Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - November 03, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (4/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/5)-(4/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2/5)-(4/2/5)-(4/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/2/5)-(3/1/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/2/5)-(3/1/4/6)-(3/5/10/8/1) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-2   WIN (3/1/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/4/6)-(3/1/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/4/6)-(3/1/4/6)-(3/1/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/1/4/6)-(3/5/10/8/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/1/4/6)-(3/5/10/8/1)-(5/12/3/7/11) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-3   WIN (3/5/10/8/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/5/10/8/1)-(3/5/10/8/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/5/10/8/1)-(3/5/10/8/1)-(3/5/10/8/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/5/10/8/1)-(5/12/3/7/11) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (3/5/10/8/1)-(5/12/3/7/11)-(1/7/2/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-4   WIN (5/12/3/7/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/12/3/7/11)-(5/12/3/7/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/12/3/7/11)-(5/12/3/7/11)-(5/12/3/7/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/12/3/7/11)-(1/7/2/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/12/3/7/11)-(1/7/2/4)-(3/5/2/1/10) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-5   WIN (1/7/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/2/4)-(1/7/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/2/4)-(1/7/2/4)-(1/7/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/7/2/4)-(3/5/2/1/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/7/2/4)-(3/5/2/1/10)-(6/1/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (3/5/2/1/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/5/2/1/10)-(3/5/2/1/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/5/2/1/10)-(3/5/2/1/10)-(3/5/2/1/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/5/2/1/10)-(6/1/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/5/2/1/10)-(6/1/3)-(10/7/9/2/1) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-7   WIN (6/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/3)-(6/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/3)-(6/1/3)-(6/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/3)-(10/7/9/2/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/1/3)-(10/7/9/2/1)-(4/7/1/10/3) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-8   WIN (10/7/9/2/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/7/9/2/1)-(10/7/9/2/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/7/9/2/1)-(10/7/9/2/1)-(10/7/9/2/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/7/9/2/1)-(4/7/1/10/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
CD-9   WIN (4/7/1/10/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/7/1/10/3)-(4/7/1/10/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/7/1/10/3)-(4/7/1/10/3)-(4/7/1/10/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/03/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FLIGHT TO PARIS Oct04 Jul27 Feb25 Jan28 Nov25 (arnold george )ORTIZ L 122 3.50    
2  WOWSERS Jun16 May25 May03 Apr07 Feb25 (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 122 5.00 22% 3.60    
3  MARMO         (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00    
4  DARING HOPE         (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 38% 1.60    
5  INNOCENT NYGHT Oct07 Sep16 Aug21 Jun26 May25 (michael brian)BEJARANO R 122 15.00 7% 14.20    
6  NO WHAT IFS         (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 122 8.00    
7  UP THE CREEK Jun06 Apr18 Feb14 Dec14 Nov16 (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 122 3.00    
 
CD-2   11/03/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ABADIN Sep28 Sep07 Aug07 Jul13 Jun07 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 14% 6.00    
2  HARVARD Aug30 Aug02 Jun29 May12 Apr28 (maker mi)SANTANA JR 120 6.00    
3  INVULNERABLE Oct09 Sep05 Jul22 Jun16 Jan28 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 1.60 43% 1.30    
4  TAGLIATELLE Sep28 Aug19 Jul13 Jun16 May25 (foster er)TORRES A 118 3.00 13% 6.90    
5  REFUAH Oct13 Jul18 Jul06 Jun14 May09 (sweezey kent)VAZQUEZ A 122 12.00    
6  GO THE DISTANCE Oct10 Jun07 May10 Apr14   (davis christop)ORTIZ L 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  FURIOUS ANGER Sep22 Jul18 Jun23 May30 Mar16 (romans dale)LANERIE J 120 12.00    
 
CD-3   11/03/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GODDESS OF WAR Oct16 Sep16 Sep05 Aug04 Jun27 (johnston la)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  OUTRAGEOUSLY Apr30 Mar20 Feb22 Jan17   (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
3  THREE POLKS Oct16 Sep19 Aug15 Jul07 May31 (ortiz alex)VAZQUEZ A 120 3.50 51% 1.00    
4  ROYAL BLOOD Oct16 Sep13 Jul20 Jun27 Nov19 (habeeb donald )ASHTON GAVIN 120 15.00    
5  MOON FLEET Sep20 Aug17 Jul13 May31 May04 (garcia genar)MONCADA IRVING 111 3.00 12% 7.20    
6  PERCEPTIVE Sep13 Aug17 Jul16 May30 May03 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 4.50    
7  STAY FAITHFUL Oct10 Sep25 Aug29 Aug14 Jul06 (short thomas)CALLEJA ANDRES 111 15.00    
8  GOLDBLOODED Oct05 Sep19 Aug26 Aug03 Aug27 (fern)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
9  MISS ESCAPADE Oct17 Sep25 Aug19 Apr07 Feb25 (santamaria car)ROMAN A 120 12.00    
10  TANGO ZULU Sep20 Aug24 Mar21 Feb24 Feb16 (wismer glen)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 5.00 11% 8.50    
 
CD-4   11/03/2024 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRAND STAN Oct03         (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 121 20.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of GRAND SLAM GIRL by GRAND SLAM)
2  TWO TODDIES IN         (nihei mich)CORRALES GERARDO 121 20.00    
  (by CONNECT out of ROSY SCENARIO by MALIBU MOON)
3  CLOUDY HOLIDAY Sep01 Jul22 Jun16 May18 Apr24 (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 8.00 14% 6.40    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of PATSY'S HOLIDAY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
4  AMBITION Jan13         (mackey wayne)MONCADA IRVING 114 15.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of INSPIRED by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
5  STORM READY Jul12 Jun15 May19 Apr13   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00 42% 1.40    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of GHOSTSLAYER by PRINCE OF FAME)
6  WARP NINE Sep08 Aug25 Dec15 Nov12 Oct26 (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of POWERTAP by TAPIT)
7  FREEDOM MAKER Oct10 Jun16       (thomas jonathan)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of LADY ASPEN by GRAND REWARD)
8  SICILIAN DEFENSE Jul05 Feb24 Jan13     (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 121 4.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of STROMBOLIAN by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
9  OSCARGOT Oct10 Jun30 May28     (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 124 12.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of WINE AND DYNE by DYNAFORMER)
10  FINN MCSORLEY Oct10 Dec15 Nov14     (pessin nei)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of GLORIOUS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
11  STRADIVARIAN Sep20 Aug26 Jul21 Nov22 Sep30 (forster t)GRAHAM J 121 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of FULL SWING by VERRAZANO)
12  FORT THOMAS Oct10 Sep08 Jul08 Jun08 May10 (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 121 3.50 21% 3.80    
  (by WAR FRONT out of BYE BYE BABY by GALILEO)
SCR  ELKO COUNTY Sep29 Sep02 Aug21 Jul14 Jun15 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 121 2.50    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of STRONGER THAN EVER by CONGRATS)
 
CD-5   11/03/2024 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOURBON SERENGETI Sep29 Aug08 Jun30 Dec17   (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 42% 1.40    
2  RUBIA Sep16 Aug21 Jun30 Jun11 May23 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  LITTLE BLAZE Sep18 Aug29 Jul14 Jun14 Apr27 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 4.50    
4  NURSEKRINGLEDANCES Sep18 Aug29 Aug10 Jan10 Dec13 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  SALLY O'MALLEY Sep14 Jun29 May03 Mar16   (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00    
6  GLORIETTE Sep13 Aug15 Jul29 Jun27 Jun02 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00    
7  SISTER KISSES Sep18 Aug24 Jun19 May11 Mar30 (garcia genar)TORRES A 120 3.00 25% 3.00    
 
CD-6   11/03/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST JIMMY Sep22 Sep07 Jul27 Jul05 Jun15 (forster grant )ORTIZ L 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  J. P. RACE Sep21 Jul20 Jun12 May25 Apr07 (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 120 8.00 6% 15.50    
3  VIVIR CON ALEGRIA (CHI) Sep27 Aug24 May25 Apr20 Mar30 (sweezey j )GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 35% 1.90    
4  CHIPOFFTHEOLDBLOCK Oct26 Sep25 Sep06 Aug11 Jul13 (lauer michael)ASHTON GAVIN 120 20.00    
5  BORN FLAWLESS Oct06 Sep13 Aug18 Jul29 Jun26 (shorter aaron)CHUAN MARTIN 120 8.00 26% 2.90    
6  GOODASIWONSWAS Sep22 Aug13 Jul10 Mar15 Feb10 (warpool shane)ELLIOTT JANE 120 20.00    
7  OUTLIER Sep27 Aug18 Jul15 Jun15 May30 (hiles rick)CORRALES GERARDO 120 6.00    
8  W W CANDY Sep12 Aug03 Jun30 Jun08 May04 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50    
SCR  PRO OXIDANT Aug31 Jun16 May16 Mar14 Jan19 (dutrow richard )LANERIE J 120 2.50    
10  BAYOU BENNY Sep19 Aug31 Aug17 Jul04 Jun08 (wilkes ia)TORRES A 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-7   11/03/2024 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($141K) 3 ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHIP CADET Aug18 Jul30 Jun11 May12   (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00 22% 3.60    
2  BEAR RIVER Oct06 Sep07 Aug11 Jul04 Jun13 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 122 6.00    
3  JOE SHIESTY Oct06 Sep07 Aug04 May01 Mar23 (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
4  BILLAL Sep18 Aug04 Jul06 Jun08 May05 (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00    
SCR  HEDWIG Oct06 Sep07 Aug11 Feb17 Nov11 (harty eo)RODRIGUEZ A 120 6.00    
6  VALENTINE CANDY Sep21 Aug23 Jul26 Jun08 Apr27 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 122 1.80 38% 1.70    
 
CD-8   11/03/2024 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STANDOUTSENSATION Aug22 Jul28 Jun01 May03 Apr05 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  PAWKY Oct05 Jul14 Mar23 Jan31 Oct07 (joseph saffi)TORRES A 121 8.00 5% 17.60    
3  TIDAL TACTICS Sep05 Aug13 Jul14 Jun04 May14 (lauer mic)BERMUDEZ E 121 30.00    
4  SMOOTH WAVES Oct10 Sep07 Jul27 Jun21 Oct25 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
5  ABEYANCE Oct06 Sep06 Aug02     (harty eoin)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
6  STEAMPUNK Sep15 Aug29 Aug10 Jun12 Oct15 (davis chri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
7  HEART SPIN Oct20 Sep05 Jul27 Jun15 Mar11 (navarrete an)MONCADA IRVING 114 3.50 33% 2.00    
8  ADRASTEIA Oct09 Sep05 Aug04 Jul15 Jun15 (bogle fergus)ORTIZ L 120 8.00    
9  FANTASTICAL Sep14 Jul27 Feb07 Jan03 Dec08 (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00 6% 15.60    
10  SPARTAN QUEEN Oct07 Sep07 Jun13 Mar21 Feb15 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 34% 2.00    
11  HATTIE BLOOM Sep25 Aug04 Jul14 Jun22 Jun06 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
12  SILK Apr25 Feb28 Jan17 Dec20   (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 10.00    
SCR  BERNA DITTY Oct08 Sep17 Aug16 Jul20 Jun21 (greenhi)DE CRUZ 118 30.00    
SCR  HARVEY'S PRINCESS Oct17 Sep19 Aug23 Jul25 Jul13 (salas marcelino)MCKEE J 121 30.00    
SCR  FOR LOVE AND HONOR Oct10 Aug31 Jul21 May27 May04 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00    
SCR  CONDONE Sep27 Jun08 Apr24 Apr07 Feb14 (oliver vict)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 15.00    
SCR  PARADISE LANE Sep29 Aug05 Dec31 Nov03 Oct01 (mott william)TORRES A 118 3.50    
SCR  LIGHTBULB MOMENT Oct08 Jun08 Apr26 Mar28 Dec07 (arnold georg)MONCADA IRVING 114 20.00    
SCR  CLASSY'N CONNECTED Sep26 Aug05 Jun16 Apr20 Mar28 (drury j)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.00    
 
CD-9   11/03/2024 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CULTURE WAR Oct05 Sep01       (medina ro)TORRES A 119 12.00 21% 3.70    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of MORE FUN AGAIN by ARCH)
2  BOB MO Oct11 Sep12       (crichton )LEPAROUX R 119 20.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of CRY AND CATCH ME by STREET CRY (IRE))
3  AUTHENTIC GALLOP Oct05 Aug31 Jul20     (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of GALLOPING AMI by VICTORY GALLOP)
4  VOLT Oct12 Aug22       (casse ma)SANTANA JR 119 3.00 31% 2.20    
  (by TAPIT out of MY WANDY'S GIRL by FLOWER ALLEY)
5  SUCCESSFUL UNION Oct17 Sep18       (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of SWEET SUCCESS by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
6  TREMENDOUSLY Oct06         (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of FLIT by LYPHARD)
7  DR. SAIKALI Oct06         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50 26% 2.80    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of SAPPHIRE SPITFIRE by AWESOME AGAIN)
8  FEVER NIGHT Oct09 Sep21       (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by CURLIN out of POR QUE' TE QUIERO by A.P. INDY)
9  MASTER CONTROLLER Oct17 Sep01       (vanden britt)EMIGH A 119 20.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of KEY IS TO WIN by DIXIE UNION)
10  BURNING GLORY Sep27         (mott i)ORTIZ L 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of HAIL by TAPIT)
11  WHISKEY SHOT Oct09 Aug26       (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of LORELEI TRUE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.