Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - October 30, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (6/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/4)-(6/4/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (6/4)-(6/4/3)-(6/4/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (6/4)-(5/6/8/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/4)-(5/6/8/3)-(5/1/3) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/6/8/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/6/8/3)-(5/6/8/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/6/8/3)-(5/6/8/3)-(5/6/8/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/6/8/3)-(5/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/6/8/3)-(5/1/3)-(10/7/2/8/1) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (5/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/3)-(5/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/3)-(5/1/3)-(5/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/3)-(10/7/2/8/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/1/3)-(10/7/2/8/1)-(8/5/1) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-4   WIN (10/7/2/8/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/7/2/8/1)-(10/7/2/8/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/7/2/8/1)-(10/7/2/8/1)-(10/7/2/8/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/7/2/8/1)-(8/5/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (10/7/2/8/1)-(8/5/1)-(1/2/10/5/3) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-5   WIN (8/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/5/1)-(8/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/5/1)-(8/5/1)-(8/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/5/1)-(1/2/10/5/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/5/1)-(1/2/10/5/3)-(2/3/8/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (1/2/10/5/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/2/10/5/3)-(1/2/10/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/2/10/5/3)-(1/2/10/5/3)-(1/2/10/5/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/2/10/5/3)-(2/3/8/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/2/10/5/3)-(2/3/8/4)-(8/11/9/10/7) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-7   WIN (2/3/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/8/4)-(2/3/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/8/4)-(2/3/8/4)-(2/3/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/3/8/4)-(8/11/9/10/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/3/8/4)-(8/11/9/10/7)-(9/6/5/8/12) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-8   WIN (8/11/9/10/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/11/9/10/7)-(8/11/9/10/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/11/9/10/7)-(8/11/9/10/7)-(8/11/9/10/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/11/9/10/7)-(9/6/5/8/12) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (8/11/9/10/7)-(9/6/5/8/12)-(5/7/3/6) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-9   WIN (9/6/5/8/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/6/5/8/12)-(9/6/5/8/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/6/5/8/12)-(9/6/5/8/12)-(9/6/5/8/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/6/5/8/12)-(5/7/3/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-10   WIN (5/7/3/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/7/3/6)-(5/7/8/3/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/7/3/6)-(5/7/8/3/6)-(5/7/8/3/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   10/30/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RIVER IN EGYPT Sep22 Jul07 May25 Apr20 Mar25 (oliv)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 121 5.00    
2  HARLEEZY Sep26 Sep12 Aug18 May27 May02 (hartlage gary )ELLIOTT JANE 121 5.00    
3  CAWKAB Oct10 Sep22 Aug05 Jul09 Mar17 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 4.00 ★    
4  DRIP D'ORO Oct01 Sep11 Aug18 Jul24 Jul11 (hiles a)TORRES A 118 12.00 17% 4.90    
5  BERNIN HOT Oct04 Sep12 Jul28 Jul07 Jun12 (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.60    
6  SEAS OF NORMANDY Mar23 Feb19 Jan27 Nov03 Sep24 (contreras c)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 3.00 28% 2.50    
 
CD-2   10/30/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ASLEEP AT EIGHT Sep12 Sep05 Jul13 Jun13   (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00    
2  CROOKED BULLET Oct06 Aug31       (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 119 3.50    
3  PAKULA Oct05         (figgins l)PELTROCHE F 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  COMING IN HOT Oct18 Jun22 May26     (ennis john)MONCADA IRVING 112 8.00    
5  ALL THE LUCK Sep05 Aug22 Aug01 Jul18   (joseph saffi)TORRES A 119 4.00 38% 1.60    
6  JUJUBEE Sep27 Aug10 Jul05     (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 22% 3.60    
7  ALTOBELLI Oct05 Jun27       (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
8  MACKADOO Sep25         (foley greg)LANERIE J 119 10.00 10% 9.30    
 
CD-3   10/30/2024 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($141K) 3 F PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOONLIT LADY Oct04 Aug12 Jul28 Jul06 Jun09 (gutierrez faust)VAZQUEZ A 120 10.00 9% 9.90    
SCR  LEGADEMA Sep21 Jun09 May11 Apr05 Feb02 (bauer phil)CORRALES GERARDO 122 5.00    
3  BLUE SQUALL Sep25 Jul29 Jun22 Apr20 Mar16 (morse rand)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  HUSH IT HONEY May03 Apr06 Mar21 Feb03 Dec31 (morse l)BEJARANO R 122 6.00    
5  YOUALMOSTHADME Sep22 Aug05 Jun29 May17 Apr07 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.20 63% 0.60    
6  HALINA'S FORTE Sep21 Aug10 Jul04 May31 May03 (bauer philip)TORRES A 122 2.50    
 
CD-4   10/30/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 F PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MARY LOVES LOUIE Sep10 Jul30 Jul16 Jun28   (ennis john)LEONARD KILLIAN 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  LOVEBUG Oct11 Aug10 Jul13 Jun09   (hamilton sarah)ELLIOTT JANE 119 4.50 9% 10.30    
SCR  DIVINEINTERVENTION Sep15         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
SCR  GLOBAL QUEEN Sep26         (tomlinson m)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 6.00    
5  TWO TIMER Oct02 Sep10       (oliver vic)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
6  WE HEAR YOU Oct06 Jul21       (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00    
7  FUN TO RUN Oct02 Aug31 Jul27     (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 14% 5.90    
8  SCARLET RED SKY         (mcgee paul)MONCADA IRVING 112 15.00 7% 13.70    
9  JUDY'S FLYER Aug24 Aug16 Jul19 Jul11   (desormeaux j)TORRES A 119 6.00    
10  CRUZ CHICA Oct20 Sep25 Sep11     (cash l)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00 49% 1.10    
11  HUIXTLA Aug24 Jun16       (gutierrez)TORRES A 119 8.00    
 
CD-5   10/30/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BALADINE Oct10 Sep22 Sep01 Aug22 Aug01 (poulos dee)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  ROCKSTAR RED Sep25 Sep15 Jul29 Jul06 Jun22 (johnston lane )CHUAN MARTIN 121 8.00    
3  STOP THE SPREAD Oct07 Aug31 Aug18 Jul21 Jul14 (caramori eduardo)BEJARANO R 121 8.00    
SCR  EXTRA HALO Sep12 Aug11 Jun23 Jun11 Dec20 (granitz anth)MONCADA IRVING 111 4.50    
5  HOPPIN JOHN Oct16 Sep19 Aug29 Aug11 Jul14 (campbell j)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00 31% 2.30    
SCR  BETTERING Sep27 Jun12 May18 Apr27 Feb02 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50    
7  SPURRIER Sep27 Jun14 May19 Apr13 Dec31 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00    
8  BYE BYE LIAM Sep27 Aug22 Feb18 Jan13 Dec08 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 2.50 39% 1.50    
 
CD-6   10/30/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIAM THE BRAVE Oct14 Sep19 Aug19 Jun21 May12 (esquivel jesus)BEJARANO R 122 6.00 48% 1.10    
2  COX CANYON Jun13 Apr14 Nov19 Oct28 Sep15 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00 12% 7.20    
3  METATRON'S MUSE Sep14 Aug24 Aug07 Jun26 May25 (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  COYOTE ROAD Oct04 Aug02 Jul10 Jun05 May18 (hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00    
5  TEMPTED MISSION Oct13 Aug19 Aug02 Jun30 Jun08 (johnston lane )CHUAN MARTIN 122 15.00 6% 16.50    
6  EL FRANCO Sep14 Aug08 Jun28 Mar14 Feb16 (norris mike)HESS SARA 115 20.00    
SCR  SIR OLLIE Oct09 Sep18 Jul29 Jul06 May10 (cano mu)TORRES A 122 3.00    
SCR  HEMP HEAVEN Aug03 Jun27 May30 May07 Mar22 (wittek karyn)LEBRON VICTOR 122 12.00    
9  MR. PETERKIN Sep07 Aug04 Jun28 May02 Mar21 (norris mike)CANNON DECLAN 122 12.00    
10  CALL OF HONOR Sep26 Aug08 Jul07 Jun29 Apr07 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 3.50 12% 7.60    
11  SANT' ANTIMO Oct13 Jun07 May16 May02 Apr11 (esquivel je)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 15.00    
 
CD-7   10/30/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIME FOR MAGIC Oct04 Aug31 Jul29 Jun28 May18 (oliver vict)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 15.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of MINES AND MAGIC by MINESHAFT)
2  SONHADOR Sep29 Aug19 Nov18     (devaux che)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00 51% 1.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of VUITTON by RED RANSOM)
3  HAPPY TALK Mar30 Feb24 Feb02 Dec31 Nov11 (lukas wa)ASMUSSEN J 120 2.50 11% 8.20    
  (by ARROGATE out of CHATTERTOWN by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
4  THANKSGIVING Oct04         (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of CARA MARIE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
5  RAINBOW GLOW         (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 120 12.00    
  (by OXBOW out of BETWEEN RAINDROPS by A.P. INDY)
6  BARBANERA Sep27         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 120 6.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of HOMESCHOOLING by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
7  ISLANDER Oct04 Aug14 Jun20     (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of TIP AT TAPIT by TAPIT)
8  SHORE WAR Aug25 Jun09 Apr18 Jan07 Nov11 (arnold ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 15.00 10% 8.60    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of INFRACTION by TAPIT)
 
CD-8   10/30/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SANTA CRUISER Oct09 Sep18 Apr04 Sep29 Sep17 (williams colby)BEJARANO R 121 15.00    
2  READY PURSUIT Sep27 Sep06 Aug04 Jul20 May16 (gonzalez rein)SOSA LAUREANO 121 30.00    
3  GLOBAL STAGE Sep26 Sep14 Aug03 Jul15 Jun06 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 20.00    
4  ZOOMBIE Sep26 Jul20 Jun22 May25 Apr27 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 6.00    
5  CHRYSO ALOGO Oct09 Sep15 Aug05 Jul04 Jun20 (vasquez ge)CORRALES GERARDO 118 30.00    
6  VULCAN Oct09 Aug26 Apr18 Mar03 Dec29 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 15.00    
7  KATTATH May10 Feb23 Nov24 Nov09 Oct12 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  LOVE THE NEST Sep28 Sep07 Oct29 Oct15 Sep10 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00 32% 2.20    
9  BRITERDAYZAHEAD Sep14 Aug22 Jul21 May27 Nov26 (amoss thomas)TORRES A 121 2.50 12% 7.10    
10  I GOT NO MUNNY Sep26 Aug18 Jul13 Mar12 Feb11 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 10.00 6% 16.60    
11  TILTED TOWERS Oct02 Jul15 Jun02 May10 Apr12 (rice adam)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 4.00 27% 2.70    
12  KNICKS STORY Sep22 Jul04 May25 May11 Jan03 (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 121 8.00    
SCR  KANT BEAT THE ROCK Oct12 Jul12 Jun07 May19 May11 (jacobson)SANTANA JR 121 20.00    
SCR  FAN THE FIRE Sep15 Aug12 Jun26 Jun06 May18 (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 121 15.00    
 
CD-9   10/30/2024 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLD SWEEP Sep14 Aug19 Jan28 Oct07 Sep04 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 20.00    
2  HOUSE UNITED Sep14 Jun30 May19 May04 Mar23 (stall albe)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
3  JUSTIFREAK Sep21 Aug04 Jun30 Mar20 Feb17 (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
4  GOLDBRICK Jan05 Dec09 Nov19 Oct07   (calhoun william)VAZQUEZ A 118 20.00    
5  HARRODSBURG Sep14 Aug04 Jun28 May24 Apr12 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 121 10.00 15% 5.70    
6  ATTACHE Sep14 Jul07 Jun06 Nov22 Nov05 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 3.50 21% 3.80    
SCR  PRINCIP Sep26 Jul15 Jun27 Jun02 Apr20 (foley greg)LANERIE J 121 20.00    
8  MIRACLE WORKER Sep14 Jul07 Apr26 Feb19 Apr01 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 6.00 5% 19.00    
9  SENIOR OFFICER Sep22         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 2.50 37% 1.70    
10  LINEBACKER Sep14 Aug10 Feb03 Dec31 Nov25 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
11  NOTAH Oct04 Aug23 Jul27 Jun07 Apr28 (terranova )CORRALES GERARDO 121 15.00    
12  THOUGHTTHATCOUNTS Oct11 Sep15 Aug31 Aug05 Mar13 (brafford miche)ROCCO S 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
13  BIG HAMMER Sep28 Jul20       (wismer g)SANTANA JR 120 30.00    
 
CD-10   10/30/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WICKED MELODY Sep18 Aug25 Aug13 Jul06 Jun16 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 121 10.00    
2  VINCITA Sep18 Aug04 Jul11 Jun27 Apr24 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 121 5.00    
3  MO HOPE Sep12 Jun21 Jun05 Apr30 Sep02 (mcgee paul)GARCIA MARTIN 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  KOSHER CAPONE Sep28         (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 121 10.00    
5  COME TO PAPA Sep29 Sep01 Aug10 Jul13 Jun09 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 56% 0.80    
6  NA PALI JOE Sep08 Aug03       (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  THEZELENSKYYFACTOR Aug26 Nov30 Nov01 Sep29   (morse l)BEJARANO R 121 10.00 15% 5.70    
8  ROCKET NIGHT Oct16 Sep18 Aug10 Jun27 Apr13 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 116 4.50 ★    
9  MACHO VILLA Sep15 Aug25 Feb10 Jan06 Aug20 (lukas wayne)ELLIOTT JANE 124 15.00    
SCR  MOVING TO KENTUCKY Oct06 Sep18 Aug10 Apr13   (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.