The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results

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Mahoning Valley Race Course
Monday - December 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

MVR-1   Win (3/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 3 1 1 $2.80 $2.80 -1.20
MVR-2   Win (5/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $9.40 $9.40 3.40
MVR-3   Win (3/9/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 1 $2.40 $2.40 -5.60
MVR-4   Win (5/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $8.20 -6.00
MVR-5   Win (6/11/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 11 1 1 $5.80 $5.80 -2.20
MVR-6   Win (1/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $3.20 $3.20 -2.80
MVR-7   Win (6/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $8.00 $8.00 2.00
MVR-8   Win (8/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 8 1 1 $6.00 $6.00 0.00

Simulator Race results

 
MVR-1   12/11/2023 3960ft DIRT GOOD Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($19.5K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:233 :482 1:014     1:162   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HOLLYS SUPER STAR 3 1 12 1   13 1(radosevich justin)RIVERA R 126 1.60 70% 0.40 0.40 W
CABARET FLEUR 4 2 3 3   23 2(overholt g)DIAZ R 126 8.00 15.30  
APPALACHIAN SPIRIT 7 3 65 44   33(cline c)ROSARIO L 125 15.00 41.20  
SUPER SCAMP 1 7 76 77   54(cline c)GONZALEZ A 125 10.00 31.20  
SHE'S A SOLDIER 5 5 5 56   610½ 5(reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 125 4.00 7.40  
BOLD NICKY 2 4 22 2   46(maddox rachael)PAUCAR E 126 6.00 5% 19.00 11.70  
EXTRA CRAFTY 6 6 4 6   714½ 721¼ (guciardo robert)VELEZ J 126 3.00 3.20  
 
MVR-2   12/11/2023 3960ft DIRT GOOD Claiming ($8K) Purse ($21.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:12
See original race card.
:231 :471 1:001     1:14   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TALE OF THE LYON 4 3 32 3.2   11(poole m)AVILES YAN 124 3.00 16% 5.20 3.70 W
JETTIN PEGASUS 1 6 54 6   42(suarez ja)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 5.00 2.50  
SUSHI Q 2 4 1½ 1nk   233 (morales saul )SEVERINO VICTOR 124 4.00 3.90  
CHECK OUT LINE 6 1 44 4   34(calderon ivan)BARBARAN ERIK 124 8.00 14.40  
CAT'S RHYTHM 5 2 6 5   54 56 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 124 2.50 43% 1.40 2.20  
APPEALING SENORITA 3 5 2½ 2nk   65 6(gonza)GIRON ALEJANDRO 124 3.50 9% 10.20 5.30  
 
MVR-3   12/11/2023 3960ft DIRT GOOD Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:40
See original race card.
:224 :46 :583     1:12   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WOODLAND WALK 2 4 21 1½   13 1(shanyfelt valeri)GONZALEZ A 124 2.50 53% 0.90 0.20 W
ENZOEXPRESS 1 5 11 2½   23 2(pizzurro jo)HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 124 10.00 45.50  
SAVVY LAYLA 7 8 8 3   38 311 (bernardi)BATISTA ALBERTO 126 4.00 10% 9.50 5.10 S
PARKER 3 7 5 4   4411¼ (salcedo ramon)REYES FRANK 124 10.00 20.00  
OVERBEARING 5 2 43 58   511½ 514½ (pappada julie )ROSARIO L 124 8.00 5% 19.00 38.90  
GILLIGAN 8 3 6 810   716 617¾ (clouston edward)PAUCAR E 124 4.50 13% 6.80 10.80  
CHIC N WILBUR 4 1 33 710   615½ 718¾ (pappada a)AVILES YAN 124 10.00 47.40  
D'MONEY HONEY 6 6 7 6   819 826¼ (smith lar)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 6.00 20.20  
SCR  CHAMPION BY DESIGN               (brooks e)RIVERA R 124 10.00    
 
MVR-4   12/11/2023 3960ft DIRT GOOD Claiming ($8K) Purse ($21.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:08
See original race card.
:234 :481 1:011     1:143   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SARAH JANE 2 2 31 32   3½ 1nk (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 124 10.00 3.10  
DANCIN' ROSIE 5 1 11 2½   1nk 2nk (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 126 2.00 44% 1.20 0.40 P
WHERETHERE'SSMOKE 4 6 21 1½   2nk 3(bernardi)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 8.00 6% 14.70 9.60 S
CATABOUT 1 5 65 6   54 4(faulkner rodney)TOLEDO S 124 10.00 16.40  
NOT A WILD BRAT 3 4 4 5   45(radosevich jef)BERRIOS HECTOR 124 5.00 28% 2.60 7.30  
J J'S FANCY 6 3 52 43   67 615 (morales saul )SEVERINO VICTOR 124 20.00 30.50  
SCR  DIVA POWER               (vecchio caryn)TAPARA BRANDON 124 1.40    
 
MVR-5   12/11/2023 3960ft DIRT GOOD Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($14.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
See original race card.
:223 :463 :593     1:13   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  ONE MORE RING 8 1 6 6   21(buttigieg kevin)GONZALEZ A 123 4.00 20% 4.00 1.90 W
QUANTUM THEORY 5 4 4 2½   12(bernardin)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 126 4.50 7.30  
RIKIO 4 3 5 3   32 3(farrior anthony)RIVERA R 124 3.50 40% 1.50 1.30 S
FIVE STAR PHIL 6 8 8 7   44(szczepanski emily)AVILES YAN 124 12.00 21.90  
BOSS BEAR 3 7 7 8   79 5(skerrett jeffr)ROSARIO L 124 10.00 9% 9.70 24.50  
HOUSEBUILDER 1 6 21 53   6612¾ (bernardini ja)OLIVEROS CHARLE 123 8.00 9% 10.70 5.30  
10  FRANK N DUCKY 7 2 11 1½   5712¾ (sondej amy)TOLEDO S 124 20.00 72.70  
UPTOWN GUY 2 5 31 42   811 816 (casalinova tina)HOUGHTON D 124 12.00 12.10  
SCR  I ONCE STOOD ALONE               (brooks ger)FERNANDEZ R 125 6.00    
SCR  REINSURE               (zielinski ric)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 12.00    
SCR  ROCKET DOCKET               (elliott)ULLOA PATRICIO 124 10.00    
 
MVR-6   12/11/2023 3960ft DIRT GOOD Claiming ($10K) Purse ($19.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:04
See original race card.
:231 :474 1:01     1:143   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BUCKEYE RED 1 3 11 1   14 1(maddox rachael)PAUCAR E 124 4.00 32% 2.10 0.60 W
HARSH TRUTH 7 4 68 5   34 2(skerrett )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 123 3.00 7.10  
WHISKEY HELPS 4 7 711½ 7   63(salcedo ramo)SMITH DIOGDINABI 124 4.50 13.30  
GOOD MUSIC 6 1 3 3   24 4(rone mike)FERNANDEZ R 123 2.50 28% 2.60 2.90  
HAPPY TAKEOVER 5 2 5 46   55(campbell anthony )VEGA L 124 10.00 52.10  
KING PATRIOT 3 5 21 2   46(rone mike)RIVERA R 123 5.00 12% 7.40 7.60  
NOSEY POWER 2 6 45 6   77(spiess m)BRACHO A 124 10.00 32.40  
 
MVR-7   12/11/2023 5280ft DIRT GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:33
See original race card.
:25 :493 1:154 1:293   1:441   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WINDY VALLEY 3 2 1 1 1 14 19 (londono j)BRACHO A 126 2.50 13% 6.90 3.00 W
SMARTASSET 6 3 4 3 2 24 29 (cline rob)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 126 1.80 38% 1.70 1.50 P
DOMINUS O'S ME 4 1 3 4 34 34 310¼ (urieta johanna)REYES FRANK 125 2.00 28% 2.50 2.00 S
J. P INDY 5 4 6 54 48 47 413¼ (cline c)DIAZ I 125 6.00 4.70  
SHE'S A BIG GIRL 2 6 54 6 59 512 521¼ (crumley jevon)HOUGHTON D 125 12.00 28.00  
MI CANCION 1 5 2 2 610½ 618 636½ (erdel john)SMITH DIOGDINABI 125 12.00 28.90  
 
MVR-8   12/11/2023 3630ft DIRT GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($24.3K) 2 F PT- 4:02
See original race card.
:224 :471       1:073   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KACHOW 6 1 12 11   14 1(hamm)SALAZAR FERNANDO 122 3.00 57% 0.80 2.00 W
KATERYNA 2 3 3 21   24 2(rivera nestor)DIAZ I 122 4.50 1.70  
NOT TODAY 1 4 22 31   35 38 (buttigieg)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 122 3.50 9% 10.10 4.80 S
ANOINTED OF GOD 5 5 54 5   48 4(douaihy miche)OLIVEROS CHARLE 122 6.00 2.40  
LUNA PRIMAVERA 4 2 43 45   510 515 (atala)GIRON ALEJANDRO 122 15.00 33.00  
FREEDOM SAKE 3 6 68 611½   617 621 (morzan e)YARANGA Y 122 15.00 7% 13.50 24.10  
SCR  GHOST PLAZA               (lucas t )BATISTA ALBERTO 122 8.00    
SCR  NO BODY LOVES ME               (short thomas)BARBARAN ERIK 122 12.00    
SCR  NOW I'M HERE               (brooks e)RIVERA R 122 5.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.