Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - September 29, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-2   EXA (2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $2.00 $12.00  2-1 $21.18 $9.18 77%
CD-5   WIN (7/2/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00  7 $8.62 $0.62 8%
    EXA (7/2/4/3)-(7/2/4/5/3) 16 $2.00 $32.00  7-5 $68.00 $36.00 113%
CD-8   WIN (5/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00  5 $11.96 $7.96 199%
    DD (1/2/6)-(5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00  1-5 $14.55 $8.55 143%
    PK3 (5/1/4)-(1/2/6)-(5/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00  1-1-5 $19.73 $10.73 119%
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   09/29/2024 5280ft DIRT RC9 GOOD Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:232 :464 1:104 1:234   1:363   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  WINDY WALK 3 3 21 21 2½ 2½ 1hd (davis chri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 2.61  
1  PENS STREET 1 5 65 42 42½ 3½ 2hd (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 2.00 54% 0.90 1.46 P
6  KIKI KRAZY 6 1 11 11 1½ 1½ 37 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00 6% 15.80 4.93 S
5  BIRDIE ROSE 5 4 32 32 32 43 48¼ (salas marc)CORRALES GERARDO 122 5.00 6.15  
4  CHIQUITA MOSCA 4 7 75½ 76 78½ 78¾ 510½ (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 122 12.00 19.26  
2  CANT KEEP ME DOWN 2 2 42 52½ 55 57 611½ (salas marcel)MONCADA IRVING 115 6.00 15% 5.70 11.96  
7  LADY JUNE 7 6 53½ 63½ 66½ 68½ 711¾ (castanon jose )CASTANON L 118 10.00 5% 19.00 9.59  
 
CD-2   09/29/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:222 :453 :574     1:102   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  BOURBON SERENGETI 2 2 11 11   11 12 (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.80 34% 2.00 1.51 W
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of TANZANIA ROAD by ARCH)
1  MORINGA 1 1 42 31½   21 22 (matejka pavel)MACHADO LUAN 120 4.00 24% 3.10 5.71 P
  (by SUMMER FRONT out of LADY SIPHONICA by SIPHON (BRZ))
6  MO FOR US 5 4 31 21   32½ 36 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 2.00 2.34  
  (by MO TOM out of BOVELL ROAD by GRAEME HALL)
5  TAPIT QUICK 4 5 52½ 52½   43½ 47 (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00 3.14  
  (by TAPITURE out of INSPEIGHTOF by ORB)
4  IMPRACTICAL DIVA 3 3 21 42   55 513 (mccarthy mi)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 5.00 8% 11.90 6.91  
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of MS TRISH S. by SMOKE WARNING)
SCR  YUME               (lee joseph)CANNON DECLAN 124 15.00    
  (by DAAHER out of GIA by GIO PONTI)
 
CD-3   09/29/2024 5610ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:244 :491 1:133 1:38   1:444   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PARADISE LANE 1 3 11 11 11 12½ 13½ (mott william)TORRES A 120 3.00 4.24  
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of PARADISE WOODS by UNION RAGS)
5  BABY AVERY 5 1 41½ 31½ 21 22½ 23½ (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 115 15.00 18.15  
  (by RUNHAPPY out of CHARMAINE'S LEGACY by MR. GREELEY)
4  SONHADOR 4 6 62¾ 62½ 43½ 34½ 34 (devaux che)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 1.60 35% 1.90 1.30 S
  (by UNION RAGS out of VUITTON by RED RANSOM)
6  INDY LABEL 6 5 31½ 41½ 53½ 57½ 47¼ (shirer ma)TORRES A 120 20.00 32.24  
  (by TONALIST out of SWEET AUGUST LADY by CITY ZIP)
3  FAZOOLS 3 4 21 21 32½ 46 57½ (brown c)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.40 34% 1.90 1.84  
  (by CURLIN out of HOT CASH by GHOSTZAPPER)
2  CHURNING BERNI 2 2 51¾ 52 64½ 68½ 69¼ (pessin nei)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00 5% 19.00 5.47  
  (by BERNARDINI out of ABUNDANT FLURRY by MIDSHIPMAN)
 
CD-4   09/29/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:224 :462 1:113     1:18   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  CREATIVE QUALITY 2 5 1½ 1½   12 13 (moge)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 121 5.00 14.44  
3  PALACE LIGHTS 3 7 65 66   33½ 23 (hamm timothy)GRAHAM J 121 12.00 5% 19.00 4.56 P
5  AIR FORCE THUNDER 5 2 52 53   44½ 34¼ (moger jr)BEJARANO R 121 4.50 3.06  
4  BEACH BUNNY 4 3 2½ 2½   22 47 (catalano way)TORRES A 121 2.50 42% 1.40 2.29  
1  CHICA ARMA 1 4 31½ 32   56 58¼ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 3.50 6.52  
6  MYSTICAL FIRE 6 6 76½ 78   710½ 612¼ (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00 30% 2.30 3.18  
7  PRINCESS POM POM 7 1 41½ 42   610 722 (forster grant )CASTANON L 124 10.00 5% 19.00 20.35  
 
CD-5   09/29/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:23 :463 1:13     1:263   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  LOU MAN 7 6 61¾ 73¼   4¾ 12½ (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 49% 1.00 3.31 W
5  VSOP 5 3 4¾ 61¾   63¾ 22½ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 5.00 ★ 9.19 P
6  STUNNING BRUNO 6 7 72¼ 41   2nk 34½ (jazdzewski )CONCEPCION AXEL 119 10.00 11.13  
8  KERNER 8 5 3½ 2nk   1nk 46¼ (ennis john)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00 25.37  
1  MR LEE 1 10 1012¼ 1011¼   98¼ 57 (humphries thomas)BEJARANO R 119 20.00 18.92  
2  HUEVOS D'ORO 2 8 83¾ 96¾   75¾ 68¼ (orantes yoni )JIMENEZ ALBIN 119 3.50 22% 3.60 4.61  
4  BAYTOWN BEATLE 4 1 2nk 1nk   3.2 79 (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 114 4.50 6% 14.80 5.03  
10  VADEN 10 4 51¼ 51½   53¼ 810¼ (ortiz alexan)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 3.18  
9  BEGFORFORGIVENESS 9 9 94¼ 83¼   85¾ 913 (cano mu)TORRES A 119 10.00 22.30  
3  BAYTOWN GUVNAH 3 2 1nk 3½   109¾ 1021 (mcentee pa)VILLARREAL OSCAR 112 15.00 5% 19.00 10.60  
 
CD-6   09/29/2024 6600ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:23 :48 1:142 1:391   2:032   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COMMUTED 1 1½ 1½ 1½ 1nk 1nk 1¾ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.50 33% 2.00 1.59 W
  (by GUN RUNNER out of FINAL HOLIDAY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
3  TENNESSEE LAMB 3 2½ 2½ 2½ 2nk 2nk 2¾ (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00 9.78  
  (by TONALIST out of TENNESSEE WHISKEY by PERSIAN TURBAN (IRE))
5  PADIDDLE 5 31½ 31½ 31½ 32½ 34 35½ (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 3.00 34% 2.00 2.86 S
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of BELLE CHAUSSEE by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
2  COME TO PAPA 2 51¾ 41½ 41½ 44 45 47 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 9.63  
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of SHESACURLINMYTOES by CURLIN)
4  SWEET FREEDOM 4 41½ 52½ 63¼ 67 610 516½ (medina ro)TORRES A 120 6.00 5% 19.00 8.51  
  (by CANDY RIDE out of ALL AMERICAN GAL by AMERICAN PHAROAH)
6  ELKO COUNTY 6 63¾ 64 53 56 59½ 616½ (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 120 3.50 2.61  
  (by GUN RUNNER out of STRONGER THAN EVER by CONGRATS)
 
CD-7   09/29/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:233 :464 1:104     1:233   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHOW TIME 1 2 1½ 1½   12 11¼ (sisterson )GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.60 41% 1.40 0.94 W
4  SUTHERLAND 4 1 2½ 2½   22 21¼ (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 121 4.00 3.55  
2  UNCLE BERLEY 2 6 32 31½   34½ 35¼ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 2.50 33% 2.10 2.25 S
3  CITY OF CLOUDS 3 5 42 41½   44½ 46¼ (santamaria)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 15.00 9.38  
6  CRIMINAL DEFENSE 5 4 54½ 58   511 511½ (barnett c)GRAHAM J 121 20.00 5% 19.00 29.73  
7  STAR NATION 6 3 610½ 613½   613½ 613¼ (hartlage gary )ELLIOTT JANE 121 15.00 22.35  
SCR  DEWY'S BEAST               (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 3.50    
 
CD-8   09/29/2024 3630ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:22 :452 :573     1:04   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  LAURA'S CHARM 3 4 33 32½   12 11½ (kerrick lac)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 5.00 39% 1.60 4.98 W
3  CURRENT CLIMATE 1 3 47½ 47½   33½ 21½ (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 121 4.00 1.30  
6  CONNIE K 4 2 2nk 2nk   22 36¼ (morse ran)TORRES A 121 6.00 2.30  
4  AMERICAN STARLET 2 1 1nk 1nk   44½ 418 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 8.00 27% 2.70 2.23  
SCR  HAPPY AM I               (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.00    
SCR  SHARP HERO               (meraz ant)LEPAROUX R 121 8.00    
 
CD-9   09/29/2024 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:54
See original race card.
:23 :454 1:101 1:223   1:352   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  HORACE MANN 2 2 1½ 11 11½ 13 13¼ (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 122 10.00 8.33  
7  DUCALE 6 5 52¾ 52½ 53½ 23 23¼ (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 8.00 15% 5.50 4.32 P
1  LUGAN KNIGHT 1 1 4¾ 41½ 21½ 33 35½ (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 122 15.00 9.57  
9  STRETCH RIDE 7 6 3½ 31½ 42½ 45 47¾ (romans dale)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 16% 5.30 1.98  
6  SNEAD 5 7 75¾ 76 78 68 57¾ (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 40% 1.50 2.92  
5  CAN'T HUSH THIS 4 4 2½ 21 32 56½ 613 (maker mich)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.00 5.47  
4  BLUE KENTUCKY 3 3 63¾ 64 66 710½ 722½ (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00 5% 19.00 11.81  
SCR  BIG HAT WILLIE               (jacobson )LEPAROUX R 122 15.00    
SCR  CALL ME FAST               (sharp joe)TORRES A 122 2.50    
 
CD-10   09/29/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 5:25
See original race card.
:214 :453 :581     1:112   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  SOUK PLAZA 7 12 93½ 55   33 1¾ (cox h)BEJARANO R 119 2.00 43% 1.30 1.03 W
  (by STREET BOSS out of GLITTERING JEWEL by BERNARDINI)
12  BANKING SILVER 12 11 103½ 21½   1nk 2¾ (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00 10.35  
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of SWEAT AND SADDLE by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
5  LADY LIBERTY 5 8 115 107   54¼ 31 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 ★ 6.96 S
  (by CONSTITUTION out of SHAYJOLIE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
10  PARIS LILY 10 10 83 96¾   86¼ 42¼ (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 12.89  
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of STORM LILY by STORM CAT)
9  SHIRLEY ANN 9 1 41¾ 11½   2nk 54 (ortiz john )CONCEPCION AXEL 119 5.00 26% 2.90 10.52  
  (by OUTWORK out of HEY PAIGE by STAY THIRSTY)
1  JEWEL BOX 1 9 73 75¼   74¾ 64¼ (wilkes ia)TORRES A 119 15.00 5% 19.00 17.05  
  (by STREET SENSE out of IVORY EMPRESS by SEEKING THE GOLD)
4  WONDERLAND 4 5 51¾ 43½   44 75¾ (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00 5% 19.00 8.09  
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of MISS SOUTHERN MISS by MORE THAN READY)
11  PRINCESS EM TOO 11 7 125¼ 118   1010¼ 89¼ (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 21.03  
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of PRINCESS WARRIOR by MIDSHIPMAN)
2  NANCY LYNN 2 4 1nk 32   64¼ 912 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00 17.53  
  (by JUSTIFY out of GLAMOURATTI by STREET SENSE)
3  MIA'S MOM 3 3 2nk 65   98¾ 1016 (medina rober)TORRES A 119 12.00 21.82  
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of TWINKLING by EFFERVESCING)
8  STELLAR ASSET 8 2 31½ 128   1112¼ 1119¼ (hamm timothy)GRAHAM J 119 30.00 34.81  
  (by MUNNINGS out of WICKED OBSESSION by TAPIT)
6  SEVENON 6 6 62 86¾   1213¼ 1223¾ (holsapple hu)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 30.00 82.23  
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of Y SEVEN by GILDED TIME)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.