Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Mahoning Valley
Thursday - December 28, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

MVR-1   WIN (4/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/2)-(4/2/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (4/2)-(4/2/1)-(4/2/1) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (4/2)-(4/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (4/2)-(4/5)-(3/6/1) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
MVR-2   WIN (4/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/5)-(4/5/7) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (4/5)-(4/5/7)-(4/5/7) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (4/5)-(3/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/5)-(3/6/1)-(4/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
MVR-3   WIN (3/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/1)-(3/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/1)-(3/6/1)-(3/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/1)-(4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/6/1)-(4/3)-(8/5/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
MVR-4   WIN (4/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/3)-(4/3/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (4/3)-(4/3/1)-(4/3/1) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (4/3)-(8/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/3)-(8/5/6)-(2/8/12/5/7) 30 $0.50 $15.00 
MVR-5   WIN (8/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/5/6)-(8/5/6/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/5/6)-(8/5/6/2)-(8/5/6/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/5/6)-(2/8/12/5/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/5/6)-(2/8/12/5/7)-(5/1/2/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
MVR-6   WIN (2/8/12/5/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/8/12/5/7)-(2/8/12/5/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/8/12/5/7)-(2/8/12/5/7)-(2/8/12/5/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/8/12/5/7)-(5/1/2/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/8/12/5/7)-(5/1/2/8)-(8/2/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
MVR-7   WIN (5/1/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/2/8)-(5/1/2/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/2/8)-(5/1/2/8)-(5/1/2/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1/2/8)-(8/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/1/2/8)-(8/2/6)-(1/2/10/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
MVR-8   WIN (8/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/2/6)-(8/2/6/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/2/6)-(8/2/6/4)-(8/2/6/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/2/6)-(1/2/10/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
MVR-9   WIN (1/2/10/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/10/4)-(1/2/10/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/10/4)-(1/2/10/4)-(1/2/10/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
MVR-1   12/28/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 2 F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WINGS OF HEAVEN Dec13 Nov28       (tumblin andre)BARBARAN ERIK 122 4.50    
  (by FORT LARNED out of CAMP FAIRFAX R N by FOREST CAMP)
WINDY DANCER         (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 122 3.50 28% 2.60    
  (by INDY WIND out of OLD CENTRE by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
HOT PRINCESS (GB) Dec13         (lopez jacinto)CEDILLO MAURO 122 10.00    
  (by BOLD RED out of DONE GOOSE by MONGOOSE)
SPUNKY ONE         (da)SALAZAR FERNANDO 122 3.00 48% 1.10    
  (by ONE SIDED out of LIL COUNTRY GRAD by MAGNA GRADUATE)
SCR  MY DANIELA Dec13 Nov28       (sweeti)BATISTA ALBERTO 122 2.50    
  (by ONE SIDED out of LA LUNA ROUGE by LEROIDESANIMAUX (BRZ))
IT'S E Z Jun15 Jun03       (fad)GIRON ALEJANDRO 122 6.00    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of HULA SKIRT by DIXIE UNION)
SCR  PITY PURCHASE Nov13 Oct28 Oct10 Sep21   (langley josh)TAPARA BRANDON 122 10.00    
  (by MEDAL COUNT out of MILWAUKEE QUEEN by MILWAUKEE BREW)
 
MVR-2   12/28/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 2 F PT- 1:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COWGIRLS HUMOR Dec13 Nov28 Nov13 Oct28   (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 122 20.00    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of CHIC CAT by TIGER RIDGE)
SCR  BOLD RUBY Dec13         (lopez jacinto)CEDILLO MAURO 122 12.00    
  (by BOLD RED out of O. T. HUGHES by HENNY HUGHES)
SOMETHING LUCKY Nov28 Nov13       (doering mark)GONZALEZ KEVIN 122 15.00    
  (by ITSMYLUCKYDAY out of SOMETHING NAUGHTY by INTO MISCHIEF)
LIGHTENING LOTTIE         (dacosta jason)DIAZ I 122 1.80 33% 2.00    
  (by DRILL out of DOTTHEI by HAYNESFIELD)
HISTORYINTHEMAKING Dec13 Nov28 Nov13 Oct28 Sep21 (sweeti)BATISTA ALBERTO 122 1.60 33% 2.00    
  (by WILLIAM'S KITTEN out of MAKING HISTORY by PROUD CITIZEN)
SCR  PRADA MANDALA         (silva fernando)REYES FRANK 122 10.00    
  (by MEDAL COUNT out of PRAY FOR GRACE by SONGANDAPRAYER)
RIVER HUSTLER         (cline c)YARANGA Y 122 3.00    
  (by RIVERS RUN DEEP out of I'M READY by MORE THAN READY)
 
MVR-3   12/28/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($25.9K) 2 ALL PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EL BAMBINO Nov22 Oct23 Oct03 Sep05   (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 120 6.00 11% 8.10    
SCR  M EIGHTY Nov29 Oct23       (reed r)HALDAR J 122 10.00    
YOU BET A FORTUNE Dec12         (bernar)BATISTA ALBERTO 122 3.50 36% 1.80    
ROYALLY FLUSHED Nov22 Nov07 Oct24 Oct06 Sep23 (short travis )BRACHO A 120 15.00    
MOONLIGHT JOKER Sep12 Aug26 Aug11 Aug03 Jul03 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 120 8.00    
POKER PARTNER Nov22 Oct23 Sep23 Aug21 Jul18 (da)SALAZAR FERNANDO 120 2.50 24% 3.30    
SCR  MON GATEAU Dec15 Nov16 Sep27 Sep02   (farrior anthony)RIVERA R 120 5.00    
LUCKY COUGAR Dec02 Nov22 Oct14 Sep27 Sep05 (dacosta jason)HOUGHTON D 117 4.00    
 
MVR-4   12/28/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GILLIGAN Dec11 Nov21 Nov02 Oct24 Oct01 (mahan p)PAUCAR E 124 15.00    
SCR  ROYAL MAHOGANY Dec01 Nov02 Oct21 Sep15 Aug18 (farrior)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 10.00    
SAVVY LAYLA Dec11 Nov15 Oct24 Oct10 Sep27 (bernar)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 8.00 14% 6.10    
WOODLAND WALK Dec11 Nov30 Nov01 Oct10 Sep26 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 126 1.80 56% 0.80    
SCR  PERFECT WAGER Dec13 Dec04 Nov04 Oct26 Oct07 (zawitz joel)HOUGHTON D 126 6.00    
BEACH FRONT Dec14 Nov29 Sep16 Aug23 Aug12 (haehn r)REYES FRANK 126 5.00    
SCR  UNIDENTIFIED MAN Oct24 Sep28 Sep12 Aug22 Jul31 (urieta joh)COLINA ALEJANDRO 124 12.00    
SCR  INSIDE STUNT Nov22 Nov12 Oct22 Oct07 Aug20 (farrior anthony)RIVERA R 124 3.50    
LOST IN MANHATTAN Dec04 Aug15 Jul17 Jul12 Jun05 (rom)GIRON ALEJANDRO 124 20.00    
 
MVR-5   12/28/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($19.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WHISKEY HELPS Dec11 Nov27 Nov16 Sep21 Aug30 (salcedo ra)SMITH DIOGDINABI 124 4.00    
NO MAS CERVEZA Dec13 Nov22       (sm)SALAZAR FERNANDO 125 4.50    
SWEET JILL'S JACK Jul27 Jun09 May31 May16 Apr12 (campbell anthon)VEGA L 124 8.00    
SCR  NOSEY POWER Dec11 Nov16 Oct24 Sep27 Sep12 (spiess m)YARANGA Y 124 10.00    
BUCKEYE CHARLIE Nov16 Oct25 Mar30 Mar01 Feb09 (anderson susa)BRACHO A 124 6.00 23% 3.40    
HARSH TRUTH Dec11 Nov27 Oct11 Aug28 Aug09 (skerret)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 123 3.50 17% 4.90    
THE GOSPEL OF MARK Dec04 Nov08 Oct24 Sep28 Aug24 (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 124 15.00    
GOOD MUSIC Dec11 Nov16 Sep18 Aug31 Jul31 (rone mike)RIVERA R 123 3.00 26% 2.90    
 
MVR-6   12/28/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MOON PARTY Dec13 Nov13 Sep28 Sep13 Aug12 (haehn r)REYES FRANK 124 20.00    
ROSE KNOWS Oct23 Oct02 Sep04 Aug07 Jul20 (skerrett jeffr)DIAZ I 124 2.50 47% 1.10    
PURDY PUMKIN Dec07 Oct10 Sep21 Aug29 Aug10 (dacosta jason)HOUGHTON D 124 4.50    
VAVITE Dec13 Nov27 Nov01 Oct23 Oct02 (morales sau)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 12.00    
POLITICAL ASTRAY Dec07 Nov27 Nov13 Oct17 Sep24 (langley joshu)CEDILLO MAURO 124 20.00 6% 16.70    
FALL CAMPAIGN Dec13 Nov13 Oct02 Sep20 Sep06 (sondej amy)TOLEDO S 124 6.00    
IRON BERTIE Dec13 Nov15 Oct25 Oct17 Oct01 (fiesman robe)GONZALEZ KEVIN 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
LORI'S EYES Dec13 Nov13 Oct04 Sep11 Aug14 (pappada juli)KEISER CHELSEY 124 8.00 21% 3.90    
ENCHANTED MELODY Dec04 Nov14 Sep14 Aug22 Aug01 (fa)SALAZAR FERNANDO 125 10.00    
10  MYRA FLEENER Dec03 Nov22 Nov15 Nov08 Oct29 (lopez carlos)TAPARA BRANDON 124 20.00    
11  BIG BANG BLUE Dec13 Nov21 Oct31 Sep04 Aug22 (bernar)BATISTA ALBERTO 123 12.00    
12  DULCE VICTORIA Dec13 Nov27 Nov13 Oct19 Oct05 (schuster robin)AVILES YAN 123 5.00 6% 16.00    
 
MVR-7   12/28/2023 5490ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($25K) Purse ($27.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STAR HAWK Dec05 Nov14 Oct12 Sep26 Aug28 (erdel john)DIAZ I 124 3.00 14% 6.40    
BIG TRUCK Nov30 Nov01 Aug26 Aug05 Jun24 (smith l)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 8.00 10% 9.20    
SCR  THRU THE VINE Dec21 Nov29 Nov01 Aug29 Jul24 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 124 5.00    
GOING IN STYLE Dec20 Dec04 Nov21 Nov01 Oct24 (bailey ricardo)HOUGHTON D 123 15.00    
COME SEE ABOUT IT Nov29 Sep20 Aug29 Jul19 Jun24 (sm)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 3.50 52% 0.90    
ZERO GRAVITY Dec18 Nov27 Nov13 Nov01 Oct09 (ramgeet tina)RAMGEET R 124 4.50    
DISCLOSURE Dec20 Dec05 Nov14 Nov01 Oct25 (bailey ricard)BARBARAN ERIK 124 12.00    
STRIKE APPEAL Nov20 Sep26 Sep12 Aug22 Aug09 (londono odin )BRACHO A 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
HUNTER SCOTT Nov02 Sep26 Aug06 Jul16 Apr11 (aceved)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 10.00    
 
MVR-8   12/28/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($36.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OUR BUCKWHEAT Nov28 Oct04 Aug10 Jul22 Jul04 (wolochuk dav)KEISER CHELSEY 123 8.00    
TEAM LEYENDECKER Dec13 Nov28 Aug09 Jul12 Jun24 (ramgeet tina)RAMGEET R 124 4.00 26% 2.90    
DASH OF FIRE Dec14 Nov14 Nov01 Oct04 Sep14 (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 126 10.00    
THE PINK Z Nov28 Nov06 Oct23 Sep06 Jul14 (silva fernando)REYES FRANK 124 6.00    
SCR  ELLIOT THE DRAGON Jun24 Jun01 Apr26 Jan28 Jan11 (ibarra)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 4.50    
WETZEL Nov09 Oct23 Sep30 Sep11 Aug23 (cline robert)HALDAR J 123 10.00 6% 14.50    
SCR  PAINT THE TOWN Nov28 Oct23 Jun24 Jun02 May05 (gorham robert )DIAZ I 123 3.00    
KNOCK WOOD Dec13 Nov28 Nov09 Oct30 Oct03 (tumblin andre)BARBARAN ERIK 124 5.00 37% 1.70    
HITE Dec18 Dec07 Nov28 Nov09 Oct23 (vazquez ivan)HOUGHTON D 124 20.00    
 
MVR-9   12/28/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($33.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
I STRONG Nov27 Oct25 Oct12 Sep11 Aug16 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 123 6.00 34% 2.00    
FAST CLIP Oct25 Oct03 Aug31 Aug14 Jul27 (fa)SALAZAR FERNANDO 123 8.00 22% 3.50    
CONSTITUTION COAL Dec14 Nov27 Nov16 Oct22 Sep29 (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 123 15.00    
RAY'S EMPIRE Jul06 Jun19 May29 May11 Apr25 (szczepanski emil)AVILES YAN 123 15.00 6% 14.70    
G T THREE FIFTY May16 Mar04 Feb10 Jan13 Sep29 (radosevich ju)BRACHO A 124 4.00    
C V JERSEY BEE Nov27 Sep29 Jul23     (salcedo ramon)LEON A 123 12.00    
HOTROD BOBBY Nov27 Mar02 Feb16 Jan31 Dec30 (dacosta jason)HOUGHTON D 123 15.00    
SCR  I'M HIM         (engler jeff)NAVA-MARIN JOSE 124 3.00    
SCR  WILDCAT PRIDE Nov27 Oct25 Oct03 Sep19 Mar02 (gorham robert)CEDILLO MAURO 123 5.00    
10  YIPPEE KI YAY Nov27 Jun15 Feb16 Jan31 Jan04 (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 123 12.00 14% 6.30    
SCR  LOTSA MATCHA Oct10 May08 Mar20 Feb21 Jan19 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 123 10.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.