Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Saratoga
Sunday - July 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
SAR-1   WIN (3/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/2)-(3/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/2)-(3/6/2)-(3/6/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/2)-(3/5/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/6/2)-(3/5/6/1)-(9/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
SAR-2   WIN (3/5/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/5/6/1)-(3/5/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/5/6/1)-(3/5/6/1)-(3/5/6/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/5/6/1)-(9/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (3/5/6/1)-(9/5)-(4/6/7/8) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
SAR-3   WIN (9/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (9/5)-(9/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (9/5)-(4/6/7/8) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (9/5)-(4/6/7/8)-(1/8/2/4/5) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
SAR-4   WIN (4/6/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/6/7/8)-(4/6/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/7/8)-(4/6/7/8)-(4/6/7/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/6/7/8)-(1/8/2/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/6/7/8)-(1/8/2/4/5)-(11/6/2/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
SAR-5   WIN (1/8/2/4/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/8/2/4/5)-(1/8/2/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/8/2/4/5)-(1/8/2/4/5)-(1/8/2/4/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/8/2/4/5)-(11/6/2/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/8/2/4/5)-(11/6/2/5)-(2/6/5/7) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
SAR-6   WIN (11/6/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (11/6/2/5)-(11/6/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (11/6/2/5)-(11/6/2/5)-(11/6/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (11/6/2/5)-(2/6/5/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (11/6/2/5)-(2/6/5/7)-(3/2/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
SAR-7   WIN (2/6/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/5/7)-(2/6/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/5/7)-(2/6/5/7)-(2/6/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/5/7)-(3/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/6/5/7)-(3/2/5)-(9/5/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
SAR-8   WIN (3/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/5)-(3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/5)-(9/5/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/2/5)-(9/5/7)-(4/8/10/1/5) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
SAR-9   WIN (9/5/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/5/7)-(9/5/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/5/7)-(9/5/7)-(9/5/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (9/5/7)-(4/8/10/1/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
SAR-10   WIN (4/8/10/1/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/8/10/1/5)-(4/8/10/1/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/8/10/1/5)-(4/8/10/1/5)-(4/8/10/1/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
SAR-1   07/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($25K) Purse ($60K) 3 ALL PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  WITH KNOW NAME Oct30 Sep22 Aug26 Jul29   (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 118 15.00    
2  FIGHT FIERCELY Jun11 May04 Apr12 Mar12 Feb10 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 15% 5.50    
3  SPEAKINOFTHEDEVIL Jun20 May29 May13 Apr21 Apr01 (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 118 0.60 34% 2.00    
4  GABE Apr29 Mar19 Jan22 Jan11 Nov23 (hiles je)SANTANA JR 120 5.00    
5  SWAY'SINMYDNA Jun25 Jun18 May26 May14 Apr29 (chatterpaul n)CASTILLO AMIN 118 20.00    
6  GIROOVIN Jun11 Apr16 Mar30 Feb28 Jan29 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 118 6.00 18% 4.40    
 
SAR-2   07/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($25K) Purse ($45K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HANDLE THE TRUTH Jun17 May21 Apr27 Mar26 Jan21 (metiv)HERNANDEZ OMAR 116 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  SUSIE'S SAVER Jul02 Jun17 May19 May12 Apr23 (paragallo jenn)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.50    
3  JOLLY MISS JILL Jun16 Apr29 Apr14 Feb23 Jan25 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 118 2.50 53% 0.90    
4  BRAVO REGINA Apr27 Apr07 Mar19 Feb19 Oct25 (rome)HUAYAS (JASON) 118 6.00    
5  ALICE KRAMDEN Jun16 May12 Jul27     (quick j)DAVIS DYLAN 118 4.00 11% 7.80    
6  JACKSON AVENUE Jun06 May15 Apr24 Nov22 Nov07 (breed ro)DAVIS A 123 15.00 10% 9.00    
7  YOGI May19 Mar12 Dec29 Nov26 Aug31 (bond harold )TORRES A 118 3.00    
8  JOEY THE FISH Jun17 May19 Apr27 Apr02 Mar12 (persaud ran)MARTINEZ R 118 30.00    
 
SAR-3   07/16/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($156K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MISS CAROL ANN (IRE) May18 Sep18       (motion graha)ROSARIO JOEL 122 5.00    
SCR  PLEASANT PASSAGE Jun18 Apr08 Nov04 Oct01 Aug21 (mcgaughey cla)VELAZQUEZ R 118 3.00    
SCR  BEECHNUT TROPHY Apr22 Mar25 Dec29 Sep05 May06 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 8.00    
SCR  BEAUTE CACHEE (FR) May26         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 124 1.60    
5  LINNY KATE Jun23 Jun03 Apr27 Mar29 Feb16 (noda orlando)FRANCO MANUEL 126 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SAIL BY May18 Oct14 Sep18 Aug20 May28 (antonacc)SANTANA JR 122 12.00    
SCR  VERONICA GREENE Jun18 May07 Apr08 Nov13 Sep18 (brown c)ORTIZ L 124 3.00    
8  SKRATCH KAT Jun03 Nov25 Oct21 Sep24 Aug20 (bauer phil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50    
9  SUNSET LOUISE Jun16 May04 Oct30 Sep24 Aug17 (levine bruce)ORTIZ L 126 2.00 62% 0.60    
SCR  PHAROAH'S HEART Jun16 Apr16 Mar17 Feb24 Dec09 (nevin michelle)LEZCANO JOSE 126 3.00    
 
SAR-4   07/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($14K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LET FREEDOM SPRING Jun04 Apr29 Apr01 Mar12 Feb27 (noda orlando)ORTIZ JR 124 1.80    
SCR  CENTRAL PRIDE Jun25 Jun04 May05 Apr22 Apr01 (persaud rand)CASTELLANO J 124 8.00    
3  MERCHANTS OF COOL Jun18 May28 Oct23 Oct13 Mar19 (summers ch)GREENIDGE ELIJAH 115 20.00    
4  CHARGER Jun24 Jun11 Apr14 Mar19 Feb20 (rodriguez r)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 46% 1.20    
5  PRINCE OF JOY Jun18 May21 Apr28 Apr15 Mar05 (summers )DAVIS A 124 20.00    
6  ENSIGN PARKER May28 May14 Mar02 Feb03 Jan22 (lynch natalia)DAVIS DYLAN 122 5.00 13% 6.40    
7  HEREBY May29 May15 Apr22 Apr02 Mar05 (brown r)DAVIS KATIE 124 6.00 11% 8.10    
8  NORGAY Jun18 May21 May13 Apr20 Apr01 (barrera oscar )ALVARADO R 124 8.00 8% 12.30    
 
SAR-5   07/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($88K) 2 ALL PT- 3:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  KHADULLAH Jun23 May28       (rodriguez rudy)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 1.60 59% 0.70    
  (by MISSION IMPAZIBLE out of MIDWAY MUSIC by BLUEGRASS CAT)
SCR  ANTONIO OF VENICE Jun23 May12       (rodriguez r)SAEZ LUIS 119 1.60    
  (by LAOBAN out of STELLA PERFORMANCE by TRAPPE SHOT)
2  MAMA'S MIDDIE         (maker michael )ORTIZ L 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of MAMA KNOWS BEST by SKY MESA)
3  DIXIE PHARAOH         (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 119 8.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of POSSESSIVE by BERNARDINI)
4  ALBEDO         (serpe philip )FRANCO MANUEL 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LEOFRIC out of BELLE DE FRANCE by THOREAU)
5  JAKE'S ORCHARD         (torelli stacy)FRET STEVEN 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by COAL FRONT out of BLUEBRASS BELLE by BLUEGRASS CAT)
6  COLLECTED SPECIAL         (delgado jo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of EXCLUSIVE WOMAN by CAT THIEF)
7  ICE THE KICKER         (giddings melan)LEZCANO JOSE 119 10.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of NICOLE'S MISS EL by ELTISH)
8  ALWAYS A WARRIOR         (david carlos )ORTIZ JR 119 4.00 15% 5.60    
  (by POSEIDON'S WARRIOR out of SHE'S ALWAYS READY by MORE THAN READY)
9  A KNIGHT'S COURAGE Jun23         (donk david)DAVIS KATIE 119 15.00    
  (by BOURBON COURAGE out of SOIGNE by INCLUDE)
 
SAR-6   07/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROCKSTAR RED Jul02 Jun02 May07 Mar18 Jan21 (rice linda)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 6.00    
SCR  HAPPY BOB May27 Dec15 Nov11 Aug13 Jun26 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 124 6.00    
2  DR KRINGLE Jun25 Jun02 Apr27 Mar17   (wilkes r)ORTIZ JR 124 3.50 10% 8.60    
3  LASTLY         (lerman s)DAVIS DYLAN 124 30.00    
SCR  CUMBERLAND Jun03 Mar17 Jan26     (weaver george)ROSARIO JOEL 118 4.50    
5  GOLD TEMPLAR Jun28 Jun12 May23 May02 Nov07 (falk jacquel)HARKIE K 118 50.00 5% 19.00    
6  RINGSIDE Mar11 Jan21       (sisterson jack)ORTIZ L 118 6.00 28% 2.50    
7  DREAMWITHINADREAM Jun04 Jan27 Jan14 Nov26 Oct30 (hiles a)CASTELLANO J 118 30.00    
SCR  FAST BOAT TO SKYE Jul01 Jun17 May05 Apr13 Feb11 (donk david)VELAZQUEZ R 118 10.00    
SCR  LIQUID ADDICTION (IRE) Jun24 Apr26 Mar25     (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00    
SCR  MO SATURDAYS Jun22 May04 Feb02 Oct30 Oct09 (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00    
11  HE'S GOT SWAGGER May20 May04 Apr08 Feb25 Feb03 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 118 4.00 40% 1.50    
SCR  GAME KEEPER Jun02 May02 Mar11 Feb25   (lukas wayne)ORTIZ JR 118 4.00    
 
SAR-7   07/16/2023 6270ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($149.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PROVE WORTHY Jun10 May02 Mar11 Jan21   (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 120 4.50    
2  OUSTER May29 Apr14 Mar18 Feb19 Jan05 (hennig mark)DAVIS DYLAN 125 2.50 38% 1.70    
3  THE PRINCE'S SPUR Jun10 May11 Oct22 Oct01 Aug24 (bauer philip )VELAZQUEZ R 123 5.00    
4  COMPLETE AGENDA May21 Apr23 Mar31 Feb17 Jan14 (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 125 10.00    
5  SAQEEL Jun10 Apr02 Mar19 Feb25 Feb10 (diodoro robertino)SAEZ LUIS 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  FILM STAR Jul01 May21 May06 Apr19 Feb24 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 125 2.00 29% 2.40    
7  PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE Jun18 Jun01 May19 Mar31 Mar10 (shirer m)SANTANA JR 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
SAR-8   07/16/2023 4620ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($162.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MR PHIL Jun22 May13 Apr20 Aug10 Jun10 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 124 10.00    
2  NAKATOMI May20 Apr08 Mar04 Dec26 Nov05 (ward wesle)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 22% 3.60    
3  BABY YODA May06 Oct29 Oct07 Aug27 Jul16 (mott i)ROSARIO JOEL 122 1.20 47% 1.10    
4  SHOOTERS SHOOT Jun15 Apr10 Mar05 Jan29 Jan02 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00    
5  SHERIFF BIANCO Jul01 May29 Apr30 Apr23 Mar30 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 124 3.50 11% 8.30    
6  BOURBON CALLING Jun17 May05 Mar19 Feb20 Jan06 (arriaga antoni)PRAT FLAVIEN 126 8.00    
 
SAR-9   07/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC12 SLOPPY Quick Call Purse ($175K) 3 ALL PT- 5:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  NO NAY HUDSON (IRE) May13 Apr16 Nov05 Oct09 Aug19 (ward a)GRAHAM J 122 6.00    
  (by NO NAY NEVER out of RAW SILK by MALIBU MOON)
2  KIGALI Jun24 May04 Mar25 Feb18 Jan21 (bauer philip)GEROUX FLORENT 118 20.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of SUGAR SWEET by MR. GREELEY)
SCR  EYE WITNESS May20 Mar25 Jan01 Sep23   (ward a)ORTIZ L 122 4.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of GRACILIA by MR. GREELEY)
SCR  DR OSERAN May20 Mar25 Feb02 Dec17 Jul01 (clement christ)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 8.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of ACT NOW by STREET SENSE)
5  TWO OF A KIND May13 Apr16 Mar18 Feb04 Jan01 (lynch bri)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00 16% 5.30    
  (by OVERANALYZE out of FREUD'S IRISH MISS by FREUD)
SCR  CHARGING May20 Apr26 Mar26 Feb05   (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 118 10.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of ELECTRIC by SMART STRIKE)
7  BRITERDAYZAHEAD Jun23 May21 Apr16 Sep03   (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00 12% 7.10    
  (by GIRVIN out of PURE GREY by TOO MUCH BLING)
SCR  SON OF A BIRCH May20 May05 Jul30 Jul01   (morley thoma)CASTELLANO J 118 30.00    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of URQUIA by SCAT DADDY)
9  UNCASHED May20 May07 Apr20 Oct21 Sep13 (rivelli larry)ORTIZ JR 122 5.00 30% 2.30    
  (by UNCAPTURED out of CHARLIE B by WAR CHANT)
SCR  GASLIGHT DANCER May13 Apr16 Nov04 Oct09 Sep03 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of RAINDROPS DROPTOPS by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
11  JOEY FRESHWATER Jul01 May20 May12 Apr08 Mar19 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 124 4.50    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of LAKE TURKANA by MORE THAN READY)
12  ACOUSTIC AVE Jun26 Nov25 Oct17 Sep26 Aug26 (clement chris)FRANCO MANUEL 118 6.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of ROCK AVE. ROAD by STREET BOSS)
 
SAR-10   07/16/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($43K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NORTHWAY Jun03 May05 Mar18 Feb20   (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 119 4.00 7% 13.00    
SCR  SARAH'S DIALED IN May13 Oct08 Aug18     (dini mike)MARTIN MATTIE 112 20.00    
3  MAGNOLIA WIND Jun03 May12 Mar24 Mar03 Jan20 (diprima gregory)DAVIS KATIE 119 12.00    
4  MAGGIE Jun15 Nov19 Oct24 Sep25 Sep15 (kirby t)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 30% 2.30    
5  MARLEY'S GHOST Jan22 Dec30 Nov27     (trombetta mich)LEZCANO JOSE 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  CAUSE I'M ELEGANT Jun15 Feb12 Jan28 Nov19   (donk david)TORRES A 114 12.00    
7  IRISH EMPRESS Jun26 Jun03 May13 Dec02 Nov19 (rodriguez gu)CASTELLANO J 119 8.00    
8  SHE'S A NINE May21 Apr29       (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 119 5.00 23% 3.40    
9  BELLA SONADORA Mar18         (figueroa carlos)LUZZI J 119 20.00    
10  STRANGE FRUIT Jun01 May06 Apr23 Mar31 Jan20 (reynolds patri)ORTIZ L 119 4.50 14% 6.30    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.