Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Friday - September 27, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-2   WIN (7/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00  6 $7.92 $1.92 32%
CD-3   DD (7/6/1)-(5/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00  6-1 $18.56 $9.56 106%
CD-5   EXA (7/4/1)-(7/4/5/1) 9 $2.00 $18.00  7-5 $20.04 $2.04 11%
CD-7   WIN (4/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00  1 $43.16 $37.16 619%
CD-9   WIN (6/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00  5 $29.02 $23.02 384%
    EXA (6/3/5)-(6/3/8/5) 9 $2.00 $18.00  5-8 $101.06 $83.06 461%
CD-10   WIN (4/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00  4 $9.56 $3.56 59%
    EXA (4/5/2)-(4/5/8/2) 9 $2.00 $18.00  4-5 $36.18 $18.18 101%
    DD (6/3/5)-(4/5/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00  5-4 $83.66 $74.66 830%
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   09/27/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:222 :47 :591     1:121   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  FANCY FASCINATOR 3 5 1½ 1nk   12 12¼ (moger jr)BEJARANO R 121 10.00 18.47  
5  INVENTING ANNA 4 4 31 2nk   22 22¼ (medina ro)BEALMEAR C 119 8.00 24% 3.20 6.52 P
1  STARCOURT 1 3 2½ 42   33½ 35½ (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 121 2.00 42% 1.40 0.81 S
7  EVOCATION 6 7 52½ 52½   45 46¼ (caramori cai)TORRES A 121 3.50 6.37  
8  HAND IT OVER 7 1 41 3½   55½ 58¾ (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 121 8.00 5% 19.00 10.99  
6  VIBE CHECK 5 6 62¾ 64   68 614 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 4.64  
3  MY SPRING SUNSHINE 2 2 72¾ 76½   710 716½ (pinzon maria)CALLEJA ANDRES 121 20.00 19.27  
9  LITTLE SASSER 8 8 88¼ 88   810½ 817 (cambray andr)HEBERT LINDSEY 117 20.00 5% 19.00 29.62  
SCR  AMERICAN SPLENDOR               (cambray andr)HEBERT LINDSEY 121 20.00    
 
CD-2   09/27/2024 4290ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:223 :462 1:12     1:184   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  UNO LE 4 3 2½ 11   13½ 11¼ (barrett r)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.00 23% 3.40 2.96 W
  (by KLIMT out of MY BLUE SKY by SKY MESA)
3  HIGH SHOT 3 2 56 54½   23½ 21¼ (simms mark )CONCEPCION AXEL 121 3.50 8.68  
  (by HIGHTAIL out of SMART SHOT by SKIPSHOT)
1  BARBANERA 1 5 44½ 43½   34 38 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 6.00 5% 19.00 3.85 S
  (by COLLECTED out of HOMESCHOOLING by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
2  FLAT STORMIN 2 4 1½ 21   46 420½ (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 6.00 7.60  
  (by FLATTER out of STORMBEFORETHECALM by QUIET AMERICAN)
7  SWEET TROUBLE 5 1 32½ 32   59 527 (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 124 1.60 43% 1.30 0.87  
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of CHOCOLATE COATED by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
SCR  PERFORMABILITY               (williamson)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 8.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of MAGICAL FLUTE by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
SCR  SUPER DUPER NICE               (nicely nigel)ORANTES CESAR 111 20.00    
  (by CINCO CHARLIE out of SHULAMITE LADY by GIROLAMO)
 
CD-3   09/27/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($175K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:221 :454 :573     1:094   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BANGO 1 4 41¼ 41½   1½ 12¼ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 2.00 34% 2.00 1.92 W
5  ANGKOR 4 2 1nk 11   2½ 22¼ (bauer a)BEJARANO R 123 1.60 35% 1.80 0.83 P
2  MINNESOTA READY 2 3 31 21   31 35 (amoss m)ORTIZ L 125 3.00 2.80  
3  SPANKSTER 3 1 2nk 31½   43½ 415 (cunningha)BEALMEAR C 120 15.00 5% 19.00 14.82  
SCR  DISCO BALL               (jacobson david)SAEZ LUIS 125 4.00    
 
CD-4   09/27/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($63K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:232 :474 1:124     1:253   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  CALIFORNIA BURRITO 7 7 63¾ 21½   15 16 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 4.01  
11  INSTANT REPLAY 9 5 32 32   25 26 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 1.80 66% 0.50 2.07 P
10  KEVIN'S STRIKE 8 11 97¼ 65   49½ 314¼ (amoss m)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 5% 17.60 5.65 S
6  DEREK'S LAW 4 8 86¾ 78   612 414¼ (amoss m)ORTIZ L 119 12.00 9.60  
2  MINTASTIC 1 6 74¼ 88½   712 515¼ (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00 5% 19.00 10.84  
4  JUJUBEE 3 1 12 11½   37 616¾ (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 8% 11.70 4.09  
8  STEELIN BASES 6 3 42¼ 55   510 718¾ (casse mar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00 ★ 20.65  
12  SHOTGUN 10 10 107¾ 98¾   815½ 822¾ (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00 32.55  
13  BOURBONATOR 11 2 22 42½   918½ 934¼ (desormeaux)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 20.00 47.14  
3  ROCK SOLO 2 9 1115¾ 1122¼   1128½ 1040¼ (moquett ronal)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 12.00 54.24  
7  MAZZEO 5 4 52¼ 1012¼   1025½ 1142 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00 19.86  
SCR  DEEPLY HIDDEN               (sweezey ken)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
SCR  ITSINMYBLOOD               (mckeever andr)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00    
 
CD-5   09/27/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:24 :484 1:141 1:384   1:451   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  BEST PERFORMER 7 3 33 32½ 1½ 13 15½ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 69% 0.50 0.91 W
5  MISS TAPPY TONE 5 4 64¾ 54½ 2½ 23 25½ (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 122 4.00 ★ 9.19 P
6  MO SENSE 6 7 76¾ 75¾ 53 35 35¾ (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 5.00 6.96  
4  CORKAGE FEE 4 2 22½ 22½ 42 45 48½ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 3.00 5% 17.60 4.26  
2  LATE NITE LIZZIE 2 6 54½ 64¾ 63½ 59½ 515 (garcia genar)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 12.00 15.77  
3  ROCK STAR DOCTOR 3 5 43 43 75½ 613 623½ (troiani ni)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 5.00 4.75  
1  WHAT'S CRACKIN 1 1 12½ 12½ 32 713½ 730¾ (hamilton sarah)ELLIOTT JANE 118 15.00 5% 19.00 22.17  
 
CD-6   09/27/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:222 :461 :582     1:051   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  TRUST FUND PHILLY 6 3 63 52¼   1nk 13½ (eurton peter)ORTIZ L 119 12.00 5.61  
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of HONOR AND TRUST by TO HONOR AND SERVE)
11  GOING STEADY 10 8 52 3.2   2nk 23½ (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 16% 5.10 2.55 P
  (by CONSTITUTION out of BLUEJEANS by GHOSTZAPPER)
5  SPRING DANCER 4 1 3½ 41¾   33 35 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00 3.92  
  (by THE BIG BEAST out of SPRING INCLUDED by INCLUDE)
3  TEMPERS FLY 3 4 41½ 62¼   44 49 (mccarthy mich)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 8% 11.10 24.08  
  (by VEKOMA out of RESPECT by THUNDER GULCH)
1  PLATINUM MIDNIGHT 1 10 1012¼ 1012   89½ 510 (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00 23.50  
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of PLATINUM LADY by IRON RULER (IRE))
6  MOR LUCK 5 7 99¼ 99   79 612¼ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 27.54  
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
10  CHATTER 9 5 2½ 2nk   55 714¼ (ortiz a)TORRES A 119 8.00 6.61  
  (by VEKOMA out of FLUTTERBY by CONGRATS)
8  LASKO LADY 7 6 77 77¾   99¾ 814½ (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 114 12.00 14% 6.20 35.68  
  (by MASTERY out of SWEETEST SOUND by ELOCUTIONIST)
2  RATIONAL THEORY 2 2 1½ 1nk   67 921¼ (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 27% 2.80 3.00  
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of AUNT DOROTHY by UNCLE MO)
9  COASTER 8 9 87¼ 88   1014¾ 1031 (moquett ro)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00 5% 19.00 17.90  
  (by VEKOMA out of LAVISHLY by PARAMOUNT JET)
SCR  MENDELA               (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of JENDA'S AGENDA by PROUD CITIZEN)
 
CD-7   09/27/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:221 :463 :59     1:12   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  READY PURSUIT 1 5 53 43½   33½ 12 (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 121 30.00 5% 19.00 20.58 W
5  BETTERING 5 4 2½ 1nk   1nk 22 (garcia genar)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 6.00 9.82  
4  BYE BYE LIAM 4 2 1½ 2nk   2nk 32½ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 5.00 49% 1.00 3.94 S
3  SPURRIER 3 1 41 32   44 47¼ (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00 15% 5.50 3.47  
2  SHAKIN LOOSE 2 6 63½ 65   510 518¾ (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 5.00 3.65  
6  CHITWOOD 6 3 31 54   615 650½ (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 1.31  
SCR  EXTRA HALO               (granitz anth)MONCADA IRVING 111 3.00    
SCR  QUENCIO               (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 118 8.00    
 
CD-8   09/27/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:23 :47 1:13 1:261   1:394   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  EXTRADITION 9 4 23½ 32 3½ 1nk 11½ (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 17.99  
  (by GUN RUNNER out of IF NOT FOR HER by NOT FOR LOVE)
7  SHOGUN (IRE) 7 8 44½ 21 2½ 2nk 21½ (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 8.00 15% 5.80 7.00 P
  (by BLAME out of SILVICULTURE by FORESTRY)
11  PUBLISHER 11 7 54½ 63 42½ 42½ 32¼ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 3.00 27% 2.70 3.17 S
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of INDIAN PRIDE by PROUD CITIZEN)
8  BUZZ ROCKET 8 9 1010¾ 118 99¾ 77½ 43¼ (mott william)GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00 27.59  
  (by CURLIN out of LOVE THE CHASE by NOT FOR LOVE)
6  BURNING GLORY 6 5 34 42½ 65¼ 55½ 53¼ (mott i)ORTIZ L 119 12.00 17.35  
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of HAIL by TAPIT)
2  EXUBERANT MISCHIEF 2 10 98¾ 96½ 76¾ 66 63¾ (amoss thomas)TORRES A 119 6.00 ★ 12.21  
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of EXUBERANCE by ARCHARCHARCH)
3  OUR FAVORITE SON 3 3 13½ 11 1½ 32 75 (bauer phil)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00 5.10  
  (by TAPWRIT out of PUTTHEBABIESDOWN by CLOSING ARGUMENT)
5  AMERICAN PROMISE 5 2 86¼ 52½ 55 87¾ 85½ (lukas w)TORRES A 119 10.00 5% 19.00 3.28  
  (by JUSTIFY out of TAPELLA by TAPIT)
4  CONSECRATED 4 11 1110¾ 107 1111¼ 913¾ 918¼ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00 23.27  
  (by HIGHER POWER out of GONCHAROVA by STREET SENSE)
10  INTO THIN AIR 10 6 64¾ 85 1010¾ 1015¾ 1024 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 37.71  
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of TIZ BREATHTAKING by TIZNOW)
1  PIQUANT 1 1 75¼ 73½ 88¼ 1116¼ 1124¾ (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 36% 1.80 5.03  
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of TASTEFUL by STREET CRY)
 
CD-9   09/27/2024 6600ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:54
See original race card.
:23 :472 1:124 1:39   2:061   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  COZEE RAGS 5 78 713½ 712 57 37 1¾ (michael brian)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 5% 19.00 13.51 W
8  BROUGHTY FERRY 8 66 511½ 59½ 46 25½ 2¾ (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 ★ 3.99 P
7  MISS HEBRIDES 7 11 11 11 15 15½ 32¼ (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 120 3.00 2.32  
3  LET'S DUET 3 45½ 611½ 69½ 79 59 44½ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00 36% 1.80 8.97  
1  PRETTY PROVOCATIVE 1 34 35½ 35½ 35 47½ 55 (miller darrin)SAEZ LUIS 122 5.00 5.55  
2  OFF THE LAM 2 56 49 46½ 67½ 614 625¼ (gutierrez f)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 15.00 30.66  
4  CONDONE 4 810½ 816 815½ 817 823 736 (oliver victori)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00 10.60  
6  TAKE SHAPE 6 21 21 21 25 718 841 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 122 2.50 40% 1.50 2.68  
 
CD-10   09/27/2024 5940ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:25
See original race card.
:232 :482 1:131 1:382   1:513   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  GENERAL MATHIS 3 2 31½ 31 2½ 12 14½ (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 122 4.50 35% 1.90 3.78 W
5  VIVIR CON ALEGRIA (CHI) 4 1 11 1½ 1½ 22 24½ (sanchez a)LEPAROUX R 122 4.00 34% 2.00 3.47 P
6  KISSALOT 5 4 42 42½ 42 34 36 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 122 12.00 6.47  
7  ROMAN CENTURIAN 6 6 75½ 75½ 65½ 57½ 410½ (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00 17.52  
8  TRIDENT HIT 7 7 64 64 53½ 47 511 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 ★ 2.56  
3  OUTLIER 2 3 21 2½ 3½ 68½ 618¼ (hiles rick)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.50 2.79  
2  TAPSASIONAL 1 5 53½ 53½ 76 712½ 723 (santamari)BEALMEAR C 117 8.00 5% 19.00 19.90  
SCR  UNDERDRESSED               (west m)MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.