Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - November 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-6   WIN (7/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00  7 $10.22 $6.22 156%
CD-7   DD (7/3)-(8/5/9/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00  7-9 $24.47 $16.47 206%
CD-9   TRI (6/7/8/4)-(6/7/8/4)-(6/7/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00  6-4-8 $19.72 $7.72 64%
    SFT (6/7/8/4)-(6/7/8/4)-(6/7/8/4)-(6/7/8/4) 24 $0.10 $2.40  6-4-8-7 $11.54 $9.14 381%
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   11/19/2023 5940ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:24 :491 1:141 1:384   1:512   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  ENCLOSURE 3 5 52½ 52½ 52½ 31½ 11¼ (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 2.77  
  (by ARROGATE out of COGNITIVE by UNCLE MO)
1  VANISHED 1 1 1½ 11 11 1½ 21¼ (pletcher)SANTANA JR 121 1.80 51% 1.00 3.58 P
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of ELUSIVE PEARL by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
2  SHIRL'S DELIGHT 2 4 41 31½ 41½ 2½ 32¼ (eggleston tim)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00 13.19  
  (by TONALIST out of DECRYPT by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
5  MEDAGLIA FOREVER 5 3 31 42 31 45 48½ (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 121 1.20 19% 4.30 0.60  
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of FOREVER UNBRIDLED by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
4  RAGGITY SAND 4 2 2½ 21 21 55½ 59 (pessin l)CANNON DECLAN 121 12.00 28.40  
  (by UNION RAGS out of ISLAND SAND by TABASCO CAT)
 
CD-2   11/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($32K) Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:28
See original race card.
:213 :444 :563     1:091   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  DON'T WAIT UP 2 4 11 12   12½ 12½ (garcia genaro)BEJARANO R 121 15.00 5.08  
7  SOLIDIFY 5 5 65 54½   54½ 22½ (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 8.00 14% 5.90 8.64 P
1  IMPLEMENTATION 1 6 31½ 32   22½ 32½ (joseph a)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50 22% 3.50 1.75 S
4  NIFTY 3 1 42 43   34 44¾ (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 15.37  
6  PRISONER 4 3 21 22   44 58½ (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.60 37% 1.70 1.13  
8  GROUP EIGHTEEN 6 2 53 67½   69½ 617½ (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00 18.03  
SCR  TEE BURNS               (hartman ch)CORRALES GERARDO 121 8.00    
SCR  VULCAN               (sims p)ACHARD ALEX 121 8.00    
 
CD-3   11/19/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 1:56
See original race card.
:241 :483 1:134 1:392   1:461   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  STONE HARBOR 1 2 1½ 1½ 11 14 13 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 3.77  
4  BRILLIANT MAN 3 5 55½ 54½ 56 24 23 (reed r)MCKEE J 119 10.00 12.89  
6  ACTION HERO 4 4 43 31½ 33½ 34½ 35 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.00 33% 2.00 0.69 S
3  QUEBRANCHO 2 1 2½ 2½ 21 46½ 412¼ (gutierre)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 33% 2.00 2.89  
7  MOR JAZZ 5 3 32½ 42 44 510½ 532½ (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 10.73  
SCR  B WAYNE               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 1.60    
SCR  GOTTA HAVE DREAMS               (hamilton )HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
 
CD-4   11/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:24
See original race card.
:214 :452 :574     1:112   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THE PRINCESS SAYS 1 5 1nk 1nk   12½ 12½ (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 4.50 2.06  
7  RUBY FOO 5 3 32 44   45½ 22½ (walden wil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00 20% 4.00 4.14 P
6  ROYAL BLOOD 4 1 43 32½   35 32½ (habeeb donald )SAEZ GABRIEL 118 12.00 8.89  
3  BELPERRON 2 4 2nk 2nk   22½ 43¾ (manley steve)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 22% 3.60 2.37  
4  CODE FOR SUCCESS 3 2 56 58   510½ 511 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 120 5.00 2.39  
SCR  JENNIFER MY LOVE               (davis christ)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50    
SCR  SUMMER OF MISCHIEF               (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 2.50    
 
CD-5   11/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 2:52
See original race card.
:22 :46 :582     1:112   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  POUNCE 4 5 21 2½   2nk 1hd (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 119 10.00 5.45  
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of BOUNCY by TWIRLING CANDY)
1  PRINCESS IS OLIVIA 1 1 11 1½   1nk 2hd (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.00 25% 3.00 3.50 P
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of MISS GUIDED by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
10  MISS JEOPARDY 9 3 73¼ 53½   33 33¾ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 2.26  
  (by ENTICED out of WORD ASSOCIATION by BENCHMARK)
3  PAM PAM 3 9 83¾ 64½   53¾ 46 (moquett )SANTANA JR 119 5.00 39% 1.60 5.72  
  (by ARMY MULE out of J LA TACHE by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
8  SYBARITE 7 8 42½ 32   43¼ 56¾ (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 119 20.00 12.77  
  (by TAPITURE out of NO ACRONYMS by MILWAUKEE BREW)
11  SPLASH MASTER 10 6 94¼ 77½   76¾ 67 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00 5% 19.00 11.20  
  (by MASTERY out of SEA ROAD by TALE OF THE CAT)
2  SHEZTHEFACTOR 2 7 31½ 43   64¼ 710 (hamilton sara)CANNON DECLAN 119 4.00 8% 12.20 9.72  
  (by THE FACTOR out of MY LUCKY SPELL by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
7  EVOCATION 6 10 106¼ 810   88¾ 810¼ (cara)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 20.00 53.76  
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of MY SUGAR by CONGRATS)
9  MISCHIEF JAC 8 2 63 913½   913¼ 917¼ (morey e)FELIX E 119 8.00 7% 12.60 15.85  
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of JACALLY by BOLD EXECUTIVE)
6  MAHJONG GIRL 5 4 53 1014   1019¾ 1038¾ (wismer s)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 17.30  
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of PERFECT PREDICTION by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
SCR  RYBAKINA               (zanelli dante)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of PORT CHARLOTTE by BLAME)
SCR  SAFECRACKER SUE               (adams nanc)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of UPPER BRASS by HARD SPUN)
SCR  THE BIG CALHOUNA               (santamaria ca)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of NUTMEG by BOLD EXECUTIVE)
 
CD-6   11/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:20
See original race card.
:231 :461 1:12 1:244   1:382   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  FAITHFUL KING 6 3 2½ 21 2½ 13 11 (watkins m)MCKEE J 120 6.00 73% 0.40 4.11 W
2  COX CANYON 2 6 68½ 68½ 53½ 23 21 (o'connor robe)CANNON DECLAN 118 12.00 20.61  
3  LIAM THE BRAVE 3 2 41½ 31½ 42½ 33½ 34½ (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 5% 19.00 2.99 S
4  YONO 4 4 31½ 43 64 56 47¾ (hiles jeff)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 1.41  
1  CARMICHAEL 1 1 1½ 11 1½ 44 510½ (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00 4.59  
5  SCHMOOZIN 5 5 52½ 53½ 32 69½ 628 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 8.00 6.84  
SCR  MOHAAFETH               (dorochenko)CORRALES GERARDO 121 6.00 ★    
SCR  TREATY               (casse no)SANTANA JR 121 2.50    
 
CD-7   11/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:221 :454 :573     1:094   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  CARBONE 9 1 11 1½   13½ 18 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 4.50 17% 4.80 2.56 W
  (by MITOLE out of TREASURE IN HEAVEN by STREET SENSE)
7  GOLDBRICK 7 2 21 2½   23½ 28 (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00 9.12  
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of VOUSSOIR by ARCH)
2  MOONLIGHT ROAD 2 4 64½ 56   36½ 39¾ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 10.00 5% 19.00 9.36 S
  (by MALIBU MOON out of EARLYBIRD ROAD by CHEROKEE RUN)
5  MIYAGI 5 6 32½ 34   47 411½ (catalano w)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 21% 3.80 1.50  
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
6  FAMOUS FINAL SCENE 6 3 76½ 78½   511 517 (von don)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 53.95  
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of BONITA CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
10  DECATUR STREET 10 8 99 89   611 620 (mott will)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00 12.35  
  (by STREET SENSE out of CARAMEL SNAP by SMART STRIKE)
4  SHAKIN LOOSE 4 9 87 99½   711¼ 720 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 6.00 ★ 24.35  
  (by MUNNINGS out of NEW SHAKER by BERNSTEIN)
3  DANNER 3 5 53 68   811¼ 820¼ (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 119 12.00 25.92  
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of PIONEER QUEEN by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
1  HIGH HEADED 1 10 1012 1014½   1015¾ 921½ (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 119 12.00 24.28  
  (by HIGHTAIL out of MERCY ANN by DISTORTED HUMOR)
8  YO BANANA BOY 8 7 43 46   913¼ 1026½ (heath g)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 40% 1.50 6.84  
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of TIZSOMETHINGROYAL by TIZWAY)
 
CD-8   11/19/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:20
See original race card.
:223 :453 :572     1:034   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  HAPPY AM I 2 2 1nk 2nk   13 16¼ (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00 5.26  
7  DEVINE CHARGER 4 1 2nk 1nk   23 26¼ (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 12.00 5% 19.00 12.72 P
9  RARIFY 5 6 52 53½   46½ 36¾ (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 33% 2.00 2.59 S
14  SOUPER EXPLOSIVE 9 9 94¼ 74½   57½ 47¼ (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 12% 7.60 3.36  
12  LITTLE BLAZE 7 3 41½ 31   34½ 58½ (vaccarezza ca)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 8.00 19.15  
13  RUTHLESS RUA 8 8 83¾ 95¾   610½ 613¾ (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00 5.18  
1  YOLANDA WHO 1 7 72¼ 85½   812 715 (sharp joe)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 33.86  
6  FIRING BULLETS 3 5 62¼ 64   710½ 815½ (casse mar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00 11.38  
11  LITTLE MOMBO 6 4 3½ 42½   913½ 922¾ (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 120 3.50 30% 2.40 5.58  
SCR  JUST A CARE (IRE)               (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
SCR  KICK A RHYME (IRE)               (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00    
SCR  MORNIN' BOSS               (hernandez)CORREA L 118 20.00    
SCR  NUMERO SEIS               (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
SCR  PROUD MARY               (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
 
CD-9   11/19/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($62K) 2 ALL PT- 4:50
See original race card.
:24 :49 1:143 1:393   1:46   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  CASH ONLY 4 1 2½ 21 1nk 13 14¼ (walden wil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 46% 1.20 0.71 W
4  CATHY'S BOY 3 8 810½ 86½ 54¾ 55½ 24¼ (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 6% 17.20 7.00 P
8  RUNNIN MUNNIN 6 4 31½ 42½ 32 35 38 (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00 12% 7.40 14.72 S
7  JACKED 5 3 1½ 11 2nk 23 49 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 14% 5.90 3.57  
2  MANFREDI 2 5 42½ 31½ 42¼ 45 59½ (reed r)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00 16.20  
9  COASTAL BRINK 7 7 76 75½ 76¼ 68 610 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 6.00 13.38  
1  KARLWITHANARL 1 6 55 54 65¾ 710½ 723½ (medina robert)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00 16.62  
10  MIDNIGHT MAESTRO 8 2 66 65 811¾ 850½ 8100 (stewart da)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 15.00 26.44  
SCR  KNOW WHO YOU ARE               (cowans william )ACHARD ALEX 119 10.00    
SCR  TIS CHARMING               (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.