Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - November 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/5)-(1/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/5)-(6/1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/5)-(6/1/7)-(6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/7)-(6/1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/7)-(6/1/7)-(6/1/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/7)-(6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/1/7)-(6/3)-(3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-3   WIN (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/3)-(6/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/3)-(3/7) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (6/3)-(3/7)-(3/1/2/9/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-4   WIN (3/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/7)-(3/7) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3/7)-(3/1/2/9/11) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (3/7)-(3/1/2/9/11)-(7/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-5   WIN (3/1/2/9/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/1/2/9/11)-(3/1/2/9/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/1/2/9/11)-(3/1/2/9/11)-(3/1/2/9/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/1/2/9/11)-(7/3) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (3/1/2/9/11)-(7/3)-(8/5/9/2) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
CD-6   WIN (7/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/3)-(7/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (7/3)-(8/5/9/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/3)-(8/5/9/2)-(9/11/14/7) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-7   WIN (8/5/9/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/5/9/2)-(8/5/9/4/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/5/9/2)-(8/5/9/4/2)-(8/5/9/4/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (8/5/9/2)-(9/11/14/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/5/9/2)-(9/11/14/7)-(6/7/8/4) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-8   WIN (9/11/14/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/11/14/7)-(9/11/14/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/11/14/7)-(9/11/14/7)-(9/11/14/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/11/14/7)-(6/7/8/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-9   WIN (6/7/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/7/8/4)-(6/7/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/7/8/4)-(6/7/8/4)-(6/7/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/19/2023 5940ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VANISHED Oct19 Sep16 Jul15 Jun10 May13 (pletcher)SANTANA JR 121 1.80 51% 1.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of ELUSIVE PEARL by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
2  SHIRL'S DELIGHT Sep26 Mar19 Feb19 Jan15 Dec15 (eggleston tim)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00    
  (by TONALIST out of DECRYPT by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
3  ENCLOSURE Aug31 Jun04 Mar18     (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50    
  (by ARROGATE out of COGNITIVE by UNCLE MO)
4  RAGGITY SAND Oct07 Sep02 Jun10 Apr29 Mar25 (pessin l)CANNON DECLAN 121 12.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of ISLAND SAND by TABASCO CAT)
5  MEDAGLIA FOREVER Oct22 Jun24 Apr29 Mar25 Jan29 (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 121 1.20 19% 4.30    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of FOREVER UNBRIDLED by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
CD-2   11/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($32K) Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IMPLEMENTATION Oct14 Sep13 Aug03 Apr15 Oct27 (joseph a)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50 22% 3.50    
SCR  VULCAN Nov17 Oct21 Sep20 Aug04 Jun30 (sims p)ACHARD ALEX 121 8.00    
3  DON'T WAIT UP Oct23 Aug17 Jul07 Jun18 Jun01 (garcia genaro)BEJARANO R 121 15.00    
4  NIFTY Nov05 Aug13 Jul14 May12 Apr20 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00    
SCR  TEE BURNS Nov09 Oct18 Sep29 Aug09 Jul26 (hartman ch)CORRALES GERARDO 121 8.00    
6  PRISONER Aug18 Jul09 Jun10 May13 Mar19 (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.60 37% 1.70    
7  SOLIDIFY Nov09 Oct18 Sep22 Sep07 Jul22 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 8.00 14% 5.90    
8  GROUP EIGHTEEN Oct19 Sep21 Aug12 Jul21 Jun22 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00    
 
CD-3   11/19/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 1:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  GOTTA HAVE DREAMS Oct28 Sep09 Aug28 Aug05   (hamilton )HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
2  STONE HARBOR Oct22 Sep03       (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00    
3  QUEBRANCHO Nov01 Oct01 Sep03     (gutierre)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 33% 2.00    
4  BRILLIANT MAN Oct26 Sep28 Sep09     (reed r)MCKEE J 119 10.00    
SCR  B WAYNE Sep15 Aug13       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 1.60    
6  ACTION HERO         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.00 33% 2.00    
7  MOR JAZZ Oct26 Sep17 Aug12     (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
 
CD-4   11/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THE PRINCESS SAYS Nov04 Oct23 Sep23 Jul31 Jun02 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 4.50    
SCR  JENNIFER MY LOVE Oct22 Sep03 Aug13 Jul09 Jun25 (davis christ)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50    
3  BELPERRON Nov01 Sep21 Aug31 Aug09 Jul20 (manley steve)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 22% 3.60    
4  CODE FOR SUCCESS May25 Apr20 Jan25 Dec14 Nov06 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 120 5.00    
SCR  SUMMER OF MISCHIEF Nov01 Sep28 Dec31 Nov25 Oct21 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 2.50    
6  ROYAL BLOOD Nov01 Oct12 Jul31 Jul09 Jun02 (habeeb donald )SAEZ GABRIEL 118 12.00    
7  RUBY FOO May03 Mar10 Dec31 Dec04 Oct24 (walden wil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00 20% 4.00    
 
CD-5   11/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 2:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCESS IS OLIVIA Oct26 Sep16       (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.00 25% 3.00    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of MISS GUIDED by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
2  SHEZTHEFACTOR Oct21 Sep27       (hamilton sara)CANNON DECLAN 119 4.00 8% 12.20    
  (by THE FACTOR out of MY LUCKY SPELL by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
3  PAM PAM Oct12         (moquett )SANTANA JR 119 5.00 39% 1.60    
  (by ARMY MULE out of J LA TACHE by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
4  POUNCE         (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 119 10.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of BOUNCY by TWIRLING CANDY)
SCR  RYBAKINA         (zanelli dante)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of PORT CHARLOTTE by BLAME)
6  MAHJONG GIRL         (wismer s)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of PERFECT PREDICTION by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
7  EVOCATION         (cara)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 20.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of MY SUGAR by CONGRATS)
8  SYBARITE         (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of NO ACRONYMS by MILWAUKEE BREW)
9  MISCHIEF JAC         (morey e)FELIX E 119 8.00 7% 12.60    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of JACALLY by BOLD EXECUTIVE)
10  MISS JEOPARDY         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
  (by ENTICED out of WORD ASSOCIATION by BENCHMARK)
11  SPLASH MASTER         (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MASTERY out of SEA ROAD by TALE OF THE CAT)
SCR  THE BIG CALHOUNA         (santamaria ca)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of NUTMEG by BOLD EXECUTIVE)
SCR  SAFECRACKER SUE         (adams nanc)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of UPPER BRASS by HARD SPUN)
 
CD-6   11/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CARMICHAEL Nov02 Oct12 Sep15 Aug04 Jun01 (cano juan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00    
2  COX CANYON Oct28 Sep15 Apr26 Apr08 Mar29 (o'connor rober)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00    
3  LIAM THE BRAVE Sep11 Aug06 Jul19 Jun10 May24 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  YONO Oct23 Sep27 Sep10 Aug10 Jul22 (hiles jeff)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00    
5  SCHMOOZIN Aug19 May19 Apr21 Feb21 Jan15 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 8.00    
SCR  MOHAAFETH Oct08 Sep14 May22 May06 Jan21 (dorochenko)CORRALES GERARDO 121 6.00 ★    
7  FAITHFUL KING Nov02 Oct05 Sep23 Sep09 Aug05 (watkins m)MCKEE J 120 6.00 73% 0.40    
SCR  TREATY Oct12 Sep20 Aug06 Jun15 Mar19 (casse no)SANTANA JR 121 2.50    
 
CD-7   11/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIGH HEADED         (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of MERCY ANN by DISTORTED HUMOR)
2  MOONLIGHT ROAD Oct07         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of EARLYBIRD ROAD by CHEROKEE RUN)
3  DANNER         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 119 12.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of PIONEER QUEEN by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
4  SHAKIN LOOSE Aug27 Aug06 Jul01 Jun17   (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 6.00 ★    
  (by MUNNINGS out of NEW SHAKER by BERNSTEIN)
5  MIYAGI Oct07         (catalano w)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 21% 3.80    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
6  FAMOUS FINAL SCENE         (von don)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of BONITA CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
7  GOLDBRICK Oct07         (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of VOUSSOIR by ARCH)
8  YO BANANA BOY Oct16 Sep14       (heath g)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 40% 1.50    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of TIZSOMETHINGROYAL by TIZWAY)
9  CARBONE         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 4.50 17% 4.80    
  (by MITOLE out of TREASURE IN HEAVEN by STREET SENSE)
10  DECATUR STREET         (mott will)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of CARAMEL SNAP by SMART STRIKE)
 
CD-8   11/19/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YOLANDA WHO Nov09 Oct15 Sep24 Jun03 Mar25 (sharp joe)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
SCR  MORNIN' BOSS Oct03 Sep07 Aug31 Aug10 Jul16 (hernandez)CORREA L 118 20.00    
SCR  KICK A RHYME (IRE) Nov01 Sep17 Aug17     (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00    
SCR  PROUD MARY Oct22 Aug31 Aug06 Jun29   (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
5  HAPPY AM I Oct05 Aug06 Jul01 May28 May02 (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
6  FIRING BULLETS Oct22 Aug05 Jul22 Jun10 Jan12 (casse mar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00    
7  DEVINE CHARGER Oct01 Aug12 Jul16 May20 Sep09 (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  NUMERO SEIS Sep21 Aug19 Jun15 May20 Oct09 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
9  RARIFY Oct14 Oct27 Aug21 Jul24   (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 33% 2.00    
SCR  JUST A CARE (IRE) Oct22 Apr14 Mar25 Feb18 Jun30 (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
11  LITTLE MOMBO Sep21 Jul19 Jun18 Jun12 May26 (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 120 3.50 30% 2.40    
12  LITTLE BLAZE Oct14 Aug07 Jul15 Jun11 May06 (vaccarezza ca)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 8.00    
13  RUTHLESS RUA Oct26 Sep10 Aug13 Jul16 Nov24 (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
14  SOUPER EXPLOSIVE Sep24 Aug05 Jan21 Dec23 Nov26 (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 12% 7.60    
 
CD-9   11/19/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($62K) 2 ALL PT- 4:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KARLWITHANARL Oct18         (medina robert)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00    
2  MANFREDI Oct22         (reed r)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
SCR  KNOW WHO YOU ARE Oct07 Aug27       (cowans william )ACHARD ALEX 119 10.00    
4  CATHY'S BOY         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 6% 17.20    
SCR  TIS CHARMING Oct22 Oct01       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50    
6  CASH ONLY Oct01 Aug30       (walden wil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 46% 1.20    
7  JACKED Sep13         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 14% 5.90    
8  RUNNIN MUNNIN Oct18 Sep22       (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00 12% 7.40    
9  COASTAL BRINK Oct28 Sep13 Aug27 Aug05 Jun18 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 6.00    
10  MIDNIGHT MAESTRO Oct29 Oct14 Sep17     (stewart da)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.