Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 06, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (3/7/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/2/4)-(3/7/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/2/4)-(3/7/2/4)-(3/7/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/7/2/4)-(5/1/2/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/7/2/4)-(5/1/2/6)-(6/8/7/3/10) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/1/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/2/6)-(5/1/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/2/6)-(5/1/2/6)-(5/1/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1/2/6)-(6/8/7/3/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/1/2/6)-(6/8/7/3/10)-(2/8/4/7) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-3   WIN (6/8/7/3/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/8/7/3/10)-(6/8/7/3/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/8/7/3/10)-(6/8/7/3/10)-(6/8/7/3/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/8/7/3/10)-(2/8/4/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/8/7/3/10)-(2/8/4/7)-(3/6/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-4   WIN (2/8/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/8/4/7)-(2/8/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/8/4/7)-(2/8/4/7)-(2/8/4/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/8/4/7)-(3/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/8/4/7)-(3/6/2)-(2/10/3/6/1) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-5   WIN (3/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/2)-(3/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/2)-(3/6/2)-(3/6/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/2)-(2/10/3/6/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/6/2)-(2/10/3/6/1)-(1/6/5/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (2/10/3/6/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/10/3/6/1)-(2/10/3/6/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/10/3/6/1)-(2/10/3/6/1)-(2/10/3/6/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/10/3/6/1)-(1/6/5/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/10/3/6/1)-(1/6/5/2)-(2/7/4/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-7   WIN (1/6/5/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/5/2)-(1/6/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/5/2)-(1/6/5/2)-(1/6/5/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/5/2)-(2/7/4/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/6/5/2)-(2/7/4/5)-(4/7/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-8   WIN (2/7/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/4/5)-(2/7/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/7/4/5)-(2/7/4/5)-(2/7/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/7/4/5)-(4/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-9   WIN (4/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/6)-(4/8/7/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/7/6)-(4/8/7/6)-(4/8/7/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/06/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  I'M YOUR MAN Sep22 Jul21 Jun29 May31 May05 (mcgee pau)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50    
2  SHOGUN BE FAST Oct18 Sep07 Jul25 Jul06 Jun22 (synnefias pan)JARA FERNANDO 118 4.50 18% 4.70    
3  ETHEREAL ROAD Sep22 Jul22 Mar30 Mar02 Jan13 (sweezey kent)VAZQUEZ A 121 3.00 29% 2.50    
4  CASHMEUP Sep22 Aug19 Jul20 Jul05 Jun15 (miller jerom)MONCADA IRVING 114 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  BAYOU MAGIC Jul28 Jun05 Feb09 Dec23 Sep15 (hill f)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00    
6  MY NOBLE KNIGHT Sep25 Sep11 Aug07 Jul26 Jul06 (amoss m)LANERIE J 118 4.00    
7  NOT NORMAL Oct18 Sep22 Aug11 Jul20 May04 (murphy con)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.00 23% 3.40    
 
CD-2   11/06/2024 3960ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LINE OF SCRIMMAGE Oct10 Sep15 Aug24     (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.50 23% 3.30    
2  CATHEDRAL BEACH Oct11 Sep15 Aug12 Jun28 Jun06 (synnefias pan)JARA FERNANDO 120 5.00 23% 3.30    
3  AIRBORNE ELITE Nov22 Oct15 Sep14 Aug18   (reed r)BEJARANO R 120 20.00    
4  ZECA DIABO Oct10 Sep15 Aug29 Aug01 Jul13 (caramori eduar)MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00    
5  B SUDD Oct10 Sep15 Aug05 Jun28 May30 (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 1.60 27% 2.70    
6  NORTHERN CHILL Sep19 Aug12 Jul11 Apr07 Mar02 (blair jor)TORRES A 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  GETTYSBURG ADDRESS Sep22 Aug13 Jun23 May04 Apr06 (contreras cip)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
8  TRUST DADDY Oct11 Sep07 Aug17 Jun16 May24 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 3.00    
 
CD-3   11/06/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 F PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DON'T WORRY Oct11 Sep11 Aug25     (oliver vict)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 6.00    
2  GREENWICH PIKE Oct20 Aug17       (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
3  SHADY NIGHTS         (navarrete an)MONCADA IRVING 112 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  AIRFORCE LIGHTNING Oct13 Sep19 Aug26     (puhich mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
5  CATNIP HILL Oct18 Sep13       (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00    
6  MEZCALIFORNIA Oct13 Sep27 Aug22 Aug07 Jul13 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 33% 2.00    
7  BLUSHING KAM Sep13         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 10.00 15% 5.60    
8  MAGNETIC BEACH Oct11         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00 30% 2.30    
9  RANDO Sep15 Aug03       (stall m)ELLIOTT JANE 119 4.00    
10  FLASHLIGHT (IRE)         (dalton michel)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 20.00 5% 19.00    
11  LASKO LADY Oct19 Sep27 Jul13     (vance thom)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 15.00    
12  REIGN CHAMPAGNE Sep19 Aug31 Jul29 Jun28   (scherer mari)TORRES A 119 12.00    
SCR  GLOBAL QUEEN Sep26         (tomlinson m)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00    
 
CD-4   11/06/2024 3300ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TITANIA'S DREAM Apr26         (meah m)SAEZ LUIS 122 6.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of PEACE PROCESS by SUGGEST)
2  SPLATTERED         (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 122 2.50 28% 2.50    
  (by FLATTER out of SPLASH HIT by FLOWER ALLEY)
3  FLAT STORMIN Sep27         (shirer matt )TORRES A 122 12.00    
  (by FLATTER out of STORMBEFORETHECALM by QUIET AMERICAN)
4  SWEET TROUBLE Sep27 Feb15 Apr07 Mar03 Jan28 (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 124 3.50 15% 5.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of CHOCOLATE COATED by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
5  BLACKFOOT DAISY Aug22 Dec14       (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 122 4.00    
  (by IQBAAL out of BISTRO MONCUR by LONHRO (AUS))
6  ADALENE Sep04 Aug08 Jul11 Jun20 May23 (salas marcelin)ORTIZ L 122 6.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SWEET ON SMOKEY by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
7  GO PURPLE Sep21 Aug26 Aug05     (ortiz john )CONCEPCION AXEL 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of WAKI PATRIOT by AWESOME PATRIOT)
8  BANG BANG FURY Feb24 Dec16 Nov03 Sep16   (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 5.00 28% 2.60    
  (by VIOLENCE out of READY REPLY by MORE THAN READY)
 
CD-5   11/06/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 F PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BENEDETTA Sep15 Aug17 Jun28 Sep09 Aug12 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 120 2.00    
2  THE BIG CALHOUNA Oct26 Oct16 Sep19 Aug24 Jun27 (sweezey ke)GEROUX FLORENT 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  TANYA SHOWERS May31 May03 Apr04 Mar03 Feb17 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 3.50 30% 2.30    
4  SING A LITTLE SONG Oct09 Aug23 Jul07 Jun19 May03 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 4.00    
5  TRIAL Jun28 May31 Mar23 Feb21 Dec23 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
6  REAGAN'S FLAME Sep21 Aug24 Jul29 Jun28 May31 (schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 2.50 30% 2.30    
SCR  LADY MOSCATO Oct09 Aug31 Jul12 Jun28 May17 (lukas wa)ASMUSSEN J 118 10.00    
 
CD-6   11/06/2024 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROSENOW Sep20         (heitzman eric)ROCCO S 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  TRAP LINE Sep20 Aug26 Mar07 Jan20 Dec08 (vanden berg)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 4.00 68% 0.50    
3  MUNYHUNGRY Oct20 Oct06 Sep26 Aug18 Jul29 (parker donald )SAEZ GABRIEL 121 4.50 5% 19.00    
4  TIE BREAKER LENNIE Oct09 Jul13 Jun23 Jun05 Mar13 (romans dale)LANERIE J 121 12.00    
5  RAMESSES Sep28 Aug17 Jun30 May10 Mar23 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 3.00    
6  PHOTO OP Sep18 Aug19 Apr10 Mar22 Feb24 (hiles rick)BEJARANO R 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  STORMIN LOVE Sep28 Nov11 Oct14 Sep22 Aug27 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 121 6.00    
8  OPERATORE PAZZO Nov14 Sep29       (frazier matt)MONCADA IRVING 117 20.00    
SCR  PUCKSTER Sep22 Sep09 Jun23 May18 Feb29 (troiani niccol)JURADO EDDIE 121 20.00    
10  SATURDAY LONG LEGS Oct09 Aug27 Jul11 Jun20 May30 (frazier matt)CANNON DECLAN 124 5.00 7% 12.60    
11  RICKY'S BEST Sep22 Sep05 Aug15 Jul18 Jun29 (mitchell anthony)GRAHAM J 124 30.00    
 
CD-7   11/06/2024 3960ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 2 F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AUTUMN RHYTHM (GB) Oct10         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00 25% 3.10    
2  ROSATO Oct27 Sep13 Jun16     (ennis john)MONCADA IRVING 113 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  LA MARINERA Oct11 Sep28 Aug29 Aug16 Jul22 (fernandez k)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 15.00    
4  MASCARA Jul31         (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 120 4.50    
5  KENTUCKY SMOKESHOW Oct27 Sep15       (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 120 3.50 19% 4.40    
6  MEAN EILEEN Oct11 Sep08 Sep01 Aug08   (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.50 22% 3.50    
7  GRACE ON GRACE Sep21 Aug21 Aug10 Jun09 May27 (demeritte)LEPAROUX R 120 12.00    
8  GERLIN'S EMPIRE Sep26 Aug07 Jul13     (stewart dallas)ORTIZ L 120 4.00    
 
CD-8   11/06/2024 4950ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BANISHING Oct18 Aug24 Jun06 Apr19 Feb12 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 121 5.00    
2  LAMBETH Sep15 Aug06 Jun27 Dec31 Oct08 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 6.00 60% 0.70    
3  WEST SARATOGA Jun09 May04 Mar23 Feb10 Jan13 (demeritte)LEPAROUX R 118 4.00    
4  LUGAN KNIGHT Sep29 Aug12 Jun16 May03 Sep09 (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  BEN FRANKLIN Oct12 Sep15 May05 Apr21 Mar17 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  TWO EAGLES RIVER Oct19 Sep11 Jun30 May27 Sep20 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 4.50    
7  AWESOME AARON Sep26 Aug18 Aug03 Jun14 May27 (casse no)SANTANA JR 121 12.00 13% 6.80    
SCR  BANJO CHRIS Oct19 Sep18 Aug15 Jul27 Jun23 (wismer s)CEDILLO ABEL 118 12.00    
9  LIBERAL ARTS Apr13 Mar30 Feb03 Oct29 Sep16 (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50    
 
CD-9   11/06/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHAT'S HER NUMBER Oct11 Mar24 Feb16 Jan12 Dec09 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 122 3.50    
2  PINK MOON Feb21 Jan03       (navarrete an)MONCADA IRVING 115 15.00    
3  BELLA ESTRELA Aug17 Jul29 Jun27 Feb06   (wadsworth k)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 12.00    
4  YO LEVEN Oct16 Sep19 Aug18 Jul29 Jun20 (baker james)GRAHAM J 122 4.00 77% 0.30    
SCR  AIR FORCE THUNDER Sep29 Jul27 Jan15 Jan01 Nov12 (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 122 6.00    
6  REDHEADEDSTRANGER Oct19 Sep21 Aug31 Jul06 Jun09 (nesbitt amy)ORTIZ ALVIN 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  CAT'S SYMPHONY Oct17 Sep06 Aug17 Jul11 Jun04 (oliver vict)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  CLASSIC MYSTERY Oct11 Sep13 Jun08 May12 Nov16 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 5.00 ★    
9  DIA ESTELAR (ARG) Oct24 Sep19       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.