Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 13, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (1/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/3)-(1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/3)-(7/1/5/2/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/2/3)-(7/1/5/2/4)-(7/4) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
CD-2   WIN (7/1/5/2/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/1/5/2/4)-(7/1/5/2/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/1/5/2/4)-(7/1/5/2/4)-(7/1/5/2/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/1/5/2/4)-(7/4) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (7/1/5/2/4)-(7/4)-(4/6/1) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
CD-3   WIN (7/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/4)-(7/4/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (7/4)-(7/4/5)-(7/4/5) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (7/4)-(4/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (7/4)-(4/6/1)-(10/1/8/2/3) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/1)-(4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/1)-(10/1/8/2/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/6/1)-(10/1/8/2/3)-(6/1/2/5/3) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-5   WIN (10/1/8/2/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/1/8/2/3)-(10/1/8/2/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/1/8/2/3)-(10/1/8/2/3)-(10/1/8/2/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/1/8/2/3)-(6/1/2/5/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (10/1/8/2/3)-(6/1/2/5/3)-(6/4/1/10/8) 125 $1.00 $125 
CD-6   WIN (6/1/2/5/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/1/2/5/3)-(6/1/2/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/1/2/5/3)-(6/1/2/5/3)-(6/1/2/5/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/1/2/5/3)-(6/4/1/10/8) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (6/1/2/5/3)-(6/4/1/10/8)-(8/1/3/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-7   WIN (6/4/1/10/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/4/1/10/8)-(6/4/1/10/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/4/1/10/8)-(6/4/1/10/8)-(6/4/1/10/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/4/1/10/8)-(8/1/3/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/4/1/10/8)-(8/1/3/4)-(5/1/7/2/8) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-8   WIN (8/1/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/1/3/4)-(8/1/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/1/3/4)-(8/1/3/4)-(8/1/3/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/1/3/4)-(5/1/7/2/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/1/3/4)-(5/1/7/2/8)-(5/8/9) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-9   WIN (5/1/7/2/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/1/7/2/8)-(5/1/7/2/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/1/7/2/8)-(5/1/7/2/8)-(5/1/7/2/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/1/7/2/8)-(5/8/9) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-10   WIN (5/8/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/8/9)-(5/12/8/4/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/8/9)-(5/12/8/4/9)-(5/12/8/4/9) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/13/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRACE GIVEN Oct24 Sep13 Aug17 Aug05 Jul22 (hamilton sar)TORRES A 118 2.00 38% 1.60    
2  TRES CHIC (ARG) Jun14 Apr11 Mar27 Feb22 Jan06 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 23% 3.30    
3  NO TRUST Oct31 Sep24 Sep11 Aug13 Jul29 (lauer michael)ASHTON GAVIN 121 12.00 6% 16.30    
4  SARANAC LAKE Sep19 Aug13 Jul09 Jun09 May01 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.00    
5  FLORIS Oct24 Sep20 Aug17 Jul28 Jul05 (duvall william)ROCCO S 121 30.00    
6  FASTA LAVISTA BABY Oct08 Sep05 Jul17 Jun12 May02 (sandy st)RODRIGUEZ A 118 20.00    
 
CD-2   11/13/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($62K) 2 F PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOUTWELL TIME Oct25 Sep28 Sep13 Aug19 Jul27 (shirer matt)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 3.00 24% 3.10    
2  DANCETHENITEAWAY         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  BAYOU CANDY Oct13 Sep07       (wilkes ia)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
4  SWEET MARIE         (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  GEEZ ELOISE Oct10 Sep20 Aug25     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.00 15% 5.90    
6  SUPER MAXIMA Jul21 Jun21 May31 May14   (seglin e)RIQUELME J 119 15.00    
7  ANNA'S PROMISE Sep28 Sep11 Aug25     (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 2.50 33% 2.00    
8  TACO CAT BACKWARDS Aug29 Aug16 Jul26     (troiani nicco)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
9  ST. ALBANS RAID         (shirer matt )TORRES A 119 15.00    
 
CD-3   11/13/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POLAR BEAR PLUNGE Sep20 Aug30 Jul28 Jul04 Jun18 (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 5.00    
SCR  TRACK LIGHT Oct09 Aug14 Jun07 Apr24 Mar08 (reed r)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
3  COULDITBEMAJIC Oct18 Sep22 Sep15 Aug13 Jul15 (brennan terry)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 2.50    
4  TIVERTON (GB) Sep23 Sep13 Sep11 Aug18 Jul20 (delacruz mej)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00 7% 12.60    
5  PATCH O'BRIEN Oct17 Sep26 Sep10 Jul13 Jun08 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00 ★    
6  MISSION RIVER Oct03 Aug19 Aug10 Jul14 Jun09 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 3.50    
7  MISTER MOSCATO Oct17 Oct01 Aug22 Jul31 Nov10 (lauer michae)TORRES A 121 3.00 68% 0.50    
 
CD-4   11/13/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRANGO ELECTRICO Oct26 Sep19 Aug31 Jul24 Jul11 (bahena is)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  ITSABLINGTHING Oct21 Sep25 Aug19 Jul21 Jun27 (barret)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 120 12.00    
3  VERY WEALTHY Oct12 Sep13 Aug18 Jul29 Jun26 (lucas wayn)MONCADA IRVING 113 8.00    
4  PRINCESS IS OLIVIA Oct26 Sep25 Aug25 Aug08 Jun27 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.40 47% 1.10    
5  BALLADRY Sep13 Jul29 Jun21 May31 May01 (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00    
6  MISS JEOPARDY Oct12 Sep12 Jun21 Jun02 Jan19 (ortiz john)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 31% 2.20    
 
CD-5   11/13/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VODKA N GINGERALE         (stall albe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 8% 11.30    
2  SPENARD         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 12.00 5% 17.90    
3  WAYLLEN RICHARD         (catalano wayne)ASHTON GAVIN 119 15.00 5% 17.90    
SCR  MAZZEO Sep27         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 20.00    
5  ACE ON THE TURN Sep05 Aug16       (blair jor)TORRES A 119 15.00    
6  BONIFIED CRAZY         (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00    
7  HOPE OF GLORY         (davis christ)TORRES A 119 15.00    
8  BIG BOURBON RIVER         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 8% 11.30    
9  REAL CONVICTION Sep18 Aug10       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00    
10  PIQUANT Sep27 Aug24       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 34% 1.90    
11  STAYGOLDPONYBOY Oct17 Sep26 Sep07 Aug07 Jul03 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
12  MISTER ROSSO Oct28         (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 119 8.00    
SCR  GRAYDARIA         (ennis john)MONCADA IRVING 112 15.00    
 
CD-6   11/13/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOD OF WINE Sep26 Aug31 Aug05 Jul05 May25 (roberson de)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 5.00 31% 2.30    
2  MORE THAN FIVE May17 May07 Mar10 Feb02 Dec29 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50 8% 10.90    
3  ROUNDBALL ROCK Oct28 Oct08 Sep24 Sep08 Aug06 (caramori caio)BEJARANO R 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  CRUISIN AND BOOZIN Oct31 May11 Apr14 Mar08 Jan31 (jarvis kathy)MOJICA JR 118 12.00    
5  SCHIFTY'S HALOID Sep11 Aug05 Jan07 Dec28 Nov07 (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  DR KRINGLE Sep13 Aug05 Jul21 Jun29 Jun08 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 2.50 36% 1.80    
7  GOLD SEARCH Sep21 Aug31 Feb11 Dec31 Nov25 (von kelly)LANERIE J 118 5.00    
8  TWIRLING TROILLET Nov01 Oct07 Sep26 Aug26 Aug10 (king l)CHUAN MARTIN 118 6.00    
9  LUMIERE Oct07 Sep18       (cline robe)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
 
CD-7   11/13/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ITWILLBEFUN Oct10 Sep26       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 18% 4.40    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of TAKE CHARGE by TAKE ME OUT (IRE))
2  CUVEE CREED         (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of LEVERAGEDTOTHEHILT by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
3  MAC AND CHEESE Oct04 Sep08 Aug18     (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 119 20.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of BLUE MOONRISE by MALIBU MOON)
4  GLOBAL ALLURE Sep01         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 29% 2.50    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of ONE HOT ROMANCE by ROCK HARD TEN)
5  HALFIN         (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by FLATTER out of SPLASH HIT by FLOWER ALLEY)
6  HEAR THE QUEEN Sep15         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 31% 2.20    
  (by AUDIBLE out of BEHOLD THE QUEEN by HOLD ME BACK)
7  PRINCESS OF OMAHA Oct10 Sep22 Aug23 Jun16   (mcentee paul)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of FORCE TO EXCEL by VERRAZANO)
8  SWOOPED UP LILLY         (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of FIGHT WITH PRIDE by PROUD CITIZEN)
9  SPUN UP Oct13 Sep16       (calhoun william)VAZQUEZ A 119 15.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of WHITSUNDAY by FLATTER)
10  POVERTY WITH AVIEW Oct13 Sep08       (gorder kellyn)BEJARANO R 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by INSTILLED REGARD out of INTEREST by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
11  SWEET MUSIC (CHI) Oct10 Sep15 Aug29     (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 119 4.50    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of LENATAREESE by BROAD BRUSH)
 
CD-8   11/13/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 MUDDY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CURLIN'S GESTURE Oct23 Sep25 Aug17 Jul21 May11 (scherer marian)ORTIZ L 121 3.00 22% 3.60    
2  LUCENCY Sep22 Jul31 Jul18 Jun07 May04 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 5.00    
3  THE THUNDERER Aug18 Jul14 May26 Apr17 Mar15 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 8.00 16% 5.10    
4  INTERLOCK EMPIRE Oct20 Aug05 Jul05 May23 May05 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  BADGE OF WAR Nov08 Oct18 Sep08 Aug08 Jun30 (dutrow ric)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00    
6  UNSTABLE PRINCE Oct23 Sep21 Aug17 Aug11 Jul14 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 121 5.00    
7  NATIONAL ECLIPSE Oct06 Sep15 Jan20     (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
8  APOLLO RISING Oct23 Jun07 May12 Mar29 Mar02 (walden wi)TORRES A 121 2.50 37% 1.70    
 
CD-9   11/13/2024 5610ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LITTLE JAMIE Sep21 Jul27 Jul06 Jun01 May03 (medina ro)TORRES A 118 4.00 6% 16.30    
2  CONNIVE Oct12 Sep19       (drury j)ORTIZ L 118 12.00 5% 18.60    
3  BROUGHTY FERRY Sep27 Jul21 Jun12 Apr30 Mar29 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
4  CHILLED Oct17 Sep05 Jul27 Jun22 Jun01 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50    
5  TWEETSTER Sep20 Jul05 Jun01 May03 Mar29 (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 56% 0.80    
SCR  EAST SHORE Oct23 Sep26 Aug24 Jul22 Nov12 (romans dale)LANERIE J 121 8.00    
7  LEO TORO Oct20 Sep07 Aug08 Jul04 May01 (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00 6% 16.60    
8  LET'S DUET Oct17 Sep27 Jun26 Mar30 Mar10 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
9  COME AS YOU ARE Sep15 Sep07 Jun20 May25   (mott william)TORRES A 118 20.00    
10  UNION MIST Oct17 Sep14 Jun28 Jun01 May03 (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 120 10.00    
11  LIGHTBULB MOMENT Oct08 Jun08 Apr26 Mar28 Dec07 (arnold georg)MONCADA IRVING 114 20.00    
12  LEMON MUFFIN Sep15 Jul20 Jun29 May17 May03 (lukas wa)ASMUSSEN J 118 12.00    
13  PARADISE LANE Sep29 Aug05 Dec31 Nov03 Oct01 (mott william)TORRES A 120 6.00    
SCR  CLASSY'N CONNECTED Sep26 Aug05 Jun16 Apr20 Mar28 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00    
 
CD-10   11/13/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCESS POM POM Oct24 Sep29 Sep04 May02 Mar25 (forster grant )CASTANON L 124 4.50    
2  GAMBI Sep26 Sep13 Aug24 Jul24 Jun22 (alessi jam)SANCHEZ LEXANDER 124 30.00    
3  GATHER THE FACTS Oct10 Sep19 Aug24 Jul26 Jun07 (barnett bobby)MORALES EDGAR 124 20.00    
4  BAM BAM (BRZ) Oct12 Sep20 Aug11 Jun28   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00 ★    
5  TIZ SWEET EMOTION Oct16 Sep03 Aug11 Jul14 Jun15 (baker james)GRAHAM J 122 4.00 75% 0.30    
6  STAGFLATION Oct24 Sep25 Aug02 Jul12 Jun12 (baker james)MONCADA IRVING 117 6.00    
7  SO FAR SO GOOD Oct17 Sep13 Aug08 Jul05 Jun12 (moge)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 20.00    
8  HERE'S GRACIE         (sims p)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  STREETS OF PARIS Sep25 Aug19 Aug05 Jun26 Jun12 (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  HAND IT OVER Sep27 Jul28 May25 Apr25 Apr05 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 122 10.00    
11  STAR WATCH Oct07 Sep11       (stewart d)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00    
12  PROUD DIVI Oct28 Aug25 May04 Mar23 Jan03 (mackey wayne)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00 ★    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.