Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Sunday - October 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (9/2/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/2/7)-(9/2/1/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (9/2/7)-(9/2/1/7)-(9/2/1/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (9/2/7)-(6/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (9/2/7)-(6/2/3)-(8/5/9) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
KEE-2   WIN (6/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/3)-(6/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/3)-(6/2/3)-(6/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/2/3)-(8/5/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/2/3)-(8/5/9)-(1/3/5/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
KEE-3   WIN (8/5/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/5/9)-(8/5/9/10) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/5/9)-(8/5/9/10)-(8/5/9/10) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/5/9)-(1/3/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/5/9)-(1/3/5/8)-(4/8/7/5/9) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-4   WIN (1/3/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/5/8)-(1/3/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/5/8)-(1/3/5/8)-(1/3/5/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/5/8)-(4/8/7/5/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/3/5/8)-(4/8/7/5/9)-(11/8/5/4/12) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-5   WIN (4/8/7/5/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/8/7/5/9)-(4/8/7/5/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/8/7/5/9)-(4/8/7/5/9)-(4/8/7/5/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/8/7/5/9)-(11/8/5/4/12) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (4/8/7/5/9)-(11/8/5/4/12)-(1/5/4) 75 $1.00 $225 
KEE-6   WIN (11/8/5/4/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/8/5/4/12)-(11/8/5/4/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/8/5/4/12)-(11/8/5/4/12)-(11/8/5/4/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/8/5/4/12)-(1/5/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (11/8/5/4/12)-(1/5/4)-(4/1/3/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-7   WIN (1/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/4)-(1/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/4)-(1/5/4)-(1/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/4)-(4/1/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/5/4)-(4/1/3/7)-(1/4/7/6/10) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-8   WIN (4/1/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/1/3/7)-(4/1/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/1/3/7)-(4/1/3/7)-(4/1/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/1/3/7)-(1/4/7/6/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
KEE-9   WIN (1/4/7/6/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/4/7/6/10)-(1/4/7/6/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/4/7/6/10)-(1/4/7/6/10)-(1/4/7/6/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   10/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($47K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUNSET TOWN Sep10 Oct21       (asmussen )TORRES A 121 3.50 ★    
2  LOTS OF MISCHIEF Sep22 Jul14 Jun01 Sep01   (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 5.00 6% 15.00    
3  DREAMWITHINADREAM Sep17 Aug10 Jul16 Jun04 Jan27 (hiles a)SAEZ LUIS 121 6.00    
4  AIRBORNE ELITE Sep14 Aug18       (vaccarezza c)TORRES A 121 12.00    
5  JUL QUIST Aug21         (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 121 20.00    
SCR  VALUABLE CARGO Sep24 Aug18 Aug06 Jul09 Jun22 (miller f)COURT K 121 30.00    
7  DARIO Apr15 Mar04 Nov13 Oct23   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  GO CATS Sep28 Sep03 Aug11 Jun29 Apr22 (davis christop)ROSARIO JOEL 121 12.00    
9  DERRICK Sep15 Aug08       (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.80 66% 0.50    
10  BATTLE BORN Sep24 Sep02 Aug01 Apr22 Mar04 (king barry)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 20.00    
 
KEE-2   10/15/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($110K) 2 F PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COURBE Sep16 Aug18       (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.50    
2  RIPERTON Sep16 Aug13 Jul22     (lobo paul)TORRES A 120 4.00 19% 4.20    
3  FLOORED Sep21 Aug18       (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  PEIGNOIR Aug26 Jul31       (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 122 8.00    
5  UMEBOSHI Sep14 Jul22       (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 122 12.00    
6  SHOW OFF Sep13         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 122 1.60 56% 0.80    
 
KEE-3   10/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($44K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS FOXANN Sep29 Aug31 Aug01 Jul08 Jun14 (chavez manuel)AYALA ISAIAS 123 8.00    
2  SUNDAY GRACE Sep18 Aug01 Jun23 May28 Sep13 (hernandez rey)SAEZ LUIS 121 10.00    
3  GIN N SIN Sep23 Sep14 Aug11 Jul05 May31 (faircloth av)CALLEJA ANDRES 111 30.00    
SCR  YOU'RE AVOIDING ME Oct11 Sep07 Aug05 Jul14 May20 (tomlinson)HERNANDEZ J 121 1.60    
5  YOLANDA WHO Sep24 Jun03 Mar25 Feb26 Jan27 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50 11% 8.00    
6  DOGWOODSMILLIEJANE Sep20 Jun11 May02 Feb15 Dec02 (taylor brent)BEJARANO R 123 10.00    
7  BEACH KITTEN Oct01 Aug29 Aug10 Jul06 Jun16 (miller jero)PETERSON FERRIN 121 30.00    
8  GORMLEYESQUE Sep26 Sep12 Jul26 Jul10 May12 (delong b)RODRIGUEZ A 120 6.00 65% 0.50    
9  LIAM'S LASS Sep12 Aug06 Jul06 Mar22 Mar01 (reed r)MCKEE J 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  SHIP IT Sep24 Aug04 Jun24 May27 Apr21 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 8.00 ★    
 
KEE-4   10/15/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($43K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DESERT WOLF Sep21 Aug28 Nov26 Oct30 Oct01 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 3.00 53% 0.90    
SCR  GENERATION (GB) Oct02 Sep20 Aug26 Aug09   (orantes r)MACHADO LUAN 121 30.00    
3  MY UNCLE FRANK Aug20 Jul09 Jun17     (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 4.00 12% 7.40    
4  HONOR GOLD Sep20 Aug20 Aug01 Jul02   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.50    
5  THE GATEKEEPER (IRE) Apr14 Feb26       (ward a)LANERIE J 124 8.00 10% 8.90    
6  JAY BIRD Sep17 Jan11 Dec22 Dec03   (meah m)HEARD TYLER 121 20.00    
7  EXEMPLIFIED Sep28 Aug28       (simms ma)SANTANA JR 121 6.00    
8  GOLDEN FLASH Sep28 Aug06 Jul04 Jun18 May27 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GORDY'S LABEL Sep20 Jul23 Dec03 Oct30   (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 12.00    
SCR  TEXCOCO Aug29 Jul31 Jun23 Feb24 Feb10 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 121 30.00    
11  MO MOVES Sep22 Sep10 Aug28 Aug06 May18 (medina rober)TORRES A 121 30.00    
12  COAL BOSS Aug20 Jul21 Mar09 Feb12 Jan21 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 20.00    
 
KEE-5   10/15/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($140K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BODENHEIMER Sep20 Aug24 Jul20 Jul03 Jun11 (lund valorie)WADE LYNDIE 123 8.00    
2  BIZ BIZ BUZZ Sep09 Aug12 Jul02 Jun11 Feb19 (trombetta)LEPAROUX R 125 10.00    
3  TUT'S REVENGE Sep21 Aug20 Jul22 Jul01 May06 (stuart sh)TORRES A 121 20.00    
4  HEAVEN STREET Sep02 Jul04 Jun01 May06 Apr02 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 4.00 35% 1.80    
5  MARK OF THE Z Jun21 Apr22 Apr08 Dec03 Oct28 (rodriguez j)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 10.00 8% 12.00    
6  EVAN SING May06 Feb18 Oct23 Sep14 Jul28 (stall m)PRAT FLAVIEN 123 4.50    
7  PLANE TALK Jul20 Jun21 Sep14 Aug20 Jul10 (robertso)SANTANA JR 121 15.00 8% 10.90    
8  CLOUDY Sep03 Oct23 Sep14 Aug06 Jun20 (mcgaughey)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 12.00 18% 4.60    
9  MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE Sep02 Jun25 Apr08 Mar10 Feb10 (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 125 6.00 7% 13.90    
10  ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS Aug24 Jun21 May20 Apr08 Nov05 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 121 15.00    
11  JUST MIGHT Sep05 Aug06 Jul07 May26 May06 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00    
12  GO BEARS GO (IRE) Aug05 Jun10 May06 Nov05   (ward a)ROSARIO JOEL 121 6.00    
SCR  OUTLAW KID Sep16 Aug05 Jul26 Jul01 Jun15 (weaver george)SAEZ LUIS 125 8.00    
SCR  ARREST ME RED Sep02 Jul26 Jun10 May06 Apr08 (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 121 8.00    
SCR  MILES AHEAD Jul01 May04 Mar18 Jan28 Dec26 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 3.00    
SCR  PAYNE Aug25 Apr15 Mar09 Jan28 Jan08 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 4.50    
 
KEE-6   10/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NANDINA Sep21         (medina ro)LEPAROUX R 119 30.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of SPINNERET by MINER'S MARK)
2  FINAL DRAFT         (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of DOWNWIND by CURLIN)
3  GRINNING         (mott rile)TORRES A 119 6.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of TICKLE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
4  STEAMPUNK Aug31 Aug02       (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of STEAM by STATE CRAFT)
5  RUBY QUEEN Aug06         (moquett ronald)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 6.00 17% 4.80    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of RADIANT RUBY by TALE OF THE CAT)
6  SWEET VIOLET Sep16 Jul31       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of PRIVATE SUITE by PRIVATE TERMS)
7  SHILOH'S MISTRESS         (mccarthy mich)VELAZQUEZ R 119 8.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of AHH by SAINT LIAM)
8  SWEET SUNSHINE         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 22% 3.50    
  (by HARD SPUN out of EMBOLDENED by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
9  HAPPY TALK         (lukas wayne)ROSARIO JOEL 119 6.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of CHATTERTOWN by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
10  COZEE RAGS         (michael bria)CALLEJA ANDRES 109 30.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of ROSEE IS COZEE by COZZENE)
11  LITE IT UP LOUIE Sep09         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 33% 2.10    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of FLAT OUT GITTIN IT by FLAT OUT)
12  ABUNDANT LIFE Sep09         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of CALISTOGA by CLAIM)
SCR  MARCO SUNSET         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  BEST OF ALL         (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50    
  (by UNKNOWN out of BEST PERFORMANCE by BROKEN VOW)
SCR  MONEY WORKS         (casse no)SANTANA JR 119 6.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of MONEYBRU by TALK IS MONEY)
SCR  BERNAR MOSA         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of ROUGHING by ESKENDEREYA)
 
KEE-7   10/15/2023 3630ft TURF RC13 GOOD Franklin Purse ($350K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CARAVEL Aug05 Jun10 May05 Apr08 Nov05 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 1.80 25% 3.10    
  (by MIZZEN MAST out of ZEEZEE ZOOMZOOM by CONGRATS)
2  WAKANAKA (IRE) Sep09 Jul22 Jun09 May06 Jan28 (mott i)ROSARIO JOEL 120 5.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of STORYLINE by KODIAC (GB))
3  TRAIN TO ARTEMUS Sep09 Aug25 Aug06 Jul22 Jun24 (breen kell)CORRALES GERARDO 120 20.00    
  (by TAPIZAR out of PAY DAY KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
4  TWILIGHT GLEAMING (IRE) Jul28 Apr15 Oct16 Jul29 May14 (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 120 6.00 10% 8.60    
  (by NATIONAL DEFENSE out of THAMES PAGEANT by DANSILI (GB))
5  BAY STORM Sep09 Aug05 Jun09 May05 Feb18 (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 124 4.50 14% 6.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of STORMY REGATTA by MIDSHIPMAN)
6  LINGUISTIC Sep24 Aug31 Aug05 Jun22 May28 (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 120 30.00    
  (by FLATTER out of TRANSLATOR by STRAVINSKY)
SCR  STAR GUEST (GB)         (appleby charles)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 22% 3.60    
  (by UNKNOWN out of USHERETTE by STAGE DOOR JOHNNY)
8  TONY ANN Sep09 Jul28 Nov26 Mar05 Jan21 (d'amato philip)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 8.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of NEVER EVER by IN EXCESS (IRE))
9  B G WARRIOR Sep23 Sep02 Jun11 May19 May03 (andrade hugo)RAMOS D 118 30.00    
  (by RUN AWAY AND HIDE out of BIOGIO'S GIFT by ANY GIVEN SATURDAY)
 
KEE-8   10/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($110K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YOU AIN'T POPPN Sep23         (walsh br)SANTANA JR 120 3.00 23% 3.30    
2  LARRY THE POET Aug27 Jul30 Jul12 Jun15 May28 (rodriguez jo)GILES EMMANUEL 113 30.00    
3  BOURBON BASH Sep23 Sep02 Aug05 Jul22 Jun25 (lukas wayne)ROSARIO JOEL 118 2.00 10% 8.80    
4  TALKIN' CASH Mar11         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 38% 1.60    
5  BILLY JACK Aug26 Aug04 Jul02 Jun04 Apr22 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 8.00    
6  PENSACOLA Sep17 Aug20 Jul30 Aug28   (brisset rodolp)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.50    
7  MR BOB Aug25 Feb04 Jan01 Nov26 Oct28 (falcone n)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  OLD ALLIANCE Dec26 Nov04 Oct07     (stidham mi)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00    
 
KEE-9   10/15/2023 7920ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  R CALLI KIM Aug31 Jul23 Jul03 May26 Apr23 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50 40% 1.50    
SCR  HIGHLAND GRACE Oct14 Sep16 Jul04 Jun03 May07 (tagg barclay)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
3  LUCY'S CAKES FLY Aug31 Aug19 Jul23 Jul07 Jun17 (stuart sh)TORRES A 124 50.00    
4  SABALENKA Sep03 Jul15 Jun03 May05 Apr08 (beckman whi)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.50 29% 2.50    
5  CREATIVE CAIRO Sep16 Aug12 Nov12 Oct20 Sep22 (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 122 8.00    
6  GOOD AMERICAN (GB) Sep10 Aug19 Dec17     (mcgaughey)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
7  SAND AND SEA Aug31 Aug05 Jul07 Jun02 Apr07 (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 10.00 6% 15.00    
8  SHE'S GONE Sep15 Aug11 Jul01 May18 Apr22 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 122 20.00    
9  AMANI'S IMAGE Jul30 Jul04 May20 Apr20 Jul16 (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 122 20.00    
10  BRAVO KITTEN Apr26 Mar05 Feb12 Jan05 Sep03 (joseph saffi)GEROUX FLORENT 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
11  MALLEYMOO Sep02 Jun02 Apr14 Mar04 Feb04 (pletcher todd )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 10.00    
SCR  STIR CRAZY Sep15 Aug02 Jun23 Jun10 Feb25 (maker michael )ROSARIO JOEL 122 8.00    
SCR  SKRATCH KAT Sep22 Jul23 Jul16 Jun03 Nov25 (bauer phil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.