Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - November 10, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (4/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/2)-(4/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/2)-(4/1/2)-(4/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/2)-(15/6/12/10/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/1/2)-(15/6/12/10/3)-(1/6/7) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-2   WIN (15/6/12/10/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (15/6/12/10/3)-(15/6/12/10/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (15/6/12/10/3)-(15/6/12/10/3)-(15/6/12/10/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (15/6/12/10/3)-(1/6/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (15/6/12/10/3)-(1/6/7)-(2/8/3) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-3   WIN (1/6/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/7)-(1/6/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/6/7)-(1/6/7)-(1/6/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/6/7)-(2/8/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/6/7)-(2/8/3)-(5/1/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-4   WIN (2/8/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/8/3)-(2/8/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/8/3)-(2/8/3)-(2/8/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/8/3)-(5/1/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/8/3)-(5/1/2)-(5/7/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-5   WIN (5/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/2)-(5/1/8/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/1/2)-(5/1/8/2)-(5/1/8/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/1/2)-(5/7/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/1/2)-(5/7/4)-(4/1/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-6   WIN (5/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/7/4)-(5/7/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/7/4)-(5/7/4)-(5/7/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/7/4)-(4/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/7/4)-(4/1/3)-(5/12/7/10) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/3)-(4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/3)-(5/12/7/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/1/3)-(5/12/7/10)-(10/11/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-8   WIN (5/12/7/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/12/7/10)-(5/12/7/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/12/7/10)-(5/12/7/10)-(5/12/7/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/12/7/10)-(10/11/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-9   WIN (10/11/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/11/7)-(10/11/3/9/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/11/7)-(10/11/3/9/7)-(10/11/3/9/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/10/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LONGSHADOW Sep15 Aug06 Jul22 Jun22 May26 (combs bentle)TORRES A 120 3.00 15% 5.80    
2  FASTBYTE Oct19 Sep28 Jul23 Jul06 May22 (esquivel )CORREA L 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  ASPEN CLUB Sep22 Jun17 May26 Apr15 Mar23 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 120 3.50    
4  RAYMOND Oct19 Sep13 Aug30 Jul30 Jul05 (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 120 2.50 58% 0.70    
5  ASHAAB Oct26 Sep01 Jul29 Jun16 May27 (moreno-barban lea)SAEZ LUIS 120 5.00    
6  SCOOTERANDDABIGMAN Sep30 Sep13 Aug02 Jun29 May17 (langemeier jo)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
7  READY PURSUIT Oct24 Oct11 Aug12 Mar24 Mar15 (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 120 12.00    
 
CD-2   11/10/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TRAP LINE         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of CAVANAUGH PARK by GALILEO)
2  TRUST ISSUES         (lovell miche)TORRES A 119 15.00    
  (by ENTICED out of INDIAN CEE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
3  IRISH RANSOM         (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GORMLEY out of ROSIE'S RANSOM by MARQUETRY)
4  CAMARO Z Oct07         (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of JAYLAN by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  GENO'S MYTH         (puhich mike)ELLIOTT JANE 119 12.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of LONGTIME LOVE by SMART STRIKE)
6  IN A JAM Oct20 Sep10 Jul30 Jul15 Jun24 (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 22% 3.60    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of YANKEE UNION by YANKEE GENTLEMAN)
7  AUSTIN STRONG         (beckman whi)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of IMPAZIBLE WOMAN by MISSION IMPAZIBLE)
SCR  NORWICH Sep29         (devaux ch)TORRES A 119 4.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of ABOVE THE CROWD by DISCREETLY MINE)
9  CRASH THE GATE         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of READY READY READY by MORE THAN READY)
10  BRENNAN'S HONOR Oct20         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00 10% 8.80    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of GENUINE CLASS by BIRDSTONE)
11  TROUBLE'S ROARING         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of FRANDERELLA by HENNY HUGHES)
12  SILENT HEART Sep25         (lynch bria)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 6.00 19% 4.30    
  (by HEART TO HEART out of MEGA MONSTER by SILENT NAME)
SCR  FAMOUS FINAL SCENE         (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of BONITA CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
SCR  HENRO         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of STREET MINSTREL by STREET CRY (IRE))
15  BARAYE Sep02 Apr19       (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 116 4.00 26% 2.90    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of PALACE DREAMS by FREUD)
16  MEET YOU NOW         (acev)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 15.00    
  (by QURBAAN out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
 
CD-3   11/10/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HE'S GOT THIS Oct19 Sep17 Aug12 Jul02 May26 (claire alexis)LANERIE J 121 2.50 34% 1.90    
2  HEARTBREAKER Oct19 Oct01 Jul23 Jun22 Jun02 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 121 2.00    
3  LAND MARK DEAL Oct17 Sep30 Sep04 Aug10 Jul26 (manley steve)ORM CORY 121 12.00    
4  DIGITAL Jul23 Jul02 Jun04 May13 Mar26 (hiles rick)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50    
5  EXPENSIVE CUT Oct19 Sep09 Aug26 Jul19 Jun17 (west m)MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00    
6  W W CRAZY Sep23 Aug01 Jul16 Mar23 Nov27 (becker sc)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00 13% 6.70    
7  BIRD KING Oct19 Sep27 Aug29 Aug04 Jul17 (londono genevieve)GRAHAM J 121 8.00 10% 9.00    
 
CD-4   11/10/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAPITARA Oct01 Sep02 Dec18     (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 10.00    
  (by TAPIT out of TARA COURT by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
2  MUSICAL PRAYER Oct28 Sep24       (vaccarezza)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50 33% 2.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of RIVER'S PRAYER by DEVON LANE)
3  MARMALADE SKYE Oct12         (jacobs magda)ACHARD ALEX 122 10.00 16% 5.30    
  (by DANZA out of DAWN BEFORE DAWN by HIGH YIELD)
4  A DOLLAR A DAY Oct28         (butcher james)AYALA ISAIAS 124 12.00    
  (by BLAME out of MILLION DOLLAR DAY by FIVE STAR DAY)
5  TENENBAUM         (drury jr)SAEZ LUIS 122 5.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of PART OF THE CHARM by TAPIT)
SCR  SPEEDY TRAVELER         (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of LESS TRAVELED by GOTTCHA GOLD)
7  PORT TOWNSEND Aug01         (devaux ch)TORRES A 122 4.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of QUIET PLACE by TAPIZAR)
8  KID'S LAST LAUGH Oct28 May05 Apr12 Jan21 Dec31 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.00 23% 3.40    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of KID SILVER by SILVER GHOST)
 
CD-5   11/10/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EMPERADOR Jul31 Jun29 Jun04 Jan06 Oct14 (hiles rick)GRAHAM J 120 15.00 13% 7.00    
2  HOCUS (GB) Oct20 Aug11 Jun17 May21 Apr16 (thompson mich)CANNON DECLAN 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  GOODASIWONSWAS Oct20 Sep27 Sep01 Oct20 Oct03 (warpool shan)GEROUX FLORENT 120 10.00    
4  BACKSIDE BUZZ Sep14 Aug19 Jul31 May06 Mar23 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 3.50    
5  ONE GIANT LEAP Oct12 Apr26 Mar15 Oct28   (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 118 3.00 58% 0.70    
6  OWN THE FIELD Sep22 Jul22 Jun10 May13 Nov23 (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 6.00    
7  CAPTAIN JACK Oct07 Sep14 Aug26 Apr12 Mar19 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
8  FORREST CITY Oct12 Sep10 Aug12 Jun27 Jun10 (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 ★    
 
CD-6   11/10/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UMEBOSHI Oct15 Sep14 Jul22     (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 122 12.00    
SCR  ICE COLD Oct04 Sep03 Jul30     (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 122 3.00    
3  PEIGNOIR Oct15 Aug26 Jul31     (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 122 5.00    
4  COZEE RAGS Oct15         (michael bria)CALLEJA ANDRES 110 6.00 9% 10.00    
5  BOURBON BREEZE Oct06         (mott riley)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00 35% 1.80    
6  MISS TENA MARIE Oct24 Oct03 Sep16 Jun27   (burdess terry)ORTIZ ALVIN 120 20.00    
7  THORPEDO ANNA Oct26         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.50 35% 1.90    
 
CD-7   11/10/2023 7260ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CORELLI Sep09 Aug20 Jan28     (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 121 3.50 29% 2.50    
SCR  FEBRUARY SON Nov02 Sep01 Aug12 Jul11 Jun20 (granitz anthon)CASTANON L 121 15.00    
3  WIND TWIST Oct07 Apr19 Mar15 Feb01 Dec15 (sandy st)RODRIGUEZ A 121 30.00 5% 19.00    
4  BEAR OAK Oct20 Sep30 Aug26 Aug02 Jul02 (casse no)SANTANA JR 121 4.00 45% 1.20    
5  FOWLER BLUE Sep23 Jul22 Jun29 May13 Mar25 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 121 10.00    
6  O P FIRECRACKER Oct14 Sep09 Aug28 Jul23 Jun10 (medina ro)TORRES A 121 8.00    
7  TOUGH TICKETS Oct18 Sep16 Aug23 Jul20 Jun20 (wyner haro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00    
SCR  TEMPLE Sep09 Jan28 Nov26 Oct14 Sep10 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.00    
SCR  CATCH THAT PARTY Sep16 Aug26 Jul21 Jun23 May28 (maker michael)VELAZQUEZ R 123 4.00    
SCR  CREATIVE MINISTER Oct14 Jul08 May25 Apr20 Mar16 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 1.60    
SCR  MR. BIG NEWS Sep21 Aug28 Jul30 Jul01   (calhoun w)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 5.00    
SCR  ROMAN CENTURIAN Oct14 Sep03 Aug12 Jul23 Jun22 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 4.00    
 
CD-8   11/10/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SOUPER EXPLOSIVE Sep24 Aug05 Jan21 Dec23 Nov26 (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 15.00    
2  ERVADEAN Sep21 Aug01 Jun24 May27 May05 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 20.00    
3  PAT'SCHROMECOMPASS Sep22 Aug26 Aug01 May03 Apr12 (o'connor robert)LANERIE J 118 30.00    
SCR  BANDITA Jan29         (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 118 3.00    
5  ZEITLOS Oct14 Aug31 Jul22 Jun17 Apr15 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 4.00 35% 1.90    
6  SWEET CURALINA Sep03 Aug09 Jul23 Jun29 Mar12 (stall alb)LEPAROUX R 120 30.00    
7  PUMPKIN SCONE Oct14 Aug18 Jul01 May28   (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00 9% 10.00    
SCR  SOCIALLY SELECTIVE Apr22 Mar25 Aug17     (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
9  RO TOWN Apr07 Feb12 Dec18     (lynch a)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
10  THREE POLKS Oct07 Sep15       (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
11  THE GREAT MAYBE Sep21 Nov26 Oct02 Aug28   (devaux che)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
12  MARIAH'S APPEAL Sep04 Jul29 Jan21     (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 118 6.00 31% 2.20    
SCR  MIGHTY MADISON Dec21 Nov23 Oct20 Sep25   (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00    
 
CD-9   11/10/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STAR NATION Sep14 Aug30 Aug20 Aug06 Jul20 (hartlage gary )ELLIOTT JANE 118 30.00    
2  BRIGHT SPARK Oct28 Oct19 Sep23 Sep11 Apr19 (flint bernar)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 8.00    
3  HONED Oct19 Sep24 Oct30 Oct08 Sep17 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00 ★    
4  GLEN AIRY Oct19 Aug08 Jul07 Jun11 May14 (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 118 12.00    
5  PRINCELY Oct19 Aug19 Jul21 May28 May13 (mcpeek ke)TORRES A 118 4.50    
SCR  BOONE'S PATH Sep11 Aug20 Jul27 Jul16 Jun22 (young ter)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00    
7  WINSTON WOLF Oct19 Sep03 Aug12 Jul09 Jun17 (oliver victor)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
8  ICONICUS Oct14 Aug11 Jul13 Jun22 Nov13 (pompell r)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 120 30.00    
9  SINGLE RULER Sep30 Sep03 Aug04 Jul21 Jun30 (forster grant)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50 ★    
10  DANCE SOME MO Oct19 Sep25 Aug30 Jul30 Jun18 (rosin cot)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 5.00 61% 0.60    
11  GAMER Oct19 Jul28 Jun24 Jun01 Apr26 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 6.00 16% 5.40    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.