Handicappers' Racing Form

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Churchill Downs
Saturday - September 21, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (1/3/8/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-2   Win (3/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00
CD-3   Win (3/5/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-4   Win (8/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-5   Win (7/9/3/2/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00
CD-6   Win (2/6/9/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-7   Win (3/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-8   Win (5/2/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-9   Win (2/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00
CD-10   Win (12/9/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00
CD-11   Win (11/1/3/6/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
CD-1   09/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 F PT-12:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GRACE ON GRACE Aug21 Aug10 Jun09 May27 May10 (demeritte l)BEALMEAR C 112 3.50 38% 1.60    
SCR  HONEYBEEBOBBIE Aug25 Jul21       (gonzalez)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 119 30.00    
TAKE WINGS Aug12         (lynch a)NELSON TYRONE 119 8.00 23% 3.40    
MOM'S CHEESECAKE Sep04         (kerrick lacy)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00    
TON A LAUGHS         (anderson l)LANERIE J 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
SHE'S SINGLE AGAIN         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
SCR  LOVEBUG Aug10 Jul13 Jun09     (hamilton sarah)ELLIOTT JANE 119 8.00    
LA BUKANA Aug03 Jun28       (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 4.50 11% 8.40    
CO HEART         (mcgee paul)MONCADA IRVING 112 15.00    
10  MADAME MARKIEVICZ         (desormeaux kei)ASHTON GAVIN 119 20.00    
11  STREAKING Aug17 Jul21 Jun25 Jun04   (ennis john)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00    
SCR  SPLOTCH         (calhoun wil)TORRES A 119 8.00    
 
CD-2   09/21/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:17
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TIFFANY TWIST Aug04 Jun23 May05 Apr15 Mar04 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 5.00    
ROSIE'S HALO Aug17 Jun23 May16 Mar17 Dec30 (crichton rohan)VAZQUEZ A 122 2.50    
BEST SELLER Jul27 Jun15 May09 Apr10 Jun16 (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 64% 0.60    
DIVINELY BOLT Aug15 Aug03 Jul03 Jun05 May09 (simms jr)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
JUMP INTO THE FIRE Jul27 Apr30 Mar09 Aug11 May27 (cook b)CANNON DECLAN 122 5.00    
KLIMT'S MUSE Jul27 May23 May01 Aug05 Jul07 (humphries thomas)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.50    
 
CD-3   09/21/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:47
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
THE QUEENS JULES Aug08 Jun26 May10 Jan31 Oct19 (van thoma)MONCADA IRVING 115 12.00    
J. P. RACE Jul20 Jun12 May25 Apr07 Feb22 (amoss thomas)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00    
PAYNE Aug03 Jun22 Jun01 May04 Apr06 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 3.00 28% 2.50    
FRIAR LAURENCE Aug26 Aug12 Jun10 May25 Mar14 (garcia genaro)BARBOSA CARLOS 124 6.00    
SOGNO DI CAMPIONE (CHI) Aug18 Jul15 May30 Apr21 Mar21 (esquivel jes)CORRALES GERARDO 122 8.00 27% 2.70    
SCR  SUMMER SPLASH Aug12 Aug27 Jun18 Apr20 Feb21 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 2.50    
JACKMAN Jul31 Jul07 Jun07 May25 Apr16 (compton gre)TORRES A 122 6.00 21% 3.70    
BACKGROUND Aug18 Jun19 May18 May03 Jul15 (puhich mike)BOWEN ROCCO 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-4   09/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:17
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  AMERICAN STARLET Jul28 Jun08 May18 Apr27 Sep02 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 121 12.00    
OLGA May12 Apr13 Mar14 Feb11 Dec15 (blair jorda)TORRES A 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MIGHTY MADISON Sep01 Jul14 Jun05 May01 Nov26 (bauer philip )ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 1.80    
AUNT BECCA Mar02 Nov22 Oct12 Jun11 Apr22 (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00    
CHARRIERE Jul28 Jun26 May17 Mar23 Feb03 (mckeever andr)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 10.00 13% 6.50    
ALTERED SHOT Aug31 Jul22 Jun23 May23 Dec07 (esquivel jes)CORRALES GERARDO 121 15.00    
ERVADEAN Apr24 Mar02 Dec31 Nov10 Sep21 (stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 4.00    
PISTOL Jul22 Jun26 May26 Apr30 Apr06 (van tho)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 53% 0.90    
 
CD-5   09/21/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:48
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ROTHKO Jul20         (cox h)TORRES A 119 3.50    
ORTHO STAR Aug20         (granitz antho)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
STIGLETS Aug26 Jul20 Jun23     (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 5.00 7% 14.40    
WINNING FORTUNE         (mcpeek kenn)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00    
CASH THE MONEY         (casse mark)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
SCR  START TO WIN Aug24         (devaux cherie)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 10.00    
HEAVENVILLE Aug26 Jul27       (asmussen steven)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 4.50 34% 2.00    
LIMITED EDITION         (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
SPEECHLESS Aug24         (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 33% 2.10    
10  SCOTCH CHOCOLATE Jul25         (amoss m)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
11  BIG WALK Aug24         (lukas wayne)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00    
12  KNOCK KNOCK JOKE Aug24 Jul13       (orseno f)BEJARANO R 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
13  HASTEN Aug17         (simms jr)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 20.00    
 
CD-6   09/21/2024 3630ft DIRT RC10 Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:21
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SHIRL'S BEE Aug05 Nov04 Sep23     (ward wesley )CORRALES GERARDO 121 5.00    
PAY ZONE Jul28 Jul05 Jun22 Feb29 Jan18 (crichton roha)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 4.00 36% 1.80    
ONE GIANT LEAP Aug19 Jun07 Apr26 Nov10 Oct12 (hartman chr)BEALMEAR C 114 3.50    
CAPER'S HOOLEY Mar13 Jun17       (amoss thoma)TORRES A 118 15.00    
SCR  SILVER HALO May17 Feb24 Jan27     (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
JUSTIFREAK Aug04 Jun30 Mar20 Feb17 Dec23 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 16% 5.10    
TRIPLE TREA Jan18 Dec23 Aug20 Jul15 Jun04 (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
TEXAS TOWN Aug05 Feb11 Dec08     (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
ALDER May26 Mar24 Jan18 Dec22 Oct07 (maker j)VAZQUEZ A 118 5.00 14% 6.30    
 
CD-7   09/21/2024 6270ft DIRT RC11 Bourbon Flight Purse ($300K) 3 ALL PT- 3:53
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NEXT LEVEL Aug24 Jul06 Jun09 May10 Mar23 (desormeaux j)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
ELEPHANTS EAR Jul19 Jun30 Jun09 May04 Apr06 (mcpeek kenn)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
BATTEN DOWN Aug24 Jul27 Jun22 Apr30 Apr06 (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 1.20 47% 1.10    
MUGATU Aug24 Aug04 Jul06 May18 Apr06 (engler jeff)VAZQUEZ A 118 15.00    
REAL MACHO Aug11 Jul05 May18 Mar30 Mar02 (crichton roh)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
HADES Aug11 Jul06 Jun15 Apr13 Mar30 (orseno f)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.50 25% 3.00    
 
CD-8   09/21/2024 4620ft DIRT RC12 Fasig-Tipton Dogwood Purse ($300K) 3 F PT- 4:25
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
UPHILL DANCE Jul27 Jun22 Nov04 Oct15 Sep22 (mott william)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
FIBBER Aug11 Jun28 May25 May11 Apr05 (hartman chris)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 3.00 25% 3.00    
REAGAN'S FLAME Aug24 Jul29 Jun28 May31 Mar20 (schultz lin)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
SCR  CAP CLASSIQUE Aug11 Jul08 Jun16 May17 Dec30 (russell brittany )LANERIE J 118 12.00    
MY MANE SQUEEZE Aug23 Aug03 Jun07 May03 Mar30 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 33% 2.00    
NEOM BEACH Jul13 May31 Apr20 Mar29 Feb24 (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 10.00    
MANAMA GOLD Jul20 Jun06       (pletcher a)VAZQUEZ A 120 6.00    
LEGADEMA Jun09 May11 Apr05 Feb02 Dec23 (bauer philip)CORRALES GERARDO 120 8.00 10% 9.20    
HALINA'S FORTE Aug10 Jul04 May31 May03 Apr05 (bauer philip )ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 4.50    
 
CD-9   09/21/2024 4620ft DIRT RC11 Harrods Creek Purse ($300K) 3 ALL PT- 4:58
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JEFFERSON STREET Aug24 Jul26 Jun07 May04 Apr11 (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 2.50    
VALENTINE CANDY Aug23 Jul26 Jun08 Apr27 Mar23 (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 3.00 42% 1.40    
HENRO Aug04 Jul06 Jun05 May05 Apr05 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
WILLY D'S Jul28 Jul08 Jun15 May23 May05 (compton gre)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
SCR  ALWAYSINTOMISCHIEF Aug10 Jun02 May10 Apr13 Mar08 (foster er)DE CRUZ 118 20.00    
ILLUMINARE Jul13 Jun07       (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 34% 1.90    
DILGER (IRE) Aug23 Jul20 Apr13 Mar16 Feb17 (joseph saffi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
 
CD-10   09/21/2024 5610ft DIRT RC11 Seneca Overnight Purse ($175K) 3 F PT- 5:29
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MIDSHIPMAN'S DANCE Apr20 Feb24 Jan13 Dec16   (mcpeek kenn)HERNANDEZ J 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  EVERLAND Aug25 Aug04 Jul13 Jun01 May03 (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 118 8.00    
SCR  DAZZLING MOVE Aug11 Jul12 Jun01 May04 Mar06 (trombetta mic)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 30.00    
LITTLE JAMIE Jul27 Jul06 Jun01 May03 Apr07 (medina rober)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
NEON ICON Aug17 Jul06 May23 Apr17   (arnold geor)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00    
SCR  JUST BE QUIET Aug24 Jul06 Jun13 May16 Apr17 (gorham ro)DE CRUZ 118 30.00    
HERE'S THE SPIDER Aug30 Aug26 Aug10 Jun29 Jun07 (fernandez edward)VAZQUEZ A 118 30.00    
CHATALAS Aug17 Jul06 Dec29 Dec09 Nov03 (forster t)LANERIE J 122 4.50    
LIFE TALK Apr06 Feb10 Dec02 Nov03 Oct07 (pletcher todd)ALVARADO JUNIOR 122 5.00 23% 3.40    
10  HOME GAME Aug17 Jul05 May30     (morey willia)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
SCR  ALPINE PRINCESS Mar23 Feb17 Dec23 Nov26 Oct06 (cox h)TORRES A 118 6.00    
12  MISS JUSTIFY Aug17 Jul12 Jun01 Mar15 Nov11 (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 49% 1.10    
SCR  LETSTALKABOUTME Sep20 Jul29 Jun15 May18 Apr07 (green troy)BEJARANO R 118 30.00    
 
CD-11   09/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:01
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CRUISE MISSILE Feb24 Dec09 Nov02 Aug19 Jun16 (mcpeek kenn)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.50 17% 4.80    
PAHOEHOE D'ORO         (damato philip)GARCIA MARTIN 121 6.00    
JUST A COED Dec31 Nov25 Nov02     (calhoun will)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 4.00 12% 7.00    
MILVEN Sep01         (hill f)CANNON DECLAN 124 15.00    
SANG Aug31 Jul20 Jun26 Jun05   (begley greg)DOYLE SOPHIE 121 5.00    
GO PURPLE Aug26 Aug05       (ortiz alexan)VAZQUEZ A 121 10.00 10% 9.20    
CAPTIVE HEART         (catalano wayne)MONCADA IRVING 114 20.00    
PRETTY PERTINENT Jul13         (miller darr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
PALMILLA'S BET Aug23 Jul20 Jun28 Jun19 Apr14 (cambray andres)HEBERT LINDSEY 121 20.00    
10  TAKA         (von d)TORRES A 121 20.00    
11  UNDERCOVER Aug26 Jul16 Jun17     (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 38% 1.60    
12  DANCING PRINCESS Aug05 Jul06 Nov12 Oct29 Sep27 (spicer t)JURADO EDDIE 121 15.00    
SCR  FLAT STORMIN         (shirer a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 15.00    
SCR  BARBANERA         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 8.00    
SCR  PERFORMABILITY Aug26 Aug05       (williamson b)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 10.00    
SCR  UNO LE Nov23         (barrett rod)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 5.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.