Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 14, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-8   WIN (6/1/10/13) 4 $2.00 $8.00  1 $19.64 $11.64 146%
    EXA (6/1/10/13)-(6/1/17/10/13) 16 $2.00 $32.00  1-6 $63.66 $31.66 99%
CD-9   WIN (8/4/9/5/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00  9 $10.76 $0.76 8%
    DD (6/1/10/13)-(8/4/9/5/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00  1-9 $71.69 $51.69 258%
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   11/14/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:244 :491 1:133 1:393   1:463   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  ULTIMATE STRIKE 2 2 42 32 32 31 12¼ (santamaria c)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.00 2.49  
5  HOPE JOE'S RIGHT 4 4 2½ 2½ 1½ 1nk 22¼ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 33% 2.00 2.87 P
4  COME TO PAPA 3 1 1½ 1½ 2½ 2nk 32½ (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 2.50 21% 3.80 1.86 S
6  AWOL 5 3 32 42 42 44½ 411 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 2.81  
1  GRAND KINGDOM 1 5 53 54½ 512 519½ 530¾ (chavez ma)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00 5% 19.00 16.71  
SCR  WISE COUNSEL               (mccarthy micha)ORTIZ L 121 3.00    
 
CD-2   11/14/2024 6270ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:29
See original race card.
:233 :48 1:122 1:381   1:583   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  TENNESSEE LAMB 5 2 21 2½ 1nk 14½ 14¼ (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 121 1.40 40% 1.50 0.38 W
  (by TONALIST out of TENNESSEE WHISKEY by PERSIAN TURBAN (IRE))
7  ELKO COUNTY 6 4 65½ 65 64¾ 24½ 24¼ (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 121 3.00 30% 2.30 5.09 P
  (by GUN RUNNER out of STRONGER THAN EVER by CONGRATS)
4  CHURNING BERNI 4 1 55 54½ 44 36½ 37¾ (pessin l)LANERIE J 118 10.00 22.96  
  (by BERNARDINI out of ABUNDANT FLURRY by MIDSHIPMAN)
3  MAGNIFICENT RAGS 3 5 43 43½ 54¼ 614 418 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 5.00 10.97  
  (by UNION RAGS out of MAGNIFICENT SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
1  GREER'S GOLD 1 6 32½ 32½ 32½ 411½ 519½ (mott william)TORRES A 121 10.00 5% 19.00 13.43  
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of GREER LYNN by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
2  BABY AVERY 2 3 11 1½ 2nk 513 620¾ (vance tho)TORRES A 118 4.50 6.69  
  (by RUNHAPPY out of CHARMAINE'S LEGACY by MR. GREELEY)
SCR  SPEED INSTITUTE               (salas marcel)MONCADA IRVING 117 15.00    
  (by FROSTED out of HONOR INDY by TO HONOR AND SERVE)
 
CD-3   11/14/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:58
See original race card.
:223 :453 1:112     1:183   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  APPEAL DENIED 1 4 1½ 1nk   12½ 11¼ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 26% 2.80 1.56 W
4  ONCOMING TRAIN 4 6 55 54½   32½ 21¼ (foley greg)MONCADA IRVING 113 8.00 7.60  
5  KANT BEAT THE ROCK 5 1 31 31   53¼ 33 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 120 3.50 32% 2.10 2.23 S
6  READY PURSUIT 6 5 65½ 64¾   64¾ 33 (gonzalez rein)SOSA LAUREANO 120 12.00 13.64 DH
3  MONTEREY PENINSULA 3 2 41½ 42½   22½ 53¼ (martinez kell)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00 11% 8.50 18.03  
2  WOODYTHEBIDSPOTTER 2 3 2½ 2nk   43 68½ (rouck l)ELLIOTT JANE 120 8.00 7% 14.20 9.93  
7  GLOBAL STAGE 7 7 78 76¾   78¾ 718 (cano juan )NOLASCO JONATHAN 110 10.00 4.42  
SCR  METALLIC MAN               (matthews randy)BEJARANO R 120 3.00    
 
CD-4   11/14/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 F PT- 2:27
See original race card.
:23 :47 1:124     1:193   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  BAYTOWN BOUJEE 2 5 43 31½   2½ 11¼ (mcentee pau)LEONARD KILLIAN 119 8.00 3.41  
5  BLUE DAZZLER 3 1 31½ 21   1½ 21¼ (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00 1.88  
6  SWEET STAR 4 2 54½ 44   43 32¼ (bahena ismael)CANUTO THIAGO 119 12.00 14.52  
8  HIGH SUMMER 6 3 11½ 11   3½ 44 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.00 44% 1.30 1.40  
7  ROMANY ROAD 5 4 67 67½   512½ 517¼ (williamson b)TORRES A 119 12.00 12% 7.60 9.48  
1  SHARP SPEED 1 6 21½ 56½   615½ 631½ (tomlinson m)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00 12% 7.60 14.99  
SCR  REECHO               (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50    
SCR  TALENT SHOW               (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50    
 
CD-5   11/14/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 2:57
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:114     1:25   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  VERY BOLD 8 6 44 45   2nk 14½ (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 119 3.50 53% 0.90 2.24 W
  (by UNION RAGS out of SWEET REVENGE by FLEMINGS)
5  REDACTED 5 1 31½ 32   1nk 24½ (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 6% 16.40 2.04 P
  (by HONOR CODE out of DELICATUS by DISTORTED HUMOR)
9  RAZORCAT 9 4 54¼ 69   44½ 38½ (schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00 9.67  
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of HOLD HER TIGHT by PROUD CITIZEN)
4  DUAL INCOME 4 2 2nk 1½   3½ 48¾ (orseno joseph )ORTIZ L 119 3.00 18% 4.60 3.40  
  (by ENTICED out of CAMILLE GAREY by STREET CRY (IRE))
2  FREE ADVICE 2 5 76¼ 710½   55 511 (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 12.01  
  (by KANTHAROS out of FREE REIN by UNBRIDLED)
1  SKYNET 1 7 913¾ 916½   811 617 (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 119 15.00 44.16  
  (by YOSHIDA out of SKY SHAFT by MINESHAFT)
7  INVISIBLE 7 8 65¼ 57½   67 720½ (orseno jose)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00 11.49  
  (by UNKNOWN out of BET SHE WINS by FIRST SAMURAI)
3  MESSI THE GREAT 3 3 1nk 2½   79 823¼ (arias alfonso)AYALA ISAIAS 119 20.00 5% 19.00 42.75  
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of SAVOUR THE MOMENT by LEMON DROP KID)
6  HONOR BO 6 9 88¼ 811½   914 929¾ (vance thomas)TORRES A 119 10.00 5% 19.00 17.95  
  (by HONOR A. P. out of SMARA by STORM CAT)
SCR  BABY MAX               (danner kelsey)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of LEMON GAL by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  SOCK IT TO ME               (stephen antho)JIMENEZ ALBIN 119 20.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of NOBLE READY by MORE THAN READY)
 
CD-6   11/14/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:26
See original race card.
:25 :492 1:133 1:384   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  BETTE DAVIS 3 1 1½ 1½ 1½ 13 13¼ (tomlinson )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 1.95  
1  I HAD THAT ONE TOO 1 5 44 42 43 34½ 23¼ (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50 26% 2.90 3.79 P
6  EQUUS 6 3 2½ 2½ 2½ 23 35¼ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 2.50 42% 1.40 1.77 S
4  ROSARIO'S PRAYER 4 2 32 32 32 44½ 45¾ (torres co)TORRES A 123 8.00 6% 16.70 7.90  
5  LADAN 5 6 66 64½ 66½ 58½ 59¾ (bogle fergus)ORTIZ L 121 4.00 6.54  
2  STORM BAY 2 4 54½ 53 55½ 69 610 (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.50 15.93  
 
CD-7   11/14/2024 3300ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:55
See original race card.
:222 :453       :58   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  DONUT GOD 5 2 11½ 12   12½ 12¼ (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00 1.42  
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SWEET KISSES by CARPE DIEM (FR))
2  EL PRESTIGIO 1 1 31½ 22   22½ 22¼ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 3.00 71% 0.40 2.05 P
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of BARTLETT NARROWS by FLATTER)
4  MOTEL PATEL 3 5 63¼ 53½   35½ 36½ (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 5% 19.00 9.02 S
  (by VOLATILE out of SCAT'S LASSIE by SCAT DADDY)
9  SPICED UP 8 7 74¼ 75¾   47 46¾ (mott william)TORRES A 119 6.00 5% 19.00 7.39  
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of CARDAMON by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
11  GETTINBY 10 10 108¾ 98¾   910¼ 56¾ (morse l)VAZQUEZ A 119 15.00 50.12  
  (by PETROV out of NEVER ENDS by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
12  PAIR OF SOCKS 11 9 87¼ 88¼   810 67 (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 ★ 8.03  
  (by VEKOMA out of WINNING SAGA by TALE OF THE CAT)
3  MIRACLE ON CENTRAL 2 4 98¼ 1010¼   1012¼ 79½ (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 5% 19.00 17.70  
  (by KARAKONTIE out of CHARCUTERIE by SOLDAT)
5  OUTOFPI 4 3 21½ 32   57½ 811¾ (gonzalez rein)SOSA LAUREANO 119 12.00 89.98  
  (by JERSEY TOWN out of PAHIATUA by TRIBAL RULE)
8  GRAYDARIA 7 8 53 63¾   69 912¼ (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 51.19  
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of GRANDARIA by CURLIN)
7  BON TEMPS 6 6 42½ 43   79 1013 (lukas wayne)CHUAN MARTIN 119 15.00 38.96  
  (by BRAVAZO out of WINNING IMAGE by SOUTHERN IMAGE)
10  TIP TOE JOE 9 11 1112¾ 1116¼   1116¾ 1117 (vance thoma)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 30.00 67.64  
  (by FROSTED out of GOLD STAR MAMA by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  DONTWORRYBOUTNOTHN               (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of GUILTY VERDICT by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
 
CD-8   11/14/2024 3630ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:25
See original race card.
:22 :451 :574     1:043   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAKEUP 1 4 41½ 42   31½ 1¼ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 2.50 26% 2.80 8.82 W
6  TOP GUN GIRL 5 1 21 3½   2½ 2¼ (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 120 1.40 50% 1.00 2.21 P
12  CURRENT CLIMATE 7 3 31 2nk   1½ 31¾ (foster eric)ORTIZ L 120 10.00 5.34  
16  NAY V BELLE 9 8 72¾ 72¾   65 44¼ (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 7.30  
10  CONNIE K 6 2 11 1nk   42 54¾ (morse l)VAZQUEZ A 120 20.00 5% 19.00 25.52  
3  MUCHO MACHO GIRL 3 6 52 62¼   54½ 65½ (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00 18.26  
13  CHANDANA 8 10 87¼ 85¾   88 76¾ (morse l)BEJARANO R 120 15.00 5% 19.00 23.93  
17  ERVADEAN 10 5 62¼ 52¼   76 89 (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 ★ 2.08  
2  YAMILE'S 2 9 1011¼ 910¾   99 99½ (miller da)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00 51.43  
4  JILL JITTERBUG 4 7 98¾ 1011¼   1011 1011½ (walsh d)SAEZ LUIS 120 15.00 19.47  
SCR  BEDAZZLE 'EM               (mott william)TORRES A 118 4.00    
SCR  FLATTER ME SILLY               (pessin l)MACHADO LUAN 120 15.00    
SCR  KRISPY RICE               (walsh d)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00    
SCR  LOUDER THAN WORDS               (granitz antho)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00    
SCR  MISS ENCHANTED               (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 2.50    
SCR  SAMAY (PER)               (arias alfonso)BEJARANO R 120 10.00    
SCR  STELLA TERESA               (wojczynski j)MONCADA IRVING 115 20.00    
 
CD-9   11/14/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:243 :49 1:142 1:412   1:482   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  ITSINMYBLOOD 8 2 2½ 2nk 11½ 12 1½ (mckeever andr)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00 5% 19.00 4.38 W
7  SHOTGUN 6 7 63 65¼ 44 32½ 2½ (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 8.00 11.34  
4  DESPERATE PROPOSAL 3 5 41½ 51¼ 21½ 22 31¼ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 19% 4.30 2.00 S
1  KICKING CLEAR 1 6 51½ 41¼ 54 46 48 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 7.89  
5  G. ERIK 4 3 31 31 32 59½ 515½ (von don)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 5% 19.00 5.91  
6  CAVANAL 5 4 74½ 86¼ 78¼ 611½ 615½ (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 17.60  
2  GRAND MORNING (IRE) 2 9 98 98¾ 911¼ 717½ 728 (helmbrecht wil)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 5% 19.00 13.79  
10  BALTORO 9 8 85½ 75¾ 89¾ 819½ 834¼ (danner kelse)MONCADA IRVING 112 6.00 7.59  
8  SPURIOUS 7 1 1½ 1nk 64¼ 934½ 969¾ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 53% 0.90 7.48  
SCR  MOR SUCCESS               (demeritte l)LEONARD KILLIAN 119 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.