Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 14, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (5/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/1)-(5/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/1)-(5/4/1)-(5/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/1)-(5/7/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/4/1)-(5/7/1)-(5/1/3/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/7/1)-(5/7/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/7/1)-(5/7/1)-(5/7/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/7/1)-(5/1/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/7/1)-(5/1/3/2)-(8/1/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-3   WIN (5/1/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/3/2)-(5/1/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/3/2)-(5/1/3/2)-(5/1/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1/3/2)-(8/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/1/3/2)-(8/1/7)-(8/4/5/6/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-4   WIN (8/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/1/7)-(8/1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/1/7)-(8/1/7)-(8/1/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/1/7)-(8/4/5/6/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/1/7)-(8/4/5/6/3)-(6/1/4) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-5   WIN (8/4/5/6/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/4/5/6/3)-(8/4/5/6/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/4/5/6/3)-(8/4/5/6/3)-(8/4/5/6/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/4/5/6/3)-(6/1/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/4/5/6/3)-(6/1/4)-(2/9/4/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (6/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/4)-(6/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/4)-(6/1/4)-(6/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/4)-(2/9/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/1/4)-(2/9/4/3)-(6/1/10/13) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-7   WIN (2/9/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/9/4/3)-(2/9/12/4/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (2/9/4/3)-(2/9/12/4/3)-(2/9/12/4/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (2/9/4/3)-(6/1/10/13) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/9/4/3)-(6/1/10/13)-(8/4/9/5/2) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-8   WIN (6/1/10/13) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/10/13)-(6/1/17/10/13) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/1/10/13)-(6/1/17/10/13)-(6/1/17/10/13) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/1/10/13)-(8/4/9/5/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-9   WIN (8/4/9/5/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/4/9/5/2)-(8/4/9/5/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/4/9/5/2)-(8/4/9/5/2)-(8/4/9/5/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/14/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRAND KINGDOM Aug31 Aug23 Jul20 Nov11 Oct22 (chavez ma)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  WISE COUNSEL Oct12 May18       (mccarthy micha)ORTIZ L 121 3.00    
3  ULTIMATE STRIKE Oct16 Sep18 Aug26 Aug10 Nov23 (santamaria c)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.00    
4  COME TO PAPA Oct30 Sep29 Sep01 Aug10 Jul13 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 2.50 21% 3.80    
5  HOPE JOE'S RIGHT Mar07 Jan21 Dec15 Nov12 Sep21 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 33% 2.00    
6  AWOL Jul22 Jun02       (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00    
 
CD-2   11/14/2024 6270ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GREER'S GOLD Oct17 Sep08 Aug24     (mott william)TORRES A 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of GREER LYNN by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
2  BABY AVERY Sep29 Jul13 Jun20 May18 Apr28 (vance tho)TORRES A 118 4.50    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of CHARMAINE'S LEGACY by MR. GREELEY)
3  MAGNIFICENT RAGS Oct31 Sep15 Aug03 Jun21   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 5.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of MAGNIFICENT SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
4  CHURNING BERNI Sep29 Sep14 Aug19 Jul13 Jun07 (pessin l)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of ABUNDANT FLURRY by MIDSHIPMAN)
5  TENNESSEE LAMB Oct17 Sep29 Aug25 Jun30 Oct14 (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 121 1.40 40% 1.50    
  (by TONALIST out of TENNESSEE WHISKEY by PERSIAN TURBAN (IRE))
SCR  SPEED INSTITUTE Oct03 Sep08 Aug27 Jun06 Mar22 (salas marcel)MONCADA IRVING 117 15.00    
  (by FROSTED out of HONOR INDY by TO HONOR AND SERVE)
7  ELKO COUNTY Sep29 Sep02 Aug21 Jul14 Jun15 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 121 3.00 30% 2.30    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of STRONGER THAN EVER by CONGRATS)
 
CD-3   11/14/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  APPEAL DENIED Oct09 Jul15 Dec01 Nov05 Jun29 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 26% 2.80    
2  WOODYTHEBIDSPOTTER Jul13 Jun22 May23 Jan27 Dec27 (rouck l)ELLIOTT JANE 120 8.00 7% 14.20    
3  MONTEREY PENINSULA Sep08 Aug04 Jun22 Jun01 May17 (martinez kell)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00 11% 8.50    
4  ONCOMING TRAIN Sep15 Aug10 Jun22 May18 Apr07 (foley greg)MONCADA IRVING 113 8.00    
5  KANT BEAT THE ROCK Oct12 Jul12 Jun07 May19 May11 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 120 3.50 32% 2.10    
6  READY PURSUIT Oct30 Sep27 Sep06 Aug04 Jul20 (gonzalez rein)SOSA LAUREANO 120 12.00    
7  GLOBAL STAGE Oct30 Sep26 Sep14 Aug03 Jul15 (cano juan )NOLASCO JONATHAN 110 10.00    
SCR  METALLIC MAN Sep10 Aug17 Aug07 May29 Apr23 (matthews randy)BEJARANO R 120 3.00    
 
CD-4   11/14/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 F PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHARP SPEED         (tomlinson m)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00 12% 7.60    
2  BAYTOWN BOUJEE Jul13 Jun09       (mcentee pau)LEONARD KILLIAN 119 8.00    
SCR  TALENT SHOW         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50    
SCR  REECHO         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50    
5  BLUE DAZZLER Oct13 Sep01 Aug04     (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00    
6  SWEET STAR Oct11 Sep26 Sep11 Aug17 Aug04 (bahena ismael)CANUTO THIAGO 119 12.00    
7  ROMANY ROAD         (williamson b)TORRES A 119 12.00 12% 7.60    
8  HIGH SUMMER Sep24 Sep08 Jul31     (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.00 44% 1.30    
 
CD-5   11/14/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SKYNET Jul28         (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 119 15.00    
  (by YOSHIDA out of SKY SHAFT by MINESHAFT)
2  FREE ADVICE         (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of FREE REIN by UNBRIDLED)
3  MESSI THE GREAT         (arias alfonso)AYALA ISAIAS 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of SAVOUR THE MOMENT by LEMON DROP KID)
4  DUAL INCOME Oct11 Sep18 Aug24     (orseno jos)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 18% 4.60    
  (by ENTICED out of CAMILLE GAREY by STREET CRY (IRE))
5  REDACTED         (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 6% 16.40    
  (by HONOR CODE out of DELICATUS by DISTORTED HUMOR)
6  HONOR BO         (vance thomas)TORRES A 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of SMARA by STORM CAT)
7  INVISIBLE Oct19         (orseno jose)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of BET SHE WINS by FIRST SAMURAI)
8  VERY BOLD Oct18 Aug24       (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 119 3.50 53% 0.90    
  (by UNION RAGS out of SWEET REVENGE by FLEMINGS)
9  RAZORCAT Oct18         (schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of HOLD HER TIGHT by PROUD CITIZEN)
SCR  BABY MAX Oct18         (danner kelsey)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of LEMON GAL by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  SOCK IT TO ME Nov01         (stephen antho)JIMENEZ ALBIN 119 20.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of NOBLE READY by MORE THAN READY)
 
CD-6   11/14/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  I HAD THAT ONE TOO Oct13 Sep01 Aug14 Jul11 Jun12 (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50 26% 2.90    
2  STORM BAY May29 Apr20 Mar21 Feb24 Dec30 (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.50    
3  BETTE DAVIS Sep08 May30 May09 Apr05 Mar13 (tomlinson )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
4  ROSARIO'S PRAYER Oct24 Sep25 Aug14 Apr27 Mar02 (torres conc)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 8.00 6% 16.70    
5  LADAN Oct08 Sep20 Aug10 Jul22 Jun12 (bogle fergus)ORTIZ L 121 4.00    
6  EQUUS Sep19 Sep04 Jun23 Jun15 May18 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 2.50 42% 1.40    
 
CD-7   11/14/2024 3300ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DONTWORRYBOUTNOTHN         (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of GUILTY VERDICT by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
2  EL PRESTIGIO Sep12 Aug03 Jun23     (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 3.00 71% 0.40    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of BARTLETT NARROWS by FLATTER)
3  MIRACLE ON CENTRAL         (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of CHARCUTERIE by SOLDAT)
4  MOTEL PATEL         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of SCAT'S LASSIE by SCAT DADDY)
5  OUTOFPI Oct15 Jun21       (gonzalez rein)SOSA LAUREANO 119 12.00    
  (by JERSEY TOWN out of PAHIATUA by TRIBAL RULE)
6  DONUT GOD         (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SWEET KISSES by CARPE DIEM (FR))
7  BON TEMPS         (lukas wayne)CHUAN MARTIN 119 15.00    
  (by BRAVAZO out of WINNING IMAGE by SOUTHERN IMAGE)
8  GRAYDARIA         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of GRANDARIA by CURLIN)
9  SPICED UP Sep26         (mott william)TORRES A 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of CARDAMON by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
10  TIP TOE JOE Jul14         (vance thoma)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 30.00    
  (by FROSTED out of GOLD STAR MAMA by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
11  GETTINBY         (morse l)VAZQUEZ A 119 15.00    
  (by PETROV out of NEVER ENDS by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
12  PAIR OF SOCKS         (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 ★    
  (by VEKOMA out of WINNING SAGA by TALE OF THE CAT)
 
CD-8   11/14/2024 3630ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAKEUP Oct18 Aug31 Aug12 Jul13 Oct19 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 2.50 26% 2.80    
2  YAMILE'S Sep25 Sep07 Aug15 Mar10 Feb12 (miller da)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00    
3  MUCHO MACHO GIRL Oct20 Sep13 Apr26 Mar30 Feb24 (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
4  JILL JITTERBUG Sep20 Aug29 Aug04 Jun07 Apr18 (walsh d)SAEZ LUIS 120 15.00    
SCR  SAMAY (PER) Oct17 Sep08 Aug07 Jul31 Jul21 (arias alfonso)BEJARANO R 120 10.00    
6  TOP GUN GIRL Oct24 Aug31 Oct22 Jul21 Jun16 (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 120 1.40 50% 1.00    
SCR  BEDAZZLE 'EM Oct09 Aug29 Jul05 Jun09 May01 (mott william)TORRES A 118 4.00    
SCR  STELLA TERESA Oct29 Sep19 Aug23 Jun24 Jul13 (wojczynski j)MONCADA IRVING 115 20.00    
SCR  FLATTER ME SILLY Aug29 Jun20 May19 Apr21 Mar23 (pessin l)MACHADO LUAN 120 15.00    
10  CONNIE K Sep29 Aug04 Jun26 Jun07 Apr28 (morse l)VAZQUEZ A 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LOUDER THAN WORDS Oct15 Oct02 Sep05 Aug21 Jul18 (granitz antho)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00    
12  CURRENT CLIMATE Sep29 Aug31 Aug03 Jul05 May24 (foster eric)ORTIZ L 120 10.00    
13  CHANDANA May17 Apr04 Feb03 Dec30 Dec16 (morse l)BEJARANO R 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  KRISPY RICE Oct18 Sep09 Jun23 May29 Mar20 (walsh d)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00    
SCR  MISS ENCHANTED Oct09 Aug31 Aug03 Jul06 Jun06 (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 2.50    
16  NAY V BELLE Oct20 Aug23 Jun28 May25 Apr21 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
17  ERVADEAN Sep21 Apr24 Mar02 Dec31 Nov10 (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 ★    
 
CD-9   11/14/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KICKING CLEAR Sep19         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
2  GRAND MORNING (IRE) Oct16 Oct01 Sep20 Aug28   (helmbrecht wil)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MOR SUCCESS Oct23 Sep25       (demeritte l)LEONARD KILLIAN 119 30.00    
4  DESPERATE PROPOSAL Oct11 Sep18       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 19% 4.30    
5  G. ERIK Oct16 Sep18 Jul29     (von don)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  CAVANAL Oct05 Sep04       (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
7  SHOTGUN Sep27 Aug24       (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 8.00    
8  SPURIOUS Oct04         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 53% 0.90    
9  ITSINMYBLOOD Oct06         (mckeever andr)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00 5% 19.00    
10  BALTORO Sep11         (danner kelse)MONCADA IRVING 112 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.