Handicappers' Racing Form

"A Premier Resource for Free horse Racing Picks, Strong Longshots and Vulnerable Favorites."
Thoroughbred Racing Simulator is licensed and powered by Brisnet.
Visit us at tbrsimulator.com.
Contact us at support@tbrsimulator.com.
Follow us on X@tbrsimulator.
 
The Longshot Specialist!

Churchill Downs
Sunday - September 24, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CD-1   WIN (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/3)-(1/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/3)-(7/2/5/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (1/3)-(7/2/5/6)-(3/7/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-2   WIN (7/2/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/5/6)-(7/2/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/2/5/6)-(7/2/5/6)-(7/2/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/2/5/6)-(3/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/2/5/6)-(3/7/4)-(12/7/9) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-3   WIN (3/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/4)-(3/7/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/7/4)-(3/7/4)-(3/7/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/7/4)-(12/7/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/7/4)-(12/7/9)-(1/7/8) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-4   WIN (12/7/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (12/7/9)-(12/7/10/4/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (12/7/9)-(12/7/10/4/9)-(12/7/10/4/9) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (12/7/9)-(1/7/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (12/7/9)-(1/7/8)-(3/4/6/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-5   WIN (1/7/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/8)-(1/7/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/7/8)-(1/7/8)-(1/7/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/7/8)-(3/4/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/7/8)-(3/4/6/7)-(1/5/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (3/4/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/4/6/7)-(3/4/6/2/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/4/6/7)-(3/4/6/2/7)-(3/4/6/2/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/4/6/7)-(1/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/4/6/7)-(1/5/4)-(4/9) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-7   WIN (1/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/4)-(1/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/4)-(1/5/4)-(1/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/4)-(4/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/5/4)-(4/9)-(5/8/9/3) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-8   WIN (4/9) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/9)-(4/5/9) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (4/9)-(4/5/9)-(4/5/9) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (4/9)-(5/8/9/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/9)-(5/8/9/3)-(5/6/1/4) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-9   WIN (5/8/9/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/8/9/3)-(5/8/9/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/8/9/3)-(5/8/9/3)-(5/8/9/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/8/9/3)-(5/6/1/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-10   WIN (5/6/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/6/1/4)-(5/6/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/6/1/4)-(5/6/1/4)-(5/6/1/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CD-1   09/24/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ATTACHE Sep16 Aug04 Jul14 Jul02 Mar24 (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 118 1.40 53% 0.90    
POWER ALLEY Aug30 Jul30 Jul01 May03 Apr13 (forster g)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 6.00    
SEAS OF NORMANDY Apr08 Mar11 Feb18 Jan28 Dec31 (jones la)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 3.00 16% 5.40    
EL MUCHO Aug17 Aug06 Dec30 Dec10 Nov19 (rodriguez)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
FOREVER COOL Aug28 Jul30 Jul02 Jun04 May03 (scherer mariann)LANERIE J 123 2.50    
 
CD-2   09/24/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
THANKGODNGREYHOUND Sep09 Aug03       (hiles je)SANTANA JR 120 10.00    
LEVY Aug20 Jul07 Apr29 Mar09 Sep10 (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 122 4.00 14% 6.00    
PUNCTUALITY Jul31 Jul16 Jun25 May07 Apr13 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00    
LEMONADEATTHELATCH Sep02 Aug17 Aug03 Jul20 Jun23 (mendieta a)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 20.00    
TIME TO MEDDLE Aug20 Jul23 Jun16 May18 Mar26 (forster t)LANERIE J 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
IZEONDEC Aug30 Jul30 May18 Apr13 Feb24 (rodriguez )MURRILL MITCHELL 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
CENTURION Aug04 Jul08 Dec18 Nov24 Oct27 (schultz lind)TORRES A 117 2.50 57% 0.80    
PLATINUM GHOST Aug03 Jun01 Apr27 Mar15   (hansen scot)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.50    
 
CD-3   09/24/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NEW BOSS Aug05 Jun16 May05 Mar25 Feb21 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 5.00    
BABY NO WORRIES Jul22 Jun03 May13 Mar17 Feb24 (girten ti)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 12.00    
GOIN' GOOD Aug05 Jul07 Jun09 May07 Apr14 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 31% 2.20    
LINGUISTIC Aug31 Aug05 Jun22 May28 Apr07 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00 17% 4.90    
READY FOR CHANGE Aug31 May12 Mar04 Jan14 Dec17 (pessin l)LANERIE J 121 15.00    
MINER'S QUEEN Sep02 Jul07 Jun10 May05 Apr15 (hernandez rey)NAVAS YOEL 114 15.00    
CARIMBA Jul05 Apr27       (hernandez rey)MOJICA O 121 6.00 30% 2.40    
SCR  STAR DEVINE (IRE) Jul13 Jun16 May07 Apr15 Nov27 (maker michae)TORRES A 116 3.00    
 
CD-4   09/24/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PLAY THE BLUES Aug20 Jul26       (rednour j)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 124 30.00    
CHITWOOD Jun01 Mar02 Sep24     (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 8.00    
VALUABLE CARGO Aug18 Aug06 Jul09 Jun22 Apr27 (miller f)COURT K 121 15.00    
BACK TO REALITY Aug18         (hartman chri)TORRES A 116 5.00    
SCR  SHADY DAREDEVIL Jun10 Apr29       (casse no)SANTANA JR 121 3.50    
SAVAGE KISS Aug20 Aug02 Jun15 May06 Mar24 (heitzman )HERNANDEZ J 121 10.00    
COLONEL BARTON Aug04 Apr29 Apr16 Mar12 Mar03 (puhich mik)MICHEL MICKAELLE 124 12.00 12% 7.60    
PROSECUTION Aug18 Jul14 Nov15 Sep16   (claire alex)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 12.00    
ANGELICO         (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
10  BLUES ADMIRAL Jul30 Mar04 Feb03     (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 121 4.50    
11  AZTECA STAR Jun10         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 121 15.00    
12  OFF THE CUFF May26 Apr22 Mar16 Feb10 Jan11 (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 124 4.00 65% 0.50    
SCR  BAYOU SPIRIT Aug11 Jul14 May27     (lynch bria)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 8.00    
SCR  HIJACK THE PARTY Aug28         (casse w)GARCIA MARTIN 121 8.00    
 
CD-5   09/24/2023 4950ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROUNDBALL ROCK Sep08 Aug06 Jul22     (caramori )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.00 71% 0.40    
AWAY FROM HOME Jan13 Nov18 Oct16 Sep23 Aug13 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 124 5.00    
FIGHTING BACK Jul09 Jun10       (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00    
SPEED INSTITUTE Aug27 Aug05 Jul16 Jun23 Oct21 (miller jer)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 8.00    
SCR  PRESIDER Apr21 Mar04 Jan21 Oct19 Sep16 (caramori )LEPAROUX R 121 4.00    
UNWRAPPED Jul23 Jun22 May21     (engler j)RODRIGUEZ A 121 12.00    
GUADALAJARA Jul30 Feb18 Jan21     (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
BATTLE BORN Sep02 Aug01 Apr22 Mar04 Jan26 (king l)TORRES A 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-6   09/24/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
UNO MAS BOURBON Aug05 Jul01       (wilkes r)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
  (by MACHO UNO out of CAMIELEE by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
GREERS FERRY Aug28 Jul23       (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 3.50    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of DEE DEE BERTIE by BLUEGRASS CAT)
SMOKEY SMOKEY Sep03 Aug12       (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 57% 0.80    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of WEAPONRY by WAR FRONT)
SNEAD Aug27         (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 119 6.00 18% 4.60    
  (by NYQUIST out of RAFFLE TICKET by NUMEROUS)
CREEK Aug31 Aug05       (mott william )MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of GULF by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
GLENBROOK GERRY Sep02 Jul27       (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of URQUIA by SCAT DADDY)
GORILLA TREK         (bauer phi)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CURLIN out of MONKEYS UNCLE by UNCLE MO)
MO CALIENTE Aug19         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of KALLIO by SCAT DADDY)
YO DADDY         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 20.00    
  (by YOSHIDA out of ELLE STORMIN' by TALE OF THE CAT)
10  VERACRUZIN Sep13 Aug25       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
  (by SUMMER FRONT out of MAKE HASTE (GB) by TIZNOW)
11  ASPIRING COMEDIAN Aug28         (pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of AFLEET LOVER by NORTHERN AFLEET)
12  POLAR BEAR PLUNGE Jul15         (casse mar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of LET IT SNOW by FROSTY THE SNOWMAN)
SCR  DASHMAN         (lynch bria)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of FLY BY by JOHAR)
SCR  I'M YOUR MAN         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of COUP DE COEUR by EXCHANGE RATE)
SCR  ALL ABOUT TONITE Aug31 Aug12       (maker michae)TORRES A 114 6.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of CATCHY TUNE by BERNSTEIN)
SCR  TIZZY INDY Aug10 Jul23       (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of TIZZY FEVER by TIZNOW)
 
CD-7   09/24/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SISTER KISSES Sep04 Aug11       (rosin cot)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 2.00 54% 0.80    
SILVER SEA Sep02 Aug26 Mar09 Feb15 Jan26 (cano juan)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
ALSANAH Aug23 Aug01 Jun21 May26 May10 (rone mike)CORRALES GERARDO 122 8.00    
YOLANDA WHO Jun03 Mar25 Feb26 Jan27 Dec31 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 11% 8.20    
SHIP IT Aug04 Jun24 May27 Apr21 Feb12 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 3.50 11% 8.00    
SCR  SONADOR Sep13 Aug16 Jun17 May20 May02 (hern)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 5.00    
SHANIAH Feb04 Jan05 Dec15 Nov17 Oct21 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 122 4.50    
TONE ELISE May07 Apr10 Feb23 Jan07   (duffy sean)ASHTON GAVIN 122 10.00    
 
CD-8   09/24/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SOUPER EXPLOSIVE Aug05 Jan21 Dec23 Nov26 Oct30 (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of INDIAN SAFARI by INDIAN CHARLIE)
SCR  COBALAMIN         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 121 12.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of TAURINE by FLATTER)
SCR  PORT TOWNSEND Aug01         (devaux ch)TORRES A 121 4.50 28% 2.50    
  (by UNCLE MO out of QUIET PLACE by TAPIZAR)
FAST N HAPPY Aug18 May28 Apr27 Mar25 Feb15 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 3.00 43% 1.30    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of ONE FAST FROG by FIRST SAMURAI)
GOLDENSHUGA Feb24 Dec31       (casse no)SANTANA JR 121 4.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of SHORE THING by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
UPSWELL         (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 15.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of UPHOLDER by HENNY HUGHES)
SAUCY SECRET Jul21 Jun17 May20     (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 121 20.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of TIZ MIZ SUE by TIZNOW)
MUSICAL PRAYER         (vaccarezza car)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 12.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of RIVER'S PRAYER by DEVON LANE)
CAUSE I'M WILD         (morse l)CHUAN MARTIN 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of WILD POPPY by EL PRADO (IRE))
10  FOXFIRE         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of SAFWAH by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
 
CD-9   09/24/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SECRET POCKET Aug19 Jun29 Jun02 Apr29 Mar24 (peitz c)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
ARRO SMASH Aug26 Jul30 Jul02     (bauer phil)CORRALES GERARDO 120 6.00    
TEN DAYS LATER Jan01 Nov26 Oct20 Oct01 Sep14 (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
NIGHT EFFECT Jun30 Jun02 May06 Apr01   (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 10.00    
HIGHLAND FALLS Aug26         (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 120 4.00 35% 1.80    
SAQEEL Sep03 Jul16 Jun10 Apr02 Mar19 (diodoro r)TORRES A 122 3.50    
HONED Oct30 Oct08 Sep17 Jul10   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
BRAMITO Aug20 Jul02       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 30% 2.30    
DAI VERNON Jul16 Jun22       (cox brad)SANTANA JR 118 4.50 9% 9.80    
 
CD-10   09/24/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MAJESTIC D'ORO Aug31 Aug14 Jul03 May05 Sep13 (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 4.00 9% 9.90    
FRANKEL BABY Aug19 Jul08 May27 Aug26 Aug09 (mcewen bi)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 118 30.00    
LAURA'S CHARM Jul22 Jun22 May28 Jan13 Dec22 (kerrick la)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00    
PROMISE OF HOPE Aug07 Jun11 May19 Dec26 Dec04 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
LADY GOLDSTART Aug19 Jul22 Jul07 Jun16 May14 (morey william )CHUAN MARTIN 121 2.50 42% 1.40    
LITTLE JEWEL Aug19 Jul07 May05 Apr15 Mar11 (vaccarezza ca)CANNON DECLAN 121 4.00 26% 2.90    
SHOWGIRL LYNNE B Jun17 May20 Mar25 Jan07 Dec03 (sharp joe)TORRES A 113 20.00    
MIMAJOON Sep12 Aug02 Jul06 Apr25 Mar16 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 121 20.00    
CURRENT CLIMATE Sep02 Jul22 Jun11 Apr15 Mar16 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 121 3.00    
SCR  ALTERED SHOT Aug06 Jun22 May12 Mar17 Feb24 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00    
SCR  FASHION RAGE Aug06 Jul08 Jun09 Apr23 Mar09 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 3.50    
SCR  PIPELINE GIRL Aug19 Jan29 Jan01 Oct25 Sep21 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.