Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 13, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-2   EXA (7/1/5/2/4)-(7/1/5/2/4) 20 $2.00 $40.00  1-7 $46.86 $6.86 17%
    TRI (7/1/5/2/4)-(7/1/5/2/4)-(7/1/5/2/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00  1-7-2 $87.93 $57.93 193%
    SFT (7/1/5/2/4)-(7/1/5/2/4)-(7/1/5/2/4)-(7/1/5/2/4) 120 $0.10 $12.00  1-7-2-5 $32.05 $20.05 167%
CD-5   WIN (10/1/8/3/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00  1 $10.70 $0.70 7%
    EXA (10/1/8/3/2)-(10/1/8/3/2) 20 $2.00 $40.00  1-2 $43.72 $3.72 9%
    TRI (10/1/8/3/2)-(10/1/8/3/2)-(10/1/8/3/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00  1-2-10 $52.18 $22.18 74%
    DD (4/6/1)-(10/1/8/3/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00  4-1 $16.22 $1.22 8%
CD-6   WIN (6/1/2/5/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00  5 $18.16 $8.16 82%
    EXA (6/1/2/5/3)-(6/1/2/5/3) 20 $2.00 $40.00  5-1 $123.02 $83.02 208%
    DD (10/1/8/3/2)-(6/1/2/5/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00  1-5 $66.37 $41.37 165%
    PK3 (4/6/1)-(10/1/8/3/2)-(6/1/2/5/3) 75 $0.50 $37.50  4-1-5 $154.51 $117.01 312%
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   11/13/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:243 :484 1:131 1:374   1:442   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  SARANAC LAKE 4 3 11 11 12 13½ 15½ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.00 0.33  
2  TRES CHIC (ARG) 2 6 21 21 22 23½ 25½ (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 23% 3.30 5.81 P
1  GRACE GIVEN 1 2 42 41½ 33 38 312¼ (hamilton sar)TORRES A 118 2.00 38% 1.60 4.05 S
6  FASTA LAVISTA BABY 6 4 53 54 68½ 411 415¼ (sandy ste)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 118 20.00 15.84  
3  NO TRUST 3 5 64½ 64¼ 48 511 518¼ (lauer michael)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00 6% 16.30 27.20  
5  FLORIS 5 1 31½ 31½ 58½ 616 627½ (duvall william )MOJICA JR 121 30.00 45.73  
 
CD-2   11/13/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($62K) 2 F PT- 1:29
See original race card.
:23 :463 1:113 1:242   1:373   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOUTWELL TIME 1 1 31½ 31½ 31 2½ 1¼ (shirer matt)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 3.00 24% 3.10 3.71 W
7  ANNA'S PROMISE 7 3 1½ 1½ 1nk 1½ 2¼ (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 2.50 33% 2.00 3.55 P
2  DANCETHENITEAWAY 2 2 52 54 42½ 43 31½ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 5% 19.00 5.14 S
5  GEEZ ELOISE 5 7 88 88¼ 53½ 33 42 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.00 15% 5.90 1.80  
9  ST. ALBANS RAID 9 4 2½ 2½ 2nk 54 56¼ (shirer matt )TORRES A 119 15.00 19.59  
3  BAYOU CANDY 3 5 75 64¼ 65 68 611½ (wilkes ia)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 10.61  
4  SWEET MARIE 4 9 99½ 99¾ 913 817 718 (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5% 19.00 12.49  
6  SUPER MAXIMA 6 8 64½ 75¼ 711 716 818 (seglin e)AYALA ISAIAS 119 15.00 36.96  
8  TACO CAT BACKWARDS 8 6 42 44 812½ 920½ 934¾ (troiani nicco)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00 36.90  
 
CD-3   11/13/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:58
See original race card.
:241 :481 1:13 1:382   1:451   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  MISSION RIVER 5 3 22 22 1nk 2nk 1nk (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 3.50 1.65  
5  PATCH O'BRIEN 4 4 54 53½ 2nk 1nk 2nk (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00 ★ 1.91 P
1  POLAR BEAR PLUNGE 1 1 12 12 3½ 33 32½ (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 5.00 3.65  
3  COULDITBEMAJIC 2 6 43½ 42½ 52 54½ 45¼ (brennan terry)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 2.50 5.47  
7  MISTER MOSCATO 6 2 33 32½ 41 44 56¼ (lauer michae)TORRES A 121 3.00 68% 0.50 10.83  
4  TIVERTON (GB) 3 5 67 66 66½ 69½ 616¼ (delacruz mej)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00 7% 12.60 25.16  
SCR  TRACK LIGHT               (reed r)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
 
CD-4   11/13/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:27
See original race card.
:222 :454 :574     1:102   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  PRINCESS IS OLIVIA 4 1 2½ 1nk   11 11¾ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.40 47% 1.10 1.22 W
5  BALLADRY 5 2 31½ 2nk   21 21¾ (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00 2.48  
6  MISS JEOPARDY 6 4 41½ 42½   44½ 35¾ (ortiz john)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 31% 2.20 1.80 S
1  FRANGO ELECTRICO 1 5 52 54   56½ 46 (bahena is)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 120 12.00 5% 19.00 15.06  
3  VERY WEALTHY 3 3 1½ 3½   33½ 57 (lucas wayn)MONCADA IRVING 113 8.00 24.50  
2  ITSABLINGTHING 2 6 68 69   68 67¼ (barret)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 120 12.00 52.13  
 
CD-5   11/13/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 2:57
See original race card.
:232 :47 1:113     1:174   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VODKA N GINGERALE 1 3 42 32½   2nk 1½ (stall albe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 8% 11.30 4.35 W
2  SPENARD 2 6 1½ 1½   1nk 2½ (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 12.00 5% 17.90 4.50 P
10  PIQUANT 9 2 52 53½   45 36 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 34% 1.90 2.69 S
5  ACE ON THE TURN 4 9 83¾ 75¾   55½ 48¼ (blair jor)TORRES A 119 15.00 15.97  
11  STAYGOLDPONYBOY 10 10 107¾ 86¼   77½ 58¼ (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00 11.52  
12  MISTER ROSSO 11 1 73¼ 63¾   67 69½ (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 119 8.00 24.25  
9  REAL CONVICTION 8 4 31 2½   34½ 711¾ (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 5.73  
8  BIG BOURBON RIVER 7 8 97¾ 97¾   89½ 812 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 8% 11.30 9.83  
3  WAYLLEN RICHARD 3 11 1110¼ 109¾   912 917¾ (catalano wayne)ELLIOTT JANE 119 15.00 5% 17.90 38.33  
6  BONIFIED CRAZY 5 7 2½ 42½   1012½ 1020½ (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00 7.96  
7  HOPE OF GLORY 6 5 63 1110¾   1115½ 1122¾ (davis christ)TORRES A 119 15.00 56.63  
SCR  GRAYDARIA               (ennis john)MONCADA IRVING 112 15.00    
SCR  MAZZEO               (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 20.00    
 
CD-6   11/13/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
See original race card.
:231 :462 1:114 1:243   1:372   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  SCHIFTY'S HALOID 5 8 87¼ 97¼ 21½ 1½ 11¾ (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 121 10.00 5% 19.00 8.08 W
1  GOD OF WINE 1 1 52½ 52¾ 41¾ 2½ 21¾ (roberson de)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 5.00 31% 2.30 7.46 P
8  TWIRLING TROILLET 8 3 42½ 42½ 51¾ 43 33 (king l)CHUAN MARTIN 118 6.00 9.28  
6  DR KRINGLE 6 9 98¾ 86¾ 73¼ 54½ 43½ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 2.50 36% 1.80 3.00  
3  ROUNDBALL ROCK 3 4 74¾ 64¾ 62¼ 64½ 55¾ (caramori caio)BEJARANO R 123 12.00 5% 19.00 14.62  
7  GOLD SEARCH 7 6 1½ 12 11½ 32 66¼ (von kelly)LANERIE J 118 5.00 2.58  
4  CRUISIN AND BOOZIN 4 2 2½ 22 31½ 74¾ 78½ (jarvis kathy)MOJICA JR 118 12.00 25.95  
9  LUMIERE 9 7 32 75¾ 97½ 810¼ 813¾ (cline robe)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00 9.07  
2  MORE THAN FIVE 2 5 62¾ 32 83½ 912¼ 924 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50 8% 10.90 5.34  
 
CD-7   11/13/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 3:55
See original race card.
:223 :454 1:113     1:251   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  SWEET MUSIC (CHI) 11 8 84½ 53   2½ 12 (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 119 4.50 7.84  
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of LENATAREESE by BROAD BRUSH)
9  SPUN UP 9 6 74 77   55½ 22 (calhoun william)VAZQUEZ A 119 15.00 38.06  
  (by HARD SPUN out of WHITSUNDAY by FLATTER)
1  ITWILLBEFUN 1 5 11 1½   1½ 32 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 18% 4.40 2.43 S
  (by CONSTITUTION out of TAKE CHARGE by TAKE ME OUT (IRE))
6  HEAR THE QUEEN 6 4 42 31   32 43¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 31% 2.20 2.29  
  (by AUDIBLE out of BEHOLD THE QUEEN by HOLD ME BACK)
4  GLOBAL ALLURE 4 3 31½ 2½   42 55 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 29% 2.50 2.62  
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of ONE HOT ROMANCE by ROCK HARD TEN)
7  PRINCESS OF OMAHA 7 1 52 42   67 68½ (mcentee paul)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00 37.71  
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of FORCE TO EXCEL by VERRAZANO)
2  CUVEE CREED 2 11 63½ 87½   813½ 79½ (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 12.11  
  (by JIMMY CREED out of LEVERAGEDTOTHEHILT by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
10  POVERTY WITH AVIEW 10 7 94¾ 97½   710 810¼ (gorder kellyn)BEJARANO R 119 20.00 5% 19.00 29.23  
  (by INSTILLED REGARD out of INTEREST by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
5  HALFIN 5 9 1112¼ 1115½   1016½ 911½ (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 61.56  
  (by FLATTER out of SPLASH HIT by FLOWER ALLEY)
8  SWOOPED UP LILLY 8 10 107¼ 1010½   914½ 1012¼ (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 5% 19.00 28.95  
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of FIGHT WITH PRIDE by PROUD CITIZEN)
3  MAC AND CHEESE 3 2 21 66   1123½ 1128¼ (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 119 20.00 56.05  
  (by MCKINZIE out of BLUE MOONRISE by MALIBU MOON)
 
CD-8   11/13/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 MUDDY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:25
See original race card.
:241 :482 1:124 1:38   1:443   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  LUCENCY 2 4 31 31½ 2½ 2nk 11¾ (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 5.00 2.32  
4  INTERLOCK EMPIRE 4 1 1nk 1nk 1½ 1nk 21¾ (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00 5% 19.00 7.13 P
8  APOLLO RISING 8 6 53 73¼ 53½ 32½ 31¾ (walden wi)TORRES A 121 2.50 37% 1.70 2.82 S
5  BADGE OF WAR 5 7 63¼ 63 42 43 43¼ (dutrow ric)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00 12.37  
7  NATIONAL ECLIPSE 7 2 41½ 42 63½ 65 54¼ (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00 37.88  
1  CURLIN'S GESTURE 1 3 2nk 2nk 31 54 66¼ (scherer marian)ORTIZ L 121 3.00 22% 3.60 4.03  
6  UNSTABLE PRINCE 6 5 73¼ 83¼ 85 87½ 78¼ (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 121 5.00 8.30  
3  THE THUNDERER 3 8 83½ 52½ 74 77 89½ (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 8.00 16% 5.10 7.29  
 
CD-9   11/13/2024 5610ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:232 :474 1:121 1:371   1:433   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  CHILLED 4 2 66¾ 64 52¾ 2nk 11½ (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50 4.56  
12  LEMON MUFFIN 11 12 99¼ 95¼ 74¾ 32½ 21½ (lukas wa)ASMUSSEN J 118 12.00 11.27  
1  LITTLE JAMIE 1 1 11½ 11½ 11 1nk 34¼ (medina ro)TORRES A 118 4.00 6% 16.30 6.63 S
8  LET'S DUET 7 8 1212¾ 129¾ 1211 86¾ 45 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 121 20.00 5% 19.00 40.51  
10  UNION MIST 9 7 77¾ 74¼ 41¼ 54 57¼ (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 120 10.00 11.55  
7  LEO TORO 6 4 44 43 31 43½ 68½ (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00 6% 16.60 9.72  
5  TWEETSTER 5 6 88¼ 85¼ 84¾ 97¼ 79¼ (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 56% 0.80 1.54  
3  BROUGHTY FERRY 3 3 34 32½ 64¼ 76¼ 89¾ (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 25.84  
11  LIGHTBULB MOMENT 10 11 1112¼ 117¾ 97¾ 108¾ 910 (arnold georg)MONCADA IRVING 114 20.00 63.24  
2  CONNIVE 2 5 21½ 21½ 21 64¼ 1010 (drury j)ORTIZ L 118 12.00 5% 18.60 8.67  
9  COME AS YOU ARE 8 9 56½ 54 118½ 1113¾ 1121 (mott willi)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00 32.87  
13  PARADISE LANE 12 10 109¾ 105¾ 108¼ 1216¼ 1227 (mott william)TORRES A 120 6.00 21.84  
SCR  CLASSY'N CONNECTED               (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00    
SCR  EAST SHORE               (romans dale)LANERIE J 121 8.00    
 
CD-10   11/13/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:24
See original race card.
:212 :451 :574     1:11   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
12  PROUD DIVI 11 1 12½ 14   14 12½ (mackey wayne)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00 ★ 6.91  
5  TIZ SWEET EMOTION 5 2 87½ 56½   36 22½ (baker james)GRAHAM J 122 4.00 75% 0.30 4.53 P
1  PRINCESS POM POM 1 3 43 24   24 34¼ (forster grant )CASTANON L 124 4.50 6.42  
6  STAGFLATION 6 8 1110¼ 88¼   46½ 45½ (baker james)MONCADA IRVING 117 6.00 5.49  
7  SO FAR SO GOOD 7 6 65 66¾   59½ 57¼ (moge)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 20.00 8.27  
8  HERE'S GRACIE 8 11 1010 910¼   812 68½ (sims p)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 5% 19.00 11.07  
3  GATHER THE FACTS 3 9 98½ 1111¼   1015 714¾ (barnett bobby)MORALES EDGAR 124 20.00 49.31  
2  GAMBI 2 4 75½ 1010¼   913 815¾ (alessi jam)SANCHEZ LEXANDER 124 30.00 72.19  
9  STREETS OF PARIS 9 10 54½ 44½   711½ 916¼ (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 12.00 5% 19.00 3.95  
4  BAM BAM (BRZ) 4 5 33 34½   611 1018¾ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00 ★ 6.73  
11  STAR WATCH 10 7 22½ 77¼   1118 1127¾ (stewart d)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00 15.29  
SCR  HAND IT OVER               (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 122 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

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