The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 

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Thistledown
Thursday - October 12, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

TDN-1   Win (7/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 3 1 0 $3.60 -4.00
TDN-2   Win (2/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 7 1 0 $17.00 -6.00
TDN-3   Win (3/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $3.80 $3.80 -2.20
TDN-4   Win (7/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 7 1 1 $3.80 $3.80 -0.20
TDN-5   Win (6/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $8.40 $8.40 2.40
TDN-6   Win (3/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 3 1 1 $2.40 $2.40 -1.60
TDN-7   Win (2/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $11.40 $11.40 5.40
TDN-8   Win (6/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 0 $6.20 -6.00

Simulator Race results

 
TDN-1   10/12/2023 5280ft DIRT FAST Allowance Purse ($32.5K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
:241 :48 1:123     1:374   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NOTARY 2 3 3 3 1nk 1½ 1½ (hernandez arman)BARBARAN ERIK 121 2.50 0.80  
STAR HAWK 1 1 25 25 2nk 2½ 2½ (erdel john)DIAZ I 119 5.00 22% 3.50 5.60 P
BEER CHASER 4 2 15 15 3½ 338 (puhl kim)GONZALEZ A 123 3.50 29% 2.40 1.10 S
COMPLY 3 4 49 47 4 44(rone mike)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 121 10.00 13.30  
SCR  BREEZY MONEY               (rivera nestor)BOWEN ROCCO 123 8.00    
SCR  CHANNEL FURY               (jackson r)RIVERA R 119 3.00    
SCR  OUTLIER               (ginter jr)AVILES YAN 119 6.00    
 
TDN-2   10/12/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33.9K) 2 ALL PT- 1:20
:223 :46 :584     1:12   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EKATI'S WAY 7 2 22 22   22 1¾ (cline c)ROSARIO L 118 4.50 7.50  
DIAL DIRECT 1 5 12 12   12 2¾ (gorham m)BARBARAN ERIK 118 3.00 24% 3.20 0.90 P
GOLDSTRIKER 5 1 6 413   310 3(wolochuk david)KEISER CHELSEY 118 3.50 8% 11.90 3.50 S
REIGNING DREAM 3 4 38 313   411½ 418¾ (shannon jennifer)AVILES YAN 118 8.00 30.10  
GRAY TORMENTOR 6 7 59 616½   515 518¾ (vazquez ivan)HOUGHTON D 118 6.00 13.50  
DOUBLE AGENT 2 3 49 515½   616 623½ (hamm timothy)LEBRON VICTOR 118 2.50 29% 2.40 3.40  
ITSMYLUCKYPAL 4 6 714 730½   733 748¼ (faulkner rod)HERNANDEZ ALVARO 118 12.00 29.20  
 
TDN-3   10/12/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Allowance Purse ($38.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
:222 :453 :581     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EXCITEMENT 5 3 33 43   2½ 1(hamm timothy)LEBRON VICTOR 115 3.50 17% 4.90 0.90 W
OKLAHOMA JOE 6 1 1 12   1½ 2(radosevich just)BRACHO A 119 4.50 9% 9.90 11.80 P
BUCKEYE SKY 3 5 43 33   33(maker michael)PETERSON FERRIN 115 2.50 51% 1.00 1.30 S
SWING STATE 4 4 5 54   44 48 (brown gl)BATISTA ALBERTO 119 5.00 8.40  
OHIO STRONG 7 2 2 22   54 511½ (ibarra marco)BARBARAN ERIK 119 12.00 33.10  
TURNING PAGES 2 6 7 710   7614½ (meyers shane)SEVERINO VICTOR 119 6.00 18.40  
CHOCOLATE RABBIT 1 7 6 6   6717¼ (cline c)HALDAR J 121 6.00 33.10  
SCR  WORTHY OPPONENT               (huffman candace )HOUGHTON D 119 12.00    
 
TDN-4   10/12/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Emerald Necklace Purse ($75K) 2 F PT- 2:20
:223 :47 1:00     1:133   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AUTHORITARIAN GIRL 5 1 1 12   11(mcdonald james)GONZALEZ A 118 3.00 38% 1.60 0.90 W
OH GLORIOUS DAY 3 3 34 22   22(vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 118 6.00 6.70  
FEELING EASY 4 4 56 55   3314¼ (hamm timothy)RIVERA R 118 2.00 37% 1.70 2.00 S
NANCYFROMTHEBLOCK 1 5 4 45   49 416½ (genovese r)FERNANDEZ R 118 20.00 26.60  
OFFICE CHATTER 2 2 2 34   510 522¾ (hamm timothy)LEBRON VICTOR 118 4.00 3.70  
SCR  MIZ KEETA               (gorham m)BARBARAN ERIK 118 3.50    
SCR  RIVERS RUN RED               (szczepanski )SMITH DIOGDINABI 118 15.00    
 
TDN-5   10/12/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($21.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:50
:224 :47 1:00     1:134   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MERE BAG OF SHELLS 3 3 2½ 1nk   1nk 1½ (radosevich s)AVILES YAN 117 2.00 25% 3.00 3.20 W
I'M JAC'D 1 2 41 2nk   2nk 2½ (vazquez ivan)PAUCAR E 121 6.00 11.60  
CHILLVILLE 4 4 31 4¾   33(lopez jacinto)CEDILLO MAURO 114 8.00 9.00  
TV TIZ GORGEOUS 2 5 5 5   44(tumblin andrew)TOLEDO S 123 3.00 20% 4.10 14.00  
VILLAGE CAT 5 1 1½ 3.2   5515¾ (jackson r)RIVERA R 115 1.80 26% 2.80 0.30  
SCR  SWEET CHELSEA               (genovese richar)BARBARAN ERIK 119 15.00    
 
TDN-6   10/12/2023 3630ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($18.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:20
:23 :47 :591     1:052   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SAMMY AND SHORTY 2 3 3 3   2nk 1(radosevich jeff)BRACHO A 119 1.80 73% 0.40 0.20 W
LUNCHATTHELIZARD 4 2 1½ 1½   1nk 2(overholt p)FERNANDEZ R 117 2.00 2.50  
ACCURATE 3 5 45 4   436 (calderon ivan)CEDILLO MAURO 114 8.00 16.20  
TURBO POWER 5 1 2½ 2½   32 4(gonzalez donaciano)PAUCAR E 121 4.50 5% 19.00 12.00  
NOTHINLASTSFOREVER 1 4 59 58   5511½ (tumblin andrew)TOLEDO S 119 20.00 38.30  
SCR  STARS N SPACE               (puhl kim)BOWEN ROCCO 121 3.50    
 
TDN-7   10/12/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($18.3K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
:223 :463 1:00     1:133   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CARMEN OHIO 1 6 64 5   21 1(radosevich jef)BERRIOS HECTOR 121 5.00 28% 2.60 4.70 W
HIGH CUPPER 4 2 5 6   42(urieta joha)HERNANDEZ H 119 10.00 33.60  
CITY SIGNS 3 4 1½ 1   11 3(urie)SALAZAR FERNANDO 123 2.50 0.50  
SHEZA POP STAR 2 5 2½ 3   31 4(radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 123 3.50 40% 1.50 3.30  
COWCHI 6 1 42 2   55(johnson l)CEDILLO MAURO 114 2.00 13.10  
J J'S FANCY 5 3 32 43   6610¾ (morales sa)FERNANDEZ R 119 5.00 5% 17.20 17.00  
 
TDN-8   10/12/2023 3960ft DIRT FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33.9K) 2 ALL PT- 4:20
:223 :464 :594     1:13   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GAPPER 4 4 56 5   211 (evans micha)CORREA L 118 2.50 2.10  
WHO DA BOSS 6 1 21 2nk   121 (gorh)SALAZAR FERNANDO 118 2.00 38% 1.60 1.40 P
ROMANIAN PRINCE 5 2 3 4   34 37 (zielinski richard)PAUCAR E 118 3.50 3.20  
CANNON MAN 3 6 66 6   67 414½ (figueroa j)DIAZ I 118 8.00 15.20  
AFFAIR TO REMEMBER 2 3 4 3   45 515 (urieta johanna)BARBARAN ERIK 118 5.00 12% 7.70 11.60  
NOAH MY BABY 1 5 11 1nk   55 621½ (poole m)GONZALEZ A 118 6.00 12% 7.70 7.60  
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.