Handicappers' Racing Form
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Kentucky Downs
Wednesday - September 11, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss
KD-1   Win (8/12/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00
KD-2   Win (2/11/7/8/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00
KD-3   Win (2/13/9/10/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00
KD-4   Win (3/10/8/12) 4 $2.00 $8.00
KD-5   Win (1/13/9/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00
KD-6   Win (6/7/10/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00
KD-7   Win (10/1/12/7/16) 5 $2.00 $10.00
KD-8   Win (1/7/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00
KD-9   Win (12/6/2/11/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00
KD-10   Win (6/8/2/3/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
 
KD-1   09/11/2024 4290ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 ALL PT- 1:25
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STORM THE STREETS Aug08 Jul12       (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
2  BAYTOWN BULLEIT Aug15 May09 Apr26     (mcentee paul)MURGIA A 119 30.00    
3  EL OSO Aug21 Jul17       (rivera tirso)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 119 5.00 23% 3.40    
4  CUTLASS KING         (hernandez ar)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TAP EM' OUT         (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 119 20.00    
6  COASTERTOTHEMOON         (maker j)ORTIZ L 119 10.00    
7  BEGFORFORGIVENESS         (cano muno)TORRES A 119 20.00    
8  CAPTAIN FANCY Aug24         (foley greg)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.00 30% 2.30    
9  SO GRAND Aug11         (vaccarezza carl)ORTIZ JR 119 4.00    
10  BOURBON STATE Aug05         (miller darrin)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 30.00    
11  MALACHI         (milligan r)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
12  STASHU Aug24 Jul22       (wainwright )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00 26% 2.90    
13  HOFF         (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 8.00 ★    
SCR  RAZORCAT         (schultz lin)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
SCR  LOVE THAT SYMPHONY         (oliver vict)DETTORI LANFRANCO 119 20.00    
SCR  DAGUERRE         (medina rober)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 15.00    
 
KD-2   09/11/2024 4290ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($170K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:57
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KIMBERLINA Aug05 Oct21       (wojczynski justi)DOYLE SOPHIE 121 30.00    
2  MATERIAL WITNESS Aug25 Oct28 Sep21 Sep02 Jul30 (atras rob)GEROUX FLORENT 124 3.00 41% 1.40    
3  ZAPPERA Dec14 May27 Apr08     (brown h)CANNON DECLAN 124 20.00    
SCR  GROWTH RATE Jun15 May02 Feb24 Jan27 Aug20 (brown c)ORTIZ JR 121 4.50    
5  MO ATTITUDE Dec20 Nov23       (navarrete an)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 10.00    
6  FROM SCRATCH Aug15 Jul21 Jun08     (forster t)COHEN DAVID 121 20.00    
7  BLOODY COLORS WAVE Aug17         (arnold geor)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00 12% 7.20    
8  MORINGA Jun29 Jun02       (matejka pavel)BEJARANO R 121 10.00 6% 17.20    
9  RUNAWAY KITTEN Aug11 Mar08 Jan28 Jan01   (ortiz alexande)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00    
10  JERSEYS PARADE         (meredith)GUTIERREZ RAMOS 111 20.00    
11  UNHIDDEN GEM (IRE) Aug22         (stall albert)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00 20% 4.00    
12  RIPASSARE         (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  FLIGHT ON RACE DAY Aug26 Jul27       (mcgoey monica)CASTANON L 121 20.00    
SCR  WUDHOOH Aug11 Jul21 Jun15 Mar29   (pletcher a)ORTIZ JR 121 12.00    
15  STAR WATCH         (stewart dal)LEPAROUX R 121 15.00    
SCR  PEACEFUL KINGDOM Aug11 Jan31 Jun10     (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 10.00    
 
KD-3   09/11/2024 4290ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($190K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:29
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EL REY REY Jul21 Jun13 May12 Mar29 Feb18 (foster eric)ORTIZ JR 118 6.00    
2  DEMOLITION DUKE Aug05 Jun30 May17 Apr21 Mar24 (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 35% 1.90    
3  SURF CITY Jul20 Jun27 May26 Apr24 Nov25 (oliver vict)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 12.00    
4  BAYTOWN PARFAIT Aug03 Jun02 May03 Mar07 Feb10 (ramirez m)SAEZ LUIS 118 20.00    
5  COUNT DRACULA May05 Apr20 Mar28 Mar02 Jan21 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
6  GATLINBURG Aug03 Jul04 May31 Apr30 Nov08 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 15.00    
7  WHERE YA AT VINCE Jun08 Apr26       (rivelli larr)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  AJAAYB Aug18 Jul28 May30 Apr28 Mar27 (esquiv)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 121 8.00    
9  GLACIAL POWER Aug05 Jun27 Jun05 May12 Mar06 (camejo m)ORTIZ L 118 4.50 6% 17.20    
10  STORMIN TANDA Jul05 Jun01       (stall m)TORRES A 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
11  DUNEDIN Mar28 Sep02 Jul23 Jun24 May17 (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 15.00    
SCR  UNTROUBLED Nov22 Oct17 Sep13 Aug18 Jun06 (caramori eduardo)LEZCANO ABEL 118 50.00    
13  TUNISIAN SPRING Jul12 Jun08 Apr12 Nov11 Oct08 (ward a)ORTIZ L 121 3.50 34% 2.00    
SCR  WARHOL Jul19 May30       (d'angelo fr)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 4.50    
SCR  GIRL OF MY DREAMS Aug01 Jun13 May05 Apr07 Mar10 (o'neill doug)MACHADO LUAN 115 20.00    
SCR  HARD TO SAY Aug10 Jun30       (medina rober)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 30.00    
 
KD-4   09/11/2024 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($170K) 2 F PT- 3:01
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EL JOURY Aug19         (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
SCR  NEVER REALLY KNOW (IRE) Aug15 Jul18       (casse norm)SANTANA JR 119 3.00    
3  LUSH LIPS (GB)         (o'brien donnac)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 38% 1.70    
4  CRUZ CHICA         (cash l)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00    
5  TIZNTSHELOVELY Aug17 Jul16 Jun28 May24   (stewart dallas)VELAZQUEZ R 119 15.00    
6  FIXIN TO BEE Jul13         (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00 ★    
7  PARTY QUEEN         (maker j)ORTIZ L 119 12.00    
8  RAMSEY POND Aug29 Jul19       (joseph a)ORTIZ JR 119 10.00 8% 11.40    
SCR  SUMMER AFFAIR Jul30         (lukas wayne)TORRES A 119 20.00    
10  MAMBO QUEEN         (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 5.00 30% 2.30    
11  DON'T WORRY Aug25         (oliver vict)DETTORI LANFRANCO 119 20.00    
12  LES IS BEST Aug19         (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ARYAAM Aug26         (mckeever andrew)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00    
 
KD-5   09/11/2024 4620ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($200K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:34
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL Aug24 Jun07 Apr28 Aug11 Jun17 (abreu r)ORTIZ JR 121 3.00 63% 0.60    
2  DUDE N COLORADO (GB) Sep01 Jul13 Jun15 Apr19 Oct28 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50    
3  DOUBLE CLUTCH Aug03 Jun30 May31 Apr21 Dec15 (arnold r)ORTIZ L 121 4.50    
4  OSCAR'S WORLD Aug03 Jul06 Jun07 Apr05 Mar09 (lynch a)GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00 ★    
5  HEART N SOUL Jul11 Jan25 Jan05 Dec10 Nov16 (irion heather)ARRIETA REYNIER 121 20.00    
6  BLACK WHITE N GOLD Jul31 Jul16 Jul06 Jun10 May22 (lauer michael)ASHTON GAVIN 118 30.00    
SCR  MONEY WAR Aug20 Jul28 Jun13 May07 May09 (gonzalez a)RODRIGUEZ A 121 12.00    
8  POWERFUL Aug11 Jul04 May18 Apr21 Feb24 (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 20.00    
9  COUNTY FINAL Jul27 Jun29 Apr20 Mar30 Jan27 (joseph saffie )ZAYAS J 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  TWO EAGLES RIVER Jun30 May27 Sep20 Jun04 Apr22 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
11  SWIFT AS I AM Aug15 Apr27 Mar16 Mar03 Jan20 (tracy tanner)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 8.00    
12  GO BALI GO Aug20 Jul13 May31 Apr30 Mar23 (nance jonat)DETTORI LANFRANCO 121 30.00    
13  DOMINICAN PIONEER May27 Apr06 Nov11 Sep13 Jul30 (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 121 2.50 9% 9.60    
SCR  CONDEMN Jun14 May24 Apr25 Mar22 Feb03 (drury jr)ROSARIO JOEL 121 30.00    
SCR  UPHILL DANCE Jul27 Jun22 Nov04 Oct15 Sep22 (halden rachel)GEROUX FLORENT 115 20.00    
SCR  ZOOMBIE Jul20 Jun22 May25 Apr27 Dec15 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00    
 
KD-6   09/11/2024 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($170K) 2 ALL PT- 4:09
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLLECTIVE CHOICE         (joseph saffie )ZAYAS J 119 15.00    
2  NO REMATCH Aug01         (nihei mich)RODRIGUEZ A 119 30.00    
3  POWER OF WILL         (mott i)TORRES A 119 6.00    
4  TIZ A SHOWDOWN Aug18         (baker james)GRAHAM J 119 20.00    
5  BALTORO         (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
6  FLEMING Aug18         (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 1.40 58% 0.70    
7  LUCKY MISCHIEF Aug18 Jul29       (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 12% 7.50    
8  HIGH LIMIT Aug19 Jul20 Jun27     (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  REVERSE MERGER Aug19         (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00 ★    
10  COALMOON Aug10         (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 8% 11.30    
11  PNUTBUTTER WHISKEY Aug17         (kelley james)CARPIO J 119 30.00    
SCR  NORMANDY NEMAN Aug11         (perez manny)BEJARANO R 119 30.00    
SCR  SOUND CAUSE Aug29 Jul18 Jun21     (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 4.50    
 
KD-7   09/11/2024 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($210K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:44
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JOIN THE DANCE Jul06 Jun13 May03 Mar23 Feb17 (stewart dallas)VELAZQUEZ R 124 6.00 11% 8.20    
SCR  SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY Sep05 Aug04 Jul07 Jun02 Oct27 (shirer a)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 3.00    
3  MISREAD Jul06 Jun02 Apr20 Aug27 Jul23 (drury jr)ROSARIO JOEL 124 8.00    
4  LIBERTY BELLE Aug15 Jul25 Jul08 Jun10 Feb03 (winters michell)SIMPSON JASON 124 30.00    
5  VALENTINA DAY Jul22 Jun13 Apr21 Mar08 Aug19 (toye li)CORRALES GERARDO 124 20.00    
6  NOT SO CLOSE Aug14 Jun22 May04 Mar23 Feb17 (casse norm)SANTANA JR 124 10.00    
7  JUSTIFIABLE BELLE May19 Apr07 Aug19 Jun22 Apr15 (wilkes r)SAEZ LUIS 124 8.00 7% 13.50    
SCR  SAFEEN Sep05 Aug04 Jun29 Jun02 Apr20 (kenneally ed)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 8.00    
9  STRIKINGLY SPUN Aug14 Jul06 Jun02 Apr11 Nov01 (sharp joe)DETTORI LANFRANCO 124 15.00    
10  LUTE WARM Jul25 Jun19 May12 Apr21 Mar15 (russell britta)GEROUX FLORENT 124 4.00 45% 1.20    
SCR  BEST CUPCAKE Aug21 Jul31 Jul06 Jun04 May03 (lauer michael)ASHTON GAVIN 118 30.00    
12  WATCH THIS BIRDIE Aug14 Apr21 Mar23 Feb17 Dec30 (correas ignacio )ORTIZ L 124 12.00 8% 12.10    
13  HEAVENLY APPOINTED May25 Apr21 Feb25 Jan21 Dec08 (motion graham)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 10.00    
SCR  BE LIKE WATER Jul18 May27 Apr26 Nov18 Oct26 (oliver vict)DETTORI LANFRANCO 124 30.00    
SCR  INSENSITIVE Aug05 Mar07 Feb11 Dec29 Oct28 (anderson do)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 20.00    
16  DEAR LADY Jul27 Jan27 Jan01 Nov26 Nov16 (maker michael )TORRES A 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
KD-8   09/11/2024 10890ft TURF RC11 FIRM Blackwood Distilling Nashville Purse ($500K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:18
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THE GREY WIZARD (IRE) Aug21 Jun06 May18 Apr20 Jul30 (motion graham)VELAZQUEZ R 126 1.40 46% 1.20    
2  SIX MINUS Aug21 Jul14 Jun06 Apr14 Mar02 (pletcher a)ORTIZ JR 122 4.50    
3  CYBER NINJA Aug17 Aug03 May24 Apr25 Mar10 (mott i)TORRES A 122 20.00    
4  DUVET DAY (IRE) Aug16 Jun15 May11 Feb24 Jan21 (mccarthy w)SAEZ LUIS 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MCLOVIN Sep07 Dec24 Sep09 Aug06 Jul08 (brisset rodolphe)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 6.00    
SCR  REALLY GOOD Aug21 Jun06 May02 Mar30 Feb17 (maker j)ORTIZ L 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  LIMITED LIABILITY Aug21 Jun06 May04 Apr11 Nov11 (mcgaughey c)DETTORI LANFRANCO 122 3.50 25% 3.00    
8  CONGLOMERATE Aug11 Jan28 Dec30 Dec03 Oct29 (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 122 20.00    
9  FAMILIAR DREAMS (GB)         (elliot gordo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 15.00    
 
KD-9   09/11/2024 6930ft TURF RC11 FIRM Pepsi Dueling Grounds Oaks Inv Purse ($1600K) 3 F PT- 5:52
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WAVES OF MISCHIEF Aug04 Jun29 May17 Apr18   (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.50    
2  KALISPERA (IRE) Aug04 Jul07 Jun06 May03 Feb11 (lynch a)ROSARIO JOEL 121 12.00 21% 3.70    
3  YATTA Jul27 Dec02 Oct25 Sep30 Sep07 (motion graham)PRAT FLAVIEN 121 15.00    
4  CHARLENE'S DREAM Jul13 Jun09 Nov25 Oct28 Oct02 (moger jr)ROMAN A 121 30.00 5% 19.00    
5  SIEGE OF TROY (GB)         (murtagh p)GEROUX FLORENT 121 6.00    
6  KATHYNMARISSA Aug02 Jun29 May11 Apr06 Feb17 (dutrow rich)DETTORI LANFRANCO 121 3.50 22% 3.60    
7  SHILOH'S MISTRESS Jul20 Jun01 Apr20 Mar09 Jan10 (mccarthy w)SAEZ LUIS 121 20.00    
SCR  GREENFINCH Sep07         (o'brien p)VELAZQUEZ R 121 8.00    
9  PIN UP BETTY Aug04 Jul06 Jun01 May09 Apr13 (maker j)ORTIZ JR 121 6.00    
10  SAKURA BLOSSOM Aug17 Jul20 Jun01 May17 Mar14 (powell leonard)AYUSO ARMANDO 121 30.00    
11  MO FOX GIVIN Aug04 Jun29 May03 Apr06 Mar10 (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 121 12.00 5% 18.50    
12  DANCING N DIXIE Aug02 Jun29 May03 Apr06 Mar09 (casse mark)ORTIZ L 121 6.00 27% 2.80    
13  SANCTIFY Aug24 Aug04 Jun29 Jun07 May18 (holsapple h)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 30.00    
SCR  MONT SAINT MICHEL (FR) Aug04 Jul08 Jun01 Mar10   (walsh brenda)HERNANDEZ J 121 20.00    
SCR  MISS HEBRIDES Aug18 Jul14       (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 121 30.00    
 
KD-10   09/11/2024 4290ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($170K) 2 F PT- 6:25
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PURE BREEZE Sep01         (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 119 3.50    
2  ISLE OF CAPRI         (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 8% 11.20    
3  TARTARIA         (hancock b)MORALES EDGAR 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
4  SWEET STAR Aug17 Aug04       (bahena ismael)MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00    
5  PRECIOUS MEDLEY         (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  CHEETAH LADY         (beckman whitwo)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 4.00 28% 2.60    
7  NILE VALLEY         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
8  ANNA'S PROMISE Aug25         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 6.00 28% 2.60    
9  EVELYN LOUISE Aug12         (oliver vict)DETTORI LANFRANCO 119 12.00    
10  CLOSE UP         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 119 6.00    
11  REAGAN ALICE         (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00    
12  KITTENS STORMY GAL         (bindner m)GRAHAM J 119 30.00    
SCR  TAVRIA         (wilkes r)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
SCR  GLORYLAND         (johnson henr)HERNANDEZ J 119 30.00    
SCR  YESTERDAY (IRE) Jul21         (weaver georg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00    
SCR  BAYTOWN STORM Aug29 Aug17 May19 May13 Apr26 (mcentee paul)MURGIA A 119 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.