Handicappers' Racing Form

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Churchill Downs
Sunday - September 24, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-2   Win (7/2/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-3   Win (3/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-4   Win (12/7/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-5   Win (1/7/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-6   Win (3/4/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-7   Win (1/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-8   Win (4/9) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-9   Win (5/8/9/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-10   Win (5/6/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
CD-1   09/24/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ATTACHE Sep16 Aug04 Jul14 Jul02 Mar24 (desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 118 1.40 53% 0.90    
POWER ALLEY Aug30 Jul30 Jul01 May03 Apr13 (forster gra)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 6.00    
SEAS OF NORMANDY Apr08 Mar11 Feb18 Jan28 Dec31 (jones larr)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 3.00 16% 5.40    
EL MUCHO Aug17 Aug06 Dec30 Dec10 Nov19 (rodriguez h)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
FOREVER COOL Aug28 Jul30 Jul02 Jun04 May03 (scherer marianne)LANERIE J 123 2.50    
 
CD-2   09/24/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
THANKGODNGREYHOUND Sep09 Aug03       (hiles jeff)SANTANA JR 120 10.00    
LEVY Aug20 Jul07 Apr29 Mar09 Sep10 (moquett ronald )CANNON DECLAN 122 4.00 14% 6.00    
PUNCTUALITY Jul31 Jul16 Jun25 May07 Apr13 (foster eric)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00    
LEMONADEATTHELATCH Sep02 Aug17 Aug03 Jul20 Jun23 (mendieta ale)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 20.00    
TIME TO MEDDLE Aug20 Jul23 Jun16 May18 Mar26 (forster t)LANERIE J 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
IZEONDEC Aug30 Jul30 May18 Apr13 Feb24 (rodriguez ed)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
CENTURION Aug04 Jul08 Dec18 Nov24 Oct27 (schultz lindsa)TORRES A 117 2.50 57% 0.80    
PLATINUM GHOST Aug03 Jun01 Apr27 Mar15   (hansen scott)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.50    
 
CD-3   09/24/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NEW BOSS Aug05 Jun16 May05 Mar25 Feb21 (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 5.00    
BABY NO WORRIES Jul22 Jun03 May13 Mar17 Feb24 (girten tim)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 12.00    
GOIN' GOOD Aug05 Jul07 Jun09 May07 Apr14 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 31% 2.20    
LINGUISTIC Aug31 Aug05 Jun22 May28 Apr07 (foster eric)CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00 17% 4.90    
READY FOR CHANGE Aug31 May12 Mar04 Jan14 Dec17 (pessin l)LANERIE J 121 15.00    
MINER'S QUEEN Sep02 Jul07 Jun10 May05 Apr15 (hernandez rey)NAVAS YOEL 114 15.00    
CARIMBA Jul05 Apr27       (hernandez rey)MOJICA O 121 6.00 30% 2.40    
SCR  STAR DEVINE (IRE) Jul13 Jun16 May07 Apr15 Nov27 (maker michael )TORRES A 116 3.00    
 
CD-4   09/24/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PLAY THE BLUES Aug20 Jul26       (rednour joh)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 124 30.00    
CHITWOOD Jun01 Mar02 Sep24     (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 8.00    
VALUABLE CARGO Aug18 Aug06 Jul09 Jun22 Apr27 (miller f)COURT K 121 15.00    
BACK TO REALITY Aug18         (hartman chris)TORRES A 116 5.00    
SCR  SHADY DAREDEVIL Jun10 Apr29       (casse norm)SANTANA JR 121 3.50    
SAVAGE KISS Aug20 Aug02 Jun15 May06 Mar24 (heitzman er)HERNANDEZ J 121 10.00    
COLONEL BARTON Aug04 Apr29 Apr16 Mar12 Mar03 (puhich mike)MICHEL MICKAELLE 124 12.00 12% 7.60    
PROSECUTION Aug18 Jul14 Nov15 Sep16   (claire alexis)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 12.00    
ANGELICO         (williamson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
10  BLUES ADMIRAL Jul30 Mar04 Feb03     (moquett ronald )CANNON DECLAN 121 4.50    
11  AZTECA STAR Jun10         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 121 15.00    
12  OFF THE CUFF May26 Apr22 Mar16 Feb10 Jan11 (humphries thoma)MORALES EDGAR 124 4.00 65% 0.50    
SCR  BAYOU SPIRIT Aug11 Jul14 May27     (lynch brian )MURRILL MITCHELL 121 8.00    
SCR  HIJACK THE PARTY Aug28         (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 121 8.00    
 
CD-5   09/24/2023 4950ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROUNDBALL ROCK Sep08 Aug06 Jul22     (caramori ca)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.00 71% 0.40    
AWAY FROM HOME Jan13 Nov18 Oct16 Sep23 Aug13 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 124 5.00    
FIGHTING BACK Jul09 Jun10       (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00    
SPEED INSTITUTE Aug27 Aug05 Jul16 Jun23 Oct21 (miller jerom)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 8.00    
SCR  PRESIDER Apr21 Mar04 Jan21 Oct19 Sep16 (caramori ca)LEPAROUX R 121 4.00    
UNWRAPPED Jul23 Jun22 May21     (engler jef)RODRIGUEZ A 121 12.00    
GUADALAJARA Jul30 Feb18 Jan21     (stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
BATTLE BORN Sep02 Aug01 Apr22 Mar04 Jan26 (king l)TORRES A 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-6   09/24/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:18
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
UNO MAS BOURBON Aug05 Jul01       (wilkes r)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
GREERS FERRY Aug28 Jul23       (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 3.50    
SMOKEY SMOKEY Sep03 Aug12       (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 57% 0.80    
SNEAD Aug27         (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 119 6.00 18% 4.60    
CREEK Aug31 Aug05       (mott i)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
GLENBROOK GERRY Sep02 Jul27       (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
GORILLA TREK         (bauer phili)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
MO CALIENTE Aug19         (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
YO DADDY         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 20.00    
10  VERACRUZIN Sep13 Aug25       (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
11  ASPIRING COMEDIAN Aug28         (pletcher tod)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
12  POLAR BEAR PLUNGE Jul15         (casse mark)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
SCR  DASHMAN         (lynch brian )MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00    
SCR  I'M YOUR MAN         (casse norm)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
SCR  ALL ABOUT TONITE Aug31 Aug12       (maker michael )TORRES A 114 6.00    
SCR  TIZZY INDY Aug10 Jul23       (desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00    
 
CD-7   09/24/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SISTER KISSES Sep04 Aug11       (rosin coty )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 2.00 54% 0.80    
SILVER SEA Sep02 Aug26 Mar09 Feb15 Jan26 (cano m)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
ALSANAH Aug23 Aug01 Jun21 May26 May10 (rone mike)CORRALES GERARDO 122 8.00    
YOLANDA WHO Jun03 Mar25 Feb26 Jan27 Dec31 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 11% 8.20    
SHIP IT Aug04 Jun24 May27 Apr21 Feb12 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 3.50 11% 8.00    
SCR  SONADOR Sep13 Aug16 Jun17 May20 May02 (hernan)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 5.00    
SHANIAH Feb04 Jan05 Dec15 Nov17 Oct21 (tomlinson michae)ROCCO S 122 4.50    
TONE ELISE May07 Apr10 Feb23 Jan07   (duffy sean)ASHTON GAVIN 122 10.00    
 
CD-8   09/24/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SOUPER EXPLOSIVE Aug05 Jan21 Dec23 Nov26 Oct30 (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50    
SCR  COBALAMIN         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 121 12.00    
SCR  PORT TOWNSEND Aug01         (devaux cher)TORRES A 121 4.50 28% 2.50    
FAST N HAPPY Aug18 May28 Apr27 Mar25 Feb15 (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.00 43% 1.30    
GOLDENSHUGA Feb24 Dec31       (casse norm)SANTANA JR 121 4.00    
UPSWELL         (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 15.00    
SAUCY SECRET Jul21 Jun17 May20     (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 121 20.00    
MUSICAL PRAYER         (vaccarezza carlo)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 12.00    
CAUSE I'M WILD         (morse l)CHUAN MARTIN 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
10  FOXFIRE         (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00    
 
CD-9   09/24/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SECRET POCKET Aug19 Jun29 Jun02 Apr29 Mar24 (peitz c)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
ARRO SMASH Aug26 Jul30 Jul02     (bauer philip)CORRALES GERARDO 120 6.00    
TEN DAYS LATER Jan01 Nov26 Oct20 Oct01 Sep14 (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
NIGHT EFFECT Jun30 Jun02 May06 Apr01   (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 10.00    
HIGHLAND FALLS Aug26         (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 120 4.00 35% 1.80    
SAQEEL Sep03 Jul16 Jun10 Apr02 Mar19 (diodoro rob)TORRES A 122 3.50    
HONED Oct30 Oct08 Sep17 Jul10   (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
BRAMITO Aug20 Jul02       (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 30% 2.30    
DAI VERNON Jul16 Jun22       (cox h)SANTANA JR 118 4.50 9% 9.80    
 
CD-10   09/24/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:26
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MAJESTIC D'ORO Aug31 Aug14 Jul03 May05 Sep13 (walsh p)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 4.00 9% 9.90    
FRANKEL BABY Aug19 Jul08 May27 Aug26 Aug09 (mcewen bill)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 118 30.00    
LAURA'S CHARM Jul22 Jun22 May28 Jan13 Dec22 (kerrick lacy)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00    
PROMISE OF HOPE Aug07 Jun11 May19 Dec26 Dec04 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
LADY GOLDSTART Aug19 Jul22 Jul07 Jun16 May14 (morey e)CHUAN MARTIN 121 2.50 42% 1.40    
LITTLE JEWEL Aug19 Jul07 May05 Apr15 Mar11 (vaccarezza carl)CANNON DECLAN 121 4.00 26% 2.90    
SHOWGIRL LYNNE B Jun17 May20 Mar25 Jan07 Dec03 (sharp joe)TORRES A 113 20.00    
MIMAJOON Sep12 Aug02 Jul06 Apr25 Mar16 (evans michael )ARAGON ROLANDO 121 20.00    
CURRENT CLIMATE Sep02 Jul22 Jun11 Apr15 Mar16 (foster eric)CORRALES GERARDO 121 3.00    
SCR  ALTERED SHOT Aug06 Jun22 May12 Mar17 Feb24 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00    
SCR  FASHION RAGE Aug06 Jul08 Jun09 Apr23 Mar09 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 121 3.50    
SCR  PIPELINE GIRL Aug19 Jan29 Jan01 Oct25 Sep21 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.