Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Mahoning Valley
Thursday - February 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
MVR-1   TRI (6/4/2/5)-(6/4/2/5/3)-(6/4/2/5/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00  4-2-5 $27.45 $3.45 14%
MVR-2   EXA (1/3/4)-(1/3/4/6/2) 12 $2.00 $24.00  3-4 $51.40 $27.40 114%
    TRI (1/3/4)-(1/3/4/6/2)-(1/3/4/6/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00  3-4-2 $72.75 $54.75 304%
MVR-3   WIN (2/8/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00  2 $7.80 $1.80 30%
    DD (1/3/4)-(2/8/7) 9 $2.00 $18.00  3-2 $30.40 $12.40 69%
MVR-6   EXA (5/2/3)-(5/2/3/1/6) 12 $2.00 $24.00  2-3 $42.80 $18.80 78%
    TRI (5/2/3)-(5/2/3/1/6)-(5/2/3/1/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00  2-3-6 $74.80 $56.80 316%
    SFT (5/2/3)-(5/2/3/1/6)-(5/2/3/1/6)-(5/2/3/1/6) 72 $0.10 $7.20  2-3-6-5 $38.88 $31.68 440%
MVR-7   WIN (3/7/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00  7 $11.60 $3.60 45%
    EXA (3/7/6/1)-(3/7/6/1/5) 16 $2.00 $32.00  7-1 $42.80 $10.80 34%
    DD (5/2/3)-(3/7/6/1) 12 $2.00 $24.00  2-7 $35.00 $11.00 46%
    PK3 (6/11/4/7)-(5/2/3)-(3/7/6/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00  4-2-7 $35.80 $11.80 49%
Simulator Race results
 
MVR-1   02/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($24.3K) 3UP ALL PT-12:35
See original race card.
:251 :491 1:153 1:293   1:434   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  ALFIO 4 4 42½ 31½ 2nk 1½ 15½ (thornbury jef)GONZALEZ ALEX 126 2.00 16% 5.10 1.50 W
  (by MUCHO MACHO MAN out of RUSTICANA by PIONEERING)
2  WAITES KINGDOM 2 1 1nk 1nk 1nk 2½ 25½ (romero a)HOUGHTON D 126 5.00 15% 5.70 3.30 P
  (by ANIMAL KINGDOM out of CONQUEST SUMMERFUN by SUMMER BIRD)
5  ANCIENT MAN 5 6 66 54¾ 33 36½ 312½ (hughes w)DIAZ I 126 6.00 8% 11.00 9.10 S
  (by ZIVO out of BRAND ENHANCEMENT by GIROLAMO)
1  ZINFATUATION 1 3 31½ 41¾ 44 48 415½ (norris steph)TAPARA BRANDON 126 12.00 35.90  
  (by RAISON D'ETAT out of SKY LADY by SKY CLASSIC)
6  BON DEUX 6 2 2nk 2nk 66 617½ 528½ (rivera)BATISTA ALBERTO 126 2.50 36% 1.70 3.40  
  (by RAISON D'ETAT out of LA BELLE EPOQUE by TAPIT)
3  BLUNDER 3 5 55½ 66¼ 55 512½ 630½ (urieta johann)BARBARAN ERIK 126 3.00 ★ 2.90  
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of HALLIE GAY by SUMMER BIRD)
 
MVR-2   02/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:05
See original race card.
:224 :472 1:002     1:142   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  BOURBON SOCIAL 3 1 2½ 11½   16½ 17½ (patter)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 2.00 24% 3.20 1.00 W
4  LUCKY TO HAVE ME 5 5 87¼ 77¾   39 27½ (hernandez)CORREA L 124 15.00 14% 6.10 20.50 P
2  WHOVILLE 2 8 33 21½   26½ 38 (ri)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 3.50 ★ 7.50 S
5  GO STELLAIRE 6 6 77¼ 65¾   614¼ 49 (vickers richa)GONZALEZ ALEX 126 12.00 20.10  
7  BLACK BUTTE 8 3 56 55½   514 510½ (bird danny)GONZALEZ KEVIN 124 6.00 9.90  
1  ACT LIKE A LADY 1 4 67 88¾   816¼ 614¾ (cline robert)TAPARA BRANDON 126 1.80 34% 1.90 1.60  
6  FASHION FRAME 7 2 1½ 31½   414 714¾ (galloway kh)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 10.00 ★ 15.30  
1A  KAY BEE GEE 4 7 46 44½   716¼ 822 (cline robert)ROSARIO L 124 1.80 1.60  
 
MVR-3   02/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($13.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:35
See original race card.
:25 :492 1:161 1:302   1:442   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  KHOPILOT 2 2 11 11½ 11 11½ 1¼ (urieta johanna)YARANGA Y 126 4.50 28% 2.50 2.90 W
5  ONE FOR THE MONEY 5 8 76¾ 77¼ 54½ 31½ 2¼ (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 126 8.00 9.20  
8  INSACIABLE PRINCE 8 1 66½ 52¾ 21 21½ 37½ (ro)SALAZAR FERNANDO 126 2.50 24% 3.20 1.60 S
4  UNCLE DICK 4 7 813¾ 87¾ 79¼ 48½ 414½ (ramos francis)BRACHO A 126 10.00 ★ 13.30  
3  SHEA D CAPTURE 3 6 21 31½ 44½ 59½ 518¼ (gotera )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 126 4.00 ★ 6.30  
7  MY TWO AUNT JOANS 7 5 53½ 42½ 32 611 622½ (hamm timothy)PEREZ E 126 5.00 24% 3.20 4.00  
6  BAYTOWN BEAVER 6 3 31 21½ 64¾ 711½ 723½ (cain crystal)VIGIL NOEL 118 10.00 20.70  
1  AWESOME BREAK 1 4 43 65¾ 89¾ 815½ 829 (bird danny)HOUGHTON D 126 6.00 18.40  
 
MVR-4   02/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($19.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:03
See original race card.
1:16         1:16   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  LUNCHATTHELIZARD 3 4 11 13   112 119¾ (bernar)BATISTA ALBERTO 118 3.50 26% 2.90 0.50 W
1  CANTRUNWITHBIGDOGS 1 8 43 46   314 219¾ (radosevich je)BARBARAN ERIK 126 6.00 5.00  
4  OXBOW'S RIDE 5 3 74¼ 811   415½ 323¼ (bird danny)GONZALEZ KEVIN 126 5.00 ★ 12.00 S
9  DANES HEART 9 5 64¼ 56   515½ 424½ (vazquez ivan)YARANGA Y 126 4.50 9% 10.40 8.70  
8  A K A FIBBER MCGEE 8 1 21 23   212 524¾ (rone penny)AVILES YAN 121 8.00 ★ 21.10  
5  ALDUIN 6 2 54 68½   616½ 626¼ (vazquez iv)SMITH DIOGDINABI 126 12.00 86.20  
6  ROUGE TU RICHES 7 9 96¼ 79½   817¾ 732¼ (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 118 4.00 40% 1.50 4.70  
1A  MARK'S BUDDY JACIN 4 6 31 34   717½ 838¾ (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 118 6.00 5.00  
2  NEW YORK MIRACLE 2 7 85¼ 918   937¾ 954½ (zielinski r)SEVERINO VICTOR 118 12.00 72.00  
SCR  TRANSPIRED               (gorostiet)CORREA L 118 8.00    
 
MVR-5   02/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($21.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:31
See original race card.
:233 :48 1:013     1:152   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  RAINBOW SHIP 4 1 42¾ 43   22½ 12¼ (diehl cand)SMITH DIOGDINABI 124 3.50 10% 9.50 2.60 W
10  PENNY SHOTS 10 4 64¼ 53   34 22¼ (faulkner )CORREA L 124 15.00 40.20  
9  WHERETHERE'SSMOKE 9 3 2nk 11½   12½ 33¾ (huffman candace )RIVERA R 124 15.00 27.60  
5  BISCAYNE BAY 5 11 117½ 107¾   54¼ 43¾ (zielinski richard)PEREZ E 124 12.00 14.90  
8  GRIZABELLA 8 10 95½ 75½   75¾ 55½ (radosevich je)BRACHO A 124 10.00 ★ 8.20  
11  GAIL'S DANCER 11 5 74¼ 64   64¾ 66¾ (jo)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 6.00 16% 5.40 3.80  
2  SHEZA FINE JUSTICE 2 6 107½ 1110¾   119¾ 711¼ (wilson jr)AVILES YAN 119 5.00 6.00  
3  SARAH JANE 3 2 1nk 21½   44 811¾ (bates l)GONZALEZ ALEX 124 15.00 24.40  
7  BAY MAGIC 7 7 85¼ 96¾   85¾ 912¼ (calderon ivan)BARBARAN ERIK 124 20.00 5% 17.90 67.30  
6  DIVA POWER 6 8 32½ 32   97¾ 1013 (johnso)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 3.00 44% 1.30 3.80  
1  BOOGIE BOOGEE 1 9 53¾ 86½   108¾ 1116 (huffman candac)GONZALEZ A 124 8.00 8.30  
 
MVR-6   02/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:03
See original race card.
:251 :49 1:151 1:293   1:443   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  JOE BRRRR 2 5 54 33 21 12½ 13¼ (poole joe)CORREA L 124 2.00 9% 10.60 2.00 W
3  CATCHING MAGIC 3 1 33 23 33½ 32½ 23¼ (gotera ca)DIAZ I 124 5.00 6% 16.30 8.90 P
6  PRETTY LOUD 6 7 67 78¼ 48½ 45½ 38¼ (gomez alejan)GONZALEZ KEVIN 124 12.00 ★ 20.20 S
5  INGERSOLL 5 2 12 13 11 22½ 48¼ (west m)PEREZ E 124 1.60 62% 0.60 0.80  
7  MR. COMMISH 7 3 44 55½ 58½ 58 512½ (zielinski r)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 10.00 12.50  
1  GOLDEN OAK 1 6 77¼ 68 713 620 621 (fiesman ro)SMITH DIOGDINABI 124 15.00 ★ 39.60  
4  CURLIN LANE 4 4 22 43½ 610½ 726 734¼ (caldero)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 6.00 9.20  
 
MVR-7   02/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($33.7K) 3 ALL PT- 3:34
See original race card.
:23 :47 1:002     1:14   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
7  MEDIA DARLING 8 1 1nk 11   16½ 111 (gorostieta ciri)REYES FRANK 120 3.50 27% 2.60 4.80 W
1  PAINT THE TOWN 4 9 96¼ 78   58¼ 211 (gorham robert )DIAZ I 120 6.00 9% 9.70 3.10 P
2  LITTLE TOY GUNS 1 5 2nk 34   38 312 (tooley )PILARES P 120 10.00 15.60  
6  TROJAN TALE 6 7 63¼ 45   48 412¾ (maker michael )HOUGHTON D 120 2.50 14% 5.90 1.00  
8  AINT NO BANDLEADER 9 2 3½ 21   26½ 514½ (estvanko richard)AVILES YAN 115 10.00 27.30  
5  HOTROD BOBBY 5 3 52¾ 57½   68¾ 615¾ (dacosta jason)RIVERA R 120 5.00 ★ 16.20  
1A  SWING STATE 7 4 74¼ 88¼   811¾ 716 (gorham ro)CORREA L 122 6.00 3.10  
4  PRIMITIVO 3 8 85¼ 910¼   711¾ 821¼ (radosevich je)BARBARAN ERIK 120 10.00 38.50  
3  YIPPEE KI YAY 2 6 4¾ 67½   921¾ 934¼ (radosevich je)BRACHO A 120 4.50 28% 2.60 5.80  
 
MVR-8   02/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($33.7K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:04
See original race card.
:232 :474 1:012     1:152   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  NEAR PERFECT 8 1 1nk 24½   22½ 1¾ (gorham robert )DIAZ I 116 1.60 29% 2.50 0.20 W
9  KERRI'S MIRACLE 9 4 2nk 14½   12½ 2¾ (vazquez ivan)KEISER CHELSEY 126 8.00 26% 2.90 13.50 P
6  BEAUTIFUL LASS 6 7 65¼ 45   35½ 32¼ (morales saul)TAPARA BRANDON 124 10.00 58.10  
1  WILLIAMSBEACHBABE 1 6 41½ 67¼   511 47¾ (sweeti)BATISTA ALBERTO 116 4.00 ★ 6.30  
5  TV TIZ GORGEOUS 5 2 31 34½   49½ 57¾ (tumblin andre)BARBARAN ERIK 124 5.00 19% 4.30 10.10  
2  SEEKING THE MONEY 2 8 76¾ 78¼   614 68½ (faulkner rodney )AVILES YAN 119 6.00 ★ 29.00  
7  FAITHFUL SOLUTION 7 5 87¼ 810¼   817½ 711 (skerrett j)SMITH DIOGDINABI 124 15.00 96.30  
4  REYS PINA COLADA 4 3 51¾ 55¼   715 814¼ (schuster robin)RIVERA R 124 15.00 38.40  
3  ANIMO STAR 3 9 917¼ 913¼   918 916 (ri)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 15.00 32.60  
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

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