Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - September 22, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   EXA (6/1/3/2)-(6/1/3/2) 12 $2.00 $24.00  3-1 $26.30 $2.30 10%
    TRI (6/1/3/2)-(6/1/3/2)-(6/1/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00  3-1-6 $22.58 $10.58 88%
CD-2   WIN (1/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00  4 $18.98 $12.98 216%
    DD (6/1/3/2)-(1/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00  3-4 $40.94 $28.94 241%
CD-3   EXA (4/11/9/8)-(4/11/9/2/8) 16 $2.00 $32.00  4-11 $47.76 $15.76 49%
    TRI (4/11/9/8)-(4/11/9/2/8)-(4/11/9/2/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00  4-11-9 $44.53 $20.53 86%
    DD (1/3/4)-(4/11/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00  4-4 $45.45 $33.45 279%
    PK3 (6/1/3/2)-(1/3/4)-(4/11/9/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00  3-4-4 $70.31 $46.31 193%
CD-4   PK3 (1/3/4)-(4/11/9/8)-(4/5/2/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00  4-4-4 $83.39 $59.39 247%
CD-9   WIN (6/5/7/11/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00  6 $12.66 $2.66 27%
    DD (5/1/6)-(6/5/7/11/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00  5-6 $23.98 $8.98 60%
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   09/22/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:233 :473 1:121 1:371   1:432   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  LUCENCY 3 1 23 31 41 1½ 16½ (danner kelsey)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50 13% 6.90 2.07 W
1  CAWKAB 1 6 44 42½ 3½ 2½ 26½ (mckeever an)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 4.00 23% 3.30 4.56 P
6  FIRST STRIKE 6 7 76½ 63¾ 62½ 54 39½ (lobo h)ROMAN A 122 3.00 32% 2.20 2.90 S
7  ETHEREAL ROAD 7 3 65½ 53½ 52 64 411½ (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 3.47  
5  CASHMEUP 5 4 13 11 2nk 32 512½ (miller jer)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00 17.23  
4  JAY VEE BEE 4 2 33 21 1nk 43½ 615¾ (van thomas)BEJARANO R 122 8.00 9.97  
2  EXPRESS CRUISER 2 5 55 74¼ 75 78 719 (camejo jose )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00 5% 19.00 11.24  
 
CD-2   09/22/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:223 :451 1:094     1:162   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  ROBO MAN 4 4 66½ 65   52¾ 11 (holden dar)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 6.00 6% 15.90 8.49 W
5  KNICKS STORY 5 1 2½ 2nk   3.2 21 (colebrook ben)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 1.93  
6  W W CRAZY 6 5 54½ 43   42¼ 31¼ (lauer mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 5.00 6.51  
3  FITZPATRICK 3 6 33 3½   1nk 42 (esquivel j)CORRALES GERARDO 121 3.00 30% 2.40 3.09  
1  HEY EUGENE 1 2 1½ 1nk   2nk 52¾ (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 37% 1.70 2.58  
2  CIRCLE BACK JACK 2 3 43 53½   65¼ 65¼ (garcia genar)BARBOSA CARLOS 121 5.00 8.04  
 
CD-3   09/22/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:222 :452 1:10     1:163   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  STARSCAPE 4 5 1nk 11   12 13 (dutrow rich)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 2.50 40% 1.50 2.52 W
11  J J'S RANGER 11 1 2nk 21   22 23 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 5.00 27% 2.70 7.43 P
9  MAJOR MACK 9 3 41½ 42½   45 35¼ (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 5.00 10% 8.60 2.99 S
6  PHENOMENAL DREAM 6 11 1110¼ 108½   66½ 45¼ (shorter aaron)VAZQUEZ A 121 15.00 60.51  
8  ROPE A DOPE 8 4 31 31½   32½ 56½ (drury thomas)MONCADA IRVING 114 12.00 5% 19.00 9.33  
2  LATTA 2 9 64¼ 54½   56½ 67½ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 ★ 3.34  
10  GOOD NEWS ROCKET 10 7 85¾ 76½   78½ 710 (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 15.00 12.39  
7  PUCKSTER 7 2 97¾ 97   911½ 816 (troiani ni)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 20.00 70.84  
3  COWBOY LUKE 3 6 51¾ 65   810½ 917½ (quartarol)LEPAROUX R 121 12.00 19.38  
1  LUCKYASIWONSWAS 1 10 1010¼ 1115½   1119½ 1026 (warpool shane)ELLIOTT JANE 124 30.00 72.20  
5  DIAMOND LORD 5 8 74¾ 86½   1018 1131¾ (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 121 10.00 14.36  
 
CD-4   09/22/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:241 :472 1:113 1:363   1:424   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  THE PRINCE'S SPUR 4 2 63½ 65¼ 42½ 11 14½ (bauer phil)CORRALES GERARDO 122 1.60 23% 3.40 2.15 W
5  BLACK POWDER 5 5 31½ 32½ 21 21 24½ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 22% 3.60 1.55 P
6  ONTHESTAGE 6 4 73¾ 75¾ 52½ 42½ 35¼ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 6.00 12.60  
1  FURIOUS ANGER 1 3 41½ 53¾ 64 64 47 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 122 6.00 10.37  
7  OUR DREAM RYE'D 7 6 52½ 43½ 31½ 53 59 (stinson willi)MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00 7% 13.00 7.10  
2  SAINT IN THE CITY 2 1 1½ 1nk 11 31½ 69½ (van tho)TORRES A 122 15.00 20% 4.10 12.93  
3  I'M YOUR MAN 3 7 2½ 2nk 75 78 713¾ (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 5.79  
 
CD-5   09/22/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:234 :471 1:12 1:383   1:451   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  RIGHTEOUS STAR 5 2 43 46 44 21½ 11¾ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 4.86  
5  LORD BARANOF 4 1 11 1½ 1½ 11½ 21¾ (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 41% 1.40 3.73 P
8  CAPO LUCA 6 6 55½ 59 56 53½ 35 (walden william)VAZQUEZ A 119 10.00 6.59  
4  SUNNY MAGIC 3 3 21 2½ 2½ 32 45¼ (devaux che)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 31% 2.20 1.86  
1  MORALLY 1 4 32½ 34 34 42½ 57¼ (hiles a)LANERIE J 119 12.00 5% 19.00 17.16  
3  PENEI 2 5 812 817½ 818 818½ 619 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 10.00 8.74  
10  SKATER 8 8 77½ 612½ 714½ 717½ 720½ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 8.00 ★ 8.50 DH
9  SKIP FACTOR 7 7 67½ 712½ 614 615½ 720½ (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00 10.43 DH
SCR  HAUNTED FLAME               (lynch brian )MONCADA IRVING 112 10.00    
SCR  MODERN MASTER               (brown cha)TORRES A 119 5.00 ★    
 
CD-6   09/22/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:253 :502 1:143 1:382   1:443   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  HOODLUM 4 2 1½ 2½ 2nk 1nk 1nk (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 122 4.50 5.25  
2  RIVER IN EGYPT 2 4 2½ 1½ 1nk 2nk 2nk (oliv)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 30.00 44.88  
6  ON A SPREE 5 3 52½ 54½ 53¾ 31½ 3¼ (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.80 34% 1.90 1.14 S
7  INDIAN GULCH 6 7 63½ 64½ 33 43½ 42¾ (van thomas)BEJARANO R 122 8.00 12% 7.70 5.10  
4  ROCKET HOTSHOT 3 6 74 75½ 66¼ 66 57 (rodrigue)RODRIGUEZ A 122 20.00 56.98  
10  RIGHT TONE 8 8 85 87 76¼ 77½ 67½ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 10.00 5% 19.00 13.40  
1  PROVERB 1 1 42 43½ 43¼ 54 78 (joseph a)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 27% 2.70 2.44  
8  PACE 7 5 31 33 88¾ 815½ 824¾ (winters mi)CORRALES GERARDO 122 12.00 41.24  
SCR  FORGE IN FIRE               (bahena ism)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 30.00    
SCR  NEPAL UP               (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 122 8.00    
 
CD-7   09/22/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:222 :453 1:103 1:231   1:354   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  CLAIRE'S CHARM 1 3 42 31½ 31 11½ 11½ (bauer a)SAEZ LUIS 119 1.60 28% 2.50 0.33 W
  (by VIOLENCE out of HOPPA by UNCLE MO)
7  GIRL MATH 4 1 52½ 52¾ 42½ 21½ 21½ (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00 15% 5.80 10.73 P
  (by MCKINZIE out of SACRISTY by GODSWALK)
9  PRINCESS OF OMAHA 6 4 31 41¾ 2½ 34½ 312½ (mcentee paul)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00 45.51  
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of FORCE TO EXCEL by VERRAZANO)
5  CALIFORNIA SUNSET 3 7 76 77¼ 79 68½ 413½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 21% 3.90 6.48  
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of REGAL BEAUTY by MALIBU MOON)
11  QUEEN JUBILEE 7 6 2½ 21½ 53 58 515¾ (beckman d )CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00 27.93  
  (by AUTHENTIC out of PARTY STARTER by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
8  FORMAGGIO 5 2 1½ 11½ 1½ 45 617 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00 59.78  
  (by CANDY RIDE out of LAQUEZZA by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
4  HEREFORAGOODTIME 2 5 63½ 64¾ 67½ 712½ 730½ (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 16% 5.10 10.85  
  (by JUSTIFY out of FIRST HOUR by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
12  CRIMSON SUN 8 8 86½ 88¾ 811 817½ 840½ (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 12.00 10.16  
  (by CURLIN out of PROSPECTOR'S MOON by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  BURIANA               (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of SUPER SAKS by SKY MESA)
SCR  GOLDEN GAMBLE               (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of ME AND MINE by BERNARDINI)
SCR  ME AND MOLLY MCGEE               (eurton pe)TORRES A 119 10.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of MOLLY MCGEE by QUALITY ROAD)
SCR  MINNESOTA MUNNY               (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of BLUE UNION RAGS by UNION RAGS)
SCR  MY SHOT               (amoss thomas)TORRES A 119 12.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of COVENANT by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
 
CD-8   09/22/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:22 :451 :571     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  GETTYSBURG ADDRESS 4 1 2½ 2½   1nk 1½ (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 32% 2.10 1.79 W
2  ON MY HONOR 2 3 42½ 43   42 2½ (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 4.07  
4  BEBEDOURO 3 2 1½ 1½   2nk 32 (lobo h)ROMAN A 118 3.50 3.52  
1  EPIC BATTLE 1 4 32 32½   31½ 43 (hiles rick)LANERIE J 118 4.00 23% 3.40 1.64  
6  COULDITBEMAJIC 5 5 58½ 58½   56½ 55½ (brennan t)BEALMEAR C 111 15.00 19% 4.40 15.96  
SCR  PEEK               (arnold ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 2.50    
SCR  UNWORKABLE               (acevedo isra)MONCADA IRVING 113 20.00    
 
CD-9   09/22/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:54
See original race card.
:212 :442 :562     1:084   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  GOLD LUCK 6 2 103½ 83   32 12 (garcia ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 2.50 35% 1.80 5.33 W
4  CONDEMN 4 4 2½ 1nk   11½ 22 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00 16.77  
2  DEER DISTRICT 2 9 82 42   42½ 34¼ (romans dale)LANERIE J 121 4.00 3.91  
1  MIDNIGHT ESCAPE 1 6 92 95   96¾ 45½ (brown h)BEJARANO R 121 30.00 5% 19.00 40.81  
3  GOODASIWONSWAS 3 7 1½ 2nk   21½ 55½ (warpool shane)ELLIOTT JANE 121 30.00 93.34  
5  FORT WARREN 5 5 31½ 117   117¾ 67½ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 21% 3.80 2.76  
11  VITTORIO 11 1 41½ 62¼   75½ 77¾ (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 15.00 8% 11.30 33.45  
7  SAHALAT 7 3 72 72¾   107¼ 87¾ (mckeever andr)CANNON DECLAN 123 3.00 12% 7.40 4.13  
8  NOT NORMAL 8 8 113¾ 107   86½ 98 (murphy con)HERNANDEZ J 121 20.00 34.88  
10  MIACOMET 10 10 61¾ 52¼   64½ 108¼ (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 8.00 10.61  
12  BILLY JACK 12 11 51¾ 31½   54½ 118½ (west aaro)BERMUDEZ E 123 12.00 11.08  
9  GILMORE 9 12 1221¾ 1225   1227¾ 1228½ (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 12.00 12.43  
 
CD-10   09/22/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:25
See original race card.
:211 :442 :562     1:09   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  SENIOR OFFICER 3 11 107 96¾   43½ 11¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 3.50 23% 3.40 1.04 W
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SOUTHERN RING by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
6  TRUST ISSUES 6 1 2nk 1nk   11½ 21¼ (lovell michelle)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00 26% 2.90 4.70 P
  (by ENTICED out of INDIAN CEE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
2  I'M MCDREAMY 2 10 73½ 74½   53½ 34½ (ortiz alex)VAZQUEZ A 121 15.00 44.45  
  (by HARD SPUN out of NIGHT WITCH by INDIAN CHARLIE)
1  GOOD LORD 1 3 1nk 2nk   21½ 44½ (amoss thomas)TORRES A 121 4.50 5.91  
  (by LORD NELSON out of MALIBU PARTY by HARD SPUN)
9  UNCLE WILLIAM 9 2 3½ 31½   33 56½ (guida ant)CORREA L 124 6.00 13.11  
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of AWESOME MARY by AWESOME AGAIN)
12  DU MONDE 12 12 1210½ 129¾   97¾ 67½ (hill f)BEJARANO R 121 30.00 66.41  
  (by STREET BOSS out of AFFAGATO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
5  SNOOK 5 9 118 117¾   128½ 77¾ (lynch brian )MONCADA IRVING 114 15.00 41.44  
  (by POINT OF ENTRY out of BRIE'S SNOWFLAKE by TALE OF THE CAT)
8  ROWDY RIOT 8 5 95 106¾   118½ 88¼ (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 12.00 5% 19.00 15.79  
  (by RUNHAPPY out of AUGUSTA QUEEN by FORESTRY)
10  SHORTSTOP 10 7 84 86½   108 912 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 124 8.00 5% 19.00 6.95  
  (by BLAME out of JULERETTE by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
4  BLUE LINE 4 4 52 42½   66½ 1012¼ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 6.00 31.48  
  (by NYQUIST out of TAKECHARGEDELILAH by TAKE CHARGE INDY)
7  FLY J'S FUNTASTIC 7 6 62½ 53½   77½ 1112½ (stinson willi)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00 ######  
  (by FUNTASTIC out of FLOWERY by DISTORTED HUMOR)
11  HALFWAY JOKING 11 8 41½ 64   87¾ 1213¼ (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 121 15.00 20% 4.10 20.82  
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of HALFWAY by TAPIT)
SCR  BRAVEN               (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of LETCHWORTH by TIZNOW)
SCR  NYQUIST FREQUENCY               (blair jor)TORRES A 121 4.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of IS IT GOLD by INDYGO SHINER)
SCR  SKYLER               (barrett ro)CORRALES GERARDO 124 20.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of MY BLUE SKY by SKY MESA)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.