Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - September 22, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (4/3/11/6/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/3/11/6/10)-(4/3/11/6/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/3/11/6/10)-(4/3/11/6/10)-(4/3/11/6/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/3/11/6/10)-(2/4/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/3/11/6/10)-(2/4/1)-(3/5/4/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-2   WIN (2/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/1)-(2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/1)-(3/5/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/4/1)-(3/5/4/6)-(6/9/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-3   WIN (3/5/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/5/4/6)-(3/5/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/5/4/6)-(3/5/4/6)-(3/5/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/5/4/6)-(6/9/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/5/4/6)-(6/9/4)-(4/8/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-4   WIN (6/9/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/9/4)-(6/9/4/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/9/4)-(6/9/4/8)-(6/9/4/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/9/4)-(4/8/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/9/4)-(4/8/1)-(6/5/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-5   WIN (4/8/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/8/1)-(4/8/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/8/1)-(4/8/1)-(4/8/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/8/1)-(6/5/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/8/1)-(6/5/1)-(4/1/5/10) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (6/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/1)-(6/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/1)-(6/5/1)-(6/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/1)-(4/1/5/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/5/1)-(4/1/5/10)-(9/7/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/1/5/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/1/5/10)-(4/1/5/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/1/5/10)-(4/1/5/10)-(4/1/5/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/1/5/10)-(9/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/1/5/10)-(9/7/5)-(5/1/9/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-8   WIN (9/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/7/5)-(9/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/7/5)-(9/7/5)-(9/7/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (9/7/5)-(5/1/9/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (9/7/5)-(5/1/9/3)-(6/4/8/3/10) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-9   WIN (5/1/9/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/9/3)-(5/1/9/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/9/3)-(5/1/9/3)-(5/1/9/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1/9/3)-(6/4/8/3/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-10   WIN (6/4/8/3/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/4/8/3/10)-(6/4/8/3/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/4/8/3/10)-(6/4/8/3/10)-(6/4/8/3/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOTS OF MISCHIEF Jul14 Jun01 Sep01     (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 12.00    
2  MR. COMMANDER Aug21 Jul21 Jul01 Jun15 May21 (king barry)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 15.00    
3  GUCCI BOY Jul30 Jul09 Jun15 Apr08 Feb24 (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.50 18% 4.50    
4  TRIPLE OPTION Nov09 Sep29 Sep13 Aug21 Jul31 (cook b)BEJARANO R 124 6.00 21% 3.80    
SCR  TIMETOMAKEMISCHIEF Aug26 Aug01 Jul07 Jun11 Apr29 (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 10.00    
6  OWN THE FIELD Jul22 Jun10 May13 Nov23 Aug31 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 4.50 15% 5.50    
7  SECESSION         (drury thoma)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 15.00    
8  MO MOVES Sep10 Aug28 Aug06 May18 Mar23 (medina robert)MACHADO LUAN 121 20.00    
9  BLUFF CITY Aug10 Sep15 Aug12 Jul16 Jun23 (catalano wayn)CANNON DECLAN 121 6.00    
10  BOURBON FEVER Jul14 Jun25 Jun01     (casse no)SANTANA JR 121 8.00 6% 17.10    
11  GILDED CRAKEN Aug28 Jul30 May14 Apr22   (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 5.00 17% 4.80    
 
CD-2   09/22/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOLIDIFY Sep07 Jul22 Jun23 Jun10 May13 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 114 2.00 16% 5.20    
2  BLUE KENTUCKY Jun10 May13 Apr20 Feb17 Jan18 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 121 1.80 28% 2.60    
3  CLASSY SOCKS Jun25 Jun04 Mar23 Mar05 Feb25 (vance d)LANERIE J 121 10.00    
4  BOURBON SPIRIT Aug26 Aug06 Jul13 Oct12 Aug27 (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 120 2.50 28% 2.60    
5  SOARING BIRD Sep07 Jul21 Jun23 Jun10 May13 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00    
6  HEMP HEAVEN Aug02 Feb09 Dec31 Nov27 Jun29 (wittek karyn)COURT K 121 12.00    
 
CD-3   09/22/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ONE COOL DUDE Aug17 Jul14 Dec30 Nov25 Oct19 (blair jord)MICHEL MICKAELLE 121 15.00    
SCR  SCHMOOZIN Aug19 May19 Apr21 Feb21 Jan15 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 8.00    
3  CAMP DADDY Aug19 Jul31 Jun25 May27 May21 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 2.00 49% 1.10    
4  STONEVICIOUS Aug06 May19 May11 Apr08 Mar18 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 121 6.00 7% 14.30    
5  ALMANZO Apr09 Jan14 Oct14 Sep13 Jul03 (castillo richa)CHUAN MARTIN 121 5.00 18% 4.60    
6  RUN RUN RAPIDASH Jul27 Jun15 May04 Mar10 Feb10 (kordenbroc)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  ASPEN CLUB Jun17 May26 Apr15 Mar23 Feb11 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 121 10.00    
8  ROMAN GIANT Aug15 Aug03 Jul13 Jun15 May19 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 3.00    
 
CD-4   09/22/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($63K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RIVETAGE Sep02         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50    
2  QUENCIO         (gutierre)SANTANA JR 119 15.00    
3  RUNNIN MUNNIN         (stall alber)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00    
4  THIS TIME BLUE         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  HIGH ENOUGH         (desormeaux ke)COHEN DAVID 119 20.00    
6  FLOTATION STATION Aug20 Jul23       (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 2.50 50% 1.00    
SCR  BIRCHTON         (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00    
8  QUERREQUE         (gutierrez )CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 ★    
9  CHRYSO ALOGO Aug27         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 20% 4.00    
SCR  BURGUNDY ROYALE Aug27 Jul21       (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 6.00    
11  MIDCAT         (wilkes r)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
 
CD-5   09/22/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLDEN BUCK         (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of GHOST GALAXY by GHOSTZAPPER)
2  TOP GUN ROCKET         (mott riley)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 5.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ROCKET TWENTYONE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
SCR  BLUE LINE         (asmussen )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of TAKECHARGEDELILAH by TAKE CHARGE INDY)
4  MUAZARAH Aug27         (pletcher a)BEJARANO R 119 4.00 57% 0.80    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of MUNASARA by BERNARDINI)
5  LAT LONG         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of AMEN SISTA by STREET CRY)
SCR  WARHEADED         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 8.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of CATCH THE MAGIC by ANIMAL KINGDOM)
7  GOULD'S GOLD         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of GOOSE MARTINI by BERNARDINI)
8  INFORMED PATRIOT Aug12         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 16% 5.30    
  (by HARD SPUN out of YAWKEY WAY by GRAND SLAM)
9  MASMAK         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.50    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of NITE IN ROME by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
 
CD-6   09/22/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SELINA KYLE (PER) Aug16 Apr30       (correas ignaci)MACHADO LUAN 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  JAG WARRIOR Aug06 Jun11 May05 Feb19 Jan28 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 122 12.00    
3  MUSIC STREET Aug11 May27 May05 Nov20 Oct23 (beckman whi)CANNON DECLAN 122 8.00    
4  SKRATCH KAT Jul23 Jul16 Jun03 Nov25 Oct21 (bauer phil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00    
5  ICE ORCHID Aug13 Jul07 Mar12 Feb04 Jan07 (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 122 2.00 23% 3.40    
6  CHOP CHOP Mar11 Feb18 Jan21 Nov04 Oct07 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.60 50% 1.00    
 
CD-7   09/22/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OTTO THE CONQUEROR Aug13         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 3.00 24% 3.10    
  (by STREET SENSE out of DREAM IT IS by SHACKLEFORD)
SCR  MILITARY CRUISER         (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of VASILISA by SKIPSHOT)
3  NUEVO EMPIRE         (medina rob)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of CLEVERLY by TAPIT)
4  TIME SONG Aug27         (pletcher todd)CANNON DECLAN 119 4.50 35% 1.80    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of NEW SONG by EASTOVER COURT)
5  DRAGOON GUARD         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 20% 4.10    
  (by ARROGATE out of FILIMBI by MIZZEN MAST)
6  SWEET AS SIN         (asmussen )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of GIANT MOVER by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
7  TITLE CONTENDER         (cox brad)SANTANA JR 119 5.00    
  (by TAPIT out of INDIA'S SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
8  BOURBON'S FAULT         (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by BLAME out of MOON MEDAL by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
9  STORMIN LOVE Aug27         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by IRONICUS out of LOVEALERT by THE FACTOR)
10  J BIRD TIME         (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of RUNAWAY RENEE by MUNNINGS)
 
CD-8   09/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  STUD LOVIN Aug22 Jul30 May28 May06 Sep08 (maker michae)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00    
2  KING ME Jul22 Jun18 Sep30     (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
SCR  MULLIKIN Jul30 Jul02 May27 Apr08 Feb18 (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
SCR  FAVORITE OUTLAW Aug05 Jun23 Apr29 Apr01 Mar05 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 5.00    
5  BOHEMIAN BO Jun25 May28 May06 Apr08 Mar12 (vance thomas)TORRES A 113 12.00 6% 15.60    
6  TIM TAL May03 Apr13 Mar11 Feb11 Jan14 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00    
7  TRACK MATE Aug19 Sep15 Aug27 Aug06   (lukas wayne)LANERIE J 120 5.00 9% 10.10    
8  GILCREASE Jun03 May13 Apr08 Feb25 Aug07 (stall alb)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00    
9  EASY ACTION Jul29 Apr14 Mar23 Feb18 Jan28 (casse no)SANTANA JR 118 3.00 61% 0.60    
 
CD-9   09/22/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALL I WANT IS YOU Aug18 Jul21 Apr23     (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 117 3.50 22% 3.60    
2  ARABIAN PRINCE Sep13 Jul23 Jun23 May19 Apr26 (barnett bob)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 8.00    
3  CUSTOM BOBBY'S Aug11 Jul15 Jun16 Nov24 Sep03 (calhoun willi)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  PAT'SCHROMECOMPASS Aug26 Aug01 May03 Apr12   (o'connor robert)LANERIE J 115 20.00    
5  HIDEKI Jul16 Jun15 Apr20 Mar30 Mar09 (walsh d)BEJARANO R 118 2.50 41% 1.40    
6  KIGALI Aug30 Jul16 Jun24 May04 Mar25 (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 118 5.00    
7  OVERBORE Sep02 Aug05 Jul09 Jun17 Apr28 (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 121 5.00    
8  SUMMER IN MALIBU Aug26 Aug03 Apr15 Apr01 Mar05 (combs bentle)TORRES A 116 20.00    
9  B D VALESKI Aug11 Jun23 May19 Apr21 Mar30 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 6.00 12% 7.20    
 
CD-10   09/22/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PERCEPTIVE Jun02         (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 120 12.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of HONE IN by SMART STRIKE)
2  MISINTENTION Sep23 Sep04 Jul31     (mott i)GRAHAM J 120 10.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of CROWNED by BERNARDINI)
3  LEAFLET Aug08         (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 120 8.00 5% 18.10    
  (by BLAME out of LONG LEAF by PROUD CITIZEN)
4  HAPPY CHARGER Aug01         (pessin l)LANERIE J 120 5.00 19% 4.40    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of HAPPY WEEK by DISTORTED HUMOR)
5  MUCHO MACHO CHICK Sep03         (toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 120 20.00    
  (by MUCHO MACHO MAN out of IVANKA by FARMA WAY)
6  METHODOLOGY Aug04 Jun24 Jun03     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 2.50 40% 1.50    
  (by UNCLE MO out of INNOVATIVE IDEA by BERNARDINI)
7  NOCTURNE COURT         (wilkes r)BEJARANO R 120 12.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of HEART D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
8  SISTER MAHA Aug17 Jul20       (pletcher t)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 11% 8.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of SPIRIT OF THE DAWN by MALIBU MOON)
9  WILD ACCLAIM Aug18 Jan18 Dec21     (hamilton sara)CANNON DECLAN 120 10.00    
  (by FLATTER out of PRODICIOUS FACTS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
10  MUSICAL MISCHIEF Aug01 May05       (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 115 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SOPHIA'S SONG by BELLAMY ROAD)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.