Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Mahoning Valley
Wednesday - December 13, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

MVR-1   WIN (1/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/6)-(1/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/6)-(1/2/6)-(1/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/6)-(2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/2/6)-(2/5)-(9/4/5/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
MVR-2   WIN (2/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/5)-(2/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (2/5)-(9/4/5/8) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/5)-(9/4/5/8)-(3/6/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
MVR-3   WIN (9/4/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/4/5/8)-(9/4/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/4/5/8)-(9/4/5/8)-(9/4/5/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/4/5/8)-(3/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (9/4/5/8)-(3/6/1)-(4/7/9/6/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
MVR-4   WIN (3/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/1)-(3/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/1)-(3/6/1)-(3/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/1)-(4/7/9/6/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/6/1)-(4/7/9/6/3)-(6/5/8/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
MVR-5   WIN (4/7/9/6/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/7/9/6/3)-(4/7/9/6/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/7/9/6/3)-(4/7/9/6/3)-(4/7/9/6/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/7/9/6/3)-(6/5/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/7/9/6/3)-(6/5/8/9)-(6/1/5/3) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
MVR-6   WIN (6/5/8/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/5/8/9)-(6/5/8/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/5/8/9)-(6/5/8/9)-(6/5/8/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/5/8/9)-(6/1/5/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/5/8/9)-(6/1/5/3)-(10/7/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
MVR-7   WIN (6/1/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/5/3)-(6/1/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/5/3)-(6/1/5/3)-(6/1/5/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/1/5/3)-(10/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
MVR-8   WIN (10/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/7/1)-(10/7/6/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (10/7/1)-(10/7/6/1)-(10/7/6/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
MVR-1   12/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($19.5K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NO MAS CERVEZA Nov22         (smith larry)BRACHO A 125 3.50 47% 1.10    
LEWIS AND CLARK Sep09 Jul05 Jun01 Apr25 Apr13 (wilson jr)VIGIL NOEL 126 2.50 16% 5.20    
PAYMASTER GENERAL Nov27 Sep29 Aug09 Jul22 Jul05 (barker )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 125 4.50    
FORMYBOYS Nov22 Oct24 Oct05 Sep14   (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 125 3.00    
R CLIFFHANGER Nov22 Oct24 Oct06 Sep29   (melancon pa)BRACHO AUGUSTIN 126 6.00    
CAN'T CRASHMYPARTY Nov27 Sep21 Aug31 Aug10 Jul19 (tumblin )FERNANDEZ R 126 5.00 9% 10.50    
 
MVR-2   12/13/2023 3630ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($5K) Purse ($17.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CUGINE Nov29 Oct24 Oct04 Sep12 Aug17 (casalinova tin)HOUGHTON D 126 6.00    
LIMIT UP Nov20 Sep06 Aug26 Aug10 Jul12 (andrade hugo)HALDAR J 126 2.50 44% 1.30    
SCR  MON CAMO Oct23 Oct06 Sep18 Aug30 Jul26 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 124 3.50    
THE COOKIE MAN Dec06 Nov12 Oct10 Sep27 Sep07 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 124 15.00    
ELLE'SBIGSEACRET Dec01 Nov02 Oct20 Aug05 Jul05 (ginter raymon)BRACHO A 126 1.80 26% 2.80    
SCR  KOSCIUSZKO Oct31 Oct21 Sep26 Sep14 Aug30 (brown )BATISTA ALBERTO 124 10.00    
CHACO SPIRIT Jun05 May08 Apr12 Mar22 Feb20 (wolochuk dav)KEISER CHELSEY 124 8.00    
 
MVR-3   12/13/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($24.3K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BROADWAY CHARM Nov15 Aug24 Mar05     (cook brian)REYES FRANK 125 3.50    
  (by STREET SENSE out of DEJA BLU by SEEKING THE GOLD)
ISLANDINTHESTREAM Nov04 May20 Mar08     (langley joshu)CEDILLO MAURO 125 4.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of COLORFUL CHARADES by DISCREET CAT)
QUICKSTYLE Aug11 Jun30 Jun04 May14 Apr20 (gallow)BATISTA ALBERTO 125 10.00    
  (by LEA out of SIMPLISTIC by ANDROMEDA'S HERO)
ECHOLITE Oct30 Sep14 Oct26 Oct01   (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 126 5.00 24% 3.20    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of TAPALITE by TAPIT)
SHEWEARSMYRING Nov13 Oct31 Oct05 Sep13 Aug23 (da)SALAZAR FERNANDO 125 6.00 18% 4.70    
  (by OVERANALYZE out of HAPPYBIRTHDAYBABY by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
LADY CAIRO Nov29 Nov15 Oct25 Sep21   (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 126 12.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of POSITIVELY ROYAL by BERNARDINI)
TRAMA QUEEN Nov29 Oct05 Sep13 Aug07 Jun26 (skerrett jef)HALDAR J 125 15.00    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of TRICIA'S TRAMA by ARTICLE OF FAITH)
ZIPSY ROSE LEE Nov22 Nov08 Oct24 Oct12 Aug23 (fiesman robe)GONZALEZ KEVIN 126 12.00 8% 10.80    
  (by SKY MESA out of ZIPSO FACTO by CITY ZIP)
WAR VOW Nov18 Nov09 Oct21 Sep30 Sep07 (powell a)BRACHO A 125 3.00 25% 3.00    
  (by ARPISTA out of DYNASHEALS by DONERAILE COURT)
 
MVR-4   12/13/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($36.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HIDDEN ACCESS Aug26 Jul22 Jun02 May11 Apr12 (hamm t)BATISTA ALBERTO 123 8.00 19% 4.30    
TEAM LEYENDECKER Nov28 Aug09 Jul12 Jun24 Jan28 (ramgeet tina)RAMGEET R 124 6.00    
CASUAL ATTIRE Nov30 Nov09 Sep20 Aug26 Aug11 (hamm timothy)LEBRON VICTOR 123 1.20 24% 3.20    
VENTURE ON Sep28 Jun24 May23 Mar21 Dec14 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 124 4.50    
MONSTER HUNTER Apr11 Mar09 Feb09 Jan11 Dec21 (faulkner c)VELEZ J 124 15.00    
KNOCK WOOD Nov28 Nov09 Oct30 Oct03 Sep19 (tumblin )FERNANDEZ R 124 3.00 23% 3.30    
MARVIN'S EXPRESS Nov06 Sep28 Aug29 Jul15 Jun07 (tooley jennifer)AVILES YAN 124 15.00    
 
MVR-5   12/13/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
IRON BERTIE Nov15 Oct25 Oct17 Oct01 Sep19 (fiesman robe)GONZALEZ KEVIN 124 15.00    
BIG BANG BLUE Nov21 Oct31 Sep04 Aug22 Jul18 (bernardini ja)BARBARAN ERIK 123 3.50    
FALL CAMPAIGN Nov13 Oct02 Sep20 Sep06 Aug14 (sondej amy)VELEZ J 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
LORI'S EYES Nov13 Oct04 Sep11 Aug14 Jul01 (pappada)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 4.00 39% 1.60    
DULCE VICTORIA Nov27 Nov13 Oct19 Oct05 Aug22 (schuster robin)AVILES YAN 123 6.00    
VAVITE Nov27 Nov01 Oct23 Oct02 Sep20 (morales sau)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
LIGHT UP MY LIFE Nov14 Sep25 Jun22 Jun01   (radosevich ju)BRACHO A 125 4.50 19% 4.20    
SCR  GET A GRIP MARILYN Dec01 Nov15 Oct31 Oct18 Sep19 (morzan e)YARANGA Y 123 5.00    
CREATIVE CADENCE Nov27 Nov05 Oct18 Sep15 Sep02 (mo)SALAZAR FERNANDO 123 12.00 12% 7.20    
10  JUMP INTO SANITY Nov07 Oct23 Oct09 Sep19 Aug24 (skerrett jeff)TOLEDO S 123 20.00    
11  MOON PARTY Nov13 Sep28 Sep13 Aug12 Aug03 (haehn r)PAUCAR E 124 20.00    
 
MVR-6   12/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($25.9K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MOBIL MEISTER Nov28 Aug01 Jun06 May22 May03 (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 124 20.00    
FABULOUS CLOWN Nov28 Nov02 Oct09 Aug29 Aug10 (faulkner rod)BERRIOS HECTOR 123 15.00    
OAXACA Nov20 Nov06 Aug26 Aug06 Jul07 (skerre)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 4.00    
CAUSE OF LOVE Nov20 Nov02 Apr10 Mar20 Feb23 (haehn r)DIAZ R 124 30.00    
FOREST B Nov25 Nov09 Oct17 Oct02 Sep19 (powell a)BRACHO A 124 3.50 17% 4.80    
LADY LOTTIE Nov20 Nov02 Oct05 Sep19 Aug14 (da)SALAZAR FERNANDO 123 3.00 57% 0.80    
CORNER KICK Oct22 Sep29 Aug31 Jul29 Jun15 (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 123 2.00    
GO STELLAIRE Nov21 Nov07 Oct24 Oct04 Sep18 (vickers)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
SHEZ SHACKED UP Nov02 Jul19 Jun22 Jun01   (skerrett jef)HALDAR J 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
MVR-7   12/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($25.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OKLAHOMA JOE Nov30 Nov15 Oct23 Oct12 Sep13 (radosevich justi)AVILES YAN 125 6.00 15% 5.60    
ZAKARIA Nov14 Oct06 Sep04 Aug09 Jul13 (yoder )BATISTA ALBERTO 124 15.00    
EL ROSILLO Oct16 Sep20 Sep07 Aug14 Jul13 (ellio)ULLOA PATRICIO 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
HOPPY GILMORE Nov21 Oct30 Oct11 Sep12 Aug28 (rone mike)RIVERA R 124 4.00    
MALIBU CLASSIC Nov30 Nov13 Oct21 Sep27 Sep06 (tre)GIRON ALEJANDRO 124 10.00 14% 6.00    
EXCITEMENT Nov20 Oct12 Sep28 Aug26 Aug10 (hamm timothy)LEBRON VICTOR 123 2.50 48% 1.10    
SCR  POSEIDON'S SON Nov21 Oct23 Oct09 Sep25 Sep10 (bernardini ja)BARBARAN ERIK 124 3.00    
EL MARRO Dec04 Nov20 Oct30 Oct13 May20 (romero jose )BERRIOS HECTOR 124 15.00    
WILLIE WANDO Oct05 Sep25 Sep13 Aug07 Jul24 (pizzurro )HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 123 10.00    
 
MVR-8   12/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 2 F PT- 4:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HOT PRINCESS (GB)         (lopez jacinto)CEDILLO MAURO 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BOLD RED out of DONE GOOSE by MONGOOSE)
COMMISSIONER D Sep04         (fadlovich meg)BARBARAN ERIK 122 6.00    
  (by MOBIL out of ANGEL FALLS by KINGMAMBO)
LATE BLOOMBOPPER Nov13 Sep27 Sep08     (barker scot)BRACHO AUGUSTIN 122 20.00    
  (by INDY WIND out of OCTOBER SONG by BERNSTEIN)
SCR  MAC'S CAILIN Nov28 Nov14 Oct10     (szczepansk)COLINA ALEJANDRO 122 20.00    
  (by ITSMYLUCKYDAY out of SHEFLEW by FLATTER)
WINGS OF HEAVEN Nov28         (tumblin andr)BERRIOS HECTOR 122 12.00    
  (by FORT LARNED out of CAMP FAIRFAX R N by FOREST CAMP)
HISTORYINTHEMAKING Nov28 Nov13 Oct28 Sep21   (sweeti)BATISTA ALBERTO 122 3.00    
  (by WILLIAM'S KITTEN out of MAKING HISTORY by PROUD CITIZEN)
MY DANIELA Nov28         (blackhurst randy)AVILES YAN 122 4.00 8% 11.90    
  (by ONE SIDED out of LA LUNA ROUGE by LEROIDESANIMAUX (BRZ))
COWGIRLS HUMOR Nov28 Nov13 Oct28     (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 122 20.00    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of CHIC CAT by TIGER RIDGE)
BOLD RUBY         (lopez jacinto)VELEZ J 122 15.00    
  (by BOLD RED out of O. T. HUGHES by HENNY HUGHES)
10  B SASSI Nov28 Oct28       (smith l)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 122 2.00 65% 0.50    
  (by BIONDETTI out of PELEADORA FUERTE by STRONG CONTENDER)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.