Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - September 14, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (4/3/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/2/7)-(4/3/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/2/7)-(4/3/2/7)-(4/3/2/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/2/7)-(6/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/2/7)-(6/1/2)-(11/2/4/8/9) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/2)-(6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/1/2)-(11/2/4/8/9) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/1/2)-(11/2/4/8/9)-(2/7/6) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-3   WIN (11/2/4/8/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/2/4/8/9)-(11/2/4/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/2/4/8/9)-(11/2/4/8/9)-(11/2/4/8/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/2/4/8/9)-(2/7/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (11/2/4/8/9)-(2/7/6)-(5/9/2/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-4   WIN (2/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/7/6)-(2/7/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/7/6)-(2/7/6)-(2/7/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/7/6)-(5/9/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/7/6)-(5/9/2/7)-(1/4/3/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-5   WIN (5/9/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/9/2/7)-(5/9/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/9/2/7)-(5/9/2/7)-(5/9/2/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/9/2/7)-(1/4/3/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/9/2/7)-(1/4/3/2)-(7/4/14/9/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-6   WIN (1/4/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/3/2)-(1/4/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/3/2)-(1/4/3/2)-(1/4/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/4/3/2)-(7/4/14/9/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/4/3/2)-(7/4/14/9/5)-(5/9/10/6) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-7   WIN (7/4/14/9/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/4/14/9/5)-(7/4/14/9/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/4/14/9/5)-(7/4/14/9/5)-(7/4/14/9/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/4/14/9/5)-(5/9/10/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-8   WIN (5/9/10/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/9/10/6)-(5/9/10/7/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/9/10/6)-(5/9/10/7/6)-(5/9/10/7/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/14/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  OVERLY D'ORO Sep01 Aug15 Jul22 Jul06 Dec28 (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 15.00    
2  SOUND DOCTRINE Jul28 Jun24 May25 Mar17   (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00 13% 6.40    
3  DUAL MONARCHY Aug04 Jun29 May14 Apr08 Mar04 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 21% 3.70    
4  INEXORABLE Jul30 Sep25 Jul16 Jun25   (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 3.00 28% 2.50    
5  JEWELSTOWN Jul21 Jun18 May04 Apr08 Mar04 (peitz dan )MURRILL MITCHELL 118 4.00    
6  CAPTIVATED DRAMA Aug30 Jul14 Jun17 May06   (miller kenny)LANERIE J 118 4.00    
7  STAR NATION Aug30 Aug20 Aug06 Jul20 Jun18 (spagnola)RODRIGUEZ A 118 12.00 6% 14.60    
8  JUDO Jul23 Jun29 May20 Apr16 Mar09 (blair jord)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 8.00    
 
CD-2   09/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KOUFAX Jun30 Jun02 Mar16 Jan28 Dec21 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 3.00 15% 5.70    
2  COOL RAGS Aug06 Jul02 Jun01 Apr27 Mar30 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 122 3.50 10% 9.00    
3  MOHAAFETH May22 May06 Jan21 Dec11 Nov27 (donjuan sergio)MONTERREY R 122 8.00    
SCR  THE HONORABLE ONE May22 Apr19 Feb28 Feb09 Dec30 (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 8.00    
5  CAN'T HUSH THIS Aug13 Jul21 Jun29 Jun10 Jan08 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 122 2.50    
6  MINE OWN STAR Aug27 Jul30 Jun24 May31 Sep25 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 5.00 47% 1.10    
7  ALFIO Aug13 Aug05 Jul14 Jul02 Jun10 (quartarolo )GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 10.00    
 
CD-3   09/14/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AIRBORNE ELITE Aug18         (vaccarezza ca)CANNON DECLAN 121 12.00    
  (by ARMY MULE out of SERENE SOPHIA by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
2  CIGARETTE BOAT Sep02 Aug13 Jul15 Apr22 Mar25 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 22% 3.60    
  (by KANTHAROS out of DOUBLE CAST by BROKEN VOW)
3  HALMSTAD         (rutledge lanc)GILLIGAN JACK 121 12.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of SUGARCRAFT by BERNARDINI)
4  CUORE SACRO Aug11 Jul14 May21 Aug19   (lynch a)GRAHAM J 121 5.00 10% 9.20    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of BACCHANAL LADY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
5  PINFIRE Jan21 Dec16 Nov26     (tomlinson)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of SUMMER READING by HARD SPUN)
6  TASTERFOR THE KING Nov19 Sep11       (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 121 8.00    
  (by IQBAAL out of PORTICIPATION by INCLUDE)
SCR  MR. COMMANDER Aug21 Jul21 Jul01 Jun15 May21 (king barry)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 20.00    
  (by COMMISSIONER out of MISS ATTRACTIVE by RUNNING STAG)
8  COMMAND' ORO Aug11         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00 6% 16.10    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of C. S. INCHARGE by TAKE CHARGE INDY)
9  AMERICAN RAIDER Jan07 Nov18 Oct16     (castillo )LEPAROUX R 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of SUGAR QUEEN by GEMOLOGIST)
10  LEVEE WAS DRY         (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 12.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of TAP SOFTLY by TAPIT)
11  SALT SPRAY (IRE) Dec17         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 121 3.00 42% 1.40    
  (by KODIAC out of TASTE THE SALT by BORN TO SEA (IRE))
 
CD-4   09/14/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BACKSIDE BUZZ Aug19 Jul31 May06 Mar23 Feb24 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
2  KATTATH Aug05 Jan08 Dec18 Oct02 Aug25 (schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 2.50 50% 1.00    
3  CAPTAIN JACK Aug26 Apr12 Mar19 Feb04   (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 111 6.00    
4  GOLD LUCK Jul13 Jun25 May28 May20 Apr26 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
5  RIDER'S SPECIAL Jul31 Jun29 Jun10 May21 Apr29 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00    
6  BALSA Aug10 Oct27 Sep01 Jul23   (contreras ciprian)EMIGH A 118 3.50 11% 8.40    
7  BOAT SONG Sep02 May27 Apr23 Mar10 Feb04 (robertson mcle)ROCCO S 121 5.00 15% 5.90    
 
CD-5   09/14/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY FAVORITE GIRL         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by CONNECT out of REMEMBER LUCY by TALE OF EKATI)
2  TAKETHESILVER Aug18         (devaux cherie)LANERIE J 119 4.00 15% 5.50    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of SILVER LA BELLE by LANGFUHR)
3  SHE'S ARODEOQUEEN Jun30         (tomlinson)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by MUCHO MACHO MAN out of QUEENAMEINA by READ THE FOOTNOTES)
4  UMEBOSHI Jul22         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 5.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of SWEETGRASS by KOKAND)
5  REMEMBERING Aug18         (mccarthy mich)VELAZQUEZ R 119 3.00 25% 3.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of MEMORIES PREVAIL by CREATIVE CAUSE)
6  COLLIER Aug18         (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 119 20.00    
  (by MINESHAFT out of JUNGLE LANE by TALE OF THE CAT)
7  MOTEL MISCHIEF Aug08         (leonard i)BEJARANO R 119 12.00 10% 8.60    
  (by KEEN ICE out of SUMMERTIMEMISCHIEF by INTO MISCHIEF)
8  SESSA SISU Aug18         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 6.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of SESSA by CONSOLIDATOR)
9  IUKA MISS Jul22         (stall albert )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.50 21% 3.70    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of LAID BACK LADY by HOLD ME BACK)
 
CD-6   09/14/2023 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SAM'S TREASURE Jul23 May11       (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 122 2.50 29% 2.50    
2  FIBBER Aug19         (calhoun wi)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  ZADORSKY Aug13 Jul07 Jun10     (catalano )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 5.00 23% 3.40    
4  STREAMING NOW Aug06 Jun16       (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 122 3.50 24% 3.20    
5  DOT Aug13         (alvarado j)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.50    
6  RAINING SUGAR Aug04         (mott rile)TORRES A 122 8.00    
SCR  JUDY ELAINE Sep13 Aug19 Jul20 Jul06 Jun16 (brown pa)STRANDBERG MALLORY 122 30.00    
8  TWIRLING QUEEN Aug13 Jun25       (casse no)SANTANA JR 122 8.00    
9  TOO FAST FOR YOU Aug02 Jun30 May11     (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 122 15.00    
 
CD-7   09/14/2023 5940ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TRAFALGAR Aug05 Jul01 May25 Apr22 Apr02 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 15.00    
2  COWBOY JUSTICE (GB) Aug02 Jul28 Jul01 May05 Apr13 (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 122 20.00    
SCR  QUADRA ISLAND Aug18 Mar25 Jan28 Jan01 Dec02 (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 120 8.00    
4  ENGLISH TAVERN Mar25 Feb18 Jan21 Dec26 Nov13 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 122 5.00 26% 2.90    
5  LAUGH A LOT Aug05 Jul12 Jun21 May19   (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  SAMYAZA Jul16 May21 Nov12 Oct21 Sep08 (robertson mcle)ROCCO S 122 20.00    
7  YAMATO Jul22 May20 Apr29 Mar31 Mar04 (maker michae)GEROUX FLORENT 122 2.50 28% 2.60    
SCR  SANT' ANTIMO Aug26 Jul31 Jun29     (hiles je)SANTANA JR 118 20.00    
9  STORM THE COURT Aug19 Oct02 Aug21 Jul24 May07 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 4.50 7% 13.60    
10  TEMPER TANTRUM Jul13 Jun15 Dec26 Oct15 Aug07 (hernandez armando)EMIGH A 122 10.00    
11  TATANKA Jul02 Jun04 Apr22 Apr08 Mar05 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 10.00    
12  THE REDS Jul21 Apr28 Mar11 Jan28 Nov13 (sharp joe)VELAZQUEZ R 122 10.00    
13  WHAT A COUNTRY Jul20 Jul02 May26 Mar31 Mar03 (shirer a)LANERIE J 122 20.00    
14  RED RUN Aug18 Jul08 Jun10 May03 Apr07 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00 14% 5.90    
SCR  BRIGADIER GENERAL Aug15 Jun22 May06 Feb25 Sep17 (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00    
SCR  ETHICAL JUDGEMENT Aug20 Jul15 Nov13 Oct20 Sep28 (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 122 4.00    
SCR  KING'S OVATION Aug12 Jul23 Jun11 May18 Apr23 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 3.00    
 
CD-8   09/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DAVID'S TUITION Aug15 Jul18 Jun01     (baker james)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00    
2  BORN FLAWLESS Aug20 Jul31 Jun25 May29 May12 (heitzman e)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00    
3  BOLT ABOVE Aug26 Jul31 Jun06 Apr28 Apr07 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00    
4  MISTER SHARPIE Aug18 Jul08 Jun25 May18 Mar09 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 118 10.00    
5  MAHONEY ROAD Jul08 Mar10 Feb01 Sep29 Apr16 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 48% 1.10    
6  SWIMMINGWITHSHARKS Jul31 Jul15 Jun04 Feb03 Jan13 (cano mun)CANNON DECLAN 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  LEND IT TEWMEY Aug18 Jul14 May04 Jul01 Jun11 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 121 6.00 ★    
8  TROPIC STORM Jul21 Jun25 Jun04 May12 Apr18 (habeeb j)BEJARANO R 121 8.00    
9  RUNGIUS Aug18 Dec10 Nov13 Sep15 Aug05 (diodoro r)TORRES A 120 4.00 15% 5.50    
10  MIDWAY MIRACLE Jun15 May21 Apr29 Apr16 Feb09 (short tho)HERNANDEZ J 121 5.00 8% 11.50    
11  GO VIRTUAL Aug26 Aug04 Jan01 Dec08 Oct19 (gonzalez rein)GILLIGAN JACK 121 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.