Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Mahoning Valley
Monday - December 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
MVR-1   WIN (3/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/2)-(3/6/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (3/2)-(3/6/2)-(3/6/2) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (3/2)-(5/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/2)-(5/4/3)-(3/9/8/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
MVR-2   WIN (5/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/3)-(5/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/3)-(5/4/3)-(5/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/3)-(3/9/8/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/4/3)-(3/9/8/6)-(5/3/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
MVR-3   WIN (3/9/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/9/8/6)-(3/9/8/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/9/8/6)-(3/9/8/6)-(3/9/8/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/9/8/6)-(5/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/9/8/6)-(5/3/4)-(6/11/5/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
MVR-4   WIN (5/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/4)-(5/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3/4)-(5/3/4)-(5/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/3/4)-(6/11/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3/4)-(6/11/5/1)-(1/6/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
MVR-5   WIN (6/11/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/11/5/1)-(6/11/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/11/5/1)-(6/11/5/1)-(6/11/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/11/5/1)-(1/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/11/5/1)-(1/6/3)-(6/4/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
MVR-6   WIN (1/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/3)-(1/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/6/3)-(1/6/3)-(1/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/6/3)-(6/4/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/6/3)-(6/4/3)-(8/1/4) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
MVR-7   WIN (6/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/3)-(6/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/3)-(6/4/3)-(6/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/3)-(8/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
MVR-8   WIN (8/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/1/4)-(8/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/1/4)-(8/1/4)-(8/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
MVR-1   12/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($19.5K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUPER SCAMP Sep13 Aug05 Jul05 Jun08 Aug02 (cline c)GONZALEZ A 125 10.00    
2  BOLD NICKY Nov22 Oct21 Oct04 Jun19 May31 (maddox rachael)PAUCAR E 126 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  HOLLYS SUPER STAR Nov22 Sep19 Aug30 Aug09   (radosevich justi)RIVERA R 126 1.60 70% 0.40    
4  CABARET FLEUR Nov07 Oct21 Aug16 Aug03 Jul20 (overholt g)DIAZ R 126 8.00    
5  SHE'S A SOLDIER Aug03 Jul05       (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 125 4.00    
6  EXTRA CRAFTY Nov22 Aug30 Aug09 Jul13 Jun20 (guciardo robert)VELEZ J 126 3.00 ★    
7  APPALACHIAN SPIRIT Sep13 Aug15 Aug03 Jul05 Jun08 (cline robert )CEDILLO MAURO 125 15.00    
 
MVR-2   12/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($8K) Purse ($21.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JETTIN PEGASUS Nov28 Nov14 Nov01 Oct06 Sep26 (suarez javier)CEDILLO MAURO 124 5.00    
2  SUSHI Q Nov29 May10 Apr26 Mar16 Feb28 (morales sau)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 4.00    
3  APPEALING SENORITA Nov20 Nov02 Oct28 Oct06 Sep26 (gon)GIRON ALEJANDRO 124 3.50 9% 10.20    
4  TALE OF THE LYON Nov20 Oct28 Oct06 Sep06 Aug14 (poole m)AVILES YAN 124 3.00 16% 5.20    
5  CAT'S RHYTHM Nov28 Nov14 Nov01 Oct06 Aug21 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 124 2.50 43% 1.40    
6  CHECK OUT LINE Nov29 Nov01 Sep19 Aug31 Aug08 (calderon ivan)BARBARAN ERIK 124 8.00    
 
MVR-3   12/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CHAMPION BY DESIGN Nov22 Nov02 Oct23 Oct04 Sep19 (brooks e)RIVERA R 124 10.00    
2  ENZOEXPRESS Nov01 Oct11 Sep13 Aug14 Aug06 (pizzurro )HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 124 10.00    
3  WOODLAND WALK Nov30 Nov01 Oct10 Sep26 Aug17 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 124 2.50 53% 0.90    
4  PARKER Nov19 Nov13 Oct29 Oct03 Sep21 (salcedo ramon)REYES FRANK 124 10.00    
5  CHIC N WILBUR Nov13 Oct09 Sep28 Sep12 Aug23 (pappada a)AVILES YAN 124 10.00    
6  OVERBEARING Nov29 Nov02 Oct11 Sep14 Sep01 (pappada juli)ROSARIO L 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  D'MONEY HONEY Oct23 Sep15 Aug26 Aug12 Jul21 (smith l)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 6.00    
8  SAVVY LAYLA Nov15 Oct24 Oct10 Sep27 Sep18 (bernar)BATISTA ALBERTO 126 4.00 10% 9.50    
9  GILLIGAN Nov21 Nov02 Oct24 Oct01 Sep20 (clouston edward)PAUCAR E 124 4.50 13% 6.80    
 
MVR-4   12/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($8K) Purse ($21.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CATABOUT Nov14 Oct06 Sep11 Aug17 Jul13 (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 124 10.00    
2  SARAH JANE Nov16 Oct28 Sep22 Sep11 Aug30 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 124 10.00    
3  NOT A WILD BRAT Nov20 Nov01 Oct10 Aug21 Aug02 (radosevich j)BERRIOS HECTOR 124 5.00 28% 2.60    
4  WHERETHERE'SSMOKE May24 May03 Apr12 Apr04 Feb16 (bernar)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 8.00 6% 14.70    
5  DANCIN' ROSIE Nov20 Nov01 Sep11 Aug21 Jun06 (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 126 2.00 44% 1.20    
6  J J'S FANCY Nov20 Oct12 Jul04 Jun13 May30 (morales sau)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 20.00    
SCR  DIVA POWER Nov16 Oct28 Oct02 Aug16 Aug02 (vecchio cary)TAPARA BRANDON 124 1.40    
 
MVR-5   12/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($14.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOUSEBUILDER Nov21 Nov09 Oct22 Oct09 Sep21 (bernardini )OLIVEROS CHARLE 123 8.00 9% 10.70    
SCR  I ONCE STOOD ALONE Nov24 Sep28 Sep04 Aug27 Aug14 (brooks g)FERNANDEZ R 125 6.00    
SCR  REINSURE Nov06 Jul06 Jun07 May20 May01 (zielinski r)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 12.00    
4  UPTOWN GUY Nov22 Nov02 Oct24 Oct05 Apr27 (casalinova tin)HOUGHTON D 124 12.00    
5  BOSS BEAR Nov29 Oct31 Oct04 Aug28 Aug03 (skerrett jef)ROSARIO L 124 10.00 9% 9.70    
6  RIKIO Nov22 Sep21 Aug31 Aug15 Jun17 (farrior anthony)RIVERA R 124 3.50 40% 1.50    
7  QUANTUM THEORY Nov16 Nov02 Oct03 Sep20 Aug29 (bernard)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 126 4.50    
SCR  ROCKET DOCKET Nov16 Nov07 Oct12 Sep14 Aug30 (ellio)ULLOA PATRICIO 124 10.00    
9  FIVE STAR PHIL Nov19 Aug11 Jul21 Jul01 Jun18 (szczepanski emil)AVILES YAN 124 12.00    
10  FRANK N DUCKY Nov22 Sep12 Jul11 Jun13 May15 (sondej amy)TOLEDO S 124 20.00    
11  ONE MORE RING Nov08 Oct10 Sep19 Aug29 Aug13 (buttigieg kevi)GONZALEZ A 123 4.00 20% 4.00    
 
MVR-6   12/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($10K) Purse ($19.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BUCKEYE RED Nov08 Oct25 Oct04 Jun06 May08 (maddox rachael)PAUCAR E 124 4.00 32% 2.10    
2  NOSEY POWER Nov16 Oct24 Sep27 Sep12 Aug22 (spiess shane )BRACHO A 124 10.00    
3  KING PATRIOT Sep27 Sep12 Sep23 Sep05 Jul11 (rone mike)RIVERA R 123 5.00 12% 7.40    
4  WHISKEY HELPS Nov27 Nov16 Sep21 Aug30 Aug17 (salcedo ra)SMITH DIOGDINABI 124 4.50    
5  HAPPY TAKEOVER Aug10 Jul17 May20 Apr27 Mar29 (campbell anthon)VEGA L 124 10.00    
6  GOOD MUSIC Nov16 Sep18 Aug31 Jul31 Jul06 (rone mik)FERNANDEZ R 123 2.50 28% 2.60    
7  HARSH TRUTH Nov27 Oct11 Aug28 Aug09 Jul24 (skerret)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 123 3.00    
 
MVR-7   12/11/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MI CANCION Nov22 Nov07 Oct04 Sep21 Feb20 (erdel john)SMITH DIOGDINABI 125 12.00    
  (by ITSTHESAMEOLDSONG out of PINOT NOIR by COWBOY CAL)
2  SHE'S A BIG GIRL Nov07 Oct21 Oct06     (crumley jevon)HOUGHTON D 125 12.00    
  (by HOSTILE TAKEOVER out of GONDOLE by AFLEET ALEX)
3  WINDY VALLEY Nov22 Oct23 Oct05 Sep19 Aug31 (londono odin )BRACHO A 126 2.50 13% 6.90    
  (by CALLIDE VALLEY out of ODESSA WIND by U S RANGER)
4  DOMINUS O'S ME Nov22 Oct23 Oct05 Aug12 Jul25 (urieta johanna)REYES FRANK 125 2.00 28% 2.50    
  (by DOMINUS out of NEIGH O ME by HALF OURS)
5  J. P INDY Nov22 Oct23 Oct05 Aug31 Aug12 (cline c)DIAZ I 125 6.00    
  (by CONGRATS out of JANNES PAUL by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
6  SMARTASSET Nov22 Oct23 Sep19     (cline r)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 126 1.80 38% 1.70    
  (by SMARTY JONES out of SOME GIVEN LEGEND by POINT GIVEN)
 
MVR-8   12/11/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($24.3K) 2 F PT- 4:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NOT TODAY Nov27 Oct19       (buttigi)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 122 3.50 9% 10.10    
  (by WHERE'S THE RING out of MISS DEFY by WAKI WARRIOR)
2  KATERYNA Oct21         (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 122 4.50    
  (by BUCCHERO out of CLASSY CITY LADY by CARSON CITY)
SCR  NO BODY LOVES ME Dec06         (short thomas)BARBARAN ERIK 122 12.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of MUFFIN TOP by BRAHMS)
4  FREEDOM SAKE         (morzan e)YARANGA Y 122 15.00 7% 13.50    
  (by BUCCHERO out of NAHEELAH by MR. LIVINGSTON)
5  LUNA PRIMAVERA Nov27         (ata)GIRON ALEJANDRO 122 15.00    
  (by MASTER SINGER out of PREVIOUS ESCORT by SOUTHERN ESCORT)
6  ANOINTED OF GOD         (douaihy miche)CEDILLO MAURO 122 6.00    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of FOURNINETEEN by FLATTER)
SCR  NOW I'M HERE Nov02 Oct18 Sep28 Sep10 Sep03 (brooks e)RIVERA R 122 5.00    
  (by AIROFORCE out of BALLET DANCER by PLEASANT DANCER)
8  KACHOW Oct21 Sep06       (ha)SALAZAR FERNANDO 122 3.00 57% 0.80    
  (by FAST ANNA out of AURA ROSE by UNCLE MO)
SCR  GHOST PLAZA         (lucas )BATISTA ALBERTO 122 8.00    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.