Handicappers' Race Results
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Churchill Downs
Sunday - September 29, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
CD-1   Win (1/2/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 0 $7.22  
CD-2   Win (2/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $5.02 $5.02  
CD-3   Win (4/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 0 $10.48  
CD-4   Win (4/6/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 0 $30.88  
CD-5   Win (7/2/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 7 1 1 $8.62 $8.62 0.62
CD-6   Win (5/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $5.18 $5.18  
CD-7   Win (1/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $3.88 $3.88  
CD-8   Win (5/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 5 1 1 $11.96 $11.96 7.96
CD-9   Win (6/9/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 0 $18.66  
CD-10   Win (7/9/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 7 1 1 $4.06 $4.06  
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   09/29/2024 5280ft DIRT RC9 GOOD Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:232 :464 1:104 1:234   1:363   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  WINDY WALK 3 3 21 21 2½ 2½ 1hd (davis christ)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 2.61  
1  PENS STREET 1 5 65 42 42½ 3½ 2hd (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 2.00 54% 0.90 1.46 P
6  KIKI KRAZY 6 1 11 11 1½ 1½ 37 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00 6% 15.80 4.93 S
5  BIRDIE ROSE 5 4 32 32 32 43 48¼ (salas marcel)CORRALES GERARDO 122 5.00 6.15  
4  CHIQUITA MOSCA 4 7 75½ 76 78½ 78¾ 510½ (bahena ismael)MIRANDA ROGELIO 122 12.00 19.26  
2  CANT KEEP ME DOWN 2 2 42 52½ 55 57 611½ (salas marcelin)MONCADA IRVING 115 6.00 15% 5.70 11.96  
7  LADY JUNE 7 6 53½ 63½ 66½ 68½ 711¾ (castanon g)CASTANON L 118 10.00 5% 19.00 9.59  
 
CD-2   09/29/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:222 :453 :574     1:102   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  BOURBON SERENGETI 2 2 11 11   11 12 (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.80 34% 2.00 1.51 W
1  MORINGA 1 1 42 31½   21 22 (matejka pavel)MACHADO LUAN 120 4.00 24% 3.10 5.71 P
6  MO FOR US 5 4 31 21   32½ 36 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 2.00 2.34  
5  TAPIT QUICK 4 5 52½ 52½   43½ 47 (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00 3.14  
4  IMPRACTICAL DIVA 3 3 21 42   55 513 (mccarthy mich)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 5.00 8% 11.90 6.91  
SCR  YUME               (lee joseph)CANNON DECLAN 124 15.00    
 
CD-3   09/29/2024 5610ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:244 :491 1:133 1:38   1:444   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PARADISE LANE 1 3 11 11 11 12½ 13½ (mott i)TORRES A 120 3.00 4.24  
5  BABY AVERY 5 1 41½ 31½ 21 22½ 23½ (vance thoma)BEALMEAR C 115 15.00 18.15  
4  SONHADOR 4 6 62¾ 62½ 43½ 34½ 34 (devaux cheri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 1.60 35% 1.90 1.30 S
6  INDY LABEL 6 5 31½ 41½ 53½ 57½ 47¼ (shirer matt)TORRES A 120 20.00 32.24  
3  FAZOOLS 3 4 21 21 32½ 46 57½ (brown c)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.40 34% 1.90 1.84  
2  CHURNING BERNI 2 2 51¾ 52 64½ 68½ 69¼ (pessin neil )HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00 5% 19.00 5.47  
 
CD-4   09/29/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:224 :462 1:113     1:18   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  CREATIVE QUALITY 2 5 1½ 1½   12 13 (moger )PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 121 5.00 14.44  
3  PALACE LIGHTS 3 7 65 66   33½ 23 (hamm timothy)GRAHAM J 121 12.00 5% 19.00 4.56 P
5  AIR FORCE THUNDER 5 2 52 53   44½ 34¼ (moger jr)BEJARANO R 121 4.50 3.06  
4  BEACH BUNNY 4 3 2½ 2½   22 47 (catalano wayne)TORRES A 121 2.50 42% 1.40 2.29  
1  CHICA ARMA 1 4 31½ 32   56 58¼ (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 3.50 6.52  
6  MYSTICAL FIRE 6 6 76½ 78   710½ 612¼ (moquett rona)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00 30% 2.30 3.18  
7  PRINCESS POM POM 7 1 41½ 42   610 722 (forster t)CASTANON L 124 10.00 5% 19.00 20.35  
 
CD-5   09/29/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:23 :463 1:13     1:263   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  LOU MAN 7 6 61¾ 73¼   4¾ 12½ (rivelli larr)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 49% 1.00 3.31 W
5  VSOP 5 3 4¾ 61¾   63¾ 22½ (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 5.00 ★ 9.19 P
6  STUNNING BRUNO 6 7 72¼ 41   2nk 34½ (jazdzewski jo)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 10.00 11.13  
8  KERNER 8 5 3½ 2nk   1nk 46¼ (ennis john)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00 25.37  
1  MR LEE 1 10 1012¼ 1011¼   98¼ 57 (humphries thomas)BEJARANO R 119 20.00 18.92  
2  HUEVOS D'ORO 2 8 83¾ 96¾   75¾ 68¼ (orantes r)JIMENEZ ALBIN 119 3.50 22% 3.60 4.61  
4  BAYTOWN BEATLE 4 1 2nk 1nk   3.2 79 (mcentee pau)BEALMEAR C 114 4.50 6% 14.80 5.03  
10  VADEN 10 4 51¼ 51½   53¼ 810¼ (ortiz alexande)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 3.18  
9  BEGFORFORGIVENESS 9 9 94¼ 83¼   85¾ 913 (cano muno)TORRES A 119 10.00 22.30  
3  BAYTOWN GUVNAH 3 2 1nk 3½   109¾ 1021 (mcentee paul)VILLARREAL OSCAR 112 15.00 5% 19.00 10.60  
 
CD-6   09/29/2024 6600ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:23 :48 1:142 1:391   2:032   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COMMUTED 1 1½ 1½ 1½ 1nk 1nk 1¾ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.50 33% 2.00 1.59 W
3  TENNESSEE LAMB 3 2½ 2½ 2½ 2nk 2nk 2¾ (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00 9.78  
5  PADIDDLE 5 31½ 31½ 31½ 32½ 34 35½ (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 3.00 34% 2.00 2.86 S
2  COME TO PAPA 2 51¾ 41½ 41½ 44 45 47 (joseph saffi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 9.63  
4  SWEET FREEDOM 4 41½ 52½ 63¼ 67 610 516½ (medina robe)TORRES A 120 6.00 5% 19.00 8.51  
6  ELKO COUNTY 6 63¾ 64 53 56 59½ 616½ (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 120 3.50 2.61  
 
CD-7   09/29/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:233 :464 1:104     1:233   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHOW TIME 1 2 1½ 1½   12 11¼ (sisterson ja)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.60 41% 1.40 0.94 W
4  SUTHERLAND 4 1 2½ 2½   22 21¼ (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 121 4.00 3.55  
2  UNCLE BERLEY 2 6 32 31½   34½ 35¼ (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 2.50 33% 2.10 2.25 S
3  CITY OF CLOUDS 3 5 42 41½   44½ 46¼ (santamaria c)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 15.00 9.38  
6  CRIMINAL DEFENSE 5 4 54½ 58   511 511½ (barnett c)GRAHAM J 121 20.00 5% 19.00 29.73  
7  STAR NATION 6 3 610½ 613½   613½ 613¼ (hartlage g)ELLIOTT JANE 121 15.00 22.35  
SCR  DEWY'S BEAST               (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 3.50    
 
CD-8   09/29/2024 3630ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:22 :452 :573     1:04   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  LAURA'S CHARM 3 4 33 32½   12 11½ (kerrick lacy)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 5.00 39% 1.60 4.98 W
3  CURRENT CLIMATE 1 3 47½ 47½   33½ 21½ (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 121 4.00 1.30  
6  CONNIE K 4 2 2nk 2nk   22 36¼ (morse randy)TORRES A 121 6.00 2.30  
4  AMERICAN STARLET 2 1 1nk 1nk   44½ 418 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 8.00 27% 2.70 2.23  
SCR  HAPPY AM I               (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.00    
SCR  SHARP HERO               (meraz anton)LEPAROUX R 121 8.00    
 
CD-9   09/29/2024 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:54
See original race card.
:23 :454 1:101 1:223   1:352   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  HORACE MANN 2 2 1½ 11 11½ 13 13¼ (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 122 10.00 8.33  
7  DUCALE 6 5 52¾ 52½ 53½ 23 23¼ (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 8.00 15% 5.50 4.32 P
1  LUGAN KNIGHT 1 1 4¾ 41½ 21½ 33 35½ (mccarthy micha)TORRES A 122 15.00 9.57  
9  STRETCH RIDE 7 6 3½ 31½ 42½ 45 47¾ (romans dale)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 16% 5.30 1.98  
6  SNEAD 5 7 75¾ 76 78 68 57¾ (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 40% 1.50 2.92  
5  CAN'T HUSH THIS 4 4 2½ 21 32 56½ 613 (maker michae)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.00 5.47  
4  BLUE KENTUCKY 3 3 63¾ 64 66 710½ 722½ (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00 5% 19.00 11.81  
SCR  BIG HAT WILLIE               (jacobson da)LEPAROUX R 122 15.00    
SCR  CALL ME FAST               (sharp joe)TORRES A 122 2.50    
 
CD-10   09/29/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 5:25
See original race card.
:214 :453 :581     1:112   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  SOUK PLAZA 7 12 93½ 55   33 1¾ (cox h)BEJARANO R 119 2.00 43% 1.30 1.03 W
12  BANKING SILVER 12 11 103½ 21½   1nk 2¾ (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00 10.35  
5  LADY LIBERTY 5 8 115 107   54¼ 31 (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 ★ 6.96 S
10  PARIS LILY 10 10 83 96¾   86¼ 42¼ (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 12.89  
9  SHIRLEY ANN 9 1 41¾ 11½   2nk 54 (ortiz al)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 5.00 26% 2.90 10.52  
1  JEWEL BOX 1 9 73 75¼   74¾ 64¼ (wilkes ian )TORRES A 119 15.00 5% 19.00 17.05  
4  WONDERLAND 4 5 51¾ 43½   44 75¾ (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00 5% 19.00 8.09  
11  PRINCESS EM TOO 11 7 125¼ 118   1010¼ 89¼ (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 21.03  
2  NANCY LYNN 2 4 1nk 32   64¼ 912 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00 17.53  
3  MIA'S MOM 3 3 2nk 65   98¾ 1016 (medina robert)TORRES A 119 12.00 21.82  
8  STELLAR ASSET 8 2 31½ 128   1112¼ 1119¼ (hamm timothy)GRAHAM J 119 30.00 34.81  
6  SEVENON 6 6 62 86¾   1213¼ 1223¾ (holsapple hutc)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 30.00 82.23  
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.