Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Sunday - October 22, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (6/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/2)-(6/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7/2)-(6/7/2)-(6/7/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/7/2)-(4/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/7/2)-(4/1/3)-(5/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
KEE-2   WIN (4/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/3)-(4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/3)-(5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/1/3)-(5/4)-(7/1/9/8) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
KEE-3   WIN (5/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/4)-(5/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/4)-(7/1/9/8) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (5/4)-(7/1/9/8)-(2/1/6/10) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
KEE-4   WIN (7/1/9/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/9/8)-(7/1/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/1/9/8)-(7/1/9/8)-(7/1/9/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/1/9/8)-(2/1/6/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/1/9/8)-(2/1/6/10)-(4/1/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
KEE-5   WIN (2/1/6/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/1/6/10)-(2/1/6/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/6/10)-(2/1/6/10)-(2/1/6/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/1/6/10)-(4/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/1/6/10)-(4/1/3)-(9/3/8) 36 $1.00 $108 
KEE-6   WIN (4/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/3)-(4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/3)-(9/3/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/1/3)-(9/3/8)-(11/4/7/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
KEE-7   WIN (9/3/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/3/8)-(9/3/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/3/8)-(9/3/8)-(9/3/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (9/3/8)-(11/4/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (9/3/8)-(11/4/7/8)-(3/10/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
KEE-8   WIN (11/4/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (11/4/7/8)-(11/4/7/2/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (11/4/7/8)-(11/4/7/2/8)-(11/4/7/2/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (11/4/7/8)-(3/10/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
KEE-9   WIN (3/10/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/10/1)-(3/10/5/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/10/1)-(3/10/5/1/2)-(3/10/5/1/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   10/22/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($69K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STONE HARBOR Sep03         (sharp joe)ROSARIO JOEL 119 8.00    
2  MIDNITE LUMBERJACK Sep22 Aug31 Aug06     (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 5% 19.00    
3  FOOTPRINT         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00    
4  TITLE CONTENDER Sep22         (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 3.00    
SCR  THIS TIME BLUE Sep22         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
6  TOWN HALL Aug05         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.00 64% 0.60    
7  T B TWELVE ALWAYS Sep24         (sweezey j )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 8% 12.30    
8  TIS CHARMING Oct01         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
 
KEE-2   10/22/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SASSY WALKER Sep15 Jul21 Jun25 May20 Apr21 (d'amato phili)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 6.00 26% 2.90    
  (by MUNNINGS out of SASINI by FASTNET ROCK)
2  MEDAGLIA FOREVER Jun24 Apr29 Mar25 Jan29 Nov26 (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of FOREVER UNBRIDLED by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
3  STAGFLATION Oct08 Sep15 Aug18     (baker jam)LEPAROUX R 121 5.00 16% 5.40    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of REAL POINT by POINT OF ENTRY)
4  FLASHY LASS Aug28 Aug01       (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 121 1.80 30% 2.30    
  (by STREET SENSE out of OPEN HOUSE by DEPUTY MINISTER)
5  COLETTE'S JOY Oct01 Aug31 Aug05 Jun04   (d'amato ph)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00    
  (by CONNECT out of SOLE PROPRIETOR by BINALONG)
6  PERCEPTIVE Sep22 Jun02       (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 121 20.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of HONE IN by SMART STRIKE)
7  MISINTENTION Sep22 Sep23 Sep04 Jul31   (mott i)GRAHAM J 121 15.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of CROWNED by BERNARDINI)
 
KEE-3   10/22/2023 5940ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KOUFAX Sep14 Jun30 Jun02 Mar16 Jan28 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 2.50    
2  DERBY CODE Sep07 Feb11 Dec30 Oct27 Sep17 (sharp joe)ROSARIO JOEL 122 12.00    
SCR  ETHICAL JUDGEMENT Sep21 Aug20 Jul15 Nov13 Oct20 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60    
4  DEVIL VISION Sep09 Aug12 Mar04 Nov13 Oct20 (robertso)SANTANA JR 122 12.00 16% 5.10    
5  ALLEGE Sep17 Jul23 Jun25 May29 May03 (margolis step)GARCIA MARTIN 122 6.00 39% 1.50    
6  THE REDS Sep14 Jul21 Apr28 Mar11 Jan28 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50    
SCR  ICARUS Sep17 Aug12 Jun22 May25 May05 (simms j)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00    
 
KEE-4   10/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($43K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY BEST DAY EVER Sep15         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 15% 5.70    
SCR  BIRDIE ROSE Oct12 Sep15 Aug26 Aug01 Jul08 (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 121 8.00    
3  LADY ROBO         (holden dar)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 20.00    
4  INSIGHTFUL MISS Aug26 Jul31       (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 121 15.00    
5  SOULFUL TARA Sep23 Aug28 Jul31 May26   (miller f)COURT K 121 10.00    
6  CHANEL POINT Sep15 Sep13 Aug20 Jul31   (catalano)RODRIGUEZ A 121 6.00    
7  BELLE OF THE BALL Jan21 Apr10 Feb06 Jan15   (walden william)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 1.80 48% 1.10    
8  MAMBA OUT Sep14 Jul29 Jul08 Jun18 May02 (hill f)CANUTO THIAGO 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  TESHIMA Sep23 Aug05 Apr23 Mar16 Jan18 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00 7% 13.40    
10  MRS. SPEAKER Sep27 Aug26 Aug01 Jun27 Jun06 (hartman chri)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 15.00    
 
KEE-5   10/22/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($140K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOP GUN GIRL Jul21 Jun16 Apr15 Nov20 Sep14 (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 123 5.00 20% 3.90    
2  CARIMBA Sep24 Jul05 Apr27     (hernandez rey)MOJICA O 123 4.00 21% 3.70    
3  ALL THAT MAGIC Sep23 Aug06 Jul28 Jun28 Jun09 (crook-demasi kath)SAEZ LUIS 125 6.00    
SCR  WHISKEY AND RYE Sep10 Jun23 May19 Feb24 Feb02 (robb joh)SANTANA JR 121 20.00    
5  CURRENT CLIMATE Sep24 Sep02 Jul22 Jun11 Apr15 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 121 8.00    
6  MARISSA'S LADY Sep18 Aug14 Jul05 May29 Jul16 (morey e)BEJARANO R 121 12.00 20% 3.90    
7  MINER'S QUEEN Sep24 Sep02 Jul07 Jun10 May05 (hernandez rey)NAVAS YOEL 114 20.00    
8  QUEROBIN DOURADA Sep09 Aug06 Jun15 Apr15 Feb24 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 8.00    
9  GOIN' GOOD Sep24 Aug05 Jul07 Jun09 May07 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 3.50    
10  OPENING BUZZ Apr15 Mar17 Feb25 Jan28 Dec01 (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 121 10.00 8% 12.10    
SCR  LADY GOLDSTART Sep24 Aug19 Jul22 Jul07 Jun16 (maker michael )ROSARIO JOEL 121 15.00    
 
KEE-6   10/22/2023 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($110K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOREAU Aug29 Jun30 May14 Apr22   (mckeever andr)VELAZQUEZ R 118 5.00 26% 2.80    
2  GRAND ASPEN Sep07 Aug01 Jul07 Aug05 Jun05 (pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 122 6.00    
3  REDEEMER May14 Oct12 Aug28 Jul30   (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 12.00 11% 7.80    
4  LEADING CONTENDER Sep03 Jul22 Aug13     (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 1.40 39% 1.60    
5  ESCAPOLOGIST Sep23 Aug13 May14 Apr15 Mar25 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00    
6  SEEKING UNITY Oct08 Jun03 May06 Apr01 Mar11 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 30.00    
SCR  BLACK RAIN Sep14 Aug20       (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.00    
 
KEE-7   10/22/2023 7920ft TURF RC12 FIRM Rood Purse ($300K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HENRIETTA TOPHAM Sep09 Aug06 Jul08 Jun04 May21 (mulcahy geoff)GRAHAM J 121 20.00    
  (by LEMON DROP KID out of MISS SILVER BROOK by COZZENE)
SCR  VIVA LA RED Oct01 Sep01 Aug06 Jun18 May21 (biancone )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 30.00    
  (by TEXAS RED out of PATRIOTIC VIVA by WHYWHYWHY)
3  VERGARA Sep09 Aug03 Jun17 May20 Oct15 (motion graha)ROSARIO JOEL 123 1.80 21% 3.90    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of FIGURE OF BEAUTY by STREET CRY (IRE))
SCR  BE UP Jul04 Jun11 Apr27 Mar31 Mar15 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 20.00    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of EMERALD BEECH by MARIA'S MON)
5  PERSONAL BEST Sep09 Jul22 Apr28 Apr01 Jan28 (mcgaughey clau)PRAT FLAVIEN 123 4.00    
  (by TAPIT out of WAR FLAG by WAR FRONT)
6  ROMAGNA MIA (GB) Aug12         (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 121 6.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of WASHINGTON BLUE by RIP VAN WINKLE (IRE))
7  LOVED REIKO Oct01 Sep10 Jul23 May18 Oct27 (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 121 12.00    
  (by TAPIT out of ODELIZ by FALCO)
8  LOVELY PRINCESS Aug27 Jul08 May27 Apr22 Nov25 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00 14% 6.30    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of PRINCESS MARIAH by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
9  TRANSIENT (GB) Sep09 Jul15 Apr01 Mar04 Jan28 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 40% 1.50    
  (by SEA THE STARS (IRE) out of AUTUMN LEAVES by MUHTATHIR (GB))
 
KEE-8   10/22/2023 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PHANTOM SPEED         (stidham michae)ROSARIO JOEL 119 10.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of GHOSTSLAYER by PRINCE OF FAME)
2  LEGALIZE         (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 ★    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of ALLEZ MARIE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
3  DROPTOP CADDY         (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 119 20.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of JUMBY BAY by CITY ZIP)
4  CALL PROTECTION         (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 20% 4.10    
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of CONQUEST BAD UNCLE by UNCLE MO)
5  MYSTIK DAN         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of MA'AM by COLONEL JOHN)
6  SKELLY ROAD         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 6.00    
  (by MITOLE out of RODE WARRIOR by QUALITY ROAD)
7  ETHAN ENERGY         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 19% 4.20    
  (by UNCLE MO out of SASS AND CLASS by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
8  MANFREDI         (reed r)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of LEMON SUGAR by LEMON DROP KID)
9  LINEBACKER         (blair jordan)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 15.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of JINNY JUMP UP by JUMP START)
10  MAINTAIN Sep07 Aug05       (mccutchen )LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 30.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of RELAX by SMART STRIKE)
11  AGOO Sep17         (beckman whi)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00 39% 1.50    
  (by MUNNINGS out of GRANDACIOUS by GRAND SLAM)
12  GOLDENTOWN         (forster t)GRAHAM J 119 20.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of MEDAGLIA GOLD by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  EMPIRE'S CLASSIC         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of PRINCESS ROI by ROI CHARMANT)
SCR  NO JUDGMENT Sep17         (brennan terry)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of NO VACANCY by QUALITY ROAD)
SCR  KING ANTHONY Sep03         (hernandez)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 119 15.00    
  (by TALE OF VERVE out of GEM GEM by TAPIT)
SCR  SHAKIN LOOSE Aug27 Aug06 Jul01 Jun17   (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of NEW SHAKER by BERNSTEIN)
 
KEE-9   10/22/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($110K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PROUD MARY Aug31 Aug06 Jun29     (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  HURRICANE DEBBIE Oct01 Jan04 Nov05 Sep08 May05 (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00 ★    
3  QUEEN OF THE MUD (IRE) Sep21 Aug31       (motion graha)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 3.00 43% 1.30    
4  CORNER KICK Sep29 Aug31 Jul29 Jun15 May16 (rone mike)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
5  JUST A CARE (IRE) Apr14 Mar25 Feb18 Jun30   (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 ★    
6  ALL I WANT IS YOU Sep22 Aug18 Jul21 Apr23   (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 8.00    
7  JENNIFER MY LOVE Sep03 Aug13 Jul09 Jun25   (davis christop)ROSARIO JOEL 120 12.00    
8  D'ORO STREET Sep07 Jun18 May28 Apr22 Mar17 (diodoro )SANTANA JR 118 20.00    
9  EMPIRE OF MY OWN Oct01 Aug27 Aug12 Jul16 Jun11 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00    
10  GET TWISTED Sep15         (navarrete )LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 6.00 31% 2.30    
SCR  DULCIA Sep10 Nov05 Oct07 Sep10   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00    
12  FIRING BULLETS Aug05 Jul22 Jun10 Jan12 Dec09 (casse mark)VELAZQUEZ R 118 12.00    
SCR  MY SWEET AFFAIR Aug19 Aug12 Jul15 Jun18 May03 (weaver george)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.50    
SCR  UP TO SOMETHING Aug12 Jul16 Nov20 Oct09 Sep08 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
SCR  DEVINE CHARGER Oct01 Aug12 Jul16 May20 Sep09 (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 4.50    
SCR  KENDAL GRACE Sep13 Aug06 Jul13 Jun01 Mar31 (acevedo israel)BEJARANO R 121 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.