Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Wednesday - April 10, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (3/9/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/9/8)-(3/9/8/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/9/8)-(3/9/8/4)-(3/9/8/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/9/8)-(1/10/4/5/12) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/9/8)-(1/10/4/5/12)-(3/4) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
KEE-2   WIN (1/10/4/5/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/10/4/5/12)-(1/10/4/5/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/10/4/5/12)-(1/10/4/5/12)-(1/10/4/5/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/10/4/5/12)-(3/4) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (1/10/4/5/12)-(3/4)-(12/2/3/7/8) 50 $1.00 $50.00 
KEE-3   WIN (3/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/4)-(3/4/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (3/4)-(3/4/5)-(3/4/5) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (3/4)-(12/2/3/7/8) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (3/4)-(12/2/3/7/8)-(10/8/3) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
KEE-4   WIN (12/2/3/7/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/2/3/7/8)-(12/2/3/7/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (12/2/3/7/8)-(12/2/3/7/8)-(12/2/3/7/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (12/2/3/7/8)-(10/8/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (12/2/3/7/8)-(10/8/3)-(4/7/16) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
KEE-5   WIN (10/8/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/8/3)-(10/8/3/1/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/8/3)-(10/8/3/1/2)-(10/8/3/1/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (10/8/3)-(4/7/16) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (10/8/3)-(4/7/16)-(2/3/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
KEE-6   WIN (4/7/16) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/16)-(4/7/16) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/7/16)-(4/7/16)-(4/7/16) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/7/16)-(2/3/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/7/16)-(2/3/5)-(7/14/9) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
KEE-7   WIN (2/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/5)-(2/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/5)-(2/3/5)-(2/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/3/5)-(7/14/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
KEE-8   WIN (7/14/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/14/9)-(7/14/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/14/9)-(7/14/9)-(7/14/9) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   04/10/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  WEST COAST HARBOR Mar07 Feb19       (puhich mike)ELLIOTT JANE 118 10.00    
SCR  UP THE CREEK Feb14 Dec14 Nov16     (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.00    
3  BLUE EYED SOUL (IRE) Mar01 Apr26       (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 118 2.00 66% 0.50    
4  CHARM OF THE SONG Feb11 Dec31 Nov18 Oct19 Sep09 (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00 ★    
5  GOLDYS LOCK Mar06 Feb10 May14     (lovell michell)ASHTON GAVIN 125 12.00    
6  LADY JUNE Oct30 Sep06       (taylor brent)ROCCO S 118 30.00    
7  BROWNIE BAY Feb24 Dec31       (gutierrez f)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 15.00    
8  GIFT GORGEOUS Mar13         (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 118 15.00 5% 18.30    
9  SPIRITUAL LADY Mar02 Jan26 Dec31 Dec16 Nov16 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 7% 13.00    
 
KEE-2   04/10/2024 2970ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 2 ALL PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RAISE THE BAR         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 119 2.00 42% 1.40    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of PASCHALI by BERNARDINI)
2  HAPPYFLYER         (o'donnell marc)ASHTON GAVIN 119 20.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of LIFEFLIGHT by LIVELY ONE)
3  MO HAIR SAM         (galvan )PILARES P 119 30.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of SHANGHAI LADY by JUDY'S KING)
4  SERGEANT CAPPS         (capps a)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of PRIVATE ESTATE by PRIVATE TALK)
5  MISBEHAVIN         (andrade hugo)JIMENEZ ALBIN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of CORFE CASTLE by WINDSOR CASTLE)
6  ACE IT         (chapman james )ORTIZ L 119 6.00    
  (by CONNECT out of CLEVER BEAUTY by INDIAN CHARLIE)
7  TUXEDO PARK         (mcentee paul)MONCADA IRVING 109 5.00    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of GREEN EYED CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
8  ENDURING SPIRIT         (ramo)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 8.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of LIFE STARTS by INTO MISCHIEF)
9  AKINMUSIRE         (bahena ismael)SANJUR SANTO 119 30.00    
  (by WILL TAKE CHARGE out of GOTTA B KITTEN ME by LUCKY PULPIT)
10  TAPIRS VALOR         (hancock jo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 12% 7.70    
  (by TAPWRIT out of ALTERATION by ALTERNATION)
11  BOTTOMS UP         (mccutchen jaso)CEDILLO ABEL 119 30.00    
  (by FROSTED out of TRADING VOLUME by ARCH)
12  CUPID'S THUNDER         (hancock jac)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CUPID out of CATECAL by WARRIOR'S REWARD)
SCR  BAYTOWN STORM         (mcentee paul)MONCADA IRVING 106 4.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of CHARMING SHE IS by JOHAR)
SCR  PROBALE TEN         (chapman jam)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of LIFE AT TEN by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  BOSTONTONIAN         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 119 1.80    
  (by BERNARDINI out of FALCONESS by FOOLISH PLEASURE)
 
KEE-3   04/10/2024 3960ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($52K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IN COLOR Mar06 Feb07 Dec09 Nov01 Sep21 (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 124 20.00    
SCR  CENTER STAGE Feb24 Dec20 Nov05 Oct10 Aug19 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 124 6.00    
3  FIRST HILL Mar06 Feb21 Jan13 Dec15 Oct10 (watkins m)MCKEE J 124 3.50 40% 1.50    
4  BEST SELLER Jun16 Apr21 Mar19 Feb08 Nov18 (brisset rodolp)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 10.00 21% 3.80    
5  CLASSIC PERFORMER Mar03 Jan07 Nov02 Oct12 Aug18 (forster gr)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 4.00 ★    
6  ITSABLINGTHING Jan31 Dec19 Nov16 Sep15 Aug30 (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 124 30.00    
SCR  ANNA'S WISH Mar16 Feb18 Jan01 Dec13 Nov18 (weaver geo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.80    
SCR  ECHO FOXTROT Feb21 Jan24 Dec14 Sep17 Aug11 (murphy conor)GRAHAM J 124 4.50    
 
KEE-4   04/10/2024 5940ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($43K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MONEY MEMOLO Feb15 Dec28       (sims p)ACHARD ALEX 118 12.00    
2  PHOTO OP Mar22 Feb24 Dec16     (hiles rick)LANERIE J 126 6.00 27% 2.70    
3  CURLINS INCHARGE Mar02 Feb17 Jan26 Aug31 Jul21 (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 126 4.00 15% 5.90    
4  MOONOVERMONTGOMERY Mar24 May18 May03     (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 126 12.00    
SCR  CAUSE A RUCKUS Mar15 Jan31       (catalano wayne)MACHADO LUAN 118 8.00    
6  QUIET RUSH Mar08 Nov01 Oct01 Aug27 Jul30 (arnold george )ASHTON GAVIN 118 15.00    
7  WAUHATCHIE Mar02 Jan26 Oct28 Sep21   (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  VINO FA DANZA Mar21 Feb14 Oct20 Sep20   (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BATTLE BORN Mar22 Mar13 Feb24 Jan10 Dec20 (king l)ELLIOTT JANE 126 20.00    
10  STATELY ORDER Mar08 Feb23       (tomlinson mich)ORTIZ L 118 12.00    
11  ACCONA Feb23         (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
12  TOP OF THE STREET Mar23 Mar07 Feb18 Jan27 Dec31 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.00 36% 1.70    
SCR  CASHMEUP Feb17 Nov09 Oct06 Dec31 Nov13 (rice linda)CANNON DECLAN 126 6.00    
SCR  COOL OPERATOR Mar09 Jan27 Dec02     (gargan dan)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50    
SCR  LOMACHENKO Mar08 Feb01 Jan06 Sep29   (beckman whi)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00    
 
KEE-5   04/10/2024 3960ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($50K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOSHEN Mar20 Jan24 Nov29 Nov15 Sep27 (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 ★    
2  STORM CHARGING Mar28 Feb15 Jan04 Oct25 Oct26 (hester haley)OUZTS W 120 15.00 ★    
3  GHOSTLY NIGHT Jan28 Jan06 Nov23 Oct20 Aug27 (shirer a)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00 5% 19.00    
4  MAZOKU Mar15 Feb14 Jan03 Dec20 Nov01 (butcher jame)CALLEJA ANDRES 113 20.00    
5  PRINCESSTAPITURE Feb17 Feb03 Jan11 Dec28 Sep16 (andrade hugo)TERRAZA GERMAN 113 30.00    
6  BANNED FROM MIDWAY Mar14 Feb29 Feb17 Feb03 Jul26 (caramori eduar)MACHADO LUAN 118 30.00    
7  FOREVER HOME Mar02 Feb18 Jan28 Dec27 Nov08 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
8  PROTOMAGIC Mar27 Feb28 Feb03 Jan13 Dec22 (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 4.50 16% 5.10    
9  GIN N SIN Mar14 Mar02 Jan11 Nov07 Oct15 (acevedo israel)SANJUR SANTO 118 20.00    
10  SAMARITA Dec02 Oct13 Sep19 Sep03 Aug03 (rodriguez jo)GILES EMMANUEL 118 1.60 60% 0.70    
 
KEE-6   04/10/2024 5280ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($110K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OVERBORE Mar08 Sep22 Sep02 Aug05 Jul09 (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00    
SCR  TIVERTON (GB) Mar29 Mar03 Oct19 Sep30   (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
SCR  BERRETTINI Aug04 Jun22 May28 Apr20 Sep03 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00    
4  MALIBU SPRINGS Mar20 Feb15 Jan18 Dec07 Oct21 (sweezey j)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 123 10.00 51% 1.00    
5  COACHES MEETING Mar24 Feb25 Jan11 Mar25 Jul16 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
SCR  EXEMPLIFIED Mar23 Feb28 Jan26 Dec16 Oct25 (miller kenny)BURGOS ALBERTO 118 30.00    
7  CARCANO Aug26 Aug05 Jul02 Dec24 Nov19 (oliver victori)ROSARIO JOEL 118 12.00 14% 6.30    
SCR  PASSING JUDGMENT Feb24 Dec16 Nov09     (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 30.00    
SCR  MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL Aug11 Jun17       (abreu r)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.50    
SCR  BATTLE OF NORMANDY Sep03 Aug05 May19 Apr21 Nov04 (mcgaughey )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
SCR  ALEXIS ZORBA (GB) Feb03 Jan18 Dec22 Oct13 Sep04 (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 118 5.00    
SCR  PORQUEROLLES Feb15         (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 118 6.00    
SCR  CAROOM Feb25 Feb02 May21 Apr27 Mar01 (catalano m)GRAHAM J 118 15.00    
SCR  ALEMAN Mar23 Feb22 Feb02 Dec20 Oct12 (jarvis ka)CORREA L 118 20.00    
15  GAMER Mar21 Mar09 Feb23 Jan27 Dec16 (andrade hugo)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
16  DISSOLVED Feb17 Oct21 Aug26 Jul30   (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 118 8.00 7% 13.70    
 
KEE-7   04/10/2024 5610ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($110K) 3 ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SAN SIRO Mar09 Jan20 Dec23 Nov25   (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 120 6.00    
2  NATIVE LAND Mar09 Feb11 Jan13     (mott riley)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 3.00 37% 1.70    
3  HEARTENED Mar09 Feb10 Jan06 Oct26 Sep16 (pletcher todd )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 2.50 26% 2.90    
4  KITTY HAWK (GB) Nov12 Oct07 Aug27 Jul30   (oliver victor)VELAZQUEZ R 118 10.00    
5  ROCKETEER Oct26         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 15% 5.90    
SCR  MORE VINO Mar10         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 120 8.00    
SCR  FACENDA Mar02 Jan30       (o'neill doug)MACHADO LUAN 118 30.00    
8  EVERDOIT Mar24 Mar17 Mar09 Feb10 Jan01 (rice kevin)ORTIZ L 118 12.00    
9  GAMBLERS TAIL Jan09 Nov17       (ward a)ROSARIO JOEL 118 15.00    
 
KEE-8   04/10/2024 5610ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($120K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RECKONING FORCE Mar02 Apr21 Mar25 Mar04 Nov04 (walsh brendan )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 15.00    
SCR  GREEK ORDER (GB)         (mott william )ORTIZ JR 118 3.50    
SCR  DEER DISTRICT Feb08 Jan20 Jul28 May28 May06 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 4.00    
SCR  FEBRUARY SON Mar07 Feb17 Dec23 Nov02 Sep01 (granitz an)CORRALES GERARDO 118 30.00    
SCR  LEAVE IT TO KITTEN Jan04 Dec16 Nov08 Oct25 Sep20 (jarvis kathy)ACHARD ALEX 118 20.00    
6  LINCOLN HIGHWAY Nov26 Oct19 Sep17 Aug05 Jun24 (oliver victor)VELAZQUEZ R 118 15.00    
7  PIPELINE Jan27 Dec02 Oct01 Aug26 Aug03 (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 118 4.50 37% 1.70    
8  WOODCOCK FLIGHT (IRE) Mar07 Feb03       (puhich mi)LEPAROUX R 118 30.00    
9  NOT NORMAL Feb22 Jan30 Jan11 Jun13 May22 (murphy conor)CONNER TYLER 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  NOISES OFF Jan05 Sep30 Aug31 Jul23 Jun22 (lobo h)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
SCR  AMERICAN DIAMOND Mar03 Jan06 Dec14 Oct19 Sep10 (joseph saffie )ROSARIO JOEL 120 6.00    
SCR  BELOUNI (FR) Mar02 Jul07 Jun03 Apr22 Mar04 (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
SCR  BLOODLINE Mar23 Mar07 Feb03 Dec07 Apr29 (fosdick steve)JIMENEZ ALBIN 118 30.00    
14  HE'S GOT THIS Mar10 Feb15 Jan13 Dec22 Dec01 (troiani niccolo)LANERIE J 118 8.00 34% 1.90    
SCR  BRUMBA WAFFLE TOES Oct23 Oct03 Sep18 Aug29 Aug09 (rice adam)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 20.00    
SCR  HIGH TIDE Mar10 Feb08 Jan11 Nov17 Oct06 (atras rob)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.