Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Belmont At The Big A
Thursday - September 19, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
BAQ-1   WIN (3/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/1)-(3/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/1)-(3/6/1)-(3/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/1)-(6/1/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/6/1)-(6/1/2/3)-(1/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
BAQ-2   WIN (6/1/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/2/3)-(6/1/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/2/3)-(6/1/2/3)-(6/1/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/1/2/3)-(1/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/1/2/3)-(1/4)-(1/8/3/7/6) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
BAQ-3   WIN (1/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/4)-(1/2/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4)-(1/2/4/3)-(1/2/4/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (1/4)-(1/8/3/7/6) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (1/4)-(1/8/3/7/6)-(9/4/6/3) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
BAQ-4   WIN (1/8/3/7/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/8/3/7/6)-(1/8/3/7/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/8/3/7/6)-(1/8/3/7/6)-(1/8/3/7/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/8/3/7/6)-(9/4/6/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/8/3/7/6)-(9/4/6/3)-(9/8/2/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
BAQ-5   WIN (9/4/6/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/4/6/3)-(9/4/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/4/6/3)-(9/4/6/3)-(9/4/6/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/4/6/3)-(9/8/2/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (9/4/6/3)-(9/8/2/4)-(6/2/5/4/7) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
BAQ-6   WIN (9/8/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/8/2/4)-(9/8/2/3/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (9/8/2/4)-(9/8/2/3/4)-(9/8/2/3/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (9/8/2/4)-(6/2/5/4/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (9/8/2/4)-(6/2/5/4/7)-(8/5/6/9) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
BAQ-7   WIN (6/2/5/4/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/2/5/4/7)-(6/2/5/4/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/2/5/4/7)-(6/2/5/4/7)-(6/2/5/4/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/2/5/4/7)-(8/5/6/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/2/5/4/7)-(8/5/6/9)-(6/5/10/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
BAQ-8   WIN (8/5/6/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/5/6/9)-(8/5/6/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/5/6/9)-(8/5/6/9)-(8/5/6/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/5/6/9)-(6/5/10/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
BAQ-9   WIN (6/5/10/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/5/10/3)-(6/5/10/7/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/5/10/3)-(6/5/10/7/3)-(6/5/10/7/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
BAQ-1   09/19/2024 13200ft TURF RC14 FIRM Lonesome Glory Purse ($150K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIDDEN PATH Aug28 Mar30 Oct08 Sep07 Aug05 (hendriks r)BESWICK HARRISON 140 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of LOTS O' LEX by KITALPHA)
SCR  WESTERLAND (GB) Aug28 Aug01 Jul18 Jul11   (neilson kath)DALTON BERNARD 140 20.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
3  EVIE'S PRINCE Aug28 Aug01 Sep04 May07 Feb26 (morris neil )WATTERS GRAHAM 144 4.50 36% 1.80    
  (by ANIMAL KINGDOM out of OWL MOON by GHOSTZAPPER)
SCR  WELSHMAN Jul19 Nov05 Oct08 Sep05 Aug22 (fisher r)BARGARY JAMIE 152 4.00    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of UNFORGIVING by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
5  GOING COUNTRY (IRE) Aug14 Jul21 Oct22 Sep15 Aug17 (brion keri)HENDRIKS PARKER 146 6.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of FRANKLY NATIVE by BE MY NATIVE)
6  FREDDY FLINTSHIRE Jul21 Jun20 Jul19 Sep01 Jul27 (brion keri)MULQUEEN STEPHEN 154 3.00 26% 2.90    
  (by UNKNOWN out of AMURMAR by GALILEO (ARG))
7  L'IMPERATOR (FR) Sep07 Jul21 Jun20 Mar30 Sep14 (kingsley ar)GALLIGAN GERARD 158 1.80    
  (by UNKNOWN out of LA JOIE by MONTJEU (IRE))
 
BAQ-2   09/19/2024 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:38
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DURANTE Aug29 Aug11 May11 May04 Jan27 (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 121 3.00 16% 5.40    
1A  STAGE LEFT Aug28 Mar02 Feb03 Dec30 Dec23 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 121 3.00 ★    
2  SHERIFF BIANCO Aug18 Aug08 Jun29 Jun09 May02 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 121 4.50 15% 5.50    
3  RUNNINSONOFAGUN Aug22 Jul26 Jun29 May26 Apr20 (toscano t)ROSARIO JOEL 121 8.00 7% 13.20    
4  LITTLE VIC Aug22 Jul28 May27 Mar23 Feb10 (avila ca)ORTIZ JR 123 6.00    
5  TWENTY FOUR MAMBA Jun08 May11 Apr13 Mar02 Jan12 (baker charlton)DAVIS DYLAN 123 4.00    
6  FACTUALLY CORRECT Aug08 Jul26 Jun29 May10 Apr05 (rodriguez rudy)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 2.50 35% 1.90    
7  DISARMED Aug10 Jun09 May17 Apr04 Mar03 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 123 8.00    
 
BAQ-3   09/19/2024 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:09
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAKE YOUR SEATS (IRE) May26 Mar10 Jan21     (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 120 0.60    
  (by TOO DARN HOT out of TARAYEF by TEOFILO)
1A  PASSIVE MANAGEMENT (GB) Aug08 Jul12       (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 0.60 71% 0.40    
  (by UNKNOWN out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  STOP THE PRESS Sep02 Aug08 Jun22 May26 Apr06 (mcgaughey cla)VELAZQUEZ R 120 6.00 ★    
  (by UNCLE MO out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
3  GUN BARREL CITY         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 120 2.00 ★    
  (by FRANKEL out of MRS MCDOUGAL by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
4  MR FLOWERS Aug29 Jul27 Jul06 Jun16 May17 (de horacio)DAVIS DYLAN 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of MISSOURIA by BELLAMY ROAD)
5  PARTY WITH SMARTY Sep02 Apr21 Apr11 Mar09 Feb01 (gutierrez jam)IORIO MELISSA 124 20.00    
  (by SMARTY JONES out of GHOST MAGI by GHOSTZAPPER)
6  LCGOLUCKY Sep01 Jun21 Jun06 May10   (ferraro)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 113 50.00    
  (by BREAKING LUCKY out of ZAPLICIOUS by GHOSTZAPPER)
7  FIRST TRUMPET Sep02 Aug05 May10 Apr21 Apr05 (delauro )GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 50.00    
  (by CARPE DIEM out of APPEALING IVY by MINESHAFT)
 
BAQ-4   09/19/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($65K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CELESTIAL GLAZE Aug04 Jul13 Jun22 May18 Feb29 (rodriguez rudy)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 5.00 32% 2.10    
1A  KHAFRE Jul26 Jun27 May18 Apr07 Mar07 (rodriguez )RIVERA R 122 5.00    
2  BARESE Aug25 Aug01 May09 Dec29 Dec03 (kantarmaci il)FRANCO MANUEL 122 10.00    
SCR  MAGNOLIA MIDNIGHT Aug21 Jul25 Jun30 May04 Mar30 (kantarmaci ilk)LEZCANO JOSE 122 10.00    
3  ST ANDREWS Aug21 Aug01 Jun28 May05 Mar17 (noda orlando)ROSARIO JOEL 122 4.00 17% 5.10    
4  ROCCO STRONG Aug18 Aug01 Jul11 Jun07 Apr28 (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 124 6.00    
5  SKYLANDER Aug18 Jul19 Jun21 May25 Apr06 (atras rob)ORTIZ JR 122 4.50    
6  PERFECT FLIGHT Jul27 Jun19 May31 Apr12 Mar17 (shivmang)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
7  EMPTY TOMB Jul11 May03 Jun17 May14 Mar30 (falcone robert )CARMOUCHE K 122 5.00 6% 15.20    
8  NIMITZ CLASS Aug15 May03 Mar16 Feb17 Jan27 (weaver george)SILVERA RUBEN 122 3.50 22% 3.60    
9  ALTERNATE REALITY Jul20 Jul12 Jul05 May19 Mar30 (chatterpaul nai)CANCEL ERIC 124 15.00    
 
BAQ-5   09/19/2024 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($65K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCESS BECCA Aug23 Jul18 Jun20 Oct20   (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 118 3.00    
SCR  LA VITA SOFIA Aug07 Jul21 Jun14 May16 Jul22 (rodriguez rudy)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 3.50    
3  MOONLIT WEEKEND Aug07 Jun27 May17 Apr25 Mar21 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  BOBBY JEAN Aug16 Jul17 Aug10     (hennig mark)VELAZQUEZ R 120 4.50 17% 4.80    
5  ELLIPTIC (IRE) Aug23 Aug03 Jun15 May16 Apr21 (morey e)DAVIS DYLAN 124 4.00    
6  DUCKPHAT Aug29 Jul24 May24 Apr18 Mar24 (corrao james)LUZZI J 122 12.00 7% 13.90    
7  THORNY Aug23 Jul21 Jun22 May30 Apr26 (antonu)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 30.00    
8  DESTINE TO RACE Aug16 Jul15 Jun02 May05 Apr13 (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 122 6.00    
9  SAVE US MELANIA Aug11 May30 Mar13 Feb14 Nov18 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 118 8.00 47% 1.10    
 
BAQ-6   09/19/2024 3960ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JIM BOB         (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 121 8.00    
2  MAZZEI Aug11 Jul20 May26 Apr26   (bond kevin)ROSARIO JOEL 121 6.00 11% 7.80    
3  PRICE IS TRUTH Jun29 Jun22 Apr04 Nov04 Oct04 (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 121 5.00 ★    
4  BRACA Aug16 Jul31 Jul18 Jun27 Jan06 (barrer)GRISALES DANILO 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  SEVENTH RACE SHAKE Jul26 Dec29       (englehart )RIVERA R 121 20.00    
6  AWESOME FORCE Jul05 Jun09 Jul01 May19 May06 (diprima gregor)LUZZI J 124 15.00    
7  STARSINTHECITY Aug25 Jul19 Dec17 Nov02 Oct12 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 118 6.00    
8  EGYPTIAN QUEST Jul31 Jul04 Dec05 Oct27 Oct12 (crook-demasi )ORTIZ JR 124 2.50 23% 3.30    
9  MY LIFE STORY Aug28 Jul25 Jun14 May03 Mar30 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 121 3.00 39% 1.60    
SCR  BIG EGO Aug28 Jun09 May11 Mar24 Feb11 (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 121 2.00    
 
BAQ-7   09/19/2024 5610ft TURF RC6 FIRM Optional Claiming ($50K) Purse ($65K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MR. MENDELSSOHN Aug31 Jun07 Apr20 Mar29 Mar03 (toscano t)LUZZI J 122 20.00    
2  FRONT MAN Aug24 Jul12 Jun29 May26 Nov18 (kantarmaci ilk)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 8.00 28% 2.50    
3  GHOSTLYPRINCE Aug02 Jul06 Jun29 May18 Apr26 (rodrig)GRISALES DANILO 122 12.00    
4  FEATHERS ROAD Aug14 Jul13 May26 May18 Sep28 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  MODICA Aug04 May23 Apr26 Mar07 Jan31 (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 118 8.00 12% 7.00    
6  OUR COUNTRY Jul12 Sep14 Aug10 Jul14 May11 (hennig mark)ROSARIO JOEL 122 6.00 32% 2.10    
7  MORE VINO Aug21 Jun23 Mar10     (gober)HERNANDEZ OMAR 120 30.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  YOUR MISSION Aug24 Jul14 Jun22 May25 Nov04 (bernardini ju)SILVERA RUBEN 122 30.00    
9  HEATHGUARD Jul12 Jun29 Apr27 Mar30 Dec01 (lerman roy)RIVERA R 122 15.00    
10  BORN DANCER Aug23 Jul21 Jun21 May24 Nov10 (nevin michelle)CARMOUCHE K 122 2.00    
11  KICK A BUCK Aug31 Aug04 Jun15 Apr21 Feb10 (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 118 4.50    
12  SCAT TU TAP Aug23 Jul24 Jul04 May25 Apr13 (abreu fernando)DAVIS DYLAN 122 12.00    
13  SUGAR GRAY LEONARD Sep01 Jul13 Jun16 May17 Apr21 (sciacca gary)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 15.00    
SCR  ANDY CANT Aug16 Jul06 Jun28 May18 Apr25 (barrera s)RIDER TBA 122 6.00    
SCR  TREATY OBLIGATION Aug24 Jun30 May16 Jul21 Jun22 (rice linda)RIDER TBA 122 2.50    
SCR  EMIRATES ROAD Aug30 Aug02 Jun29 May27 Feb02 (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 124 1.60    
 
BAQ-8   09/19/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($80K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG HAZEL Aug02 Jul25 Jul07 May16 Apr25 (donk david)RIVERA R 121 15.00    
2  FIRST CLASS CAT Jul18 Jun30 Jun20 May24 Apr25 (rice linda)PRAT FLAVIEN 121 6.00    
3  STARRY MIDNIGHT Sep02 Jul24 Jul11 Jun13 Apr28 (ferraro james )LUZZI J 121 50.00    
4  FABULOUS FOX Aug23 Jul28 Jun21 Jan06 Dec09 (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 120 6.00    
5  A MAIZE ZING DOTIE Aug18 Jul22 Jun17 May20 Nov08 (englehart chr)ORTIZ JR 123 3.50 20% 4.10    
6  FLIGHT CONTROL Jan14 Dec01       (klesaris rober)LEZCANO JOSE 118 4.50 16% 5.20    
SCR  BETTER HUMOR ME Aug18 Jul25 Dec15 Nov25 Oct12 (baker charlton)CARMOUCHE K 121 3.00    
8  MYBRONXBABY Aug23 Jul17 Jun18 May21 May06 (ryerson)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 113 5.00 42% 1.40    
9  CAROL T Aug02 Jul07 Jun09 May11 Jan14 (jimenez )GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
BAQ-9   09/19/2024 3960ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 2 F PT- 5:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BANNER EIGHTEEN (FR)         (mott william )VELAZQUEZ R 119 15.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  PANACHE Jul21 Jun21       (devaux cherie)ROSARIO JOEL 119 10.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of MOJO MAMA by TAPITURE)
3  BOSSY PANTS Jul14 Jun14       (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of QUEEN MUM by PAYNTER)
4  MIRIAM'S FIRE (GB)         (maker j)DAVIS DYLAN 119 12.00    
  (by SHOWCASING out of LIGHT MY FIRE by DRAGON PULSE)
5  BOURBON MILK PUNCH Aug31         (sisterson jack)LEZCANO JOSE 119 2.50 20% 4.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of COMPELLED by WAR FRONT)
6  EVERY VOTE COUNTS (GB)         (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 4.50 34% 2.00    
  (by PINATUBO out of SPARKLE ROLL by KINGMAN)
7  SILENT DREAMER         (clement chris)FRANCO MANUEL 119 5.00 ★    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of CELESTINE by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  SPORTING LADY Aug29 Aug03       (devaux cherie)CARMOUCHE K 119 8.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of SECURELY by UNCLE MO)
9  YESTERDAY (IRE) Jul21         (weaver george)ORTIZ JR 119 6.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of ESSENTIAL ROSE by BERNARDINI)
SCR  PRETTY LIZA Aug28         (rodriguez)DETTORI LANFRANCO 119 10.00 20% 4.10    
  (by KANTHAROS out of AMURMAR by GALILEO (ARG))
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.