 Jun22 May18 Apr07 Jan15 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 10.00    
UPSTRIKER Aug26 Jul06 May19 May03 Mar22 (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 123 3.50    
JAMMING EDDY Aug11 Jun15 May26 May11 Mar10 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 121 6.00    
ONE FOR RICHIE May16 Apr27 Apr12 Feb15 Feb01 (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ROBO MAN Aug20 Aug08 Jul13 Jun12 May16 (holden darrag)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 12.00    
SOARING BIRD Aug12 Jun26 Jun12 May10 Apr07 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 4.00 14% 5.90    
FAN THE FIRE Aug12 Jun26 Jun06 May18 May01 (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.00 37% 1.70    
BEST OF GREELEY Jan05 Nov16 Nov01 Sep25 Sep05 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 6.00 23% 3.30    
SCR  MAN ON THE MOON Jul06 May19 Apr20 Apr05 Mar15 (vance thomas)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 12.00    
 
CD-5   09/15/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 2:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FEARLESS LADY         (moquett ronald )ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 15.00    
DINAHS GIRL         (hartman chr)TORRES A 119 10.00    
MISS TIFEYE Aug25         (baker james)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00 6% 15.90    
KENTUCKY SMOKESHOW         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
D'ARGENTO BOLT         (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 119 10.00    
ROYALEWITHCHEESE         (hiles a)TORRES A 119 20.00    
HALEAKALA (IRE) Aug10         (calhoun will)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 4.00 39% 1.60    
SWEET MUSIC (CHI) Aug29         (catalano w)RODRIGUEZ A 119 10.00    
WISCONSIN GAL Sep04 Aug10       (mcentee pau)BEALMEAR C 112 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  MACLEAN'S LULLABY May10         (matejka pavel)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00 10% 8.70    
11  HEAR THE QUEEN         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 25% 3.10    
12  DIVINEINTERVENTION         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
 
CD-6   09/15/2024 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:18
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RITA'S LEGACY Aug03 Jul04       (lukas wayne)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00    
SUNDAY DISRUPTOR Aug26 Aug03       (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 41% 1.40    
RUNNIN N GUNNIN Jul29         (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 8.00    
MARGOT'S ANGEL Jul28         (mott i)ORTIZ L 119 4.00    
DAWN AFTER DAWN Aug11 Jul04       (walsh p)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00    
RANDO Aug03         (stall m)ELLIOTT JANE 119 12.00    
ALEDEAN Aug25         (amoss thomas)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
CHAMPAGNE NIGHTS Aug11         (wilkes r)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
ALONGCOMESAWOMAN Aug04 Jul06       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 33% 2.00    
10  TRADING SECRETS Aug15 Jul21 Jun28     (lukas wayne)TORRES A 119 15.00    
 
CD-7   09/15/2024 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LEMON MUFFIN Jul20 Jun29 May17 May03 Mar30 (lukas wayne)TORRES A 118 3.50    
HUNTRESS FOR HIRE Aug10 Jun26 May18 Sep21 Jul22 (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00 23% 3.30    
SWEET GAL OF MINE Mar30 Feb14 Nov24 Oct21 Sep16 (mccarthy mic)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00 14% 6.10    
COME AS YOU ARE Sep07 Jun20 May25     (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
DETERMINED CANDY Aug24 Jul13 Jun02 Apr12   (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 118 10.00    
HARBOR SPRINGS Aug17 Jun26 May26 May03 Apr07 (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
BENEDETTA Aug17 Jun28 Sep09 Aug12 Jul08 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
HEY OLIVIA Aug17 Jul27 Jun29 Nov03   (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 120 4.00 31% 2.20    
STEAMPUNK Aug29 Aug10 Jun12 Oct15 Aug31 (davis chris)TORRES A 118 20.00    
10  LIGHTNING MYQUEEN Aug25 Dec29 Sep29     (mcpeek kenn)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
11  LA FORET Aug29 Jul20       (catalano m)VAZQUEZ A 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  RED RIVER MAGIC Aug10 Feb18 Dec29 Nov23 Oct26 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 8.00    
13  MISS ROCKETTE Aug04 May18 Apr20     (mott riley)ORTIZ L 118 5.00    
SCR  SISTER KISSES Aug24 Jun19 May11 Mar30 Mar09 (garcia genaro)TORRES A 121 15.00    
SCR  MUGEN Jun29 Jun08 May11 Mar22 Feb01 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 3.50    
SCR  CURLIN'S MAGIC Jun23 Jun08 May03 Feb02 Nov28 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
 
CD-8   09/15/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 F PT- 4:22
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
V V'S DREAM Mar23 Feb17 Oct29 Oct06 Sep16 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.00 16% 5.40    
SILVER ROSE Aug05 Jun19 May25 Dec09 Nov05 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00    
MINK'S PALACE Aug11 Jun22 Jun01 May03 Nov02 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 23% 3.40    
PRINCESS MADISON Aug23 Jul19 Jun08 May03 Apr05 (bauer a)ORTIZ L 120 2.50 33% 2.00    
LET THEM WATCH May31 May17 Mar24 Jan07 Dec02 (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 118 20.00    
MS. TART Aug05 Jul06 May31 Oct17 Sep16 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
RIPERTON Aug07 Jul05 Dec13 Oct15 Sep16 (lobo h)ROMAN A 120 15.00    
SCR  DOROTHY CROWFOOT Jul25 Jul07 Jun22 Jun01 Oct06 (rivelli larr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 20.00    
 
CD-9   09/15/2024 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:54
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BEN FRANKLIN May05 Apr21 Mar17 Feb25 Jan27 (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 122 8.00    
LAMBETH Aug06 Jun27 Dec31 Oct08   (mott i)TORRES A 120 15.00    
EVENT DETAIL Aug03 Feb25 Jan27 Jan01 Nov19 (walden william)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00    
SINGLE DOT YAHT Aug12 Jun30 Jun09 May10 Apr19 (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00    
BATON ROUGE (IRE) Aug24 Jul21 Jun07 May05 Mar15 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 124 3.00 59% 0.70    
EXPENSIVE CUT Aug12 Jun29 May31 Feb09 Jan13 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
BOURBON RESOLVE Jul29 Jun27 Feb18 Jan19 Nov26 (wilkes r)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 10.00    
CREATIVE MINISTER Jan13 Dec29 Nov11 Oct14 Jul08 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00 8% 11.60    
HURRY HURRY Jun29 Jun06 May10 Dec22 Nov16 (sims p)SAEZ LUIS 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  MACKMAN Jun26 Apr28 Apr13 Mar21 Feb15 (shirer matt)TORRES A 122 30.00    
11  KING KUMBALAY Dec31 Nov25 Oct17 Sep23 Aug21 (correas ignacio )ORTIZ L 122 6.00    
12  GAME WARDEN Aug17 Jul27 Jun27 May12 Apr19 (casse norm)SANTANA JR 126 3.50 7% 14.30    
 
CD-10   09/15/2024 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:25
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AL AMEEQ Aug03 Jun09 May24 Apr24 Mar13 (mckeever andr)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00 10% 9.10    
SCR  BEBEDOURO Aug17 Jul20 Jun16 May11 Apr06 (lobo h)ROMAN A 118 15.00    
BRIO May23 May11 Mar21 Mar02 Jan26 (medina robert)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 30.00    
THOUGHTTHATCOUNTS Aug31 Aug05 Mar13 Feb16   (brafford michell)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00 7% 13.30    
CATHEDRAL BEACH Aug12 Jun28 Jun06 May04 Apr14 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 10.00 15% 5.90    
CHRYSO ALOGO Aug05 Jul04 Jun20 May30 May12 (vasquez german )CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00    
G T FIVE HUNDRED Aug12 Jun28 Jun12 May12 Mar29 (cano muno)TORRES A 121 20.00    
SCR  HOLIDAY HOUSE Aug27 Aug13 Jul11 May29 May16 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00    
SCR  B FIFTY TWO Jul04 May09 Mar21 Jan21 Dec14 (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
10  JUNIOR BUG Jun06 May12 Mar07 Feb16 Jan05 (van thoma)GEROUX FLORENT 121 3.50 31% 2.20    
11  MORUNNING Jul28 Jul07 Mar08 Feb03   (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00 7% 13.50    
12  B SUDD Aug05 Jun28 May30 May12 Apr12 (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.00    
13  WILLIE BIRD Jul28 Jun22 Jun16     (rivelli larr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 6.00    
SCR  NORTHERN CHILL Aug12 Jul11 Apr07 Mar02 Jan05 (blair jorda)TORRES A 118 6.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.