Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 30, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/6/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/7/5)-(2/6/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/7/5)-(2/6/7/5)-(2/6/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/7/5)-(11/3/9/4/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/6/7/5)-(11/3/9/4/12)-(5/4/9) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-2   WIN (11/3/9/4/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/3/9/4/12)-(11/3/9/4/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/3/9/4/12)-(11/3/9/4/12)-(11/3/9/4/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/3/9/4/12)-(5/4/9) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (11/3/9/4/12)-(5/4/9)-(11/10/2/3/8) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-3   WIN (5/4/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/9)-(5/4/9/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/9)-(5/4/9/2/7)-(5/4/9/2/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (5/4/9)-(11/10/2/3/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/4/9)-(11/10/2/3/8)-(5/13/3/10/8) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-4   WIN (11/10/2/3/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/10/2/3/8)-(11/10/2/3/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/10/2/3/8)-(11/10/2/3/8)-(11/10/2/3/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/10/2/3/8)-(5/13/3/10/8) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (11/10/2/3/8)-(5/13/3/10/8)-(12/10/3/7/9) 125 $1.00 $125 
CD-5   WIN (5/13/3/10/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/13/3/10/8)-(5/13/3/10/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/13/3/10/8)-(5/13/3/10/8)-(5/13/3/10/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/13/3/10/8)-(12/10/3/7/9) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (5/13/3/10/8)-(12/10/3/7/9)-(7/5/2) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-6   WIN (12/10/3/7/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/10/3/7/9)-(12/10/3/7/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (12/10/3/7/9)-(12/10/3/7/9)-(12/10/3/7/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (12/10/3/7/9)-(7/5/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (12/10/3/7/9)-(7/5/2)-(9/7/2) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-7   WIN (7/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/5/2)-(7/5/9/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (7/5/2)-(7/5/9/2)-(7/5/9/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (7/5/2)-(9/7/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
CD-8   WIN (9/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/7/2)-(9/7/8/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (9/7/2)-(9/7/8/2)-(9/7/8/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/30/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ANYTIME ANYWHERE         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of QUALITY LASS by CUTLASS)
2  PREDECESSOR May01         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 65% 0.50    
  (by TAPIT out of TOBAGO by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
SCR  MISSILE CRUISER         (brinkerho)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of BATTLE GIRL by BATTLE CRY)
4  MALEVAJE Apr25         (seglin e)RIQUELME J 119 15.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of REGAL SONG by NOBLE MISSION (GB))
5  FLYIN PRIVATE         (brinkerhoff)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of ALL IN WITH ACES by QUIET AMERICAN)
6  I GOT GAME         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 7% 13.40    
  (by GAME WINNER out of BABY NINA by FLATTER)
7  POLITICALLYCORRECT         (davis christop)ORTIZ L 119 5.00 7% 13.40    
  (by VIOLENCE out of HERON WATCH by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
SCR  THE TONER May09 Apr25       (caramori )TORRES A 119 3.50    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of ULTIMATE SHOPPER by YES IT'S TRUE)
9  SERGEANT CAPPS May09 Apr26 Apr10     (capps a)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of PRIVATE ESTATE by PRIVATE TALK)
 
CD-2   05/30/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAPWRIT WARRIOR May02 Mar15 Jan13 Dec30 Nov24 (vasquez germ)BARBOSA CARLOS 113 30.00    
SCR  MOON FLEET May04 Apr17 Feb14 Jan17   (o'neill doug)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.00    
3  BAINBRIDGE DANCER Nov18         (puhich mike)ELLIOTT JANE 124 8.00 32% 2.10    
4  MAYLEN May02 Apr11 Mar08 Feb16 Jan26 (leonard i)BEJARANO R 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  JOIA RARA May12 Mar20 Feb29 Feb14 Jun10 (caramori edu)TORRES A 118 20.00    
6  ELLIOTT MOON May10 Mar30 Feb22 Oct04   (kerrick lacy)CASTANON L 118 30.00    
7  LADLE May02 Jan24 Dec30 Nov23 Nov01 (miller jerome )CHUAN MARTIN 118 20.00    
8  PEPPERS GIRLFRIEND Apr28 Mar29 Feb24 Jan12 Dec09 (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
9  PERCEPTIVE May03 Apr07 Mar03 Feb16 Feb03 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 124 4.50 10% 9.30    
10  CHIQUITA REINA May02 Feb14 Jan27 Jan10 Dec16 (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
11  DEFAULT May12 Mar30 Mar06 Feb18 Feb01 (vaccarezza car)ORTIZ L 124 3.50 33% 2.00    
12  DICE ARM May10 Apr14 Jan07 Jul01 Jun08 (barnett bob)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-3   05/30/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIRD KING May12 Apr20 Mar30 Feb17 Dec09 (londono genevi)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00    
2  PHANTOM RIDE May05 Apr12 Mar09 Feb16 Jan28 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 5.00 ★    
3  ROMAN CENTURIAN Apr12 Mar21 Mar01 Feb09 Jan06 (shorter a)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
4  MASTER GAME May01 Mar29 Mar09 Feb12 Dec30 (forster t)GRAHAM J 118 3.50 12% 7.20    
5  SOGNO DI CAMPIONE (CHI) Apr21 Mar21 Feb29 Feb03 Dec21 (sweezey kent)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.50 61% 0.60    
6  OUTLIER May12 Apr26 Apr12 Mar28 Mar17 (cash norm)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
7  MAN IN THE CAN May04 Apr14 Mar22 Mar09 Feb09 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 ★    
8  COMMON BOND May13 Apr19 Mar30 Feb17 Jan25 (wittek karyn)ACHARD ALEX 118 15.00    
9  TIWANAKU Apr25 Dec10 Nov11 Jul23 Jun10 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-4   05/30/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THANKS FRANK May10 Apr28 Mar21 Mar02 Aug05 (vanden be)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00    
2  PATRIARCHAL Apr30 Apr17 Mar16 Feb13 Jan12 (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50 9% 10.50    
3  HALLELUJAH HARRIS Aug05 Jun30       (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 118 8.00 8% 12.20    
SCR  BROTHER RICE May10 Mar15 Feb15 Jan18   (pino mich)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00    
5  COWBOY LUKE Apr24 Oct07 Aug10     (quartarolo )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 20.00    
6  REMEMBER THE FEAR Aug27 Aug06       (catalano way)TORRES A 118 6.00    
7  ON TAP Apr24         (sims phili)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 15.00    
8  WHOLEHEARTEDLY May11         (williamson)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BAULE DEL TESORO         (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 124 10.00    
10  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN May11 Mar03 Feb10 Nov09 Jun16 (barnett bobb)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 4.00 18% 4.70    
11  CHULLIGAN May11 Oct16 Sep04 Jun23 Oct07 (beckman wh)GEROUX FLORENT 124 3.50 39% 1.60    
 
CD-5   05/30/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRAZEN BOY May09 Dec29 Jun25 May19 Mar25 (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 6.00    
2  MOREAU Apr26 Nov30 Oct22 Aug29 Jun30 (mckeever an)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 6.00    
3  B SUDD May12 Apr12 Feb23 Feb03 Jan05 (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 12.00 13% 6.70    
SCR  MIDNIGHT STORMY May09 Apr27 Apr07 Mar08 Feb02 (minnock wayne)CANNON DECLAN 118 30.00    
5  EPIC BATTLE May09 Oct29 Sep15 Aug09   (drury thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 29% 2.50    
6  ICEATUDE May09 Apr12 Jun17 May18 Apr14 (navarrete )LOVEBERRY JARETH 123 12.00    
SCR  A LA CARTE May04 Mar15 Feb23 Jan05 Dec17 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 4.00    
8  CHRYSO ALOGO May12 Apr27 Apr12 Sep22 Aug27 (vasquez s)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
9  ONE RED CENT May09 Apr20 Nov25 Nov15 Oct20 (jazdzewski)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
10  FUNNY UNCLE May12 Apr21 Mar23 Mar08 Feb04 (vance d)LANERIE J 123 12.00 9% 9.90    
11  VERACRUZIN May11 Apr20 Nov08 Oct28 Sep24 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
12  FURIOUS ANGER Mar16 Jan14 Nov17 Oct21 Sep23 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 123 8.00    
13  PINFIRE Jan12 Dec09 Nov04 Sep14 Jan21 (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 123 6.00 20% 4.10    
SCR  EXTRA HALO Dec20 Nov18 Oct03 Aug19   (granitz anth)TORRES A 118 10.00    
 
CD-6   05/30/2024 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CANDY BAR Apr20 Mar21 Feb10 Jan13 Dec14 (calhoun wil)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 10.00    
2  WINGS LIKE EAGLES Nov23 Nov04 Jun11 May07 Apr16 (mott riley)ACHARD ALEX 124 10.00    
3  SHE'S ON THE ROCKS Mar21 Feb15 Jul07 Jun11 Apr16 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 124 6.00 9% 10.60    
4  CECILE (IRE) Aug13 Jul22 Jun24 May13 Feb11 (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 124 6.00    
5  OUR DOTSIE Mar03 Jan31 Nov29 Oct18 Sep10 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 124 15.00    
6  KILLSHAVE BEAUTY Apr27 Oct11       (mckeever an)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 10.00    
7  DREAMING OF MO Apr27 Mar23 Feb22 Nov16 Oct19 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 124 5.00 5% 17.80    
8  WORK OF FICTION Apr20 Jan13 Nov04 Aug31 Aug05 (arnold ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 15.00    
9  PRIVATE CREDIT Oct12 Sep13 Aug05 Nov27 Sep02 (reed r)BEJARANO R 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
10  COCO CRUSH Apr21         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 126 8.00 28% 2.60    
11  EMPIRICAL VIEW Oct18 Sep02 Aug04 Jul09   (divito j)SANTANA JR 124 8.00    
12  MIRARI Apr04 Jan28 Oct26     (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 124 4.00 32% 2.10    
SCR  CATMINT May11 Apr14 Mar07 Feb15 Oct14 (hiles rick)LANERIE J 124 20.00    
SCR  ESME May11 Mar30 Mar13 Feb23 Feb08 (king l)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 30.00    
SCR  HIDDEN CLASS May25 Dec22 Oct29 Sep13 Aug31 (sharp joe)ROSARIO JOEL 118 15.00    
SCR  CONDONE Apr24 Apr07 Feb14 Nov15 Oct18 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 124 5.00    
SCR  STUNNINGLY May01 Aug18 Jul20 Jun23 Apr07 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 1.20    
 
CD-7   05/30/2024 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EYEING CLOVER Apr25 Mar14 Jul08 May29 Apr01 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 12.00    
2  SAFFA'S DAY Apr21 Apr05 Mar03 Jan07 Jul29 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  CALL ME FAST May03 Apr06 Aug25 Jul08 Jun03 (puhich mike)ROSARIO JOEL 121 4.00    
SCR  OSCAR ECLIPSE May04 Mar30 Sep23 Aug13 Jul09 (lynch a)ORTIZ L 121 12.00    
5  RAISE CAIN May04 Apr06 Dec26 Oct21 Sep24 (colebrook ben)SAEZ LUIS 121 6.00 24% 3.10    
6  TRACK MATE May04 Apr05 Feb23 Jan06 Oct08 (lukas wayne)BEJARANO R 123 5.00    
7  EXTRA ANEJO Jul22 Jun10 May06 Oct13   (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 37% 1.70    
SCR  CONFIDENCE GAME May11 Jan20 Dec23 Nov04 Oct21 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 121 15.00    
9  SCOTLAND May02 Sep23 Aug26 Jul21 Jun03 (mott william )ORTIZ JR 121 5.00 ★    
SCR  DREAMING OF KONA Mar30 Mar01 Jan27 Dec23 Nov11 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 121 20.00    
 
CD-8   05/30/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3 F PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MILA JUNES May09 Mar15 Jan27 Dec29 Dec13 (van tho)BARBOSA CARLOS 115 10.00    
2  KRICKLE May09 Jan26 Dec29 Dec08 Nov08 (holsapple)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  SEVEN NATTY PATTY May04 Apr14 Oct14 Sep22 Sep02 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00    
4  PLEASESTOPTALKING May14 Apr17 Mar30     (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 122 15.00    
SCR  SACRED SAINT Feb04 Jan13 Jan01 Nov18   (scherer ma)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 30.00    
6  BETTE DAVIS May09 Apr05 Mar13 Feb10 Jan25 (tomlinson michael)SAEZ LUIS 120 12.00    
7  THORNY Apr26 Mar29 Mar02 Dec21 Nov24 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00 31% 2.20    
8  BEAUTY N THE BOLT Apr27 Mar06 Feb07 Jan03   (delima e)CEDILLO ABEL 120 3.50 ★    
9  LOW COUNTRY MAGIC Apr17         (correas ignaci)ORTIZ L 120 3.00 42% 1.40    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.