Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - May 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (3/6/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/2/1)-(3/6/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/2/1)-(3/6/2/1)-(3/6/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/6/2/1)-(6/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (3/6/2/1)-(6/1)-(3/1/6/2) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/1)-(6/1/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (6/1)-(6/1/3)-(6/1/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (6/1)-(3/1/6/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/1)-(3/1/6/2)-(1/2/6/13) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-3   WIN (3/1/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/6/2)-(3/1/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/6/2)-(3/1/6/2)-(3/1/6/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/1/6/2)-(1/2/6/13) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/1/6/2)-(1/2/6/13)-(5/6/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (1/2/6/13) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/6/13)-(1/2/6/13/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/2/6/13)-(1/2/6/13/11)-(1/2/6/13/11) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/2/6/13)-(5/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2/6/13)-(5/6/1)-(7/4/2/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-5   WIN (5/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/1)-(5/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/1)-(5/6/1)-(5/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/1)-(7/4/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/6/1)-(7/4/2/1)-(5/8/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (7/4/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/2/1)-(7/4/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/2/1)-(7/4/2/1)-(7/4/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/4/2/1)-(5/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/2/1)-(5/8/1)-(11/4/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-7   WIN (5/8/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/8/1)-(5/8/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/8/1)-(5/8/1/3)-(5/8/1/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/8/1)-(11/4/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/8/1)-(11/4/5)-(6/3/2/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-8   WIN (11/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (11/4/5)-(11/4/5/1/13) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (11/4/5)-(11/4/5/1/13)-(11/4/5/1/13) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (11/4/5)-(6/3/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (11/4/5)-(6/3/2/7)-(8/7/1/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-9   WIN (6/3/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/3/2/7)-(6/3/2/7/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/3/2/7)-(6/3/2/7/5)-(6/3/2/7/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/3/2/7)-(8/7/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-10   WIN (8/7/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/7/1/3)-(8/7/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/7/1/3)-(8/7/1/3)-(8/7/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 6:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GEORGE'S HONEY         (casse mark)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 5.00 7% 13.50    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of QUE CHULO by RACING RHINOCEROUS)
2  HONOR CAT         (diodoro r)TORRES A 119 8.00 8% 11.90    
  (by HONOR CODE out of SENSE OF WAR by STREET SENSE)
3  DEBOISBLANC         (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 2.00 45% 1.20    
  (by MUNNINGS out of TENSAS COWGIRL by COWBOY CAL)
4  SAPPHIRE NIGHTS Apr19         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 4.50    
  (by MITOLE out of MISCHIEF GALORE by INTO MISCHIEF)
5  UNMATCHED Apr26         (colebrook ben)NAVAS YOEL 112 8.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of YAHILWA by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
6  AIM HIGHER Apr19         (elliott l)GRAHAM J 119 4.00 13% 6.50    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of SPECIAL YOU by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  YOU'RE FOREVER         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
  (by FIRING LINE out of APRIL'S PROMISE by BROKEN VOW)
8  GREEN CHILE Apr13         (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of PERSEVERANTE by STUKA)
 
CD-2   05/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 F PT- 6:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DAZZLING BLUE Dec26 Nov16       (cox brad)SANTANA JR 118 1.60 32% 2.10    
2  HOLIDAY DECISION Apr26 Mar29 Mar13 Jan26 Jan13 (delacruz me)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 20.00    
3  B G WARRIOR May03 Apr01 Mar04 Feb11 Jan26 (kahles ronal)RAMOS D 118 10.00 ★    
4  PROMISE OF HOPE Dec26 Dec04 Oct30 Oct07 Sep08 (amoss m)LANERIE J 118 8.00    
SCR  BACK TO OHIO Oct29 Oct03 Aug13 Jul08 Jun23 (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 2.50    
6  SUNDAY SHOES Apr01 Feb15       (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 120 2.00 44% 1.30    
 
CD-3   05/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TX WOMEN FOR ARTS         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 3.50 25% 3.10    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of PROXIMITY BIAS by FLATTER)
2  HI'IAKA         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 6% 17.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of HUA MULAN by MALIBU MOON)
3  CHEETAH MISS         (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 3.00 31% 2.20    
  (by MITOLE out of OLIVE BRANCH by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
4  V V'S DREAM         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50    
  (by MITOLE out of QUAY by TAPIT)
5  GLORIETTE Apr19         (colebrook ben)NAVAS YOEL 112 6.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of JULERETTE by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
6  ARGAN Apr26         (gutierrez)TORRES A 119 8.00 7% 13.50    
  (by NYQUIST out of AUDREY'S DOUBLE by PULPIT)
7  VIBE CHECK         (casse w)GRAHAM J 119 8.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of DAILY CAST by CURLIN)
8  LITTLE MUSIC Apr26         (holsapple hutc)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
  (by CARPE DIEM (FR) out of FROZEN MUSIC by LANGFUHR)
SCR  TITANIA'S DREAM Apr26         (mccutchen j)FRANKLIN MALCOM 119 8.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of PEACE PROCESS by SUGGEST)
 
CD-4   05/19/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIGH FRONT Apr21 May29 May05 Apr07 Jan28 (thomas jona)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 1.60 46% 1.20    
2  B D VALESKI Apr21 Mar30 Mar10 Feb10 Dec31 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 123 5.00 27% 2.80    
3  ROMAN GIANT Oct28 Sep25 Sep08 Aug14 Jul16 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 118 8.00    
4  KING OF SONG Feb10 Dec17 Aug31 Aug18   (brinkman b)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 12.00    
5  FINGERS Feb22         (miller darrin)CASTANON L 118 20.00    
6  GILDED RULER Mar10 Dec31 Feb05     (sharp joe)LOVEBERRY JARETH 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  GROUP EIGHTEEN Apr19 Mar18 Feb24 Jan28 Jan06 (williamson bri)MILLER CHASE 123 20.00    
8  LAVER Apr28 Feb11 Jan01 Nov13 Oct20 (arnold r)GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
SCR  TRUE JEDI Sep27 Aug29 Aug07 Jul22 May22 (davis chri)CORRALES GERARDO 123 10.00    
10  ARABIAN PRINCE Apr26 Feb03 Jan15 Dec08 Nov16 (barnett b)LEPAROUX R 123 15.00    
11  TRUST DADDY Apr21 Dec02 Nov20 Sep14 Jul03 (o'dwyer jere)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 8.00 ★    
12  BRAZEN BOY Mar25 Mar09 Feb03 Dec29 Nov24 (blair jordan)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 10.00    
13  COUNTERSTRIKE Mar10 Feb24 Jan28 Jun23 Apr21 (ennis john)HEARD TYLER 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BADGEBALL Nov02 Oct16 Sep22 Jun25   (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 123 20.00    
SCR  LARK'S MISCHIEF Apr08 Mar03 Jan21 Dec10 Nov19 (asmussen ste)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 3.50    
SCR  ANGKOR May03 Mar25 Feb24 Dec18 Nov25 (bauer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 3.00    
SCR  NULLARBOR Apr09 Feb11 Jan06 Oct10 Aug20 (ramirez m)NAVAS YOEL 111 5.00    
 
CD-5   05/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3 F PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LILY'S CREED Apr27 Mar24 Feb28 Feb09 Jan25 (scherer maria)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00 12% 7.60    
2  GRAY FROST Apr19 Mar23 Feb02 Dec03 Nov02 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 120 5.00    
3  OATH OF ALLEGIANCE Feb17 Jan20 Dec31 Nov19 Sep22 (sharp joe)GRAHAM J 118 2.50    
4  ROJA LIGERA Mar24 Jul31 Jul01     (sharp joe)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 3.00    
5  JUST LIKE MAGIC Apr07 Feb25 Dec26 Nov27 Jul04 (amoss m)LANERIE J 118 2.00 30% 2.30    
6  BIZZY GIRL Apr12 Nov01 Sep02 Aug10   (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00 14% 6.30    
 
CD-6   05/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 4UP ALL PT- 8:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEST OF GREELEY Apr22 Mar17 Feb04 May03 Apr13 (asmussen ste)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 3.50 9% 10.60    
2  GAME BOY BENNY Apr13 Feb10 Jan13 Dec04 Nov12 (winebaugh )MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00 14% 6.10    
3  HIGH TONE May04 Apr19 Feb21 Jan20 Dec29 (shirer a)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.00    
4  RACE DRIVER May04 Apr22 Mar23 Feb25 Jan27 (delacruz me)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 2.50 26% 2.90    
5  CRIME SPREE May04 Feb23 Jan12 Dec18 Sep15 (leonard ge)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00    
6  BOISE May04 Feb24 Jan28 Jan01 Dec21 (cash l)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 12.00    
7  HURRICANE HIGHWAY Mar31         (wong jon)SANTANA JR 118 3.00 28% 2.60    
 
CD-7   05/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STONEVICIOUS May11 Apr08 Mar18 Feb25 Jan28 (foster eric)RAMOS D 123 5.00 6% 17.00    
2  MIDASWELLRUN Nov19 Oct19 Sep01 Apr28 Apr10 (blair jordan)GRAHAM J 123 4.50    
3  ON K P Apr30 Apr06 Mar18 Feb11 Dec30 (rednour jr)COURT K 123 10.00 ★    
4  I'M WIDE AWAKE Apr18 Dec28 Nov20 Nov02 Sep16 (garcia ge)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
5  MAC DADDY TOO Apr16 Feb18 Jan08 Oct22 Sep09 (diodoro r)TORRES A 123 2.50 49% 1.00    
6  BODOCK Apr18 Mar18 Feb25 May21 Apr02 (simms j)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 3.50    
7  PICO D'ORO Feb18 Jan22 Nov21 Nov08 Oct15 (caramori ca)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 12.00    
8  FAITHFUL RULER Apr25 Mar18 Feb18 Jul29 May31 (watkins ja)CORRALES GERARDO 123 6.00 19% 4.10    
 
CD-8   05/19/2023 5940ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALTAZOR (ARG) Apr15         (correas iv)GRAHAM J 122 10.00 ★    
2  HENLEY'S JOY Apr07 Mar04 Jan28 Jan04 Dec04 (casse mar)TORRES A 122 12.00    
3  RUPP N READY Jan21 Dec28 Nov13 Oct19 Oct03 (pitts hel)LEPAROUX R 122 20.00    
4  HIDDEN STASH Apr13 Feb12 Jun18 Jun03 May05 (oliver victor)GARCIA MARTIN 122 4.00 11% 7.70    
5  MAHAAMEL (IRE) Feb24 Feb11 Jan08 Nov27 Oct28 (sharp jo)SANTANA JR 122 5.00 6% 15.40    
6  FEBRUARY SON Apr13 Oct19 Sep07 Aug16 Jul13 (granitz anth)CASTILLO ISAAC 122 30.00    
7  STOLEN BASE Dec26 Nov27 Oct29 Aug05 Jul09 (maker mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 6.00    
SCR  RARIFIED FLAIR Apr07 Mar25 Oct29 Oct09 Sep06 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 116 15.00    
SCR  BEAR OAK Apr23 Mar30 Mar10 Feb09 Jan18 (bahena ismael)GILLIGAN JACK 122 20.00    
10  PUNCH HARD Apr15         (beckman whi)CANNON DECLAN 122 30.00    
11  PRICE TALK Feb18 Jan21 Dec17 Sep25 Aug06 (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 2.50 61% 0.60    
12  MICROPHONE (IRE) Apr27 Mar02 Feb03 Oct21 Aug28 (west w)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 6.00    
13  RISK MANAGER Mar25 Mar05 Jan28 Dec26 Nov18 (maker mich)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 6.00 ★    
SCR  SEARCH ENGINE Feb28 Feb11 Dec11 Nov04 Sep30 (amoss m)LANERIE J 122 4.00    
SCR  JOHNY'S FIREBALL May11 Feb22 Jan14 Feb25   (bauer phi)LEPAROUX R 122 3.50    
SCR  SHORTLIST Apr16 Mar16 Dec15 Oct03 Sep12 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 5.00    
SCR  COMMANDPERFORMANCE Apr06 Aug07 Jul10 Jun10 Apr09 (sharp joe)CASTILLO ISAAC 122 3.00    
 
CD-9   05/19/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT-10:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KEEN CONTENDER Apr15 Mar16 Feb19 Feb10 Jan13 (van berg )TORRES A 124 15.00    
2  HAMMERDONHAPPINESS Mar05         (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 16% 5.30    
3  WITCH OF NOVEMBER Apr01 Mar15       (mccarthy m)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 21% 3.80    
4  COLORATURA Oct01 Sep14 Aug26 Jun17 May27 (caramori ca)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 10.00    
5  MARKSWOMAN Mar05 Nov24 Nov06 Oct01   (foley greg)LANERIE J 124 6.00 ★    
6  FASHION IDOL Aug19 Jul22       (cox brad)SANTANA JR 118 4.00 29% 2.40    
7  GET BY Apr19 Mar31 Oct01 Aug27 Jul16 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 10.00 10% 8.80    
SCR  DIAL TONI Mar16 Jan22 Dec30     (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 124 6.00    
SCR  VALIANT PRAISE May04 Apr21 Apr02 Mar05 Feb08 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
10  PADDY GAL Apr23 Sep05 Jul29     (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 15.00    
11  TERRANOVA Jan16 Dec22 Nov18 Jan07   (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 30.00    
12  CALLIE'S PASSION Sep16 Jul20       (sharp joe)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 5.00    
SCR  DOODLE DOO May04         (obert danielle)STEVENS C 114 20.00    
SCR  XTRAORDINARYMOTION May02 Aug30 Jul22 Jul04   (minnock g)NAVAS YOEL 111 20.00    
 
CD-10   05/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT-10:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CIRCLE BACK JACK May04 Mar10 Feb10 Jan06 Dec16 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 123 6.00 8% 12.20    
2  KEEN ON YOU Apr29 Apr21 Mar04 Feb17 Feb03 (cundiff way)PETERSON FERRIN 123 20.00    
3  AERONAUT Apr07 Mar15 Feb18 Jan21 Dec17 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  SCHMOOZIN Apr21 Feb21 Jan15 Dec23 Nov16 (pessin nei)LOVEBERRY JARETH 123 6.00    
SCR  BACKSIDE BUZZ May06 Mar23 Feb24 Feb03 Jan15 (vance tho)TORRES A 118 3.00    
6  SUPREMELY Apr21 Mar22 Feb11 Dec19 Nov25 (foley greg)LANERIE J 123 5.00    
7  PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE Mar31 Mar10 Jan15 Nov16 Nov09 (asmussen ste)CASTILLO ISAAC 123 4.00 22% 3.60    
8  RETAINED Apr18 Feb11 Jan07 Dec09 Oct14 (morey w)DE CRUZ 118 2.50 44% 1.30    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.