The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results

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Mahoning Valley Race Course
Monday - October 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

MVR-1   Win (3/8/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $3.20 $3.20 -2.80
MVR-2   Win (4/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 8 1 0 $35.80 -6.00
MVR-3   Win (4/3/9/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 4 1 1 $5.40 $5.40 -2.60
MVR-4   Win (4/8/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 1 $8.60 $8.60 0.60
MVR-5   Win (10/9/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 0 $17.40 -8.00
MVR-6   Win (1/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $2.80 $2.80 -3.20
MVR-7   Win (4/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $10.00 $10.00 4.00
MVR-8   Win (7/9/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 9 1 1 $5.40 $5.40 -0.60

Simulator Race results

 
MVR-1   10/30/2023 3960ft DIRT SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($24.3K) 3UP ALL PT-12:55
:233 :473 1:002     1:132   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KNICKS STORY 3 6 4 42   22 1¼ (colebrook ben)BRACHO A 123 1.20 62% 0.60 0.60 W
MOTOWN COLLECTION 5 1 1nk 1½   12 2¼ (rone mike)RIVERA R 123 10.00 5% 19.00 17.00 P
C C'S CLEAR CREEK 7 5 3.2 2½   43(trevino )BATISTA ALBERTO 126 8.00 13.30  
LOCO 4 8 7 53   34(hetrick krista )CEDILLO MAURO 121 3.50 3.50  
FINISTERE 2 9 6 6   54 56 (vecchio ca)FERNANDEZ R 123 20.00 66.00  
QUICK QUICK WHIT 8 2 2nk 3½   6610½ (skerrett )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 123 6.00 13% 6.50 4.60  
TWELVE MINUS ONE 9 3 5 7   7711¾ (dacosta jason)DIAZ I 123 20.00 44.30  
PAPA D L 1 7 9 8   811½ 814¾ (wilson jr)AVILES YAN 123 15.00 25.90  
EL BANDIDO 6 4 8 9   912½ 915¼ (tumblin andr)SMITH DIOGDINABI 123 15.00 36.20  
SCR  DARK BARON               (tumblin andrew)BARBARAN ERIK 123 20.00    
 
MVR-2   10/30/2023 3960ft DIRT SLOPPY Claiming ($6.5K) Purse ($17.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:23
:23 :464 1:00     1:14   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EL MARRO 7 1 2½ 2nk   1nk 1¾ (romero a)BERRIOS HECTOR 124 15.00 16.90  
OL' L B 4 4 1½ 1nk   2nk 2¾ (cline c)ROSARIO L 124 3.00 18% 4.50 7.20 P
MANNFORD 3 6 6 4   3.2 3(urieta johanna)BOWEN ROCCO 124 1.20 50% 1.00 0.30 S
ATTACK ANGLE 6 3 3 32   44(skerrett jeffrey)GONZALEZ A 124 15.00 14.40  
YOU'RE MY BOY BLUE 5 2 53 7   5510 (morales m)DIAZ I 124 4.00 10% 9.30 4.30  
MUCHO PRIMO 2 7 7 5   6610¾ (guciardo robert)VELEZ J 124 20.00 28.40  
JOES A ROCKIN 1 5 4 6   710¼ 715½ (hernandez rica)HALDAR J 124 15.00 44.10  
SCR  HONOR THE D               (bates l)LEBRON VICTOR 124 6.00    
 
MVR-3   10/30/2023 5280ft DIRT SLOPPY Claiming ($15K) Purse ($17.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:51
:244 :483 1:141 1:27   1:401   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
R CARDINAL PRINCE 4 1 11 1½ 1½ 13 1(dacosta jason)BOWEN ROCCO 121 5.00 35% 1.90 1.70 W
VAIL OF HONOR 1 9 9 8 52 23 2(farrior anthony)RIVERA R 124 3.00 14% 6.00 2.70 P
ALEXIS N NIKO 5 2 21 4 2½ 33 34 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 124 15.00 9.10  
CENTSOFWANDER 3 6 7 5 6 45 4(huffman candace )GONZALEZ A 124 6.00 16% 5.10 4.00  
GRAND DEAL 6 3 43 6 3 55(schuster robin)BRACHO A 124 20.00 31.00  
TOYI 2 4 5 3 4 67 611½ (tumblin andrew)PAUCAR E 124 20.00 47.40  
POT COMMITTED 7 7 6 7 7 710 715 (faulkner)BATISTA ALBERTO 126 4.00 6.00  
TOM'S SPIRIT 8 5 31 2½ 8 812 818¾ (cowans d)MOJICA JR 121 3.50 14% 6.00 10.60  
10  THISPOINTINTIME 9 8 8 9 9 919 932 (morelos mat)HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 124 20.00 52.50  
SCR  FOOD FOODIE               (farrior a)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 123 8.00    
 
MVR-4   10/30/2023 3960ft DIRT SLOPPY Claiming ($6.5K) Purse ($17.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:19
:223 :463 :594     1:13   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HOPPY GILMORE 3 5 3 3   12 1(rone mike)RIVERA R 124 3.00 10% 9.40 3.30 W
GOLDEN MONEY 8 1 56 5   42(rivera nestor)DIAZ I 124 2.50 30% 2.40 1.00 P
OAKEN 4 8 811 8   53(calderon ivan)CEDILLO MAURO 121 1.80 30% 2.40 4.40 S
TIDE RISING 7 3 6 66   64(mahan jos)PILARES P 124 20.00 21.50  
THE MAN CAN 1 4 11 2½   22 59 (faulkner rodney)TOLEDO S 124 20.00 26.90  
OHIO MUNNY 5 2 21 1½   3612¼ (galloway)BATISTA ALBERTO 126 10.00 6.10  
MURRY SPUR 2 7 7 7   8715½ (smith lar)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 8.00 8% 11.00 13.10  
MA MOO POWER 6 6 4 4   7816 (hernandez rica)HALDAR J 124 12.00 32.60  
 
MVR-5   10/30/2023 3630ft DIRT SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.1K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:47
:224 :473       1:082   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KRISTIN 5 3 11 1   11 11 (rettele richard)HOUGHTON D 124 8.00 7.70  
10  CONSTITUTIONALIST 8 2 31 2   21 21 (bernardi)BATISTA ALBERTO 121 5.00 42% 1.40 1.40 P
BEAUTY IN MOTION 7 1 21 3   33(farrior anthony)RIVERA R 123 4.00 18% 4.60 5.50 S
SURPRISED GEM 6 5 6 66   44(bailey ricardo)FELICIANO R 124 15.00 5% 19.00 2.60  
SOLDAT TEMPTATION 1 6 5 5   55(salcedo ramon)GONZALEZ A 124 4.50 13.30  
BELLAVALENCIA 4 4 43 4   66(fadlovich)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 3.00 18% 4.60 6.00  
THREE POINT KUZ 2 7 7100 7100   7100 8100 (morelos mat)HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 124 20.00 51.50 DH
LITTLE FOUR 3 8 8100 8100   8100 8100 (fiesman robert)GONZALEZ KEVIN 124 20.00 29.10 DH
SCR  SAUNTER               (sweeting)BATISTA ALBERTO 123 6.00    
SCR  SKIRTS KID               (rettele richar)HALDAR J 124 12.00    
 
MVR-6   10/30/2023 5280ft DIRT SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($35.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:15
:234 :481 1:141 1:273   1:413   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RED HEAD KID 1 2 11 11 1½ 11(fernandez edward)MCKEE J 124 2.00 49% 1.00 0.40 W
SMOOCHER 6 7 5 5 2½ 22(gorham m)DIAZ I 121 3.50 18% 4.50 4.90 P
ANIMO ROBERTO 5 5 49 4 3 3311¼ (tumblin andrew)BERRIOS HECTOR 121 10.00 6% 16.70 12.20 S
DANES HEART 3 4 33 32 4 413½ 420¼ (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 124 3.00 11.80  
HEIDI'S SINATRA 7 6 713½ 610½ 511½ 515½ 524¼ (haehn r)PAUCAR E 124 20.00 53.80  
GIBBY MY CORN 4 1 612½ 714½ 618½ 618½ 628¾ (trevino g)BOWEN ROCCO 126 6.00 18.80  
LIL RICKYS JEWEL 2 3 21 21 721½ 748½ 7100 (cline c)HOUGHTON D 124 15.00 6.80  
 
MVR-7   10/30/2023 5280ft DIRT SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($35.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:43
:24 :471 1:134 1:271   1:404   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KNOCK WOOD 1 2 4 4 3.2 13 1(tumblin and)CORREA L 126 6.00 5% 19.00 4.00 W
JEBIP 2 7 710¼ 6 5 32(vazquez ivan)PAUCAR E 124 4.50 10% 8.70 3.20 P
SPECIALIZED 4 4 3.2 1nk 1nk 23 3(gorham m)DIAZ I 121 2.50 63% 0.60 1.40 S
LEROYISALAGNIAPPE 5 1 1nk 3 4 4413¼ (bennett c)MCKEE J 124 10.00 9.00  
RED COMET 6 3 5 55 6 510½ 515¾ (bailey ricardo)FELICIANO R 121 20.00 29.00  
A PRAYER FOR KIDS 3 6 6 712½ 7 716 625½ (rettele richard)HOUGHTON D 124 8.00 9.80  
OHIO STRONG 7 5 2nk 2nk 2nk 615½ 733¾ (ibarra m)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 12.00 5.50  
SCR  RETURNONINVESTMENT               (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 121 2.00    
 
MVR-8   10/30/2023 3630ft DIRT SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 2 F PT- 4:11
:223 :472       1:073   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SALTMAKESHERSWEET 8 1 1 1   15 1(rone mike)RIVERA R 122 3.00 30% 2.30 1.70 W
COMPUTE THIS 7 2 54 43   25 2(wolochuk david)KEISER CHELSEY 122 3.50 45% 1.20 2.70 P
CURLIN PEARLS 3 7 7 6   47 3(gorham m)DIAZ I 122 15.00 12.00  
MISS SPRINGSTEEN 4 6 6 55   54(hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 122 15.00 6.80  
DERBY DAY KISS 6 3 3 3   357 (cline robe)FERNANDEZ R 122 12.00 5% 19.00 7.90  
MS. DEBBIE ALAN 5 8 8 7   712½ 611½ (waltz brian)AVILES YAN 122 10.00 12.50  
SPOOKY LITTLE GIRL 2 4 2 2   610½ 714¾ (cowans d)MOJICA JR 122 6.00 5.80  
OPIE'S GIRL 1 5 4 89   822½ 836½ (smith lar)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 122 8.00 20.30  
SCR  R SECRET LOVE               (ward wesle)RODRIGUEZ A 117 2.50    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries will win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.