Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Thursday - October 17, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (3/1/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/4/6)-(3/1/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/4/6)-(3/1/4/6)-(3/1/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/1/4/6)-(1/11/5/4/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/1/4/6)-(1/11/5/4/9)-(3/5/6/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
KEE-2   WIN (1/11/5/4/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/11/5/4/9)-(1/11/5/4/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/11/5/4/9)-(1/11/5/4/9)-(1/11/5/4/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/11/5/4/9)-(3/5/6/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/11/5/4/9)-(3/5/6/4)-(3/7/10/2/5) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-3   WIN (3/5/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/5/6/4)-(3/5/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/5/6/4)-(3/5/6/4)-(3/5/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/5/6/4)-(3/7/10/2/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/5/6/4)-(3/7/10/2/5)-(11/3/9/1/5) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-4   WIN (3/7/10/2/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/7/10/2/5)-(3/7/10/2/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
KEE-5   WIN (11/3/9/1/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/3/9/1/5)-(11/3/9/1/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/3/9/1/5)-(11/3/9/1/5)-(11/3/9/1/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/3/9/1/5)-(6/4/2/1/9) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (11/3/9/1/5)-(6/4/2/1/9)-(9/1/2/5/3) 125 $1.00 $125 
KEE-6   WIN (6/4/2/1/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/4/2/1/9)-(6/4/2/1/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/4/2/1/9)-(6/4/2/1/9)-(6/4/2/1/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/4/2/1/9)-(9/1/2/5/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (6/4/2/1/9)-(9/1/2/5/3)-(12/4/3/8/1) 125 $1.00 $125 
KEE-7   WIN (9/1/2/5/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/1/2/5/3)-(9/1/2/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/1/2/5/3)-(9/1/2/5/3)-(9/1/2/5/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/1/2/5/3)-(12/4/3/8/1) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (9/1/2/5/3)-(12/4/3/8/1)-(5/8/4/12/9) 125 $1.00 $125 
KEE-8   WIN (12/4/3/8/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/4/3/8/1)-(12/4/3/8/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (12/4/3/8/1)-(12/4/3/8/1)-(12/4/3/8/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (12/4/3/8/1)-(5/8/4/12/9) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
KEE-9   WIN (5/8/4/12/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/8/4/12/9)-(5/8/4/12/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/8/4/12/9)-(5/8/4/12/9)-(5/8/4/12/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   10/17/2024 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($63K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BLAKE JAMES Sep20 Jul27       (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 3.50 20% 4.10    
2  STASHU Sep11 Aug24 Jul22     (wainwrigh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 8.00    
3  BOSTONTONIAN Sep23 Jun22       (ward wesl)DETTORI LANFRANCO 122 0.80 44% 1.20    
4  COUNTTHEBRAVE Sep25         (correas ignaci)ORTIZ L 120 5.00 14% 6.00    
5  GARDINER Sep12 Aug11       (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 120 8.00    
6  PURSE THIEF Aug29 Jul22 Jun19 May26   (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  DBOOK Jul14 Jun14       (ortiz alexan)SAEZ LUIS 120 15.00    
 
KEE-2   10/17/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLONIAL ROSE Sep04 Nov24 Oct11 Aug26 Jul23 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 1.40 58% 0.70    
2  ELODINE Sep19 Aug25 Jul25 Jun30 Jun12 (lopez elia)CORRALES GERARDO 120 20.00    
3  SO FAR SO GOOD Sep13 Aug08 Jul05 Jun12   (moge)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 120 12.00    
4  PLAY MAKER Sep13 Jul28 Jul04 Jun02   (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  VIBE CHECK Sep27 Aug25 Jul27 Jun16 May19 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00 6% 15.20    
6  AMERICAN SPLENDOR Sep13 Aug05 Jul22 Jul07 Jun16 (cambray andres)ROMAN A 120 30.00    
7  OUR PRAYER Sep13 Apr19 Mar29 Feb10   (radosevic)HERNANDEZ J 120 20.00    
8  CAT'S SYMPHONY Sep06 Aug17 Jul11 Jun04 May04 (oliver vict)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 20.00    
9  TIZ SALTY Sep19 Aug26 Jul27 Jun26   (thompson micha)MACHADO LUAN 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  REAL QUEEN Sep21 Sep06 Aug19 Jul29 Jul09 (cristel m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 20.00    
11  POLITICAL SPIN Sep13 Aug18 Jul13     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.00 8% 11.10    
 
KEE-3   10/17/2024 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($55K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HIGH FASHION KATE Sep20 Aug19 Jul29 Jul06 Jun08 (minnock g)GRAHAM J 120 4.50    
2  BIRDIE ROSE Sep29 Sep08 Jul31 Jul22 Jun27 (salas marceli)MORALES EDGAR 121 15.00    
3  WAILUA Sep25 Jul19 Jun08 Feb08   (joseph saffie )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 1.20 43% 1.30    
4  RIBBONSINHERHAIR Oct02 Sep12 Jun16 Apr19 Jan12 (robertson mcle)ORTIZ L 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  LIL GIN N CLASS Sep25 Jul31 Jul06 Jun12 May01 (eggleston tim)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 36% 1.80    
6  CANDY CRAZE Sep20 Aug17 Jul21 Jun05 May24 (kordenbrock matt)BEJARANO R 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  OPPOSITE THE CROWD Aug15 Jul16 Jun25 May25 Apr28 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 8.00    
8  MISS PEABODY Sep19 Jul22 Jun15 Sep13 Aug05 (newton tro)CORRALES GERARDO 123 12.00    
9  IDALOU Sep18 Aug17 Jun21 Jun02 Feb25 (schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
 
KEE-4   10/17/2024 5610ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($130K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  QUALITY STAR Aug26 Jun20 May19 Apr20 Dec07 (lobo paulo)HERNANDEZ J 124 6.00    
2  LUCKY SPEECH Aug29 Jul27 Jun15 May17 Apr05 (sharp joe)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  JUSTIFIABLE BELLE Sep11 May19 Apr07 Aug19 Jun22 (wilkes r)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 57% 0.70    
4  LUCY'S CAKES FLY Dec15 Nov11 Oct15 Aug31 Aug19 (molloy thoma)TORRES A 122 50.00    
5  INSENSITIVE Aug05 Mar07 Feb11 Dec29 Oct28 (anderson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  BOLIVIE (IRE) Sep05 Aug04 Jul06 May29 Nov01 (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 122 12.00    
7  NANDA DEA (ARG)         (correas ignaci)ORTIZ L 122 4.50 5% 17.70    
8  VALENTINA DAY Sep11 Jul22 Jun13 Apr21 Mar08 (toye kara )CORRALES GERARDO 122 30.00    
SCR  FOR FLYING (BRZ) Sep14 Aug17 Jun27     (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 122 6.00    
10  SELENAIA (IRE) May18 Apr04 Sep03 Aug04 Jun10 (thomas jonath)ORTIZ JR 122 4.00 5% 19.00    
11  JOIN THE DANCE Sep11 Jul06 Jun13 May03 Mar23 (stewart d)DETTORI LANFRANCO 122 15.00    
 
KEE-5   10/17/2024 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HASTEN Sep21 Aug17       (simms mark )CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of ON MY TOES by MORE THAN READY)
2  SUCCESSFUL UNION Sep18         (harty eoin)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 15.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of SWEET SUCCESS by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
3  UNCLE JIM         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 24% 3.10    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of NOW NOW by DARBY CREEK LANCE)
4  MASTER CONTROLLER Sep01         (vanden britt)EMIGH A 119 20.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of KEY IS TO WIN by DIXIE UNION)
5  COPP Sep12         (mccarthy michael )SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BLAME out of SIERRA OLIVIA by PULPIT)
6  KING OF ASHES         (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of CAUSEFORCOMMOTION by AMERICAIN)
SCR  IRON SHARPENS IRON         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of DANALAKE by FRIENDS LAKE)
8  MATH TUTOR Sep14 Aug03       (antonucci je)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
  (by ALGORITHMS out of COMARE by STREET BOSS)
9  SPEECHLESS Sep21 Aug24       (brisset rodolp)ORTIZ L 119 4.50 10% 9.40    
  (by STREET SENSE out of OH MY by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
10  ARTHUR JR         (leitch daniel)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of PARADE OF ROSES by NEW YEAR'S DAY)
11  COCKTAILSNKRINGLE Sep19 Aug24       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 3.50 42% 1.40    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of CASUAL COCKTAIL by MAGNA GRADUATE)
12  CARCAR EXPRESS Sep12         (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 119 20.00    
  (by CARACARO out of FOXBEAU by BLUEGRASS CAT)
 
KEE-6   10/17/2024 3630ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PORTOFINO Sep07 Jul07 May24 Mar28 Jan28 (orseno jose)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  B D VALESKI Sep11 Aug11 Jun22 May25 Apr05 (foley greg)ORTIZ JR 121 4.00 7% 13.70    
SCR  THE CONNECTOR Oct02 Sep11 Aug23 Jul15 Jul03 (hoffman mark)BAYS BROOKE 114 20.00    
4  DOUBLE CLUTCH Sep11 Aug03 Jun30 May31 Apr21 (arnold george )ORTIZ L 121 3.50 15% 5.70    
5  WILD WEST JUSTICE Aug29 Jul19 Jul03 May11 Aug05 (caramori )LEPAROUX R 120 20.00    
6  LINZER Aug31 Jul14 Jun16 Apr16 Mar06 (sharp joe)DETTORI LANFRANCO 120 3.00 44% 1.30    
SCR  FINSTER Sep18 Aug05 Aug08     (harty eoin)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 6.00    
8  CRUZIN MAN Sep07 Aug11 Feb24 Jan20 Dec30 (crichton rohan)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00    
9  GILDED RULER Feb25 Jan04 Dec07 Oct26 Jul15 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  RUNNIN' ROCKET Aug11 Jul14 Jun13 May01 Mar23 (lynch a)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
 
KEE-7   10/17/2024 5940ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($110K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHILLED Sep05 Jul27 Jun22 Jun01 May03 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 26% 2.90    
2  PEIGNOIR Sep20 Aug05 Jul05 Nov10 Oct15 (brisset rodolp)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.50 13% 6.70    
3  CRUSHED ICE Aug31 Jul28 Jul11 Jun20 May17 (quartarolo )GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  PRETTY PROVOCATIVE Sep27 Aug22 Jun08 Nov12 Sep10 (miller darrin)MACHADO LUAN 122 10.00    
5  LET'S DUET Sep27 Jun26 Mar30 Mar10 Feb11 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 122 12.00 7% 12.60    
SCR  GIDGET ROSE LEE Sep24 Sep03 Jul04 Jun06   (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 120 30.00    
7  ARIJANA'S PEARL Oct03 Aug31 Aug07 Jul18 Mar23 (robertson)TORRES A 118 20.00    
8  FORESEEN Aug10 Jun15 Apr27 Apr17 Feb18 (arnold ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
9  UNION MIST Sep14 Jun28 Jun01 May03 Mar23 (walsh brendan)ORTIZ JR 120 3.00 33% 2.00    
10  MIDSUMMER MARCH Sep20 Sep05 Apr25 Mar23 Feb24 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
 
KEE-8   10/17/2024 5610ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($130K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEQUILERA Aug29 Jul06 Jun08 May18 Dec30 (matz mich)LEPAROUX R 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  HEAVENLY APPOINTED Sep11 May25 Apr21 Feb25 Jan21 (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 122 12.00    
3  MOHAWK TRAIL Mar24 Mar02 Sep02 Jul22 Jun25 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 6.00 10% 8.60    
4  SAFFRON MOON Nov23 Oct07 Aug17 Dec24 Apr27 (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 3.00 16% 5.10    
5  BLISSFUL Aug14 Jul13 May18 Apr21 Mar21 (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 122 10.00    
6  SAMAY (PER) Sep08 Aug07 Jul31 Jul21 Jul17 (arias alfonso)CHUAN MARTIN 122 20.00    
7  ELOUNDA QUEEN (IRE) Sep21 Aug16 Jul06 May26 Dec26 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 8.00    
8  WATCH THIS BIRDIE Sep11 Aug14 Apr21 Mar23 Feb17 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 10.00 8% 11.30    
9  BALI BELLE Jul06 May12 Feb24 Jan13 Dec09 (arnold ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 30.00    
10  TOWHEAD Sep18 Jul28 Jun20 May10 Apr14 (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 124 20.00    
11  AUSSIE GIRL (IRE) Aug31         (walden willia)ORTIZ JR 122 5.00    
12  SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY Sep05 Aug04 Jul07 Jun02 Oct27 (shirer matt)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 4.50 40% 1.50    
 
KEE-9   10/17/2024 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIS CHARMING Sep12 Feb18 Oct22 Oct01   (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 20.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of DERBY EVE by TIZNOW)
2  NEON BORDEAUX         (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 120 15.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of STELLARIS by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
3  TENNESSEE LAMB Sep29 Aug25 Jun30 Oct14 Sep13 (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00    
  (by TONALIST out of TENNESSEE WHISKEY by PERSIAN TURBAN (IRE))
4  BEDARD Sep10 Jul19 Jun23 Oct08 Aug20 (attard kevin)ORTIZ L 120 6.00 13% 6.80    
  (by NYQUIST out of REASON by QUIET AMERICAN)
5  DUKE OF DUVAL Sep15 Aug24 Jul07 Mar15   (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 120 4.50 20% 4.10    
  (by ARROGATE out of CHAOTIC CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
6  KNOW WHO YOU ARE Aug24 Oct07 Aug27     (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 120 15.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of BIRDY NUM by TAPIT)
7  GREER'S GOLD Sep08 Aug24       (mott i)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 10.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of GREER LYNN by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
8  RAFAROO Aug23 Jul20 Jun15     (ladauceur ha)TORRES A 120 8.00 17% 4.80    
  (by HARD SPUN out of LIGHT GREEN by PLEASANTLY PERFECT)
9  GENERAL ISSUE (FR) Nov30 Nov09       (cook brian)MOJICA O 120 30.00 8% 11.20    
  (by HARD SPUN out of MY GI GI by E DUBAI)
10  CAN'T STOP WILLIS Sep15 Aug24       (milligan )TORRES A 120 20.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of INDELIBLE by TIZNOW)
11  HANGIN IN THERE Sep20 Aug10 Jun22 Apr27 Mar30 (orseno jos)CORRALES GERARDO 120 15.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of PRETTY EXTRAVAGANT by WITH DISTINCTION)
12  BOURBON SOCIETY Sep15 Aug03 Jul14 Jun23 Apr06 (wilkes ia)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 4.00 12% 7.10    
  (by BERNARDINI out of GIGGLIN' GAL by CONSOLIDATOR)
SCR  CALLER Aug29 Sep04 Aug07     (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 120 15.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of GLAMOUR MANOR by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.