Handicappers' Racing Form

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Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 02, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (2/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-2   Win (6/7/9/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-3   Win (3/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-4   Win (4/3/10/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-5   Win (5/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-6   Win (8/3/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-7   Win (5/7/11/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-8   Win (3/8/9/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-9   Win (6/2/1/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-10   Win (11/3/9/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
CD-1   11/02/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FREE TIME Sep29 Sep01 Jul27 Jul05 Jun08 (esquivel je)CORREA L 118 5.00    
TONE ELISE Sep24 May07 Apr10 Feb23 Jan07 (duffy sean)ASHTON GAVIN 121 4.00 38% 1.60    
SUNDAY GRACE Oct15 Sep18 Aug01 Jun23 May28 (hernandez rey)NAVAS YOEL 114 4.50 12% 7.30    
KEEN CONTENDER Oct16 Aug26 Aug01 Jun30 May19 (van thomas)MORALES EDGAR 123 3.00    
RECOGNIZE ME Sep30 Sep07 Aug18 Jul29 Feb02 (blair jordan)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 5.00    
COMMANDERS PALACE Oct07 Sep21 Sep07 Aug19 Feb16 (alessi)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 121 10.00 12% 7.40    
SCR  LOST BIKINI Oct01 Aug22 Jul30 Jun26 May05 (reed r)MCKEE J 121 3.50    
 
CD-2   11/02/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 1:30
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCARLET MISS Sep02         (macias adolfo)BEJARANO R 119 6.00    
LOST LOVE Oct08 Sep20       (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 5.00    
VINO FROM ERNIES Oct12         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
HUSH IT HONEY Sep21         (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
BABE IN THE WOODS Sep21 Aug26       (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
SHARP FLAME         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 40% 1.50    
INTERCEPTION Sep21         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 20% 4.00    
SAKURA SKY Sep18 Aug28       (walden will)TORRES A 119 4.50    
PARKINGTON         (begley greg)ACHARD ALEX 119 15.00 19% 4.20    
 
CD-3   11/02/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EL FRANCO Oct08 Sep10 Aug20 Apr01 Mar10 (norris mike)MACHADO LUAN 121 5.00    
SCR  PRINCE OF ROSES Oct06 Sep20 Aug12 Aug03 Jun14 (esquivel je)CORREA L 118 6.00    
FAITHFUL KING Oct05 Sep23 Sep09 Aug05 Jul19 (watkins m)MCKEE J 120 5.00 71% 0.40    
SCR  MONKEY ZONE Oct20 Sep23 Sep14 Aug12 Jul19 (curtsing)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 114 15.00    
DOG RED Aug19 Jul19 Jun18 May28 Apr26 (o'dwyer jer)LEPAROUX R 121 2.50    
MR. PETERKIN Sep15 Aug20 May27 Apr23 Apr01 (norris mike)CANUTO THIAGO 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
CARMICHAEL Oct12 Sep15 Aug04 Jun01 May11 (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 2.00    
 
CD-4   11/02/2023 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 2:30
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TALE OF LA BEE         (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00    
BRIGHT LADY DAY Oct06         (jackson christop)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
TEMPTING LADY Sep27 Aug30 Aug03     (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 27% 2.80    
CRAZY CAMI Oct06 Aug31 Aug13 Jul19   (maker mich)SANTANA JR 119 2.00 28% 2.60    
MIDNIGHT ANGEL (GER) Oct19 Oct04 Sep18 Sep07 Aug08 (torres ale)LEZCANO ABEL 119 15.00    
MARGARET'S LADY Sep20 Aug23 Aug02     (west w)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
MODAROSA         (mott riley)GEROUX FLORENT 119 10.00    
SILVERY MOON Oct06         (corrigan jim)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
SHE'S A SHOPPER Jul22         (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
10  MIXER Oct12         (catalano way)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 3.00 24% 3.10    
 
CD-5   11/02/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GUNNER BAY Sep16 Aug03 Jul07 Jun04   (margolis stephen)ELLIOTT JANE 118 15.00    
POWER ALLEY Sep24 Aug30 Jul30 Jul01 May03 (forster t)CASTANON L 118 10.00    
SUPREMELY Aug26 Jul31 Jun29 Jun10 May19 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.50 23% 3.40    
FAN THE FIRE Oct07         (brion keri)SANTANA JR 120 4.00    
MASTER OF ARMS Oct07 Mar10 Feb17 Sep24 Jul08 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 120 3.50 41% 1.40    
WHAT A BLAST Oct09 Aug04 Jul05 Feb24 Jan20 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00    
RIVOLI Sep21 Aug19 Jun20 May03 Apr14 (west ethan )HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
SOUND DOCTRINE Oct13 Sep14 Jul28 Jun24 May25 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 118 15.00    
BALSA Oct10 Sep14 Aug10 Oct27 Sep01 (contreras c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
 
CD-6   11/02/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PINE KNOLL Sep07 Jul20 Jul07 Jun15 Mar16 (medina robe)TORRES A 121 10.00    
NATIVE THUNDER Sep23 May27 May04 Mar25 Mar09 (stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 15.00    
ENGLISH TAVERN Sep14 Mar25 Feb18 Jan21 Dec26 (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.00 25% 3.00    
TARTUFO Sep07 Jul08 Jun04 May25 Mar30 (vaccarezza car)TORRES A 121 12.00    
CHANCEUX Sep10 Aug05 Jul04 May29 Apr23 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 121 6.00    
ALEX JOON Aug12 Jul15 Apr23 Mar26 Nov18 (schultz lin)LEPAROUX R 121 4.50 16% 5.40    
FRANZ JOSEF Oct18 Sep18 Aug21 Jul25 Jul03 (wismer glenn)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00 9% 10.30    
FAIR DINKUM Sep07 Aug05 Jan29 Dec16 Nov02 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 29% 2.40    
FEBRUARY SON Sep01 Aug12 Jul11 Jun20 May29 (granitz anthony )CASTANON L 121 12.00    
SCR  TIWANAKU Jul23 Jun10 May11 Mar26 Nov02 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.00    
 
CD-7   11/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 4:01
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JUST A COED         (calhoun william)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00    
LEMON MUFFIN Oct06         (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
FIGGY         (arnold geor)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
SPEIGHTER WOMAN         (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
CRUISE MISSILE Aug19 Jun16       (diodoro rob)TORRES A 119 4.50 38% 1.60    
MOENCHANTED         (peitz c)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
CANDY LOVER Oct05 Aug20 Jul23 Jun23   (devaux cherie)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 23% 3.30    
UNION MIST         (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
QUIMICHIS         (gutierrez fausti)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
10  IN JUST MY HEELS         (moquett ron)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00    
11  MINK'S PALACE         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 16% 5.40    
12  BERNAR MOSA         (maker j)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
SCR  SILVER ROSE Sep27         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50    
SCR  VIABLE         (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
SCR  FREEBURN         (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 10.00    
SCR  PLAGNE CHAMPAGNE Oct06 Sep16       (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
 
CD-8   11/02/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:33
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
J J'S JOKER Oct06 Aug19 Feb18 Jan21 Dec10 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
ANTARES Oct08 Aug30 Jul22 Jun06 Sep01 (morey e)FELIX E 118 4.00 12% 7.60    
MONEY SUPPLY Sep27 Aug26 Aug20 Apr01 Jan14 (sharp joe)TORRES A 121 5.00 36% 1.80    
SCR  HIGGINSON Oct22 Sep18       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 6.00    
HUNTSVILLE Oct12 Apr15 Mar04     (contreras cip)QUINONEZ ALONSO 118 15.00    
ARRO SMASH Sep24 Aug26 Jul30 Jul02   (bauer philip)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00    
CAN'T HUSH THIS Oct08 Sep14 Aug13 Jul21 Jun29 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 12.00    
ABADIN Sep28 Aug19 Jul21 Jun11 May06 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 16% 5.20    
BANISHING Feb18 Dec26 Nov13     (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 15% 5.80    
 
CD-9   11/02/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EL ORIENTE (CHI) Jul08 Jun11 May06     (walsh brend)TORRES A 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
NO ONE TO BLAME Oct06 Sep01 Aug12 Jun25   (trombetta mi)CORRALES GERARDO 121 4.00 27% 2.80    
FREEDOM'S WAY Feb12 Jan08 Jun20 May15 Apr16 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00    
MARQUET MALICE Oct06 Jul08 Apr22 Mar08 Nov30 (douaihy michel)AYALA ISAIAS 121 50.00    
SCRIPT Oct06 Apr13 Feb05 Jan08 Dec03 (motion gr)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 3.50    
CHANTRY FLATS Mar30 Mar10 Feb04 Jan20 Jan01 (newton troy)FELIX E 121 6.00 44% 1.30    
PLAY ACTION PASS Oct13 Aug31 Aug05 Jul01 Jun01 (medina robert)GEROUX FLORENT 121 3.00    
WHISPER NOT (GB) Aug31 Aug19 Jul20 May25 May05 (maker mich)SANTANA JR 121 6.00    
MICROPHONE (IRE) May19 Apr27 Mar02 Feb03 Oct21 (west w)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
10  COWBOY JUSTICE (GB) Oct11 Sep19 Sep14 Aug02 Jul28 (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 121 15.00    
SCR  SEARCH ENGINE Oct20 Aug12 May25 Feb28 Feb11 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 2.50    
 
CD-10   11/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 5:35
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SETEMFREE         (corrigan ji)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  REMEMBER THE FEAR Aug27 Aug06       (catalano m)ASHTON GAVIN 119 4.00    
STUNNEM Oct11 Sep14 Aug26     (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 25% 3.00    
DIFFERENT FLAME Sep29         (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
CAMILAS WARRIOR Oct20         (chavez)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 30.00    
HEAVY HITTER         (blair jordan)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
SUMMER IN AIKEN Oct01 Sep10       (sharp joe)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00    
CHARLIE ZULU         (simms jr)NAVAS YOEL 112 30.00    
MASTER OF DISGUISE Sep13 Aug09 Jul12 Jun22   (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.50 7% 12.60    
10  BARREL THIEF Oct03         (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 12.00    
11  CAPO Aug09         (rivelli larr)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 44% 1.30    
SCR  MR BIG STUFF (GB)         (puhich mike)ELLIOTT JANE 119 15.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.