Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Sunday - April 14, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (6/10/1/8/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/10/1/8/4)-(6/10/1/8/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/10/1/8/4)-(6/10/1/8/4)-(6/10/1/8/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/10/1/8/4)-(1/9/2/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/10/1/8/4)-(1/9/2/8)-(10/1/11) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-2   WIN (1/9/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/9/2/8)-(1/9/2/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/9/2/8)-(1/9/2/8)-(1/9/2/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/9/2/8)-(10/1/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/9/2/8)-(10/1/11)-(3/4/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
KEE-3   WIN (10/1/11) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/1/11)-(10/1/11/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/1/11)-(10/1/11/6/4)-(10/1/11/6/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (10/1/11)-(3/4/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (10/1/11)-(3/4/7)-(5/8/7/2/3) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
KEE-4   WIN (3/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/7)-(3/4/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/7)-(3/4/7)-(3/4/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/4/7)-(5/8/7/2/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/4/7)-(5/8/7/2/3)-(3/8/9) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
KEE-5   WIN (5/8/7/2/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/8/7/2/3)-(5/8/7/2/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
KEE-6   WIN (3/8/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/8/9)-(3/8/9/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/8/9)-(3/8/9/1)-(3/8/9/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/8/9)-(12/10/5/4/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/8/9)-(12/10/5/4/8)-(3/6/2/8) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-7   WIN (12/10/5/4/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/10/5/4/8)-(12/10/5/4/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (12/10/5/4/8)-(12/10/5/4/8)-(12/10/5/4/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (12/10/5/4/8)-(3/6/2/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (12/10/5/4/8)-(3/6/2/8)-(1/7/8/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
KEE-8   WIN (3/6/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/2/8)-(3/6/2/5/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/6/2/8)-(3/6/2/5/8)-(3/6/2/5/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/6/2/8)-(1/7/8/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
KEE-9   WIN (1/7/8/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/8/5)-(1/7/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/8/5)-(1/7/8/5)-(1/7/8/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   04/14/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($43K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FASTA LAVISTA BABY Mar08 Feb13 Jan18 Dec21 Nov15 (scherer maria)GARCIA MARTIN 118 4.00 6% 16.40    
2  CAUSE IMA ROSE Feb24 Feb03 Jan13 Dec14 Oct24 (guida ant)CORREA L 125 20.00    
3  SOUL HEIR Mar27 Mar06 Feb15 Jan25 Dec14 (grubbs jamie)TERRAZA GERMAN 120 15.00    
4  TROTTER         (sweezey k)HARGROVE CAMILE 108 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  WINDY WALK Feb08 Jan03 Nov16 Oct19   (davis christop)ORTIZ L 118 8.00    
6  LA PICASITA Mar01 Feb03 Dec28 Nov12 Sep16 (antonucci j)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.00 34% 1.90    
7  E STORMY Mar29 Feb11 Jan07 Dec16   (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 6.00    
SCR  HOLD MY CROWN Mar22 Aug10 May29 May09 Mar15 (nocero carmin)LEBRON VICTOR 125 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  MISS GOLDEN PENNY Feb24 Jan27       (west m)MORALES EDGAR 125 6.00    
10  DELIGHTED (IRE) Mar01 Feb08 Dec27     (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00 27% 2.70    
 
KEE-2   04/14/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  QUINCY RIDER Mar08 Jan31       (thomas jonat)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 60% 0.70    
2  FORGE IN FIRE Feb21 Jun01 Apr20 Mar17   (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BEAUMONT RED Feb22 Jan25 Jan05 Dec15 Nov22 (desormeaux kei)RIQUELME J 124 2.50    
4  MERLOTTI Nov18 Nov04 Sep09 Aug17 Jul27 (wainwright john)MCKEE J 124 20.00    
5  CRUISIN AND BOOZIN Mar08 Jan31 Dec21 Nov11 Oct14 (jarvis kat)CORRALES GERARDO 118 30.00    
6  TIME MUSE Feb10 Jan18 Dec01 Sep03 Aug06 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00    
SCR  MORE THAN FIVE Mar10 Feb02 Dec29 Oct29 Sep01 (garcia genaro)SANJUR SANTO 124 6.00    
8  REDHILL Mar13 Mar01 Feb10 Jan12 Nov29 (pittman bonn)CALLEJA ANDRES 117 15.00 5% 19.00    
9  TRUST DADDY Jan12 Nov18 Oct26 Jun23 May19 (murphy conor)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 4.00 11% 7.80    
 
KEE-3   04/14/2024 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3 ALL PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAMEO PERFORMANCE         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 30% 2.40    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of LA MONEDA by FREUD)
2  PED D'ORO Mar06         (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 120 12.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of MELODIC by REBMEC)
3  CINDER BLOCK         (motion graham)RUIZ JORGE 120 15.00    
  (by BLAME out of ZUCCHINI FLOWER by FLOWER ALLEY)
4  ENHANCED SCAT Feb16 Jan26       (matejka pavel)MACHADO LUAN 120 20.00 ★    
  (by JUSTIFY out of HEAVENLY TAP by TAPIT)
5  GARDEN LEAVE         (mcgaughey claude )SAEZ LUIS 120 8.00    
  (by CURLIN out of ON LEAVE by WAR FRONT)
6  SPIN IT         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 120 5.00 ★    
  (by HARD SPUN out of TRY YOUR LUCK by TELLA FIB)
7  ACTING DEBUT         (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 12.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of MISS CHAPIN by ROYAL ACADEMY)
8  SALB Mar23         (mckeever an)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 15.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of AUSUS by INVASOR (ARG))
9  INDY CHARGE Mar15 Jan31       (medina robert)ROSARIO JOEL 120 20.00    
  (by TAKE CHARGE INDY out of AWESOME CLASS by AWESOME AGAIN)
10  GREEN LIGHT Mar23         (brisset rodolp)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 4.00 46% 1.20    
  (by HARD SPUN out of ELECTRIC by SMART STRIKE)
11  RADICAL MISCHIEF Mar06 Feb08       (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
12  VILLAIN Mar08         (schultz linds)MORALES EDGAR 120 15.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of HONOR YOUR GIFT by SIGHTSEEING)
SCR  SAN MARTIN         (sancal mura)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 15.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of STOPTALKINGMARIA by WHYWHYWHY)
SCR  JOHN THE BEER MAN Jan28         (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 3.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of TROPHY WIFE by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  SARDIS Feb25 Jan28 Nov17     (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 120 12.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ENDLESS CHAT by BERNARDINI)
SCR  CULPRIT Jul23 Jun22       (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 120 4.50    
  (by JUSTIFY out of HENNY JENNEY by HENNY HUGHES)
 
KEE-4   04/14/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($43K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LITE IT UP LOUIE Feb16 Jan12 Dec08 Nov03 Oct15 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 1.20    
2  AMERICAN MAESTRA Feb29 Jun25 Apr15     (gallaghe)RODRIGUEZ A 125 20.00    
3  GRACE GIVEN Mar08 Feb11 Aug13 Jul22 Jun30 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 2.00 58% 0.70    
4  DICE ARM Jan07 Jul01 Jun08 Jun23   (barnett c)GRAHAM J 125 12.00 17% 5.00    
5  SHE'S A SAINT Feb22 Dec30 Nov29 Oct11 Sep09 (dunn stephe)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 30.00    
SCR  KAZILLION Mar10 Feb18 Jan06 Dec21 Jun03 (brinkman bre)BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 6.00    
7  ALWAYS DREAM BIG Mar16 Feb24 Feb15 Jan25 Jan04 (brownfield cl)JIMENEZ ALBIN 125 20.00 5% 19.00    
8  SARISSA Feb15 Jan04       (sandy s)HESS SARA 118 20.00    
SCR  ANOINTED OF GOD Jan18 Dec11       (douaihy mich)MONCADA IRVING 108 30.00    
SCR  PRETTY LILY Mar27 Feb29       (orantes r)NAVAS YOEL 120 30.00    
 
KEE-5   04/14/2024 7920ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($120K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIX MINUS Mar02 Jan28 Dec24 Nov12 Sep04 (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50    
2  WHO TOOK THE MONEY Mar02 Feb12 Dec09 Nov18 Oct06 (calhoun wi)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  DAI VERNON Feb17 Nov17 Sep24 Jul16 Jun22 (mott i)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  CLASSIC CREATION Feb17 Jan06 Nov18 Oct19 Jun25 (thomas jonathan)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
5  HEADLINE NEWS Mar02 Jan27 Dec09 Oct26 Jul07 (toner j)ORTIZ L 118 1.80 39% 1.60    
6  TARTUFO Mar07 Jan26 Dec21 Nov25 Nov02 (vaccarezza )ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 20.00    
7  UTAH BEACH Feb28 Jan25 Nov29 Nov08 Aug31 (correas ignaci)ROSARIO JOEL 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  HIDDEN STASH Feb16 Jun17 May19 Apr13 Feb12 (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 118 4.00 32% 2.20    
9  MUTAKATIF (IRE) Mar30 Feb28 Jan31 Jan05 Nov07 (brown pau)HERNANDEZ J 118 30.00    
10  WOW WHATA SUMMER Feb17 Dec23 Nov17 Nov05 Oct19 (lawrence james)CONNER TYLER 118 20.00    
11  VERBAL Mar16 Jan06 Dec07 Aug19 Jun22 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00    
 
KEE-6   04/14/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($64K) 3 ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MR. FAVERSHAM Mar20 Mar02 Feb15 Jan06 Nov25 (lyster stephen)MACHADO LUAN 120 4.50 ★    
2  MONTEVALLO Mar22 Feb15 Jan05     (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 118 15.00    
3  BLOWN COVER Feb24 Jan07 Nov23 Oct25   (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 118 1.80 50% 1.00    
SCR  J BIRD TIME Mar08 Feb10 Jan18 Dec15 Nov12 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00    
5  STINGY Feb10 Dec29 Dec01 Oct25   (lobo h)JIMENEZ ALBIN 118 20.00    
SCR  PAPA YO Mar20 Jan25 Jan06     (davis christop)CEDILLO ABEL 118 20.00    
7  DR BAYTER Mar06 Feb23 Feb02 Nov18 Aug12 (d'angelo jose)ORTIZ JR 118 8.00    
8  J T'S IMAGINATION Mar01 Feb09 Dec29 Dec01 Nov05 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 25% 3.10    
9  YO DADDY Mar02 Feb09 Jan12 Dec22 Dec01 (desormeaux ke)LANERIE J 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
KEE-7   04/14/2024 5940ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($110K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOSS LADY BAILEY Mar03 Jan27 Jun02 May05 Apr07 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
2  LADY EMILY KATHRYN Feb24 Jan20 Dec17 Oct26 Oct01 (joseph saff)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 20.00    
3  IMPLOSION Mar03 Jan31 Dec31 Nov26 May27 (giddings mel)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 30.00    
4  HIGH STICK Jul02 Jun10 May14 Aug18 Jul06 (mcgaughey clau)ORTIZ L 118 4.50 14% 6.40    
5  TEXAS SHUFFLE Mar09 Jan31 Dec02 Oct29 Apr13 (toner j)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 15% 5.80    
6  CATMINT Mar07 Feb15 Oct14 Sep17 Jul31 (hiles rick)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
7  ZIPADOO Jan27 Dec23 Nov12 Oct14 Aug25 (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 118 8.00    
8  GET YOUR KICKS Sep15 May13 Apr01 Feb12   (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  LUCKY ANA Mar09 Feb24 Jan24 Jan03 Dec13 (douaihy miche)CANUTO THIAGO 118 50.00    
10  LAST CALL (ARG) Oct27         (thomas jonatha)ROSARIO JOEL 118 6.00 23% 3.30    
SCR  BIG BRASS BED Mar03 Jan27 Jul23 Jun22 May13 (walsh brendan )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 10.00    
12  NOTINAMILLIONYEARS (IRE) Nov12 Oct12 Aug17     (brown c)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00 26% 2.90    
SCR  RIGHT NOW Mar27 Jun19 May24 Mar25 Mar02 (girten tim)CEDILLO ABEL 118 30.00    
 
KEE-8   04/14/2024 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($61K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NAVY SOUL Nov30 Oct08 Sep19 Aug27 Jul21 (pittman bonn)CALLEJA ANDRES 111 20.00    
2  LUNAR MODULE Feb01 Jan04 Dec16 Oct06 Sep05 (camejo m)ORTIZ JR 118 10.00 6% 16.90    
3  MAC DADDY TOO Mar24 Mar02 Feb03 Dec29 Oct21 (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 63% 0.60    
4  SOLIDIFY Mar22 Feb28 Feb10 Jan13 Dec02 (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 6.00    
5  PURE PANIC Feb28 Feb10 Dec02 Nov09 Oct18 (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 ★    
6  DOWNTOWNCHALYBROWN Mar02 Jan18 Dec08 Nov17 Oct25 (synnefias pana)CONNER TYLER 118 4.00 7% 13.30    
7  CHAMBERS BAY Mar30 Mar07 Feb22 Feb08 Jan11 (guerrero sal)TERRAZA GERMAN 113 30.00    
8  VOODOO ZIP Mar22 Mar07 Dec15 Nov17 Oct06 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
9  GUNNER BAY Mar22 Feb25 Feb03 Jan04 Dec07 (margolis stephen)RIQUELME J 120 20.00    
 
KEE-9   04/14/2024 7920ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($120K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OHANA HONOR Mar02 Dec23 Oct06 Sep09 Aug03 (mcgaughey clau)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.00 56% 0.80    
SCR  CALYCANTHUS Mar02 Dec14 Jun10 Apr08 Feb11 (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 118 6.00    
SCR  ENGLISH CHALLENGE Mar30 Mar21 Mar07 Feb09 Jan26 (estvanko richa)MACHADO LUAN 118 30.00    
4  HIGH TIDE Mar10 Feb08 Jan11 Nov17 Oct06 (atras rob)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.50    
5  WIND TWIST Mar07 Dec16 Nov10 Oct07 Apr19 (sandy st)RODRIGUEZ A 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
6  REGAL KINGDOM Mar02 Dec09 Sep30 Aug31 Jul15 (motion graham)RUIZ JORGE 118 12.00    
7  FOREIGN RELATIONS Oct14 Sep09 Jul22 Jun17 May20 (murphy con)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 16% 5.10    
8  BEUYS (IRE) Mar16 Dec30 Oct06 Sep07 Aug05 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
9  FIRST STRIKE Mar01 Feb02 Apr15 Feb11 Dec16 (lobo h)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00    
SCR  KING CURLIN Jan01 Nov05 Oct12 Sep03 Aug18 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 120 15.00    
11  HE'S GOT SWAGGER Sep28 Sep07 Aug13 Jul16 May20 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
SCR  KEROUAC Nov19 Oct29 Sep16 Aug24 Jul09 (thomas jonatha)ORTIZ L 118 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.