Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Turfway Park
Thursday - January 18, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TP-1   WIN (7/5/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/6/4)-(7/5/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/6/4)-(7/5/6/4)-(7/5/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5/6/4)-(1/2/7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/5/6/4)-(1/2/7/4)-(7/5/11/12/6) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
TP-2   WIN (1/2/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/7/4)-(1/2/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/7/4)-(1/2/7/4)-(1/2/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/2/7/4)-(7/5/11/12/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/2/7/4)-(7/5/11/12/6)-(8/7) 40 $0.50 $20.00 
TP-3   WIN (7/5/11/12/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/5/11/12/6)-(7/5/11/12/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/5/11/12/6)-(7/5/11/12/6)-(7/5/11/12/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/5/11/12/6)-(8/7) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (7/5/11/12/6)-(8/7)-(1/11/7) 30 $0.50 $15.00 
TP-4   WIN (8/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (8/7)-(8/7/6) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (8/7)-(8/7/6)-(8/7/6) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (8/7)-(1/11/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (8/7)-(1/11/7)-(5/2/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
TP-5   WIN (1/11/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/11/7)-(1/11/7/10/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/11/7)-(1/11/7/10/2)-(1/11/7/10/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (1/11/7)-(5/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/11/7)-(5/2/4)-(1/8/4/2/5) 45 $0.50 $22.50 
TP-6   WIN (5/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/4)-(5/2/4/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/2/4)-(5/2/4/7)-(5/2/4/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/2/4)-(1/8/4/2/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/2/4)-(1/8/4/2/5)-(12/4/2/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
TP-7   WIN (1/8/4/2/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/8/4/2/5)-(1/8/4/2/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/8/4/2/5)-(1/8/4/2/5)-(1/8/4/2/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/8/4/2/5)-(12/4/2/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/8/4/2/5)-(12/4/2/5)-(12/8/3/11) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
TP-8   WIN (12/4/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (12/4/2/5)-(12/4/2/3/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (12/4/2/5)-(12/4/2/3/5)-(12/4/2/3/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (12/4/2/5)-(12/8/3/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
TP-9   WIN (12/8/3/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (12/8/3/11)-(12/8/3/4/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (12/8/3/11)-(12/8/3/4/11)-(12/8/3/4/11) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TP-1   01/18/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($20K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  I NINETY FIVE Jan06 Dec29 Aug29 Aug18 Aug04 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 121 3.50    
2  SWIMMINGWITHSHARKS Sep14 Jul31 Jul15 Jun04 Feb03 (cano m)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 6.00    
SCR  ENJOYMENT Dec28 Nov15 Oct20 Dec16 Oct27 (gorosti)DE CRUZ 121 4.00    
4  NEOKING Jan03 Nov07 Jul19 May24 May17 (ellio)ULLOA PATRICIO 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  DEUS EX MACHINA Dec30 Feb04 Jan20 Dec16 Nov10 (garcia genaro)LEON SONNY 121 3.00 26% 2.90    
6  KICK ROCKS KID Dec28 Sep02 Aug17 Aug03 Jul13 (adams na)MARTINEZ LUIS 121 15.00 14% 6.30    
7  BRENTSPENCE Dec28 Dec06 Nov17 Oct25 Sep28 (langemei)MARTINEZ A 121 5.00 26% 2.90    
8  MR. CUNNINGHAM Dec28 Dec06 Sep02 Jun15 May08 (meredith ch)MIRANDA ROGELIO 121 12.00    
9  COG Dec28 Dec06 Nov17 Oct25 Sep20 (short j)CEDILLO ABEL 121 6.00    
 
TP-2   01/18/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($40K) 3 F PT- 6:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROSELEE MAY Dec27 Nov26 Oct29 Sep09   (mccarthy mi)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 3.00 49% 1.00    
  (by BLAME out of SIERRA OLIVIA by PULPIT)
2  VOICE FROM ABOVE Dec09 Nov16       (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 4.50 16% 5.30    
  (by AUDIBLE out of HOW FAR TO HEAVEN by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  FLOWERY PATH Dec30         (murphy conor)ELLIOTT JANE 120 15.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of LIL VIE by THE FACTOR)
4  ANOINTED OF GOD Dec11         (douaihy )MARTINEZ LUIS 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ALWAYS DREAMING out of FOURNINETEEN by FLATTER)
SCR  EVERYTHING BUGS ME Dec02         (hamilton sarah)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.50    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of HISTORY MADE by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
6  MAXISUPERFLY Dec09 Oct21       (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 120 3.50    
  (by OPTIMIZER out of FIREFLY by WOODMAN)
7  CLASSY'N CONNECTED Dec13 Oct26 Sep16 Jul16   (drury thomas )TALAMO JOSEPH 120 5.00 8% 11.80    
  (by CONNECT out of SMART DORIE by SMART STRIKE)
8  PASSING BAYOU         (caramori eduar)LEZCANO ABEL 120 15.00    
  (by CHITU out of HOW'S BAYOU by FLATTER)
9  SANCTIFY Dec30         (holsapple hutc)ASHTON GAVIN 120 15.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of LIQUORICE MARILYN by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
10  HONORS LEGACY         (mcentee paul)TERRAZA GERMAN 113 20.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of TARLOW by STORMIN FEVER)
 
TP-3   01/18/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($30K) 3 ALL PT- 6:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  THOUGHTTHATCOUNTS         (brafford mich)CANUTO THIAGO 120 20.00    
2  EVENING NEWS Dec21 Nov04 Aug27     (asmussen steve)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.50    
3  MR. MELO Dec22 Aug08       (hernandez r)PETERSON FERRIN 120 12.00    
4  BROTHER RICE         (blair jordan)CARROLL DECLAN 120 20.00    
5  PRINCE COLTON Dec28 Jun22 Jun10 May22   (elliott michel)CEDILLO ABEL 120 4.00 9% 10.00    
6  SKY KEY         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  PUBLIUS Jan06 Nov25 Oct28 Aug31   (foster )DE CRUZ 120 3.00 53% 0.90    
8  EARLY MUNNY May18 Apr27 Apr07     (hancock john )LEBRON VICTOR 120 12.00    
SCR  MIDNIGHT AMBITION Nov11         (foley greg)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 10.00    
10  TEN BITS Dec21         (short thomas)TERRAZA GERMAN 113 30.00    
11  DU MONDE         (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 120 8.00 9% 10.00    
12  FALL AGAIN         (thomas jona)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
TP-4   01/18/2024 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 4UP M/F PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RISKY SHOT         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 122 8.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of RUN A RISK by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  MARMALADE SKYE Dec21 Nov10 Oct12     (jacobs magda)ACHARD ALEX 122 3.50    
  (by DANZA out of DAWN BEFORE DAWN by HIGH YIELD)
SCR  TARTAN GREEN (IRE)         (arnold ge)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00    
  (by GLENEAGLES out of ON LOCATION by OLYMPIO)
4  BETTER JUSTICE Dec30 Oct26 Sep03 Aug11   (leitch daniel)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of BETTER NOT CRY by STREET CRY (IRE))
SCR  KARA AND COLLEEN Oct13 Sep13 Aug04 May27 Apr30 (correas ignac)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 3.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of Y'ALL by DISTORTED HUMOR)
6  WICKED FROST May16 Apr25 Mar31 Dec07 Oct26 (greenhill jeff)MCKEE J 122 6.00 ★    
  (by FROSTED out of SPOKEN NOT BROKEN by BROKEN VOW)
7  DAISY JONES Dec22 Nov22 Sep27     (hamilton sarah)ASHTON GAVIN 122 10.00 21% 3.80    
  (by BUCCHERO out of CHANNEL REGATTA by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
8  SCATLIE Sep26 Sep15 Aug06 Jul08 Jun02 (west w)CEDILLO ABEL 122 8.00 35% 1.80    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of CANA by FASTNET ROCK (AUS))
SCR  CRIMALDI Dec30 Nov23 Oct23 May14 Mar16 (foley greg)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of JOSAKA by SMART STRIKE)
10  MY MOON Dec07 Oct22 Sep02 Jul21 Jun11 (maker micha)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 6.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of GIVE MY REGARDS by SMART STRIKE)
 
TP-5   01/18/2024 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($28K) 3 F PT- 7:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TWO SIP SALLY Dec14 Oct19 Sep09     (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 120 4.00 42% 1.40    
2  CALADIUM Jan03 Dec16 Nov18     (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 8.00 ★    
3  FLY HIGH BIRDIE Dec02 Oct27 Sep13     (wilkes r)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 15.00    
SCR  I WANT RUFFLES Dec03         (hamilton sarah)ASHTON GAVIN 120 12.00    
5  TICKET TO FLY Dec16 Sep06 Jul20     (greenhill jeff)OUZTS W 120 20.00    
6  WHITE DOVE Aug01         (walden william)CEDILLO ABEL 120 15.00    
7  SANDRINHA LOVE Dec13         (lobo h)JIMENEZ ALBIN 120 10.00 11% 8.20    
8  HIGH FASHION KATE Jan03 Sep23 Aug20 Aug04   (minnock wayn)RAMOS D 120 8.00    
9  SHE'S SPLENDID Dec16 Nov17 Sep07     (tomlinson)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00    
10  VILLI OLENTO Dec09 Nov04 Sep16 Aug30 Jul22 (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 120 6.00 ★    
11  JILLY'S WEST Dec27 Oct14       (amoss m)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 4.50 23% 3.40    
SCR  EVOCATION Dec30 Dec09 Nov19     (caramor)DE CRUZ 120 8.00    
13  HALCYON DAYS Jan03         (short thomas)TERRAZA GERMAN 113 20.00    
SCR  PALACE DRIVE Dec31 Nov24       (asmussen)RODRIGUEZ A 120 8.00    
 
TP-6   01/18/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($26K) 4UP ALL PT- 8:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SARGEANT BARGER Apr27 Apr01 Mar16 Feb23 Feb09 (alessi james)MONCADA IRVING 110 20.00    
2  GREY CHARMER Dec21 Dec08 Jul12 Jun14 May30 (sims ma)DE CRUZ 120 8.00 16% 5.20    
SCR  LOUISIANIMAL Dec21 Aug12 Jul14 May21 Mar31 (foley greg)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 3.50    
4  ONE LAST HAND Sep12 Aug26 Jul14 Jun15 May05 (wat)HERNANDEZ MANUEL 120 12.00 13% 6.60    
5  CROSSTOWN SHOOTOUT Jan05 Jul15 Jul03 Jun04 Apr29 (esquivel jesus)MACHADO LUAN 120 5.00 34% 1.90    
SCR  MAJOR WAGER Jan05 Dec21 Nov13 Sep13 Sep04 (wisner j)ACHARD ALEX 120 5.00    
7  ALL JOKES ASIDE Dec30 Nov30 Oct30 Sep30 Sep14 (medina tomas)BURGOS ALBERTO 120 6.00 ★    
SCR  MKAR THE FAST Jan05 Nov04 Oct21 Sep12 Aug26 (lynch e)CANUTO THIAGO 120 8.00    
9  EPIMYTHIUM Jan05 Dec09 Oct04 Sep03 Aug11 (meah m)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 4.00    
10  BOMBOLONI Dec09 Nov01 Oct12 Sep22 Aug20 (girten t)MARTINEZ A 120 12.00    
 
TP-7   01/18/2024 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($74K) 3 ALL PT- 8:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  J BIRD TIME Dec15 Nov12 Sep22     (romans dale)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 2.00 39% 1.60    
1A  TIME MUSE Dec01 Sep03 Aug06     (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 2.00    
2  TAKEITANDRUN Dec22 Dec01 Nov09 Oct26 Jun10 (o'donnell mar)CANNON DECLAN 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  GREAT RICHIE M Dec28 Nov18 Oct11     (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
4  QUENCIO Dec22 Nov23 Nov01 Sep22   (garcia gena)BURNHAM MATILDA 111 3.50 16% 5.10    
5  MISSION READY Dec22 Nov25 Oct26 Sep09 Sep01 (fernandez edwa)ASHTON GAVIN 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  EPIC KNIGHT Dec21 Oct11       (harty eoin)MACHADO LUAN 122 8.00    
7  PALHACO Dec20 Nov26 Nov15     (meraz antonio)LEON SONNY 118 30.00    
8  NOAHS ARK (IRE) Nov30         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 120 4.50 19% 4.30    
9  MUGATU Dec31 Dec09 Nov18 Oct12 Jul31 (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 8.00    
10  MIDNIGHT STORMY Dec22 Dec01 Nov09 May29 May11 (minnock wayn)RAMOS D 118 20.00    
 
TP-8   01/18/2024 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($78K) 4UP M/F PT- 9:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TOERIS Dec28 Dec02 Nov02 Sep17 Jul29 (casse mark)ACHARD ALEX 120 8.00    
2  TAKE A STAND Dec21 Jul08 Jun11 May05 Mar11 (oliver )DE CRUZ 120 12.00 13% 7.00    
3  AMAZON QUEEN Dec09 Oct15 Aug31 Jul16 Jun14 (delacour arnau)ROCCO S 120 5.00 ★    
4  WHITE LILACS Dec07 Sep22 Aug31 Aug12 Jul22 (noble f)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 4.00 29% 2.40    
5  BALI KUTA Dec06 Nov04 Oct05 Sep09 Aug31 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  LILLY LANE Dec21 Nov30 Oct18 Sep15 Aug26 (vaughan edwa)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 20.00    
7  NAVY GOAT Dec28 Nov03 Sep17 Mar11 Jan07 (devaux cherie)CEDILLO ABEL 120 8.00    
SCR  ALEXA LOU Dec28 Nov24 Oct27 Sep23 Aug26 (pitts hel)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
9  BULSARA Dec28 May20 Mar04 Feb04 Dec14 (girten tim)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 15.00    
SCR  SWEETS MAKER Dec07 Nov03 Jul14 Jun18 May18 (foley greg)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 15.00    
11  SIGN OF PEACE Mar25 Feb11 Dec31 Oct09   (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 120 8.00    
12  BEACH WALKN Dec21 Nov24 Oct18 Sep10 Jul08 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.00 31% 2.20    
SCR  GET SERIOUS Nov03 Oct12 Sep21 Aug18 Jul31 (mackey wayne)ARAGON ROLANDO 120 15.00    
14  TIC TIC TIC BOOM Nov04 Oct19 Sep13 Sep02 Jul22 (girten t)MARTINEZ A 120 20.00    
 
TP-9   01/18/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($14K) 4UP M/F PT- 9:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RIBALDRY (IRE) Jan06 Dec08 Nov15 Oct26 Sep02 (van thoma)MACHADO LUAN 120 6.00    
2  TOO CROWDED Oct15 Oct02 Aug30 Aug22 Aug01 (wisner j)ACHARD ALEX 120 30.00    
3  BLUE NEITH Dec15 Sep21 Aug24 Jul04 Jun05 (watkins m)FELIX E 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  FREDERICIA Dec15 Oct10 Sep20 Aug22 Jul18 (klopp randy)BURGOS ALBERTO 120 6.00 ★    
5  NORA'S STAR Dec27 Dec08 Nov15 Oct23 Aug30 (elliott mich)TERRAZA GERMAN 113 15.00    
SCR  LUCKY SHORE Dec27 Dec15 Nov13 Oct26 Sep15 (sturgeon c)OUZTS W 120 30.00    
7  LOTTA ROSES Dec27 Dec08 Nov15 Oct26 Sep30 (meraz antonio)LEON SONNY 120 15.00    
8  CLARA BELLE Jan06 Dec08 Aug31 Aug11 Jul12 (maker micha)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 4.50 8% 10.80    
SCR  SKIPPINJUSTICE Dec27 Oct31 Sep27 Sep14 Aug26 (gonzalez lilia)CEDILLO ABEL 120 5.00    
SCR  LIEUTENANT KITTY Dec27 Dec15 Nov17 Oct31 Sep27 (glyshaw tim)MOJICA O 120 15.00    
11  WICKED INTENT Dec27 Dec08 Oct26 Oct17 Sep21 (caramori)MARTINEZ A 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
12  CARIBBEAN NIGHT Sep30 Sep21 Sep02 Aug19 Jul22 (drury thomas)CARROLL DECLAN 120 3.00 63% 0.60    
13  SWIFT TEMPLE Dec15 Sep14 Aug19 Jul21 May22 (wisner )DE CRUZ 120 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.