Handicappers' Race Results
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Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 14, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
CD-1   Win (5/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 0 $6.98  
CD-2   Win (5/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $2.76 $2.76  
CD-3   Win (5/1/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 1 $5.12 $5.12  
CD-4   Win (8/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $8.82  
CD-5   Win (8/4/5/6/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 8 1 1 $6.48 $6.48  
CD-6   Win (6/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 0 $5.90  
CD-7   Win (2/9/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 6 1 0 $4.84  
CD-8   Win (6/1/10/13) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 1 $19.64 $19.64 11.64
CD-9   Win (8/4/9/5/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 9 1 1 $10.76 $10.76 0.76
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   11/14/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:244 :491 1:133 1:393   1:463   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  ULTIMATE STRIKE 2 2 42 32 32 31 12¼ (santamaria car)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.00 2.49  
5  HOPE JOE'S RIGHT 4 4 2½ 2½ 1½ 1nk 22¼ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 33% 2.00 2.87 P
4  COME TO PAPA 3 1 1½ 1½ 2½ 2nk 32½ (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 2.50 21% 3.80 1.86 S
6  AWOL 5 3 32 42 42 44½ 411 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 2.81  
1  GRAND KINGDOM 1 5 53 54½ 512 519½ 530¾ (chavez manu)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00 5% 19.00 16.71  
SCR  WISE COUNSEL               (mccarthy michael)ORTIZ L 121 3.00    
 
CD-2   11/14/2024 6270ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:29
See original race card.
:233 :48 1:122 1:381   1:583   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  TENNESSEE LAMB 5 2 21 2½ 1nk 14½ 14¼ (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 121 1.40 40% 1.50 0.38 W
7  ELKO COUNTY 6 4 65½ 65 64¾ 24½ 24¼ (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 121 3.00 30% 2.30 5.09 P
4  CHURNING BERNI 4 1 55 54½ 44 36½ 37¾ (pessin l)LANERIE J 118 10.00 22.96  
3  MAGNIFICENT RAGS 3 5 43 43½ 54¼ 614 418 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 121 5.00 10.97  
1  GREER'S GOLD 1 6 32½ 32½ 32½ 411½ 519½ (mott i)TORRES A 121 10.00 5% 19.00 13.43  
2  BABY AVERY 2 3 11 1½ 2nk 513 620¾ (vance thoma)TORRES A 118 4.50 6.69  
SCR  SPEED INSTITUTE               (salas marcelin)MONCADA IRVING 117 15.00    
 
CD-3   11/14/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:58
See original race card.
:223 :453 1:112     1:183   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  APPEAL DENIED 1 4 1½ 1nk   12½ 11¼ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 26% 2.80 1.56 W
4  ONCOMING TRAIN 4 6 55 54½   32½ 21¼ (foley greg)MONCADA IRVING 113 8.00 7.60  
5  KANT BEAT THE ROCK 5 1 31 31   53¼ 33 (jacobson da)CAMACHO JR 120 3.50 32% 2.10 2.23 S
6  READY PURSUIT 6 5 65½ 64¾   64¾ 33 (gonzalez reina )SOSA LAUREANO 120 12.00 13.64 DH
3  MONTEREY PENINSULA 3 2 41½ 42½   22½ 53¼ (martinez kelli)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00 11% 8.50 18.03  
2  WOODYTHEBIDSPOTTER 2 3 2½ 2nk   43 68½ (rouck l)ELLIOTT JANE 120 8.00 7% 14.20 9.93  
7  GLOBAL STAGE 7 7 78 76¾   78¾ 718 (cano mu)NOLASCO JONATHAN 110 10.00 4.42  
SCR  METALLIC MAN               (matthews randy)BEJARANO R 120 3.00    
 
CD-4   11/14/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 F PT- 2:27
See original race card.
:23 :47 1:124     1:193   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  BAYTOWN BOUJEE 2 5 43 31½   2½ 11¼ (mcentee paul)LEONARD KILLIAN 119 8.00 3.41  
5  BLUE DAZZLER 3 1 31½ 21   1½ 21¼ (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00 1.88  
6  SWEET STAR 4 2 54½ 44   43 32¼ (bahena ismael)CANUTO THIAGO 119 12.00 14.52  
8  HIGH SUMMER 6 3 11½ 11   3½ 44 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.00 44% 1.30 1.40  
7  ROMANY ROAD 5 4 67 67½   512½ 517¼ (williamson bri)TORRES A 119 12.00 12% 7.60 9.48  
1  SHARP SPEED 1 6 21½ 56½   615½ 631½ (tomlinson mic)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00 12% 7.60 14.99  
SCR  REECHO               (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50    
SCR  TALENT SHOW               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50    
 
CD-5   11/14/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 2:57
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:114     1:25   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  VERY BOLD 8 6 44 45   2nk 14½ (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 119 3.50 53% 0.90 2.24 W
5  REDACTED 5 1 31½ 32   1nk 24½ (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 6% 16.40 2.04 P
9  RAZORCAT 9 4 54¼ 69   44½ 38½ (schultz lin)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00 9.67  
4  DUAL INCOME 4 2 2nk 1½   3½ 48¾ (orseno f)ORTIZ L 119 3.00 18% 4.60 3.40  
2  FREE ADVICE 2 5 76¼ 710½   55 511 (humphries thomas)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 12.01  
1  SKYNET 1 7 913¾ 916½   811 617 (barrett roddina )ELLIOTT JANE 119 15.00 44.16  
7  INVISIBLE 7 8 65¼ 57½   67 720½ (orseno joseph)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00 11.49  
3  MESSI THE GREAT 3 3 1nk 2½   79 823¼ (arias alfonso)AYALA ISAIAS 119 20.00 5% 19.00 42.75  
6  HONOR BO 6 9 88¼ 811½   914 929¾ (vance d)TORRES A 119 10.00 5% 19.00 17.95  
SCR  BABY MAX               (danner kelsey)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00    
SCR  SOCK IT TO ME               (stephen anthony)JIMENEZ ALBIN 119 20.00    
 
CD-6   11/14/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:26
See original race card.
:25 :492 1:133 1:384   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  BETTE DAVIS 3 1 1½ 1½ 1½ 13 13¼ (tomlinson mi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 1.95  
1  I HAD THAT ONE TOO 1 5 44 42 43 34½ 23¼ (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50 26% 2.90 3.79 P
6  EQUUS 6 3 2½ 2½ 2½ 23 35¼ (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 2.50 42% 1.40 1.77 S
4  ROSARIO'S PRAYER 4 2 32 32 32 44½ 45¾ (torres conc)TORRES A 123 8.00 6% 16.70 7.90  
5  LADAN 5 6 66 64½ 66½ 58½ 59¾ (bogle fergus)ORTIZ L 121 4.00 6.54  
2  STORM BAY 2 4 54½ 53 55½ 69 610 (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.50 15.93  
 
CD-7   11/14/2024 3300ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:55
See original race card.
:222 :453       :58   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  DONUT GOD 5 2 11½ 12   12½ 12¼ (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00 1.42  
2  EL PRESTIGIO 1 1 31½ 22   22½ 22¼ (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 3.00 71% 0.40 2.05 P
4  MOTEL PATEL 3 5 63¼ 53½   35½ 36½ (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 5% 19.00 9.02 S
9  SPICED UP 8 7 74¼ 75¾   47 46¾ (mott i)TORRES A 119 6.00 5% 19.00 7.39  
11  GETTINBY 10 10 108¾ 98¾   910¼ 56¾ (morse l)VAZQUEZ A 119 15.00 50.12  
12  PAIR OF SOCKS 11 9 87¼ 88¼   810 67 (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 ★ 8.03  
3  MIRACLE ON CENTRAL 2 4 98¼ 1010¼   1012¼ 79½ (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 5% 19.00 17.70  
5  OUTOFPI 4 3 21½ 32   57½ 811¾ (gonzalez reina )SOSA LAUREANO 119 12.00 89.98  
8  GRAYDARIA 7 8 53 63¾   69 912¼ (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 51.19  
7  BON TEMPS 6 6 42½ 43   79 1013 (lukas wayne)CHUAN MARTIN 119 15.00 38.96  
10  TIP TOE JOE 9 11 1112¾ 1116¼   1116¾ 1117 (vance thomas )CONCEPCION AXEL 119 30.00 67.64  
SCR  DONTWORRYBOUTNOTHN               (ward wesley )CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00    
 
CD-8   11/14/2024 3630ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:25
See original race card.
:22 :451 :574     1:043   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAKEUP 1 4 41½ 42   31½ 1¼ (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 2.50 26% 2.80 8.82 W
6  TOP GUN GIRL 5 1 21 3½   2½ 2¼ (ward wesley )CORRALES GERARDO 120 1.40 50% 1.00 2.21 P
12  CURRENT CLIMATE 7 3 31 2nk   1½ 31¾ (foster eric)ORTIZ L 120 10.00 5.34  
16  NAY V BELLE 9 8 72¾ 72¾   65 44¼ (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 7.30  
10  CONNIE K 6 2 11 1nk   42 54¾ (morse l)VAZQUEZ A 120 20.00 5% 19.00 25.52  
3  MUCHO MACHO GIRL 3 6 52 62¼   54½ 65½ (stewart dall)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00 18.26  
13  CHANDANA 8 10 87¼ 85¾   88 76¾ (morse l)BEJARANO R 120 15.00 5% 19.00 23.93  
17  ERVADEAN 10 5 62¼ 52¼   76 89 (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 ★ 2.08  
2  YAMILE'S 2 9 1011¼ 910¾   99 99½ (miller davi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00 51.43  
4  JILL JITTERBUG 4 7 98¾ 1011¼   1011 1011½ (walsh d)SAEZ LUIS 120 15.00 19.47  
SCR  BEDAZZLE 'EM               (mott i)TORRES A 118 4.00    
SCR  FLATTER ME SILLY               (pessin l)MACHADO LUAN 120 15.00    
SCR  KRISPY RICE               (walsh d)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00    
SCR  LOUDER THAN WORDS               (granitz anthony)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00    
SCR  MISS ENCHANTED               (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 2.50    
SCR  SAMAY (PER)               (arias alfonso)BEJARANO R 120 10.00    
SCR  STELLA TERESA               (wojczynski jus)MONCADA IRVING 115 20.00    
 
CD-9   11/14/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:243 :49 1:142 1:412   1:482   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  ITSINMYBLOOD 8 2 2½ 2nk 11½ 12 1½ (mckeever andrew)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00 5% 19.00 4.38 W
7  SHOTGUN 6 7 63 65¼ 44 32½ 2½ (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 8.00 11.34  
4  DESPERATE PROPOSAL 3 5 41½ 51¼ 21½ 22 31¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 19% 4.30 2.00 S
1  KICKING CLEAR 1 6 51½ 41¼ 54 46 48 (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 7.89  
5  G. ERIK 4 3 31 31 32 59½ 515½ (von donni)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 5% 19.00 5.91  
6  CAVANAL 5 4 74½ 86¼ 78¼ 611½ 615½ (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 17.60  
2  GRAND MORNING (IRE) 2 9 98 98¾ 911¼ 717½ 728 (helmbrecht willi)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 5% 19.00 13.79  
10  BALTORO 9 8 85½ 75¾ 89¾ 819½ 834¼ (danner kelsey)MONCADA IRVING 112 6.00 7.59  
8  SPURIOUS 7 1 1½ 1nk 64¼ 934½ 969¾ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 53% 0.90 7.48  
SCR  MOR SUCCESS               (demeritte lar)LEONARD KILLIAN 119 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.