Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 27, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/3)-(2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/3)-(4/1/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/1/3)-(4/1/2)-(6/7) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-2   WIN (4/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/2)-(4/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/2)-(4/1/2)-(4/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/2)-(6/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/1/2)-(6/7)-(8/1/7/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-3   WIN (6/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/7)-(6/1/5/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7)-(6/1/5/7)-(6/1/5/7) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (6/7)-(8/1/7/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/7)-(8/1/7/6)-(7/8/3/1) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-4   WIN (8/1/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/1/7/6)-(8/1/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/1/7/6)-(8/1/7/6)-(8/1/7/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/1/7/6)-(7/8/3/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/1/7/6)-(7/8/3/1)-(9/7/5/2) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-5   WIN (7/8/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/8/3/1)-(7/8/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/8/3/1)-(7/8/3/1)-(7/8/3/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/8/3/1)-(9/7/5/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/8/3/1)-(9/7/5/2)-(3/6/1/2) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-6   WIN (9/7/5/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/7/5/2)-(9/7/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/7/5/2)-(9/7/5/2)-(9/7/5/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/7/5/2)-(3/6/1/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (9/7/5/2)-(3/6/1/2)-(1/8/9/4/2) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-7   WIN (3/6/1/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/1/2)-(3/6/1/2/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/6/1/2)-(3/6/1/2/4)-(3/6/1/2/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/6/1/2)-(1/8/9/4/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/6/1/2)-(1/8/9/4/2)-(4/1/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-8   WIN (1/8/9/4/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/8/9/4/2)-(1/8/9/4/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/8/9/4/2)-(1/8/9/4/2)-(1/8/9/4/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/8/9/4/2)-(4/1/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/8/9/4/2)-(4/1/7)-(1/10/2/3/5) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-9   WIN (4/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/7)-(4/1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/7)-(4/1/7)-(4/1/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/7)-(1/10/2/3/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-10   WIN (1/10/2/3/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/10/2/3/5)-(1/10/2/3/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/10/2/3/5)-(1/10/2/3/5)-(1/10/2/3/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/27/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GLOBAL QUEEN Sep26         (tomlinson michael)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 10% 9.10    
2  SCARLET RED SKY Oct30         (mcgee paul)MONCADA IRVING 112 3.50 48% 1.10    
3  BULLET BABY Oct23         (radcliffe robe)ELLIOTT JANE 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  FUN TO RUN Oct30 Oct02 Aug31 Jul27   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50    
5  BILLIE CEE Oct10 Sep08       (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00    
SCR  UNCORK IT Nov04 Oct02 Sep06 Aug11   (hughes g)CEDILLO ABEL 119 4.50    
7  AIRFORCE LIGHTNING Nov06 Oct13 Sep19 Aug26   (puhich mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 5.00    
 
CD-2   11/27/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST JIMMY Nov03 Sep22 Sep07 Jul27 Jul05 (forster grant)MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00 19% 4.20    
2  LIAM THE BRAVE Oct30 Oct14 Sep19 Aug19 Jun21 (esquivel jesus)SANJUR SANTO 121 10.00 18% 4.40    
3  SANT' ANTIMO Oct30 Oct13 Jun07 May16 May02 (esquivel jesus)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00    
4  TIWANAKU Nov02 Sep30 Sep12 Jul16 Jun15 (santamari)TORRES A 121 3.00 38% 1.60    
5  UNSTABLE PRINCE Nov13 Oct23 Sep21 Aug17 Aug11 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 121 2.50    
SCR  TAPSASIONAL Sep27 Aug18 Jun15 Apr26 Mar30 (santamaria car)ROMAN A 121 6.00    
7  KATTATH Oct30 May10 Feb23 Nov24 Nov09 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 4.00    
 
CD-3   11/27/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EPIC BATTLE Sep22 Aug17 Jul21 Jun19 May30 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 ★    
2  ROCKETEIGHTYEIGHT Oct31 Sep28 Aug25 Jul06 May24 (matthews randy)SANJUR SANTO 118 5.00    
3  ON MY HONOR Nov07 Sep22 Aug03 Jun16 Mar16 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
4  BEBEDOURO Nov07 Sep22 Aug17 Jul20 Jun16 (lobo h)ROMAN A 118 5.00    
5  GAMBLERS TAIL Oct31 Oct10 Sep14 Jun02 Apr10 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 118 4.50 ★    
6  PROTEGE Oct31 Sep18 Aug10 Jul15 Jul15 (johnston d)VAZQUEZ A 120 3.00 64% 0.60    
7  ZECA DIABO Nov06 Oct10 Sep15 Aug29 Aug01 (caramori eduar)MACHADO LUAN 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-4   11/27/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEFAULT Oct31 Sep27 Sep09 Jul07 May30 (hernandez )CORRALES GERARDO 121 3.00 24% 3.20    
2  SWEET CHABLIS Oct26 Sep13 Jan19 Nov18 Aug12 (calhoun wi)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.50    
3  JERSEY GOLD Nov10 Oct24 Oct12 Sep17 Aug31 (nesbitt amy)ORTIZ ALVIN 121 30.00    
SCR  BAYTOWN KITTY CAT Nov10 Sep26 Sep11 Aug28 Aug10 (edwards willia)ELLIOTT JANE 118 20.00    
5  SHE'S JERSEY TUFF Nov10 Nov01 Sep25 Jul13 Feb24 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 121 6.00    
6  CHIQUITA MOSCA Nov02 Sep29 Sep19 Aug21 Jul27 (pino v)MACHADO LUAN 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  TORTUGA ISLAND Oct31 Oct19 Oct05 Sep17 Jun04 (becker scott)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 11% 8.40    
8  COCKTAIL CUTIE Oct31 Oct17 Oct05 Sep12 Jul30 (manley st)CAMACHO JR 118 5.00 39% 1.60    
9  ELLA FRANCES Nov01 Oct09 Aug05 Apr30 Mar27 (beckman d )GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.00    
 
CD-5   11/27/2024 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIMPLY COMPLICATED Nov06 Oct29 Oct03 Sep18 Sep04 (paye jose)CORREA L 120 15.00 5% 18.30    
2  MIRTH 'N MERRIMENT Nov06 Sep17 Jul23 Jun23 Jun11 (forster gran)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 20.00    
3  PUNCHY GIRL Sep19 Aug17 Jun27 May23 May03 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 120 2.50 15% 5.50    
4  CUMBERLAND FALLS Aug24 Jul04 Jun14 Apr19 Mar15 (begley greg)DOYLE SOPHIE 120 20.00    
5  LADY MERCEDES Nov08 Sep29 Sep05 Aug18 Jul13 (vance tho)TORRES A 120 5.00    
6  MERCY WARREN Nov08 Sep15 Jun06 Feb09 Jan13 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.00    
7  FOREVER HOME Nov09 Oct09 Sep20 Sep03 Aug07 (simms j)GEROUX FLORENT 120 4.50 32% 2.10    
8  SEQUIN LADY Nov09 Oct09 Sep20 Aug04 Jun07 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 120 3.50 19% 4.30    
 
CD-6   11/27/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FEATHERS ROAD Nov10 Oct25 Oct05 Sep19 Aug14 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 121 2.50    
2  ARROGATES SPIRIT Nov04 Oct18 Sep05 Aug08 Jun16 (sweezey ke)MONCADA IRVING 114 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  CRIMINAL DEFENSE Nov10 Oct22 Sep29 Sep10 Aug17 (barnett bobb)BARBOSA CARLOS 121 30.00    
4  EXPRESS CRUISER Nov10 Sep22 Jul13 Jun12 May19 (williams co)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 15.00    
5  DRIP D'ORO Oct30 Oct01 Sep11 Aug18 Jul24 (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 10.00 8% 11.20    
SCR  SOUPERSILVERDOLLAR Oct16 Sep09 Aug14 Jul30 Jul15 (helmbrecht willia)FELIX E 121 12.00    
7  AMERICAN MEMORIES Nov01 Oct11 Sep05 Aug17 Jul25 (pino v)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 18% 4.50    
8  HEY BOSS Nov10 Oct08 Aug27 Jul22 Jun10 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 5.00    
9  SIXWILLBERICH Nov10 Oct18 Sep18 Aug19 Jul11 (roberson denni)MACHADO LUAN 121 3.50 51% 0.90    
10  TRANSCENDENTAL Oct07 Jul07 Jun01 May26 Mar04 (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 15.00    
 
CD-7   11/27/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  D'ORO BOY         (cano muno)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of LEGAL MIND by BELLAMY ROAD)
2  COLONEL CALIENTE         (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ARMY MULE out of ONE HOT SENORITA by SHARP HUMOR)
3  BARNES         (baffert bob)GARCIA MARTIN 119 1.20 51% 1.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ALL AMERICAN DREAM by AMERICAN PHAROAH)
4  ABSOLUTELY HOT         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 20.00 ★    
  (by PROMISES FULFILLED out of HOT FUN by LATENT HEAT)
5  KINGSMERE         (miller da)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of IN A SNIT by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
6  INNOVATOR Sep02 Aug10 Jul13 Jun20   (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 28% 2.60    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of INSPIRED by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  CARIBBEAN DREAM         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.50    
  (by TAPIT out of GOLDEN MISCHIEF by INTO MISCHIEF)
8  GREAT MOMENT Nov01         (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 15.00    
  (by FLATTER out of JOSAKA by SMART STRIKE)
9  SINISTER SMILE         (puhich mike)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 30.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of MAKING MARK MONEY by SMART STRIKE)
10  COUNTER ELITE         (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 119 20.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of CHAUNCEY by JIMMY CREED)
11  LOTTERY WIN Nov01         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 15.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of RARE ARTICLE by GHOSTZAPPER)
 
CD-8   11/27/2024 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SALLY O'MALLEY Nov03 Sep14 Jun29 May03 Mar16 (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.50 34% 2.00    
2  EASY RED Jan25 Sep29 Aug13 Jul02 May27 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  YO PUEDO Oct23 Jul21 Jun15 May11 Aug05 (medina ro)TORRES A 120 15.00    
4  YES TO CHAMPAGNE Nov09 Oct24 Sep20 Jul27 Jun29 (shorter aaron)VAZQUEZ A 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD Oct26 Sep14 Aug11 Jul06 Jun07 (dutrow ric)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50    
6  CANDY LOVER Oct31 Sep18 Aug29 Jul27 May23 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
7  ANTIQUE SILVER Nov09 Oct31 Sep02 Aug11 Jul27 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 120 3.00    
8  HUSH IT HONEY Oct30 May03 Apr06 Mar21 Feb03 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 118 4.00 27% 2.70    
9  SISTER KISSES Nov03 Sep18 Aug24 Jun19 May11 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 6.00 16% 5.40    
 
CD-9   11/27/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RUTHLESS RUA Oct26 Aug23 Jun02 May16 Apr20 (wilensky s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 20% 4.00    
2  MISS ENCHANTED Oct09 Aug31 Aug03 Jul06 Jun06 (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 2.00    
SCR  ALTERED SHOT Nov09 Sep21 Aug31 Jul22 Jun23 (esquivel jesus)SANJUR SANTO 120 15.00    
4  QUEEN'S MARTINI Oct17 Sep24 May20 Mar02 Jan01 (moquett )SANTANA JR 118 4.00 21% 3.70    
5  STEEL RACER Oct11 Jun09 Mar27 Feb22 Feb11 (esquivel jesus)SAEZ LUIS 120 15.00    
6  NAY V BELLE Nov14 Oct20 Aug23 Jun28 May25 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50    
7  CHARRIERE Sep21 Jul28 Jun26 May17 Mar23 (mckeever )TORRES A 120 12.00 12% 7.00    
 
CD-10   11/27/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GUN BARREL Sep28 Sep08 Aug10     (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 122 2.00 46% 1.20    
2  AIR IT OUT Oct20 Aug17 Aug08 Jun02 May11 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 3.50 15% 5.90    
3  THEZELENSKYYFACTOR Oct30 Aug26 Nov30 Nov01 Sep29 (morse rand)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  FREE AMERICA Nov07 Sep28 Mar07     (jones philli)CALLEJA ANDRES 115 30.00    
5  PHENOMENAL DREAM Nov10 Oct20 Sep22 Aug04 Jun07 (shorter aaron)VAZQUEZ A 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  COWBOY LUKE Nov04 Oct21 Sep22 Aug17 Jul24 (quartarol)CAMACHO JR 122 20.00    
7  ROPE A DOPE Oct25 Sep22 Mar13     (drury thomas)MONCADA IRVING 115 8.00    
8  INDY CHARGE Nov05 Oct16 Sep08 Jul18 Jun27 (medina ro)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 8.00    
SCR  DANCING NOAH Oct16 Sep18 Jan11 Dec14 Nov26 (taylor brent)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 20.00    
10  MUNYHUNGRY Nov06 Oct20 Oct06 Sep26 Aug18 (parker donald )SAEZ GABRIEL 122 4.00 18% 4.70    
11  LUCCHESI Nov10 Oct20 Sep28 Sep12 Aug17 (habeeb donald )ASHTON GAVIN 122 10.00    
SCR  GRAND ILLUSION Oct09 Aug06       (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 122 8.00    
13  CHANCES TAKEN Nov04 Nov13       (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 117 8.00    
SCR  ODORICO         (caramori edua)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 124 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.