Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - May 31, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (6/5/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/7)-(6/5/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/7)-(6/5/7)-(6/5/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/7)-(3/2/1/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/5/7)-(3/2/1/11)-(7/4/8/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-2   WIN (3/2/1/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/1/11)-(3/2/1/11/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/2/1/11)-(3/2/1/11/7)-(3/2/1/11/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/2/1/11)-(7/4/8/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/2/1/11)-(7/4/8/3)-(2/3/7/4) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-3   WIN (7/4/8/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/8/3)-(7/4/8/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/8/3)-(7/4/8/3)-(7/4/8/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/4/8/3)-(2/3/7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/4/8/3)-(2/3/7/4)-(2/6/3/1/7) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-4   WIN (2/3/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/7/4)-(2/3/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/7/4)-(2/3/7/4)-(2/3/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/3/7/4)-(2/6/3/1/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/3/7/4)-(2/6/3/1/7)-(10/4/7/12/5) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-5   WIN (2/6/3/1/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/6/3/1/7)-(2/6/3/1/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/6/3/1/7)-(2/6/3/1/7)-(2/6/3/1/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/6/3/1/7)-(10/4/7/12/5) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (2/6/3/1/7)-(10/4/7/12/5)-(1/8/2) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-6   WIN (10/4/7/12/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/4/7/12/5)-(10/4/7/12/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/4/7/12/5)-(10/4/7/12/5)-(10/4/7/12/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/4/7/12/5)-(1/8/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (10/4/7/12/5)-(1/8/2)-(3/9/4/1/11) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-7   WIN (1/8/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/8/2)-(1/8/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/8/2)-(1/8/2)-(1/8/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/8/2)-(3/9/4/1/11) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/8/2)-(3/9/4/1/11)-(6/9/7/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-8   WIN (3/9/4/1/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/9/4/1/11)-(3/9/4/1/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/9/4/1/11)-(3/9/4/1/11)-(3/9/4/1/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/9/4/1/11)-(6/9/7/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-9   WIN (6/9/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/9/7/5)-(6/9/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/9/7/5)-(6/9/7/5)-(6/9/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/31/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HEY SCOOTER         (cash l)ASHTON GAVIN 119 10.00    
  (by BEE JERSEY out of SWEET RHAPSODY by BRING THE HEAT)
SCR  CITIZEN JUDY Apr11         (ennis joh)LEPAROUX R 119 3.50    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of HONESTLY DEB by SUPER SAVER)
SCR  TOODLE LOO         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 5.00    
  (by ISOTHERM out of SANDY'S SONG by FIRST SAMURAI)
4  MIDNIGHT IN AUSTIN         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 4.50    
  (by BERNARDINI out of GONE TO AUSTIN by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
5  ADEERA         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 4.00 12% 7.20    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of MAJESTIC PRESENCE by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
6  SALTED         (casse mark)ORTIZ JR 119 2.50 48% 1.10    
  (by TAPIT out of SALTY by QUALITY ROAD)
7  SUPER MAXIMA May14         (seglin e)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MAXIMUM SECURITY out of GONE TO BALI by GONE ASTRAY)
8  COMBATTANTE         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 12.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of TEMPERS WAY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
 
CD-2   05/31/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRACE GIVEN Apr14 Mar08 Feb11 Aug13 Jul22 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 4.00 17% 5.00    
2  LITE IT UP LOUIE Feb16 Jan12 Dec08 Nov03 Oct15 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 19% 4.20    
3  RETAIL THERAPY May17 Apr17 Mar08 Feb14   (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 118 6.00 25% 3.10    
4  GALADINI Apr27 Mar24 Feb09 Jan19 Dec17 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
5  PRISON BOUND         (puhich mik)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
SCR  GOLDYS LOCK Apr27 Apr10 Mar06 Feb10 May14 (lovell michell)ASHTON GAVIN 124 10.00    
7  PATTY VAN TWINKLE Jan01 Nov26 Oct30     (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 124 6.00 ★    
8  MISS RUTH Apr28         (milligan )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
9  NO MAP NEEDED May10         (amoss thomas)MONCADA IRVING 108 8.00    
10  MIRANDA Mar06 Dec20 Nov23     (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
11  ANDREA BEACH Apr13         (correas ignaci)ORTIZ L 124 20.00 7% 12.90    
SCR  KATE'S CONCERTO May14 Apr27 Mar07 Jan25 Jan04 (lucas t )RODRIGUEZ A 124 20.00    
SCR  BELIVE N THE DREAM         (casse no)SANTANA JR 118 8.00    
14  MOON FLEET May04 Apr17 Feb14 Jan17   (o'neill doug)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00    
 
CD-3   05/31/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BALLADRY May01 Nov25 Oct30 Oct09 Aug29 (pitts helen)TORRES A 118 10.00    
SCR  RED HOT JEANIE May11 Mar27 Jul07 May29 May04 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 123 8.00    
3  MRS. RIP Apr17 Jul01       (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  SHE'S COOL Apr19 Mar02 Aug05     (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 23% 3.40    
5  BEST KISS YET Apr20 Apr05 Mar13     (catalano w)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50    
6  THREE POLKS May02 Feb17 Jan13 Dec15 Nov10 (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 123 6.00    
7  REAGAN'S FLAME Mar20 Feb01 Dec31 Oct13   (schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.00 44% 1.30    
8  SISTER ELLA May04 Apr14 Mar23 Mar07 Feb10 (puhich mik)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 9% 9.90    
9  QUIERO DINERO May05 Apr19 Apr06 Mar21 Feb23 (haran john)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 20.00    
 
CD-4   05/31/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LET THEM WATCH May17 Mar24 Jan07 Dec02 Oct27 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
2  HOT BEACH May11 Apr12 Oct27 Sep16 Aug13 (lynch a)ORTIZ JR 120 2.50 35% 1.90    
3  HALINA'S FORTE May03 Apr05 Feb17 Dec23 Nov25 (bauer a)ORTIZ L 118 2.00 23% 3.30    
4  TANYA SHOWERS May03 Apr04 Mar03 Feb17 Jan13 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 120 6.00 5% 17.30    
5  MS. TART Oct17 Sep16 Aug24     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00    
6  TRIAL Mar23 Feb21 Dec23 Nov18   (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
7  HONEY DIJON Dec02 Oct21 Sep13 Aug10 Jul13 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 16% 5.30    
 
CD-5   05/31/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HERN May04 Jan13 Dec09 Jul04 Apr29 (haran john)BARBOSA CARLOS 113 12.00 8% 11.70    
2  PIKE PLACE May02 Apr17 Feb25 Jan15 Oct11 (mcgee pau)LEPAROUX R 118 4.00 35% 1.80    
3  COLOSSEO May13 Mar02 Jan20 Dec09 Oct06 (catalano w)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 11% 8.40    
4  EXPENSIVE CUT Feb09 Jan13 Nov10 Oct19 Sep09 (morse l)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
5  PIPES AND DRUMS Jul02 Jun04 May06 Mar24 Feb25 (stall m)ELLIOTT JANE 118 6.00    
6  PERFECT FLIGHT Apr12 Mar17 Feb09 Jan13 Nov24 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 13% 6.80    
7  SOUTHERN SUNSET May05 Apr12 Mar15 Feb16 Jan27 (shorter aaro)TORRES A 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  BEYOND BEST May10 Apr20 Mar01 Jan09 Dec26 (troiani n)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
9  HE'S GOT THIS May12 Apr10 Mar10 Feb15 Jan13 (cook b)CANNON DECLAN 118 6.00    
 
CD-6   05/31/2024 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIVERTON (GB) May25 May02 May01 Mar29 Mar03 (murphy cono)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 12.00    
2  BOLT FROM ABOVE Apr17 Mar24 Feb02 Jan05 Aug21 (brinkman b)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 15.00    
3  THREE ON THE TREE Apr30 Sep07 Jul23 Jun17 Apr15 (lovell miche)TORRES A 124 20.00    
4  DEPICTION Apr05 Jan06 Oct08 Aug27 Jul31 (devaux cherie)ORTIZ JR 118 2.50 22% 3.60    
5  ROYAL MENDE May04 Apr17 Mar23 Feb11 Jan07 (davis christop)MACHADO LUAN 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  RANSOMWARE Apr21 Jun11 May21 Dec04 Nov12 (damato phili)GEROUX FLORENT 124 10.00    
7  GATLINBURG Apr30 Nov08 Oct12 Sep02 Aug02 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 124 10.00 15% 5.80    
8  GO BALI GO Apr30 Mar23 Mar01 Jan26 Dec29 (nance jonathan)CEDILLO ABEL 124 30.00    
9  DECANTED Apr24 Mar23 Jul07 May28 Apr08 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 126 4.50    
10  DOUBLE CLUTCH Apr21 Dec15 Nov18 Oct25 Mar08 (arnold george )ORTIZ L 124 3.50 28% 2.50    
11  UNLEASH THE POWER Sep17 Aug16 Jul13 Jun01 Apr29 (stall m)ROSARIO JOEL 124 10.00    
12  CARCANO Apr30 Apr10 Aug26 Aug05 Jul02 (oliver vic)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 12.00 9% 9.70    
SCR  BROWN LIQUOR MAN Apr25 Mar23 Feb25 Feb01 Aug20 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 15.00    
SCR  BEAN MACHINE Mar24 Feb10 Jan05     (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
SCR  MR MCGREGOR Oct12 Sep10 Jul02 Jun02 Apr14 (mott william )ORTIZ JR 124 6.00    
SCR  KARMA DIRECTOR Feb02 Dec08 Nov05 Aug02 Jul12 (reed r)BEJARANO R 124 20.00    
 
CD-7   05/31/2024 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EVERSO MISCHIEVOUS Dec02 Oct28 Sep23 Aug05 Jun22 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.00 56% 0.80    
2  HOWLING TIME Mar02 Jun01 Jul23 Jun12 May21 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  HAPPY AMERICAN Apr20 Mar23 Feb17 Jan20 Dec23 (pessin l)LANERIE J 122 8.00    
4  U. S. ARMY May04 Mar30 Feb24 Jan26 Dec15 (caramori )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00    
SCR  TAKE A STAND Mar08 Jan18 Dec21 Jul08 Jun11 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 117 20.00    
SCR  PATS PROPERTY Mar30 Feb25 Feb09 Jan13 Dec15 (haran john)BARBOSA CARLOS 117 30.00    
7  DENINGTON May04 Mar30 Dec16 Nov26 Oct28 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50    
8  RUNNIN' RAY Jan14 Nov13 Sep01 Jul09 May21 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00 17% 4.80    
 
CD-8   05/31/2024 5940ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FREEDOM'S WAY May02 Apr19 Mar16 Feb17 Jan20 (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 122 15.00 8% 11.00    
2  O P FIRECRACKER May01 Mar29 Feb24 Jan13 Dec17 (medina rob)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 20.00    
3  BEUYS (IRE) May02 Apr14 Mar16 Dec30 Oct06 (maker michael )ORTIZ L 122 5.00 29% 2.50    
4  WHAT SAY THEE Apr17 Mar03 Jan25 Dec31 Oct21 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 6.00 15% 5.70    
SCR  VERBAL Apr14 Mar16 Jan06 Dec07 Aug19 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 12.00    
6  MIRANDA RIGHTS May02 Dec03 Nov05 Sep07 Jul09 (casse mark)ORTIZ JR 122 4.50    
SCR  HUGE BIGLY Apr05 Mar21 Feb02 Nov09 Oct13 (shorter aaron)CHUAN MARTIN 122 15.00    
8  DESERT DUKE Dec30 Nov23 Aug05 Jul01 Jun03 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 12.00    
9  CLYDE'S GOT A GUN May18 Dec22 Nov24 Oct19 Sep16 (pitts hel)LEPAROUX R 122 3.50 21% 3.80    
SCR  CAMARO Z Mar02 Feb03 Jan13 Dec15 Nov10 (foley greg)LANERIE J 116 15.00    
11  BAKWENA Apr23 Mar11 Jan20 Oct26 Oct05 (miller darri)GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
12  NOISES OFF Apr19 Jan05 Sep30 Aug31 Jul23 (lobo h)ROSARIO JOEL 122 5.00    
SCR  COMMANDPERFORMANCE Mar29 Feb09 Jan12 Dec15 Nov11 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00    
SCR  THE PRINCE'S SPUR Apr12 Mar07 Nov24 Sep28 Sep03 (bauer phili)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 3.50    
 
CD-9   05/31/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3 ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHO'S THE KING Apr20 Feb25 Feb03 Dec29 Dec01 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50    
SCR  HAWKS CREEK May12 Apr26 Feb17 Feb03 Jan07 (desormeaux)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 15.00    
3  BRILLIANT MAN Apr20 Mar28 Feb18 Dec15 Nov19 (reed r)BEJARANO R 120 6.00    
SCR  PATCH O'BRIEN Apr25 Mar29 Mar02 Feb01 Nov23 (garcia ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 20.00    
5  I'M YOUR MAN May05 Mar23 Nov23 Nov01   (casse no)SANTANA JR 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  LIAM'S JOURNEY Apr18 Feb24 Jan28 Jan01 Dec09 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 42% 1.40    
7  MONTEVALLO May09 Apr14 Mar22 Feb15 Jan05 (tomlinson michael )GRAHAM J 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  MO RHODES Apr24 Mar02 Oct29 Aug11   (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 120 15.00    
9  SIR GREYLIND May09 Apr13       (forster grant )ORTIZ L 120 2.50 29% 2.40    
10  BAYTOWN BRUISER May09 Feb02 Jan06 Nov30 Oct05 (wismer s)CEDILLO ABEL 120 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.