Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Churchill Downs
Friday - November 22, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CD-1   WIN (7/2/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/8/4)-(7/2/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/2/8/4)-(7/2/8/4)-(7/2/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/2/8/4)-(6/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/2/8/4)-(6/7/2)-(3/7/4/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/2)-(6/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7/2)-(6/7/2)-(6/7/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/7/2)-(3/7/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/7/2)-(3/7/4/5)-(2/3/7/5/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (3/7/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/4/5)-(3/7/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/4/5)-(3/7/4/5)-(3/7/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/7/4/5)-(2/3/7/5/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/7/4/5)-(2/3/7/5/6)-(8/4) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
CD-4   WIN (2/3/7/5/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/3/7/5/6)-(2/3/7/5/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/3/7/5/6)-(2/3/7/5/6)-(2/3/7/5/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/3/7/5/6)-(8/4) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (2/3/7/5/6)-(8/4)-(3/5/4/8) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
CD-5   WIN (8/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (8/4)-(8/4/10/1/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (8/4)-(8/4/10/1/7)-(8/4/10/1/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/4)-(3/5/4/8) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (8/4)-(3/5/4/8)-(2/8/3/6) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-6   WIN (3/5/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/5/4/8)-(3/5/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/5/4/8)-(3/5/4/8)-(3/5/4/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/5/4/8)-(2/8/3/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/5/4/8)-(2/8/3/6)-(1/6/2/3) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-7   WIN (2/8/3/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/8/3/6)-(2/8/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/8/3/6)-(2/8/3/6)-(2/8/3/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/8/3/6)-(1/6/2/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/8/3/6)-(1/6/2/3)-(7/3/8/6/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-8   WIN (1/6/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/2/3)-(1/6/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/2/3)-(1/6/2/3)-(1/6/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/2/3)-(7/3/8/6/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/6/2/3)-(7/3/8/6/4)-(2/9/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-9   WIN (7/3/8/6/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/3/8/6/4)-(7/3/8/6/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/3/8/6/4)-(7/3/8/6/4)-(7/3/8/6/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/3/8/6/4)-(2/9/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-10   WIN (2/9/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/9/5)-(2/9/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/9/5)-(2/9/5)-(2/9/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CD-1   11/22/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LOU MAN Nov13 Sep29 Aug11     (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00    
SECRET TROUBLE Oct23 Sep30 Sep20 Aug22   (rivera n)RODRIGUEZ A 118 5.00 25% 3.00    
VAMOS CARLITOS Nov08 Sep23       (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 120 5.00    
STREETS OF WAR Oct23 Oct07 Sep20 Aug15 Jul23 (rivera nest)NUNEZ Y 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
RIGHTEOUS STAR Nov01 Oct19 Sep22 Aug26 Aug12 (cano muno)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.00    
SHEPPINATOR Sep30 Sep06 Jul29     (west aaro)BERMUDEZ E 120 20.00    
GARDINER Nov01 Oct17 Sep12 Aug11   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.60 36% 1.80    
CAPED CRUSADER Sep22 Aug31       (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 118 15.00 13% 7.00    
 
CD-2   11/22/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HIGHER STANDARD Sep05 Jun10 Apr21 Mar09 Jan16 (cowans wi)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 3.00    
GOODASIWONSWAS Nov03 Sep22 Aug13 Jul10 Mar15 (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
MAJOR BLUE Jul26 Jun08 May02 Apr06 Mar10 (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 120 5.00    
ROBO MAN Sep22 Aug20 Aug08 Jul13 Jun12 (holden darrag)MORALES EDGAR 120 6.00    
SCR  MIACOMET Oct16 Sep22 Aug25 Aug04 Aug13 (shirer ma)TORRES A 120 4.00    
BIG HAT WILLIE Oct16 Aug23 Aug03 Jul05 May19 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 120 2.50 31% 2.20    
ELI'S PROMISE Oct13 Aug01 Jun22 Jun08 May12 (divito p)VAZQUEZ A 120 5.00 21% 3.70    
 
CD-3   11/22/2024 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PARTYVICIOUS Feb24         (west m)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00    
  (by FAST ANNA out of BUSY BEV by NOT FOR LOVE)
MAP TO THE STARS Apr21 Mar13 Feb13     (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of INCLUDE ME OUT by INCLUDE)
TOP GUN ROCKET Oct31 Oct05 Aug24 Jul14 May27 (mott riley)TORRES A 122 1.60 45% 1.20    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ROCKET TWENTYONE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
BURLSWORTH Mar30 Mar15 Jan26     (moquett e)BEJARANO R 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of ART BUFF by BODEMEISTER)
SHALLUS Nov13 Oct14 Sep18 Aug29 Aug06 (labra rogelio)FELIX E 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of STRIKE FREE by CONCERN)
VIKING         (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 122 8.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of JUSTWALKONBY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
EVAN ON EARTH Nov08 May04 Jan27 Dec30 Nov12 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.00 25% 2.90    
  (by CONGRATS out of JOSAKA by SMART STRIKE)
WORLD CHAOS         (beckman d )GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of HARVESTFORTHEWORLD by SO YOU THINK (NZ))
 
CD-4   11/22/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SILENT BREEZE Aug24         (hancock j)LEPAROUX R 119 30.00    
J DAVID Oct05         (drury thomas)MONCADA IRVING 112 3.00 46% 1.20    
ALL THE LUCK Oct30 Sep05 Aug22 Aug01 Jul18 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 25% 2.90    
GYPSY DREAMING         (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
STEEL VENGEANCE         (esquivel jesus)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
ONLY THE GOOD         (danner ke)TORRES A 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
CONCRETE CRUISER Oct11 Sep05 Aug10 Jul12 Jun19 (sharp joe)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 4.00 7% 12.40    
MINTASTIC Nov09 Sep27       (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
CANISIUS Nov01         (dutrow e)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
10  CANDYLAND PHIL         (kenneally eddi)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00    
SCR  ALLIED COMMANDER         (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 119 15.00    
SCR  FROSTY BEER Oct27 Oct18       (matejka pavel)ROMAN A 119 30.00    
13  SHARP SWINGER Oct19         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
 
CD-5   11/22/2024 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LA FORET Oct16 Sep15 Aug29 Jul20   (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 118 4.00    
ICE QUEEN Aug09 Jul26 May12 Apr11 Mar01 (alessi jam)SANCHEZ LEXANDER 120 15.00    
KATIE'S CHECKRIDE Apr12 Oct26 Aug30 Jul28 Jul07 (jazdzewsk)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 20.00    
KICK A RHYME (IRE) Mar16 Feb17 Jan13 Dec17 Nov01 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.50 22% 3.50    
MORNING MIRACLE Oct10 Sep07 Aug11 Jul20 Jun02 (blair jordan)TORRES A 118 8.00    
KRICKLE Oct24 Oct16 Sep20 Aug24 Jun28 (holsapple)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 30.00    
GIRL OF MY DREAMS Oct30 Sep19 Aug01 Jun13 May05 (meah anna)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 118 6.00    
FANTASTICAL Nov03 Sep14 Jul27 Feb07 Jan03 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 52% 0.90    
HIGH FASHION KATE Sep20 Aug19 Jul29 Jul06 Jun08 (minnock g)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
10  LA LA ROSE Sep25 Aug10 Jul13 Jun19 May11 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
SCR  OBSTREPEROUS Sep05 Jul25 Jul04 Mar27 Mar10 (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
SCR  DOT Nov10 Sep25 Aug03 Jun01 Apr14 (blair jordan)ASHTON GAVIN 118 20.00    
SCR  HARBOR SPRINGS Oct16 Sep15 Aug17 Jun26 May26 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00    
SCR  UNDERCOVER Oct31 Sep21 Aug26 Jul16 Jun17 (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
 
CD-6   11/22/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MERLOTTI Nov01 Sep26 Sep08 Aug12 Jul15 (wainwright j)BARBOSA CARLOS 120 20.00    
EL GUNNER Nov01 Oct18 Sep18 Aug24 Jul24 (gutierrez )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00    
PINFIRE May30 Jan12 Dec09 Nov04 Sep14 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 120 3.00 47% 1.10    
PRINTS MONEY Nov01 Sep18 Jul15 Jun05 May12 (martinez kelli)VAZQUEZ A 118 12.00 9% 10.30    
GUILE Nov01 Sep28 Sep01 Aug07 Jul12 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.00 18% 4.60    
SCR  ARTWELL Nov17 Nov01 Sep13 Aug05 Jul02 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 6.00    
SCR  KOHAKU Oct28 Sep25 Sep07 Aug22 Aug10 (alessi jam)SANCHEZ LEXANDER 120 30.00    
LEAD FOOT Nov02 Oct17 Aug12 Jul28 Jun14 (gonzalez rein)SOSA LAUREANO 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
KOSHER CAPONE Nov08 Oct30 Sep28     (johnston lane )SAEZ GABRIEL 120 2.50    
 
CD-7   11/22/2024 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SPURGEON Aug29 Jul27       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of LIPSTICK CITY by CITY ZIP)
SCORPIUS Oct04         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 29% 2.40    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of BROOCH by HALO)
PUBLISHER Sep27 Aug12       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 13% 7.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of INDIAN PRIDE by PROUD CITIZEN)
EXECUTIVE Oct12 Aug31       (mott william)TORRES A 119 5.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of LOW PRESSURE ZONE by CURLIN)
HARVEST N'HEARTH Oct23         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of SHE HUNG THE MOON by MALIBU MOON)
SPEECHLESS Oct17 Sep21 Aug24     (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of OH MY by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
KINETIC CONTROL Oct09 Sep14 Aug12     (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 3.50    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of DEVIOUS D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
MORLOCK Oct09 Aug26 Jul20 Jun13   (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 26% 2.80    
  (by BERNARDINI out of ST. JOHN'S RIVER by INCLUDE)
 
CD-8   11/22/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PAYNE Nov02 Sep21 Aug03 Jun22 Jun01 (foster er)TORRES A 120 5.00 43% 1.30    
ONE GIANT LEAP Nov08 Sep21 Aug19 Jun07 Apr26 (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.50 7% 12.50    
DAZZLEMESILVER Oct24 Sep12 Aug25 Aug03 Jul20 (sweezey kent)VAZQUEZ A 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
CHIPOFFTHEOLDBLOCK Nov03 Oct26 Sep25 Sep06 Aug11 (lauer michael)MORALES EDGAR 120 20.00    
G T FIVE HUNDRED Nov02 Sep26 Sep15 Aug12 Jun28 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 120 5.00    
I GOT NO MUNNY Oct30 Sep26 Aug18 Jul13 Mar12 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 115 6.00 24% 3.20    
PRESSURE May25 May03 Apr12 Mar24 Mar02 (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 8.00    
FRIAR LAURENCE Oct13 Sep21 Aug26 Aug12 Jun10 (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00    
 
CD-9   11/22/2024 5940ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EGYPTIAN CANDY Oct26 Sep14 Aug24 Jan05 Nov29 (leitch daniel)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
MOONLIGHT GAMBLER Oct10 Sep05 Jul21 Jun15 May09 (colebrook)TORRES A 118 15.00    
BOURBON THIEF Nov02 Sep07 Aug08 Mar21   (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 5.00 20% 3.90    
JANEY CREED Oct16 Apr25 Mar21 Feb22 Jan24 (hughes g)BEJARANO R 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
BERNA DITTY Oct08 Sep17 Aug16 Jul20 Jun21 (greenhi)DE CRUZ 118 20.00    
BIG TROUBLE Oct20 Sep08 Jul29 Jun28 Jun06 (foley greg)TORRES A 118 6.00 12% 7.60    
HAY STACK Oct20 Sep14 Jul25 Jun28 Apr27 (beckman d )GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 26% 2.80    
SHILOH'S MISTRESS Oct26 Sep11 Jul20 Jun01 Apr20 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 17% 4.80    
SCR  PARISH LANE Sep05 Jul08 May22 Jan12 Nov17 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
10  CLASSY'N CONNECTED Sep26 Aug05 Jun16 Apr20 Mar28 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
11  HEART SPIN Nov03 Oct20 Sep05 Jul27 Jun15 (navarrete an)MONCADA IRVING 114 6.00    
SCR  IRISH PATSY Aug18 Jul21 Apr06 Mar09 Feb10 (mccarthy mic)GEROUX FLORENT 121 8.00    
SCR  SPICY ITALIAN Oct10 Sep29 Sep08 Aug18 Jul11 (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 121 20.00    
SCR  HARVEY'S PRINCESS Oct17 Sep19 Aug23 Jul25 Jul13 (salas marcelino)MCKEE J 121 20.00    
SCR  FORESEEN Oct17 Aug10 Jun15 Apr27 Apr17 (arnold ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.50    
SCR  WITS AND WAGERS Oct23 Sep26 Jul22 Jun15 Nov12 (oliver vic)CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00    
 
CD-10   11/22/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TRAP LINE Nov06 Sep20 Aug26 Mar07 Jan20 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 10.00    
HALFWAY TEMPTED Nov02         (romans dale)LANERIE J 121 5.00 23% 3.40    
SCR  WARP NINE Nov03 Sep08 Aug25 Dec15 Nov12 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50    
SOUND OF VICTORY Oct06 Sep20 Aug10     (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.50    
SATURDAY LONG LEGS Nov06 Oct09 Aug27 Jul11 Jun20 (frazier matt)MONCADA IRVING 117 12.00 10% 9.30    
SCR  PHOTO OP Nov06 Sep18 Aug19 Apr10 Mar22 (hiles rick)BEJARANO R 124 12.00    
MO HOPE Oct30 Sep12 Jun21 Jun05 Apr30 (mcgee paul)GARCIA MARTIN 124 8.00    
PHREDDIE MAC Oct10 Sep07 May10 Mar30 Mar08 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.00    
SPEED INSTITUTE Oct03 Sep08 Aug27 Jun06 Mar22 (salas marceli)MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00 20% 3.90    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.