Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Belmont At The Big A
Thursday - October 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
BAQ-1   WIN (3/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/1)-(3/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/1)-(3/4/1)-(3/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/4/1)-(1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/4/1)-(1/5)-(1/7/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
BAQ-2   WIN (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/5)-(1/6/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (1/5)-(1/6/5)-(1/6/5) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (1/5)-(1/7/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/5)-(1/7/6)-(12/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
BAQ-3   WIN (1/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/6)-(1/7/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/7/6)-(1/7/6)-(1/7/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/7/6)-(12/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/7/6)-(12/9)-(2/7/9/10) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
BAQ-4   WIN (12/9) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (12/9)-(12/9) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (12/9)-(2/7/9/10) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (12/9)-(2/7/9/10)-(6/2/10/12) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
BAQ-5   WIN (2/7/9/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/9/10)-(2/7/9/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/7/9/10)-(2/7/9/10)-(2/7/9/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/7/9/10)-(6/2/10/12) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/7/9/10)-(6/2/10/12)-(3/5/1/6) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
BAQ-6   WIN (6/2/10/12) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/10/12)-(6/2/10/12) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/10/12)-(6/2/10/12)-(6/2/10/12) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/10/12)-(3/5/1/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/2/10/12)-(3/5/1/6)-(2/8/9/10) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
BAQ-7   WIN (3/5/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/5/1/6)-(3/5/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/5/1/6)-(3/5/1/6)-(3/5/1/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/5/1/6)-(2/8/9/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/5/1/6)-(2/8/9/10)-(4/7/10/2) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
BAQ-8   WIN (2/8/9/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/8/9/10)-(2/8/9/7/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (2/8/9/10)-(2/8/9/7/10)-(2/8/9/7/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (2/8/9/10)-(4/7/10/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
BAQ-9   WIN (4/7/10/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/7/10/2)-(4/7/10/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/10/2)-(4/7/10/2)-(4/7/10/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
BAQ-1   10/19/2023 5940ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 3UP M/F PT-12:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DREAMING OF MO Sep21         (martin carlo)CASTELLANO J 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of DREAMING OF YOU by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
2  MISS OUR HERO Sep16 Aug18       (mott i)ORTIZ L 120 3.50    
  (by TAPIT out of MARKET MAGIC by AFTER MARKET)
3  VANISHED Sep16 Jul15 Jun10 May13   (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 120 1.80 66% 0.50    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of ELUSIVE PEARL by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
4  PARTY AT GRANTS Sep15 Jul29 May02 Mar16   (englehart jerem)DAVIS DYLAN 120 6.00 10% 8.70    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of DRFERRYTOTHEFINISH by AFLEET ALEX)
5  RAYYA VALENTINE Sep24 Aug18       (summer)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 8.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of RAYYA by TIZ WONDERFUL)
6  PARIS STYLE (FR) Sep24 Aug30 Aug18 Jul15 Apr07 (mcpeek kenn)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 2.50    
  (by UNKNOWN out of MESEIKA by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
 
BAQ-2   10/19/2023 5940ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($102K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHILI FLAG (FR) Aug17 Jul09 May26 Feb25   (brown c)ORTIZ JR 124 0.60 74% 0.40    
1A  AVENUE NIEL (IRE) Sep22 Jul26       (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 124 0.60    
2  TASS (GB) Aug20 Jul23 May26 Oct26 Oct02 (abreu jorge )CASTELLANO J 122 12.00    
3  TIC TIC TIC BOOM Sep13 Sep02 Jul22 Jul15 Jul02 (bedard alan)MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 15.00    
4  UNRULY JULIE Sep02 Aug02 Jul01 Jun17 Nov18 (mott i)HO WESLEY 124 8.00    
5  STERN CHASER Sep07 Aug13 Jun25 Oct18 Aug16 (matz michae)ALVARADO JUNIOR 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  IMPLICATED Oct28 Sep23 Aug17     (brown c)ORTIZ L 118 2.50 ★    
SCR  BUSTIN BAY Sep24 Aug24 Jul13 Jun01 May04 (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 126 0.80    
 
BAQ-3   10/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($14K) Purse ($28K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY SHYLOCK Sep30 Sep10 May27 Mar30 Mar03 (falcone ro)RIVERA R 115 2.50 53% 0.90    
2  JUST A NYQUIST Sep22 Jul09 Jun18 May28 May04 (barrera oscar)OLVER MADISON 118 4.00    
SCR  DUFRESNE Sep24 Aug06 Jul19 May28 May04 (barre)HERNANDEZ OMAR 121 4.50    
4  SYNONYMOUS Aug31 Aug02 Jul07 Jun18 May12 (pregman jr)USKE S 123 15.00    
5  SWEET AS SUGAR Sep22 Aug18 Jul09 Apr06 Mar12 (shivma)MARAGH RAMSAY 121 15.00    
6  SIMPLE SUGAR Sep22 Aug18 Jul09 Jun04 Mar30 (giglio g)DAVIS A 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  CROWDING OUT Sep09 Aug06 Jun18 May12 Mar11 (walder pete)MCCARTHY TREVOR 121 3.50 25% 3.00    
8  HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH Sep22 Jan29 Jan15 Dec15 Dec01 (barker r)DAVIS DYLAN 121 6.00    
 
BAQ-4   10/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($85K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ROAD TO REMEMBER Aug31 Jun25 May29 Apr28 Nov10 (handal raymond)CARMOUCHE K 121 4.50    
SCR  SOCIAL WHIRL (IRE) Jul23 Nov10 Sep16 Jun24 May27 (morley thomas)DAVIS DYLAN 121 12.00    
3  DREAM CENTRAL Jun25 May26 Oct30 Sep07 Aug18 (sciacca gary)FRANCO MANUEL 121 12.00    
SCR  MZ BIG BUCKS Aug31 Jul19 Jun18 May04 Apr08 (nevin mi)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 8.00    
SCR  THEODORA GRACE Sep17 Oct20 Sep16 Aug12 Jun26 (klesaris r)RIVERA R 116 10.00    
6  TEMPERMENTAL Sep24 Aug11 Aug03 Jun16 May29 (atras rob)ORTIZ JR 123 8.00    
SCR  MASTEROF THE TUNES Oct13 Sep17 Aug31 Jul19 Jun25 (lee joseph)ORTIZ L 123 3.00    
SCR  ITSAKEYPER Sep17 Aug31 Jul23 Jun16 May12 (albertrani )ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 3.50    
9  COUSIN KRISTI Sep06 Aug07 Jul02 May28   (bond harold )CASTELLANO J 125 10.00 28% 2.60    
10  RIBOT'S VALENTINE Sep01 Aug03 Jun01 Jan08 Dec11 (handal raymond)DAVIS KATIE 121 15.00    
SCR  SUE ELLEN MISHKIN Sep28 Aug20 Jul20 May14 Apr25 (walder peter)CASTELLANO J 123 6.00    
12  KHALI MAGIC Sep01 Jun23 Jun03 Apr21 Mar03 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 125 1.60 36% 1.70    
 
BAQ-5   10/19/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($38K) 2 ALL PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  A KNIGHT'S COURAGE Sep17 Aug18 Aug03 Jul16 Jun23 (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 119 4.50    
2  KHADULLAH Oct13 Sep04 Aug18 Jul16 Jun23 (rodriguez )RIVERA R 114 3.50 20% 4.00    
3  SMILE TAKES CHARGE Sep04         (baker charlto)FRANCO MANUEL 119 6.00    
4  ONE WITHEVERYTHING Oct04 Aug18       (mcpeek kenne)CASTILLO ISAAC 119 4.00    
SCR  SOLO IN PARIS Oct04         (persau)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 20.00    
6  RUNNING LUCKY Aug25 Aug04 Jul16     (dini mike)MARTIN MATTIE 112 20.00    
7  KING KHALI         (englehart chris)DAVIS KATIE 119 12.00 16% 5.30    
SCR  STAR SEQUENCE         (serpe m)LUZZI J 119 6.00    
9  MORQ         (englehart chris)DAVIS DYLAN 119 8.00 16% 5.30    
10  SEBA M         (jimenez jos)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 10.00 16% 5.30    
 
BAQ-6   10/19/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($102K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NAPOLEONIC WAR Aug19 Jul20 Aug28 Jul09 Jun04 (brown c)LYNCH FEARGAL 122 6.00    
2  EMARAATY (GB) Sep04 Jun10 Sep05 Aug04 Jul03 (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 122 4.00 24% 3.20    
3  DANCIN IN DA'NILE Sep16 Aug19 Jul30 Jun18 May28 (cox gail)ALVARADO JUNIOR 122 20.00    
SCR  ARI GOLD Sep09 Aug13 Jul20 Dec10 Nov06 (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 118 8.00    
SCR  WICKED FINN Sep04 Aug11 Jul14 May24 Apr22 (kelly blake)CARMOUCHE K 124 12.00    
6  FORT WASHINGTON Sep03 Aug12 May06 Apr01 Mar04 (mcgaughey clau)ORTIZ L 122 3.50 32% 2.20    
7  MIDNIGHT TROUBLE Aug30 Jun04 Dec30 Dec03 Oct15 (morley thom)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 30.00    
SCR  COWBOY JUSTICE (GB) Oct11 Sep19 Sep14 Aug02 Jul28 (murphy conor)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 20.00    
9  JAMIE DREAMS Sep06 Jul21 Jun26 Jun07 May09 (linder j)RENDON JAIRO 122 30.00    
10  JAMES ALOYSIUS Aug26 Jul20 May27 Apr15 Mar08 (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 124 5.00 18% 4.50    
11  DAUNT Sep21 Aug26 Jul30 Jul01 May27 (ribaudo robert )DAVIS DYLAN 122 6.00    
12  GREAT KING (FR) Sep09 Aug19 Jun25 May21 Feb22 (delgado jorge)OLVER MADISON 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SET SAIL Sep28 Aug20 Jul23 Jun11 May14 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 124 1.80    
SCR  SAGAMORE MISCHIEF Sep04 Aug13 Jul08 Sep10 Aug20 (chatterpaul naipa)RIDER TBA 122 6.00    
SCR  BOURBON CALLING Oct01 Aug18 Jul16 Jun17 May05 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 126 2.00    
 
BAQ-7   10/19/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($80K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CARBON Oct08 Sep24 Aug09 Jul30 Jul13 (younghans willi)CARMOUCHE K 122 10.00 7% 13.20    
2  BIG HAZEL Aug11 Jul26 Jun25 Jun16 May27 (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 6.00    
3  SAIL WITH THE WIND Oct01 Aug27 Jul29     (gyarmati lea)CASTELLANO J 120 1.80 40% 1.50    
4  LAVON Aug11 Jun15 Apr23 Mar17 Feb24 (coffey marial)OLVER MADISON 115 20.00    
5  KARA PARA Sep22 Aug23 Aug04 Jun23 May28 (ryerson t)DAVIS DYLAN 118 2.00 28% 2.60    
6  SHESASCOLDASICE Oct02 Sep04 Jul26 Jul11 Jun14 (ferraro an)CASTILLO ISAAC 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  RACING COLORS Sep22 Aug18 Aug03 Jul03 Jun18 (follett norman)RUIZ ELISEO 117 20.00    
8  DASHING DELLA Oct01 Sep14 Jul30 Jun23 May29 (arenas mar)RIVERA R 113 6.00    
 
BAQ-8   10/19/2023 3960ft TURF RC11 GOOD Glen Cove Purse ($125K) 3 F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ZOINNOCENT (IRE) Oct06         (boniface kevi)SILVERA RUBEN 118 50.00    
  (by ZOFFANY (IRE) out of INNOCENT AIR by GALILEO (ARG))
2  DANSE MACABRE Sep02 May03 Mar04 Oct08 Sep13 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 3.00 44% 1.30    
  (by ARMY MULE out of SYLPHIDE by BLAME)
3  DETERMINED JESTER Oct06 Sep02 Aug03 Oct09 Sep06 (schoenthal phi)BOYCE FOREST 118 15.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of CALL MARIAH by DIXIE UNION)
4  LADY BETH Sep15 May27 Feb05     (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 118 8.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of BOREALE by MAKFI (GB))
5  FUTURE IS NOW Sep16 Aug25 Aug05     (trombetta)CARRASCO R 120 8.00    
  (by GREAT NOTION out of PAST AS PRELUDE by BERNARDINI)
6  BEAUTY OF THE SEA Aug12 Jul15 Jun03 May05 Apr07 (orseno joseph )RENDON JAIRO 122 15.00    
  (by BUCCHERO out of BELONG TO SEA by BELONG TO ME)
7  PERSONAL PURSUIT Sep23 Aug20 Jun02 May05 Apr01 (casse mark)CASTELLANO J 120 6.00 ★    
  (by TAPIT out of MADDIE'S ODYSSEY by KITTEN'S JOY)
8  LOVE APPEALS Aug12 Jul15 Apr27 Apr01 Feb16 (clement chris)ORTIZ JR 120 4.00 23% 3.30    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of GIOIA STELLA by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
9  DONTLOOKBACKATALL Sep14 Aug19 Jul10 Jun06 Apr20 (clement christ)ORTIZ L 120 3.50 11% 8.30    
  (by PEACE AND JUSTICE out of CELTIC ARCH by ARCH)
10  TICKER TAPE HOME Sep17 Jul23 Jun10 Mar11 Feb11 (casse mark)ALVARADO JUNIOR 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of JOURNEY HOME by WAR FRONT)
SCR  PLENTITUDE Jul15 Jun16 Apr28     (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 120 12.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of YELLOW AGATE by GEMOLOGIST)
SCR  VIOLET GIBSON (IRE) Aug19 Jul22 Jun24 May06 Mar11 (joseph saffie )CONNER TYLER 118 15.00    
  (by EXPERT EYE out of SOUL OF HOUDINI by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
SCR  QUEEN OF THE MUD (IRE) Sep21 Aug31       (motion gr)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 12.00    
  (by KODIAC out of JAWLAAT by DAYJUR)
SCR  GATITA SUAVE Oct15 Sep03 Aug13 Aug03 Jul15 (sanchez-salomon)DAVIS KATIE 118 50.00    
  (by BAL A BALI out of SENORA GATO by KITTEN'S JOY)
SCR  TAPPIN JOSIE Sep28 Sep16 Aug05 Jun26 Jun02 (de horacio)RIDER TBA 122 3.50    
  (by ANCHOR DOWN out of HOMEMAKER by AFTERNOON DEELITES)
 
BAQ-9   10/19/2023 7260ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CYBER NINJA Sep16 Aug13 Jul08 Jun02 Apr20 (mott i)ORTIZ L 120 3.50    
2  GHOSTLYPRINCE Sep14 Aug16 Jul09 Jun15 May14 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MY IMAGINATION Oct10 Sep23 Aug26 Jul10 Jun13 (bedard alan)LAPRIDA JEREMY 118 15.00    
4  FRANCESCO CLEMENTE (IRE) Sep21         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 124 2.00 46% 1.20    
5  CLASSIC CREATION Jun25 May07 Apr15 Feb04 Jan07 (terranova j)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 15.00    
6  FATIMA'S BLESSING Sep22 Sep04 Aug17 Jul30 May19 (dini mike)RENDON JAIRO 124 12.00    
7  ROYAL SPIRIT Sep16 Sep02 Aug18 Jul21 Jun24 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 122 6.00 21% 3.70    
8  HOLD THE SALSA Sep16 Jun24 May27 May04 Apr01 (lugovi)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 15.00    
9  SWORE Sep03 Jul28 Jul07 May25   (motion grah)FRANCO MANUEL 124 4.00    
10  OMNI KING Sep09 Jul04 May13 Apr15   (kelly blake)ALVARADO JUNIOR 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  PADDINGTON Oct06 Aug18 Jul22 Jun29 May27 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 118 3.00    
SCR  QUALITY CHIC Sep28 Sep14 Aug20 Jun25 May28 (jacobson dav)CASTILLO ISAAC 120 2.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.