Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 02, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/6)-(2/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/6)-(2/3/6)-(2/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/3/6)-(6/7/9/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/3/6)-(6/7/9/3)-(3/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/7/9/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/7/9/3)-(6/7/9/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/7/9/3)-(6/7/9/3)-(6/7/9/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/7/9/3)-(3/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/7/9/3)-(3/6)-(4/3/10/6) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-3   WIN (3/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/6)-(3/6) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3/6)-(4/3/10/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (3/6)-(4/3/10/6)-(5/3/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/3/10/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/10/6)-(4/3/10/6/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/3/10/6)-(4/3/10/6/7)-(4/3/10/6/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/3/10/6)-(5/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/10/6)-(5/3/7)-(8/3/6/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-5   WIN (5/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/7)-(5/3/4/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/3/7)-(5/3/4/7)-(5/3/4/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/3/7)-(8/3/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3/7)-(8/3/6/7)-(5/7/11/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-6   WIN (8/3/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/3/6/7)-(8/3/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/3/6/7)-(8/3/6/7)-(8/3/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/3/6/7)-(5/7/11/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/3/6/7)-(5/7/11/6)-(3/8/9/2) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-7   WIN (5/7/11/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/7/11/6)-(5/7/11/8/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/7/11/6)-(5/7/11/8/6)-(5/7/11/8/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/7/11/6)-(3/8/9/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/7/11/6)-(3/8/9/2)-(6/2/1/9) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-8   WIN (3/8/9/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/8/9/2)-(3/8/9/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/8/9/2)-(3/8/9/2)-(3/8/9/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/8/9/2)-(6/2/1/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/8/9/2)-(6/2/1/9)-(11/3/9/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-9   WIN (6/2/1/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/1/9)-(6/2/8/1/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/2/1/9)-(6/2/8/1/9)-(6/2/8/1/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/2/1/9)-(11/3/9/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-10   WIN (11/3/9/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (11/3/9/1)-(11/3/9/1/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (11/3/9/1)-(11/3/9/1/8)-(11/3/9/1/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/02/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FREE TIME Sep29 Sep01 Jul27 Jul05 Jun08 (esquivel )CORREA L 118 5.00    
2  TONE ELISE Sep24 May07 Apr10 Feb23 Jan07 (duffy sean)ASHTON GAVIN 121 4.00 38% 1.60    
3  SUNDAY GRACE Oct15 Sep18 Aug01 Jun23 May28 (hernandez rey)NAVAS YOEL 114 4.50 12% 7.30    
4  KEEN CONTENDER Oct16 Aug26 Aug01 Jun30 May19 (van thom)MORALES EDGAR 123 3.00    
5  RECOGNIZE ME Sep30 Sep07 Aug18 Jul29 Feb02 (blair jord)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 5.00    
6  COMMANDERS PALACE Oct07 Sep21 Sep07 Aug19 Feb16 (ales)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 121 10.00 12% 7.40    
SCR  LOST BIKINI Oct01 Aug22 Jul30 Jun26 May05 (reed r)MCKEE J 121 3.50    
 
CD-2   11/02/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SCARLET MISS Sep02         (macias adolfo)BEJARANO R 119 6.00    
2  LOST LOVE Oct08 Sep20       (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 5.00    
3  VINO FROM ERNIES Oct12         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  HUSH IT HONEY Sep21         (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
5  BABE IN THE WOODS Sep21 Aug26       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
6  SHARP FLAME         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 40% 1.50    
7  INTERCEPTION Sep21         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 20% 4.00    
8  SAKURA SKY Sep18 Aug28       (walden wi)TORRES A 119 4.50    
9  PARKINGTON         (begley greg)ACHARD ALEX 119 15.00 19% 4.20    
 
CD-3   11/02/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EL FRANCO Oct08 Sep10 Aug20 Apr01 Mar10 (norris mike)MACHADO LUAN 121 5.00    
SCR  PRINCE OF ROSES Oct06 Sep20 Aug12 Aug03 Jun14 (esquivel )CORREA L 118 6.00    
3  FAITHFUL KING Oct05 Sep23 Sep09 Aug05 Jul19 (watkins m)MCKEE J 120 5.00 71% 0.40    
SCR  MONKEY ZONE Oct20 Sep23 Sep14 Aug12 Jul19 (curtsi)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 114 15.00    
5  DOG RED Aug19 Jul19 Jun18 May28 Apr26 (o'dwyer j)LEPAROUX R 121 2.50    
6  MR. PETERKIN Sep15 Aug20 May27 Apr23 Apr01 (norris mike)CANUTO THIAGO 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  CARMICHAEL Oct12 Sep15 Aug04 Jun01 May11 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 2.00    
 
CD-4   11/02/2023 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TALE OF LA BEE         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00    
  (by BEE JERSEY out of TALE OF LA COMETE by TALE OF EKATI)
2  BRIGHT LADY DAY Oct06         (jackson christ)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
  (by RACE DAY out of LADY RELAUNCH by BRIGHT LAUNCH)
3  TEMPTING LADY Sep27 Aug30 Aug03     (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 27% 2.80    
  (by ENTICED out of FANTASTIC GIRL by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
4  CRAZY CAMI Oct06 Aug31 Aug13 Jul19   (maker mi)SANTANA JR 119 2.00 28% 2.60    
  (by AUDIBLE out of BE FRUITFUL by PULPIT)
5  MIDNIGHT ANGEL (GER) Oct19 Oct04 Sep18 Sep07 Aug08 (torres a)LEZCANO ABEL 119 15.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of PIKE CREEK by FOREST CAMP)
6  MARGARET'S LADY Sep20 Aug23 Aug02     (west w)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GORMLEY out of WITH SUGAR by SIDNEY'S CANDY)
7  MODAROSA         (mott riley)GEROUX FLORENT 119 10.00 ★    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of ESSENTIAL ROSE by BERNARDINI)
8  SILVERY MOON Oct06         (corrigan jim)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of RANGE MARKER by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
9  SHE'S A SHOPPER Jul22         (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of WINDOW SHOPPER by DYNAFORMER)
10  MIXER Oct12         (catalano w)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 3.00 24% 3.10    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of LEMON GIN by FIRST SAMURAI)
 
CD-5   11/02/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GUNNER BAY Sep16 Aug03 Jul07 Jun04   (margolis steph)ELLIOTT JANE 118 15.00    
2  POWER ALLEY Sep24 Aug30 Jul30 Jul01 May03 (forster grant )CASTANON L 118 10.00    
3  SUPREMELY Aug26 Jul31 Jun29 Jun10 May19 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.50 23% 3.40    
4  FAN THE FIRE Oct07         (brion ke)SANTANA JR 120 4.00 ★    
5  MASTER OF ARMS Oct07 Mar10 Feb17 Sep24 Jul08 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 120 3.50 41% 1.40    
6  WHAT A BLAST Oct09 Aug04 Jul05 Feb24 Jan20 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
7  RIVOLI Sep21 Aug19 Jun20 May03 Apr14 (west etha)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  SOUND DOCTRINE Oct13 Sep14 Jul28 Jun24 May25 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 15.00    
9  BALSA Oct10 Sep14 Aug10 Oct27 Sep01 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
 
CD-6   11/02/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PINE KNOLL Sep07 Jul20 Jul07 Jun15 Mar16 (medina ro)TORRES A 121 10.00    
2  NATIVE THUNDER Sep23 May27 May04 Mar25 Mar09 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 15.00    
3  ENGLISH TAVERN Sep14 Mar25 Feb18 Jan21 Dec26 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.00 25% 3.00    
4  TARTUFO Sep07 Jul08 Jun04 May25 Mar30 (vaccarezza c)TORRES A 121 12.00    
5  CHANCEUX Sep10 Aug05 Jul04 May29 Apr23 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 121 6.00    
6  ALEX JOON Aug12 Jul15 Apr23 Mar26 Nov18 (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 121 4.50 16% 5.40    
7  FRANZ JOSEF Oct18 Sep18 Aug21 Jul25 Jul03 (wismer gle)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00 9% 10.30    
8  FAIR DINKUM Sep07 Aug05 Jan29 Dec16 Nov02 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 29% 2.40    
9  FEBRUARY SON Sep01 Aug12 Jul11 Jun20 May29 (granitz anthon)CASTANON L 121 12.00    
SCR  TIWANAKU Jul23 Jun10 May11 Mar26 Nov02 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 3.00    
 
CD-7   11/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST A COED         (calhoun willi)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of STUDENT BODY by COLONEL JOHN)
2  LEMON MUFFIN Oct06         (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of PELT by CANADIAN FRONTIER)
3  FIGGY         (arnold ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of WE USE TO SING by MINESHAFT)
4  SPEIGHTER WOMAN         (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of PAJAMA BOTTOM by INCLUDE)
5  CRUISE MISSILE Aug19 Jun16       (diodoro r)TORRES A 119 4.50 38% 1.60    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of RUN AWAY'S SIS by CITY ZIP)
6  MOENCHANTED         (peitz dan )MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MO FOR THE MONEY out of ROBIN MY GIRL by MUTAKDDIM)
7  CANDY LOVER Oct05 Aug20 Jul23 Jun23   (devaux cheri)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 23% 3.30    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of TAURASI by MINESHAFT)
8  UNION MIST         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 ★    
  (by UNION RAGS out of MISTY AMERICAN by QUIET AMERICAN)
9  QUIMICHIS         (gutierrez faus)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of SO MUCH LOVE by ROBIN DES PINS)
10  IN JUST MY HEELS         (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of HIGH HEELS by E DUBAI)
11  MINK'S PALACE         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 16% 5.40    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of SCATTERING MINK by SCAT DADDY)
12  BERNAR MOSA         (maker michael)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of ROUGHING by ESKENDEREYA)
SCR  SILVER ROSE Sep27         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of PURE SILVER by MISSION IMPAZIBLE)
SCR  VIABLE         (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by CURLIN out of RELEVANT by HOLD YOUR PEACE)
SCR  FREEBURN         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
  (by MITOLE out of FIREFOOT by TAPIZAR)
SCR  PLAGNE CHAMPAGNE Oct06 Sep16       (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of SENTIMENTAL by HONOR CODE)
 
CD-8   11/02/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  J J'S JOKER Oct06 Aug19 Feb18 Jan21 Dec10 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
2  ANTARES Oct08 Aug30 Jul22 Jun06 Sep01 (morey e)FELIX E 118 4.00 12% 7.60    
3  MONEY SUPPLY Sep27 Aug26 Aug20 Apr01 Jan14 (sharp joe)TORRES A 121 5.00 36% 1.80    
SCR  HIGGINSON Oct22 Sep18       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 6.00    
5  HUNTSVILLE Oct12 Apr15 Mar04     (contreras c)QUINONEZ ALONSO 118 15.00    
6  ARRO SMASH Sep24 Aug26 Jul30 Jul02   (bauer phil)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00    
7  CAN'T HUSH THIS Oct08 Sep14 Aug13 Jul21 Jun29 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 12.00    
8  ABADIN Sep28 Aug19 Jul21 Jun11 May06 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 16% 5.20    
9  BANISHING Feb18 Dec26 Nov13     (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 15% 5.80    
 
CD-9   11/02/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EL ORIENTE (CHI) Jul08 Jun11 May06     (walsh bre)TORRES A 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  NO ONE TO BLAME Oct06 Sep01 Aug12 Jun25   (trombetta )CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00 27% 2.80    
3  FREEDOM'S WAY Feb12 Jan08 Jun20 May15 Apr16 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00    
4  MARQUET MALICE Oct06 Jul08 Apr22 Mar08 Nov30 (douaihy michel)AYALA ISAIAS 121 50.00    
5  SCRIPT Oct06 Apr13 Feb05 Jan08 Dec03 (motion h )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 3.50    
6  CHANTRY FLATS Mar30 Mar10 Feb04 Jan20 Jan01 (newton troy)FELIX E 121 6.00 44% 1.30    
7  PLAY ACTION PASS Oct13 Aug31 Aug05 Jul01 Jun01 (medina rober)GEROUX FLORENT 121 3.00    
8  WHISPER NOT (GB) Aug31 Aug19 Jul20 May25 May05 (maker mi)SANTANA JR 121 6.00 ★    
9  MICROPHONE (IRE) May19 Apr27 Mar02 Feb03 Oct21 (west w)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
10  COWBOY JUSTICE (GB) Oct11 Sep19 Sep14 Aug02 Jul28 (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 121 15.00    
SCR  SEARCH ENGINE Oct20 Aug12 May25 Feb28 Feb11 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 2.50    
 
CD-10   11/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 5:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SETEMFREE         (corrigan )HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  REMEMBER THE FEAR Aug27 Aug06       (catalano wayne)ASHTON GAVIN 119 4.00    
3  STUNNEM Oct11 Sep14 Aug26     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 25% 3.00    
4  DIFFERENT FLAME Sep29         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
5  CAMILAS WARRIOR Oct20         (chav)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 30.00    
6  HEAVY HITTER         (blair jordan)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
7  SUMMER IN AIKEN Oct01 Sep10       (sharp joe)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00    
8  CHARLIE ZULU         (simms jr)NAVAS YOEL 112 30.00 ★    
9  MASTER OF DISGUISE Sep13 Aug09 Jul12 Jun22   (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.50 7% 12.60    
10  BARREL THIEF Oct03         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 12.00    
11  CAPO Aug09         (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 44% 1.30    
SCR  MR BIG STUFF (GB)         (puhich mike)ELLIOTT JANE 119 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.