Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Saturday - December 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (5/1/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/2/6)-(5/1/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/2/6)-(5/1/2/6)-(5/1/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1/2/6)-(2/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/1/2/6)-(2/4/6)-(4/2) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-2   WIN (2/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/6)-(2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/6)-(4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/4/6)-(4/2)-(8/9/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-3   WIN (4/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/2)-(4/2/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (4/2)-(4/2/3)-(4/2/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (4/2)-(8/9/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/2)-(8/9/1)-(8/1/4/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-4   WIN (8/9/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/9/1)-(8/9/1/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/9/1)-(8/9/1/7)-(8/9/1/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/9/1)-(8/1/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/9/1)-(8/1/4/7)-(1/4/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-5   WIN (8/1/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/1/4/7)-(8/1/4/7/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/1/4/7)-(8/1/4/7/9)-(8/1/4/7/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (8/1/4/7)-(1/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/1/4/7)-(1/4/5)-(8/4/3/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-6   WIN (1/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/5)-(1/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4/5)-(1/4/5)-(1/4/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/4/5)-(8/4/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/4/5)-(8/4/3/1)-(8/2/1/4/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
AQU-7   WIN (8/4/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/4/3/1)-(8/4/3/1/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/4/3/1)-(8/4/3/1/5)-(8/4/3/1/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (8/4/3/1)-(8/2/1/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/4/3/1)-(8/2/1/4/5)-(1/11/9/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
AQU-8   WIN (8/2/1/4/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/2/1/4/5)-(8/2/1/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/2/1/4/5)-(8/2/1/4/5)-(8/2/1/4/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/2/1/4/5)-(1/11/9/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
AQU-9   WIN (1/11/9/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/11/9/3)-(1/11/9/3/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/11/9/3)-(1/11/9/3/8)-(1/11/9/3/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   12/30/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($85K) 2 F PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REGULATORY RISK Oct25 Sep16       (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 119 1.80 33% 2.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of WALKWITHAPURPOSE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
1A  MATURITY DATE Oct01 Aug18       (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 119 1.80    
  (by UPSTART out of SING LADY SING by SCAT DADDY)
2  BACKSTRETCH ROSE Nov03 Sep28 Aug31 Aug06 Jul09 (mcpeek kenn)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 3.50 12% 7.60    
  (by ARMY MULE out of CHOLENA by INDIAN CHARLIE)
3  CELESTIAL EXPRESS Nov03 Oct14       (contessa c)DAVIS KATIE 119 20.00    
  (by TAPWRIT out of BLUE ANGEL EXPRESS by MARCIANO)
4  WYNNING TOUCH Dec01 Oct14       (dutrow richard)LEZCANO JOSE 119 5.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of WYNNING RIDE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
5  VALUE AREA Nov19 Oct21 Sep17 Aug06   (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 119 3.00 35% 1.80    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of HER SMILE by INCLUDE)
6  PATRICIA ANN         (martin c)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ENTICED out of SOOTHER by RAHY)
7  GREATEST GIFT         (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 119 10.00    
  (by CURLIN out of LIL INDY by BUCKLEY BOY)
 
AQU-2   12/30/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 MUDDY Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($80K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLLOQUY Dec03 Nov04 Oct04 Jul28 Jul03 (morley tho)RIVERA R 118 4.00    
2  BOURBON CHASE Nov18 Oct20 Sep17 Aug18 Jul21 (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 122 2.00 33% 2.00    
3  LOBSTA Dec03 Oct29 Sep20 Aug13 Jul24 (sells rachel)HARKIE K 125 8.00    
4  UN OJO Dec03 Oct29 Oct06 Sep10 Aug02 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 121 3.00 19% 4.40    
5  CALLALOO Dec03 Oct15 Oct01 Sep04 Mar24 (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 4.50    
6  ZEEBEAR Dec07 Oct29 Sep28 Sep21 Aug05 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 123 5.00 15% 5.70    
 
AQU-3   12/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 MUDDY Gravesend Purse ($150K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STAGE LEFT Dec23 Dec08 Nov18 Oct27 Sep16 (jacobson davi)SILVERA RUBEN 124 8.00    
  (by CONGRATS out of DIVA DELITE by REPENT)
2  ROTKNEE Nov24 Oct29 Sep15 Aug11 Jun09 (maker michael )LEZCANO JOSE 124 3.50 21% 3.70    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of IN SPITE OF MAMA by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
3  GREELEY AND BEN Dec23 Dec02 Nov10 Nov26 Nov10 (de horacio)DAVIS DYLAN 124 4.50 ★    
  (by GREELEY'S CONQUEST out of TRACI'S WILD by LANGFUHR)
4  BOLD JOURNEY Nov24 Oct12 Aug26 Jul29 Jun09 (mott i)CANCEL ERIC 126 1.60 27% 2.80    
  (by HARD SPUN out of POLLY FREEZE by SUPER SAVER)
5  DURANTE Nov24 Oct27 Oct14 Sep16 Aug19 (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 126 1.80    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of SEAHAWK GIRL by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
 
AQU-4   12/30/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($36K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SASSY TALLAHASSEE Dec15 Nov21 Nov08 Oct25 Sep27 (sells rache)PAREDES JHOVANY 117 20.00 12% 7.30    
2  STRANGE FRUIT Nov26 Oct26 Sep15 Aug24 Aug10 (reynolds patric)RUIZ ELISEO 117 15.00    
SCR  BOMB SQUAD Nov05 Jul29 Jun17 Jun01 Apr15 (clement chris)FRANCO MANUEL 122 2.50    
4  PUREST PERFORMANCE Nov25 Nov05 Oct15 Jun24 May18 (pregm)HERNANDEZ OMAR 122 12.00    
SCR  TERESA Dec08 Oct12 Aug10     (barrera s)DAVIS DYLAN 122 3.50    
6  BELLA ISOLA Nov25         (lugovich l)DAVIS KATIE 122 15.00    
7  FIRST CLASS CAT Dec08         (kimmel)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 6.00 ★    
8  MISS FASHIONISTA Nov17 Dec16 Nov18 Oct01   (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 122 3.00 49% 1.00    
9  FOLLOW THE FED Nov25 Nov10 Oct06 Sep03 Aug04 (rodriguez )RIVERA R 117 8.00 18% 4.60    
 
AQU-5   12/30/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($39K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHATEAU Nov18 Oct14 Jul30 Jul12 Jul02 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 120 4.50    
1A  BUSTIN SHOUT Nov30 Nov12 Nov03 Sep16 Aug23 (rodriguez r)KOCAKAYA GOKHAN 122 4.50 19% 4.30    
2  PRINCE JAMES Nov26 Nov11 Sep16 Jul22 Jun24 (handal raymond)DAVIS KATIE 122 8.00    
3  RYAN'S CAT Dec07 Oct14 Apr01 Mar19 Feb18 (rodriguez gu)HARKIE K 120 15.00    
4  POGI Nov18 Nov03 Sep04 Aug27 Aug12 (rice linda)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.00 18% 4.60    
5  RALLY SQUIRREL Nov11 Oct21 Sep03 Aug18 Jun15 (goberdhan chand)RUIZ ELISEO 117 30.00    
6  FLAMINGO HAWK Nov25 Nov03 Oct04 Sep16 Aug19 (dutrow richard)LUZZI J 120 5.00    
7  BRAZILLIONAIRE Nov30 Sep13 Aug02 Jul01 May30 (englehart jer)OLVER MADISON 115 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  MISTER J T Dec09 Nov12 Oct22 Sep28 Sep13 (potts wayne)DAVIS DYLAN 122 3.50 39% 1.60    
9  DONTBELATE Dec09 Dec01 Oct21 Oct12 Aug05 (persaud ra)RIVERA R 117 10.00 ★    
10  MAGICAL WAYS Nov09 Oct21 Oct15 Aug10 Jul03 (sells rachel)CANCEL ERIC 122 10.00    
 
AQU-6   12/30/2023 5940ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($90K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OVERSTEP Dec02 Feb19 Jan26     (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 123 1.80 40% 1.50    
2  AMERICAN LAW Dec02 Nov09 Oct06 Sep16 Sep01 (brown br)GOMEZ ANTONIO 121 8.00    
3  SUERTE Nov30 Nov05 Oct06 Aug26 Aug10 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.00    
4  LEADING CONTENDER Nov30 Oct22 Sep03 Jul22 Aug13 (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 123 2.00 28% 2.60    
5  NAPA VALLEY (BRZ) Oct25 Oct15 Oct02 Sep15 Aug25 (ginter raymond )RUIZ ELISEO 118 20.00 7% 12.40    
SCR  JUST CALL RAY Dec16 Nov19 Nov04 Oct22 Sep21 (potts wayne)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 8.00    
7  HOLD THE SALSA Dec17 Nov18 Oct19 Sep16 Jun24 (lugovich l)RIVERA R 116 15.00    
 
AQU-7   12/30/2023 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  DUCKPHAT Dec08 Nov03 Aug18 Jul26 Jul03 (davis robbie )SILVERA RUBEN 120 6.00 6% 15.30    
SCR  RED PEPPER GRILL Dec14 Nov03 Oct14 Sep09 Jul22 (davis g)DAVIS KATIE 122 6.00    
2  MOULY Nov25 Oct12 Sep03 Oct08 Sep24 (duggan dav)RIVERA R 117 8.00    
3  IRISH JACKSON Nov30 Apr30       (noda orlando)CANCEL ERIC 122 8.00 14% 6.00    
4  ROMAN GODDESS Dec14 Oct26 Oct07 Sep14 Jul08 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 2.50 17% 5.10    
5  BELLA PRINCIPESSA Dec08 Nov18 Oct26 May18 May12 (klesar)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 12.00 ★    
6  VAX Oct26 Sep24 Aug25 Jul02 May20 (barrera )DAVIS A 120 10.00    
7  MY GIRL JAL Dec14 Nov18 Nov03 Sep14 Aug31 (legall ric)GREENIDGE ELIJAH 113 15.00    
8  CHASING DAYLIGHT Dec08 Nov16 Oct05 Aug11 Jun23 (rodriguez rudy )DAVIS DYLAN 122 3.00 33% 2.00    
9  LA GROTTE Nov09 Oct06 Mar17 Feb19 Jan15 (morley thom)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 6.00    
 
AQU-8   12/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FORTUNE'S NEPHEW Nov16 Dec15 May14     (levine bruce)CARMOUCHE K 122 4.50 10% 8.70    
2  THE INSTITUTE Nov22 Nov08 Oct17 Sep19 Sep04 (de hora)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 5.00 28% 2.50    
3  BEACH BOY AL Nov21 Nov08 Sep20 Sep04 Aug14 (englehart jerem)DAVIS DYLAN 122 15.00    
4  TRA LAD Nov22 Nov01 Oct17 Sep25 Aug29 (o'callahan )SALGADO ANTHONY 122 10.00 8% 11.00    
5  KAZ SUGAR BANK Dec07 Nov08 Aug10 Jul12 Jun01 (synnefias dimi)TORRES JOMAR 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  SHARPAZ Dec07 Nov10 Jun25 May29 Dec08 (duggan)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 15.00    
7  AGILITY Jul15 May29 Apr22 Mar24 Feb05 (abreu fernand)FRANCO MANUEL 120 4.00    
8  ICY FLAVOR Dec01 Nov11 Oct20 Sep01 Nov20 (kimmel joh)RIVERA R 115 3.00 31% 2.20    
9  BOURBON'S HOPE Dec07 Nov26 Nov03 Oct22 Sep28 (jones eduard)HARKIE K 120 30.00    
10  PRINCE OF TRUTH Dec01 Oct28 Sep04 Aug17   (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 6.00    
 
AQU-9   12/30/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NEWPORT BRIDGE Oct15 Sep04 Aug26 Jun09 May05 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.00 60% 0.70    
2  BARGAINING POWER Dec16 Dec03 Oct05 Aug17 Oct09 (miceli michael)DAVIS DYLAN 122 12.00    
3  THREE ZERO Nov16 Oct14 Sep16 Sep02 Jul27 (david carlos )OLVER MADISON 113 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  BURN JAKEY BURN Dec01 Nov16 Nov02 Aug17 Jul08 (brown bruce)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 12.00    
SCR  RED D G P Nov24 Jul15 Jul03 Jun04 May11 (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 122 3.50    
6  COLLECT FROM IKE Dec16 Dec03 Nov12 Oct22 Sep04 (pregman john )SILVERA RUBEN 120 12.00    
7  SHORTSINTHEWINTER Nov24 Oct16 Sep18 Aug21 Jul24 (hennig mark)CANCEL ERIC 120 20.00    
8  BLUE PLATE SPECIAL Dec09 Nov24 Nov02 Oct14 Sep22 (toscano )GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 10.00 ★    
9  GUN MAESTRO Dec17 Nov17 Oct21 Sep01 Aug18 (ferraro ja)RIVERA R 117 8.00 5% 19.00    
10  DOCTOR JERRY Nov22 Oct16 Oct02 Sep04   (barrow paul)LUZZI J 120 20.00    
11  BAYOU SPIRIT Dec16 Oct27 Aug11 Jul14 May27 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 5.00 11% 7.80    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.