Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - September 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/3/9/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/9/4)-(2/3/9/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/9/4)-(2/3/9/4)-(2/3/9/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/3/9/4)-(5/4/6/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/3/9/4)-(5/4/6/9)-(6/9/10/1/8) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/4/6/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/6/9)-(5/4/6/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/6/9)-(5/4/6/9)-(5/4/6/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/6/9)-(6/9/10/1/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/4/6/9)-(6/9/10/1/8)-(4/6/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (6/9/10/1/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/9/10/1/8)-(6/9/10/1/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/9/10/1/8)-(6/9/10/1/8)-(6/9/10/1/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/9/10/1/8)-(4/6/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/9/10/1/8)-(4/6/3)-(9/4/2) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/3)-(4/6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/3)-(4/6/3)-(4/6/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/3)-(9/4/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/6/3)-(9/4/2)-(1/10/7/8/3) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-5   WIN (9/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/4/2)-(9/4/3/8/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/4/2)-(9/4/3/8/2)-(9/4/3/8/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (9/4/2)-(1/10/7/8/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (9/4/2)-(1/10/7/8/3)-(13/9/2) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-6   WIN (1/10/7/8/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/10/7/8/3)-(1/10/7/8/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/10/7/8/3)-(1/10/7/8/3)-(1/10/7/8/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/10/7/8/3)-(13/9/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/10/7/8/3)-(13/9/2)-(9/10/3/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-7   WIN (13/9/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (13/9/2)-(13/9/3/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (13/9/2)-(13/9/3/7/2)-(13/9/3/7/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (13/9/2)-(9/10/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-8   WIN (9/10/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/10/3/5)-(9/10/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/10/3/5)-(9/10/3/5)-(9/10/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BETTE DAVIS         (tomlinson mich)ASHTON GAVIN 119 15.00    
2  SCRUPULOUS Aug19         (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.00 47% 1.10    
3  WHATTA WORLD Aug20 Jul01 Jun15 Apr26   (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 2.50 24% 3.20    
4  LOVEYA LOVEYA MORE         (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  INTERCEPTION         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
6  HUSH IT HONEY         (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00    
7  END OF INNOCENCE Aug02 Jun16       (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
8  SUMMER DANCE Aug12         (hamilton sa)PETERSON FERRIN 119 10.00    
9  NO VIOLENCE         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 5.00 8% 12.10    
 
CD-2   09/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WAUHATCHIE         (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 119 15.00    
  (by ANCHOR DOWN out of NEVER TOOMANY GEMS by GEMOLOGIST)
2  DON'T STOP         (simms jr)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of STOP AND STARE by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
3  HOPE JOE'S RIGHT         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
  (by KLIMT out of TIZJET by TIZNOW)
4  SKYPASS Sep05         (gorham robert )MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00 26% 2.80    
  (by SKY MESA out of K'S BAR BEE by PRIDE OF BURKAAN)
5  ASTRONOMICO Aug12 Jul20 Jun24 Jun04   (gutierrez)TORRES A 119 2.00 44% 1.30    
  (by UNKNOWN out of GREEN WATERS by ARCH)
6  TIZ MY HERO Jul15 Jun24 Jun04     (vance d)LANERIE J 119 5.00 8% 11.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of TIZ MY LADY by TIZNOW)
SCR  SPIN THE BOULEVARD         (vanden britt)EMIGH A 119 8.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of OCEAN BOULEVARD by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
8  MONEYSHOT Aug05         (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00    
  (by FROSTED out of COOL BEANS by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
9  LEAD FOOT Aug13 Jul21 Jul01     (hamilton sarah)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of LILY'S GIRL by MARIA'S MON)
 
CD-3   09/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CANDY LANDY Aug01         (arnold george)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00 5% 18.30    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of CHECKERED PAST by PASS CATCHER)
2  FLOORED Aug18         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
  (by CURLIN out of BAFFLED by DISTORTED HUMOR)
3  BABE IN THE WOODS Aug26         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of SLANT OF LIGHT by BROKEN VOW)
4  AUSTIN TRAFFIC         (mott i)ELLIOTT JANE 119 15.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of TAITTINGER ROSE by MENIFEE)
5  WEST OMAHA         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00    
  (by WEST COAST out of BIRTHDAY BASH by SWING AND MISS)
6  CONTROLLED TEMPER Aug18         (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 27% 2.60    
  (by COLLECTED out of MOON MEETING TOO by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  CORKAGE FEE         (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 114 20.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of HASSLER by WAR FRONT)
8  CLASS ACT         (pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of MISS DRAKE by AFLEET ALEX)
9  FUNDAMENTALLY Aug05         (brown cha)TORRES A 119 5.00 25% 3.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of IMPRINT by QUALITY ROAD)
10  MUGEN Jul30         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 3.00 22% 3.60    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of PAOLA QUEEN by FLATTER)
11  LITTLE MISS PRISS Jul31         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of MISSISSIPPI QUEEN by DIXIELAND BAND)
 
CD-4   09/21/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($75K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUCH SOUNDS Jul26 May18 Apr28 Mar23 Feb25 (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 122 4.00    
2  SANDRA D Aug05 Jul08 Jun13 Apr23 Mar25 (margolis stephe)COHEN DAVID 118 8.00    
3  SAD CAFE Aug16 Jul08       (drury jr)LANERIE J 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  MYTOWN MYRULES Apr14 Mar11 Feb12 Jan12   (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 3.00 41% 1.50    
SCR  I FEEL THE NEED Jul22 Jun16 Apr28 Apr15 Mar30 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 6.00    
6  AIN'T BROKE Aug18 Jul22 Jun25 Jun02 Apr27 (calhoun w)TORRES A 122 2.50 31% 2.20    
7  STEEL RACER Jul23 Jun29 Jun11 Sep29   (medina rob)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00    
8  THESTRAL Aug16 Jul20 Feb08 Jan13 Nov17 (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
 
CD-5   09/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS HARMONIC         (forster t)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of SPEED SEEKER by HEATSEEKER (IRE))
2  DAZZLIN' DICTATOR         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of HOLLIDAZZLE by TIZNOW)
3  AMY Z         (von don)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00 ★    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of OVERLY INDULGENT by PLEASANTLY PERFECT)
4  PERFECT SHOT         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 4.00 26% 2.90    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of MEISTER LEGEND by BODEMEISTER)
5  MAGIC GATHERING         (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of GLEANING by HARD SPUN)
6  AMERICA'S VOW Aug06         (hamm timot)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of CLOUDY VOW by BROKEN VOW)
7  NANDINA         (medina ro)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of SPINNERET by MINER'S MARK)
8  FLIGHT TO PARIS         (arnold ge)TORRES A 119 8.00 ★    
  (by UNKNOWN out of FLY TO THE STARS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
9  GIN GIN Aug08         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 53% 0.90    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of BEFORE YOU KNOW IT by HARD SPUN)
10  MONTCLAIR ROAD         (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of DOTHRAKI QUEEN by PURE PRIZE)
11  PLATINUM MINIT Aug20         (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by GIVEMEAMINIT out of PLATINUM LADY by IRON RULER (IRE))
12  CARARRA Aug26         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of SEACRETTINA by SEA OF SECRETS)
 
CD-6   09/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HUNTRESS FOR HIRE Jul22 May05 Feb18 Jan07   (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.50 32% 2.10    
2  ERVADEAN Aug01 Jun24 May27 May05 Mar25 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 20.00    
3  PISTOL Aug26 Jul15 May14 Apr22 Mar24 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 4.50 5% 17.90    
4  TEN RINGS Mar09 Feb08 Dec29 Aug07 Jul03 (engler jeff)LANERIE J 121 20.00    
5  IN COLOR Jun24 May12 Mar31 Mar05 Dec21 (d'amato phili)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00    
6  SECRET STATEMENT May05 Apr07 Mar02 Dec31 Nov24 (baker jam)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
7  CANCEL THIS Aug14 Jul15 Jun18 May25 Nov27 (stidham mi)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00 9% 10.30    
8  LITTLE MOMBO Jul19 Jun18 Jun12 May26 Apr07 (bauer phil)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 8.00 7% 13.30    
9  VARMLANDER Feb25 Jan22 Dec15     (sharp joe)GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
10  HIGH CLASS Aug26 Jul09 Nov23 Oct30 Sep25 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 4.00 19% 4.20    
11  THE GREAT MAYBE Nov26 Oct02 Aug28     (devaux che)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50    
12  NEED SOME MONEY Aug16 Jul13 Jun01 May20 Apr28 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
SCR  LAKESIDE MUSIC Jun29         (spicer james )LEBRON VICTOR 118 20.00    
 
CD-7   09/21/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MR. BIG NEWS Aug28 Jul30 Jul01     (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 20.00    
2  SANTOS DUMONT Aug05 Jun30 May27 Jul04 Jun04 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  DECISION MAKER Aug20 Jun11 May03 Mar26 Mar04 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 122 4.50 ★    
4  ETHICAL JUDGEMENT Aug20 Jul15 Nov13 Oct20 Sep28 (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 122 10.00    
5  PROMISE KEEPER Jul08 Jun11 May06 Aug20 May13 (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00    
SCR  PROTONIC POWER Aug16 Jul26 Jun15 May21 Apr16 (hernandez armando)EMIGH A 122 30.00    
7  GASOLINE Feb19 Jan05 Dec02 Sep29 Aug28 (pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 122 6.00 ★    
8  GROUP EIGHTEEN Aug12 Jul21 Jun22 May19 Apr19 (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00    
9  MASQUEPARADE Aug06 Jul08 Jun03 May06 Aug04 (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 122 5.00 25% 3.00    
10  KING'S OVATION Aug12 Jul23 Jun11 May18 Apr23 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 6.00    
11  GALT Aug03 May28 Apr29 Mar12 Jun03 (lobo paul)TORRES A 122 6.00    
SCR  ROMAN CENTURIAN Sep03 Aug12 Jul23 Jun22 Jun04 (hamilton sara)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 12.00    
13  SPEED BIAS Aug18 Jul21 Jul01 May19 Apr22 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 53% 0.90    
 
CD-8   09/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SAHALAT Aug19         (pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 124 6.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of DASHING DEBBY by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
2  DESERT WOLF Aug28 Nov26 Oct30 Oct01 Sep03 (castillo rich)GARCIA MARTIN 120 20.00    
  (by PROTONICO out of BE PROUD by PROUD CITIZEN)
3  MO FIGHT Aug26 Jul02       (casse no)SANTANA JR 120 3.00 9% 9.70    
  (by UNCLE MO out of CAT FIGHT by FIT TO FIGHT)
4  SHOWDOWN KING Jul30         (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 120 12.00    
  (by MINESHAFT out of B ROCKETT by AFTER MARKET)
5  SPIELMAN Aug19 Nov26 Oct30 Oct01 Aug21 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of SASSY IMAGE by BROKEN VOW)
6  HERO'S MEDAL Aug11 Jul14 Jun25 May02 Mar26 (stall albert)TORRES A 115 8.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of MAGICAL MOON by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  BUBBA CAN DANCE Aug08 Jan22 Dec31     (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 30.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of OF ONE HEART by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
8  SINGLE DOT YAHT Jul16 Jun11 Sep21     (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of ROTE by TIZNOW)
9  CONCERTED Aug05 Jun04 Jun05     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 124 3.50 48% 1.10    
  (by HARD SPUN out of COLLECTIVE by CHARISMATIC)
10  CREATE TROUBLE Jul21 Jun11 Oct30 Sep17   (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 5.00 15% 5.80    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of NO CURFEW by UNACCOUNTED FOR)
SCR  MO SCAT         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 120 20.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of GIADA VEGAS by SCAT DADDY)
12  ARCHIE THE GIZA Aug01 May28 May04     (medina ro)TORRES A 124 15.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of GLORIA S by TAPIT)
SCR  PERFECT UPSTART May11 Mar10 Jan13 Nov16 Sep21 (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 120 20.00    
  (by UPSTART out of PERFECT SISTER by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.