Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Thursday - June 22, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (1/4/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/8/7)-(1/4/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/8/7)-(1/4/8/7)-(1/4/8/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/4/8/7)-(8/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/4/8/7)-(8/6/5)-(5/2/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ELP-2   WIN (8/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/6/5)-(8/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/6/5)-(8/6/5)-(8/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/6/5)-(5/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/6/5)-(5/2/4)-(5/9/6/1/4) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
ELP-3   WIN (5/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/4)-(5/2/4)-(5/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/4)-(5/9/6/1/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/2/4)-(5/9/6/1/4)-(6/2/1/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-4   WIN (5/9/6/1/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/9/6/1/4)-(5/9/6/1/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/9/6/1/4)-(5/9/6/1/4)-(5/9/6/1/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/9/6/1/4)-(6/2/1/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/9/6/1/4)-(6/2/1/5)-(6/2/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-5   WIN (6/2/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/1/5)-(6/2/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/1/5)-(6/2/1/5)-(6/2/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/1/5)-(6/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/2/1/5)-(6/2/3)-(1/2/5/9/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ELP-6   WIN (6/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/3)-(6/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/3)-(6/2/3)-(6/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/2/3)-(1/2/5/9/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/2/3)-(1/2/5/9/3)-(7/6/4/2/9) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
ELP-7   WIN (1/2/5/9/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/2/5/9/3)-(1/2/5/9/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/2/5/9/3)-(1/2/5/9/3)-(1/2/5/9/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/2/5/9/3)-(7/6/4/2/9) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (1/2/5/9/3)-(7/6/4/2/9)-(11/8/9/10/7) 125 $1.00 $125 
ELP-8   WIN (7/6/4/2/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/6/4/2/9)-(7/6/4/2/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/6/4/2/9)-(7/6/4/2/9)-(7/6/4/2/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/6/4/2/9)-(11/8/9/10/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
ELP-9   WIN (11/8/9/10/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/8/9/10/7)-(11/8/9/10/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/8/9/10/7)-(11/8/9/10/7)-(11/8/9/10/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   06/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KING OF KENTUCKY May21 Apr28 Mar25 Mar10 Feb03 (combs bentley)GARCIA MARTIN 118 1.80 26% 2.90    
2  CAMP GRAY Feb23         (foley greg)CHUAN MARTIN 118 8.00    
3  VALUABLE CARGO Apr27 Jan06       (miller jer)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00    
4  SCOTCH NO ROCKS Jun10 May21 Apr29 Feb17 Feb04 (roberson )HERNANDEZ J 124 5.00 25% 3.00    
5  COUSIN ODELL May21         (wong jonath)NAVA-MARIN JOSE 118 8.00    
SCR  DAVID'S TUITION Jun01         (baker jam)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
7  LOCO Nov09 Oct12 Sep17 Jun22 May28 (cano munoz)NAVAS YOEL 117 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  SWAGGISH Mar12 Feb18 Dec31     (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 25% 3.10    
 
ELP-2   06/22/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TECHNE May25 Apr13       (guerrero sal)NAVAS YOEL 112 30.00    
  (by KLIMT out of CTIMENE by CONSOLIDATOR)
SCR  GOLDEN SYMPHONY         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 8.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of SOUND THE TRUMPETS by BERNARDINI)
3  FIFTH AVENUE May25         (mott riley)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50    
  (by STREET SENSE out of PRINCESINHA JULIA by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
SCR  DAILY GRIND         (lukas w)TORRES A 119 6.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of WALK CLOSE by TAPIT)
5  HEY JOE JOE         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of PEACH BREW by MILWAUKEE BREW)
6  EL PELIGRO Jun06         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00 34% 1.90    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of SYMPATHY by HENRYTHENAVIGATOR)
SCR  BERNIN HOT May25         (davis christopher)LOPEZ E 119 4.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of LAVENDER BABY by RUBIANO)
8  LAMBO         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 35% 1.80    
  (by UNCLE MO out of SUNSHINY DAY by BERNARDINI)
 
ELP-3   06/22/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FAMILY MAN Nov12 Oct02 Jul17 Jun29 May15 (medina robert)GARCIA MARTIN 124 5.00    
2  TEPEU May13 Apr15 Oct01 Aug13 Jul01 (walsh br)SANTANA JR 126 10.00 14% 6.10    
3  GRAPHIC DETAIL May28 Apr15 Mar10 Feb03 Dec29 (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 124 3.50    
4  HEARTBREAKER Jun02 May13 Apr12 Jun17 May21 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 126 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  EVERSO MISCHIEVOUS May06 Feb11       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.20 55% 0.80    
6  COMMUNICATION MEMO Jan01 Dec16 Nov19 Oct21 Sep17 (asmussen )TORRES A 118 4.00    
 
ELP-4   06/22/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HARRY HOOD May21 Mar12       (brown ch)SANTANA JR 118 3.50 5% 19.00    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of DESTINY UNBOUND by GALILEO (ARG))
2  CREATIVE WAY May25         (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of PROUD AND FEARLESS by PROUD CITIZEN)
3  TESTIMONY TIME May27 Apr29       (brumley william )NAVAS YOEL 118 30.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of SILVEREST by CONGRATS)
4  BOONE'S PATH Apr15 Mar25 Mar02 Jan25 Dec31 (young ter)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PIONEEROF THE NILE out of INDIAN CARLIE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
5  NOISES OFF May14 Mar25 Feb24 Jan28 Nov26 (lobo paul)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 4.00 55% 0.80    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of UZZIEL by HARLINGTON)
6  DAI VERNON         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.50 5% 19.00    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of CHARLADORA by SCAT DADDY)
7  BRIGADE COMMANDER May14 Apr16       (stewart dall)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of INSPEIGHT OF US by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
8  BABA VOSS Aug21         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
  (by EMPIRE MAKER out of SIEMPRE MIA by SCAT DADDY)
9  NOW THAT ICAN ROCK May21 Apr20 Mar25 Feb17   (michael brian)COURT K 118 8.00 14% 6.30    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of WESTSIDE SINGER by GONE WEST)
10  MO SATURDAYS May04 Feb02 Oct30 Oct09 Sep01 (stall m)LANERIE J 118 5.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of MIGHTY KATHERINE by SEEKING THE DIA)
SCR  SURFACE TO AIR May28 Apr28 Jan20 Nov19 Oct21 (miller da)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 6.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of SHEMAZON by CONGRATS)
SCR  SMOKEY MANDATE May06 Mar25 Mar11     (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
  (by STRONG MANDATE out of EVEN FOREST by EVEN THE SCORE)
SCR  REAL NAUGHTY May06 Apr13       (hiles a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00    
  (by CONGRATS out of NAUGHTY SISTER by ARCHARCHARCH)
SCR  COACH PETRO May14 Apr14 Dec16 Sep25 Aug20 (estvanko r)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of HEY NIKI by INCLUDE)
 
ELP-5   06/22/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIKITA Jan28         (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 4.00 11% 7.70    
2  SUMMERTIME ROSE May29 Apr23 Apr01 Mar09 Dec31 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 21% 3.80    
3  CATHERINE BLAZE Jun10 Apr28 Apr13 Mar24 Mar05 (leonard i)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
4  PADDY GAL May19 Apr23 Sep05 Jul29   (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 8.00    
5  TRUISM Jun01 Nov30 Sep29 Jul14   (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  AUTISM COMMUNITY Apr21 Mar23 Dec30 Dec03 Nov05 (wong jonathan)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.00 42% 1.40    
7  MALIBU SMART May29 Apr01       (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.50    
 
ELP-6   06/22/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GROUP EIGHTEEN May19 Apr19 Mar18 Feb24 Jan28 (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 12.00    
2  MASTER GAME May11 Apr15 Feb21 Jan19 Dec08 (forster t)GRAHAM J 124 2.50 18% 4.50    
3  LONGSHADOW May26 Apr19 Mar17 Sep08 Aug17 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 10.00 8% 11.20    
4  BERNIE LOMAX May20 May02 Apr13 Jan28 Dec31 (childers)RODRIGUEZ A 119 8.00    
5  JAY VEE BEE May12 Apr22 Mar25 Feb11 Jan25 (van t)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.50    
6  CIRCLE BACK JACK Jun02 May19 May04 Mar10 Feb10 (garcia gen)CORRALES GERARDO 124 1.20 53% 0.90    
 
ELP-7   06/22/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMERICAN STARLET May19 Oct19 Sep13 Aug19 Jun05 (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 116 1.80 54% 0.80    
2  LINGUISTIC May28 Apr07 Feb03 Oct06 Sep19 (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 18% 4.70    
3  BOUDOIR BURLESQUE May28 May12 Apr16 Mar28 Mar16 (decker anna)MOJICA JR 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  LAURA'S CHARM May28 Jan13 Dec22 Nov19 Oct13 (kerrick lacy)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 20.00    
5  ALTERED SHOT May12 Mar17 Feb24 Jan28 Dec15 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 121 10.00 7% 12.90    
6  FROZEN SOLID May28 Apr29 Apr07 Feb15 Jan06 (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 121 6.00    
7  ABOUKIR BAY Feb21 Jan14 Oct19 Sep03 May14 (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 121 5.00    
8  FANNIE AND FREDDIE May05 Feb12 Jun11 May06 Jan22 (stall m)LANERIE J 121 12.00    
9  ALARM CLOCK Apr13 Mar25 Feb10 Jan21 Dec11 (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LOVE OF MY HEART May13 Jun25 May05 Mar19 Jan29 (forster gra)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 3.00    
SCR  ROCK STAR PARKING Jan14 Jan01 Dec21 Nov30 Nov02 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 4.00    
SCR  HEADLAND May29 Apr21 Mar02 Jan14 Oct26 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.50    
 
ELP-8   06/22/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ICARUS May25 May05 Apr22 Mar11 Feb25 (van berg )TORRES A 122 20.00    
2  COMMANDPERFORMANCE May25 Apr06 Aug07 Jul10 Jun10 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 122 5.00 12% 7.40    
3  BRIGADIER GENERAL May06 Feb25 Sep17 Aug20 Jul04 (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 12.00    
4  GILDED AGE May25 Sep24 Aug27 Jul29 Jul04 (mott william )GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00 13% 6.60    
5  MINNESOTA READY May14 Apr16 Mar16 Jan26 Dec11 (pessin l)LANERIE J 122 6.00    
6  BOURBON HEIST May14 Apr28 Mar10 Jan13 Dec11 (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 115 4.00 14% 6.10    
7  KING OTTOMAN Jun04 May06 Mar17 Sep25 Aug06 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.00 33% 2.00    
8  MAJOR FED May27 Nov13 Oct20 Sep15 May13 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 12.00    
9  ROMAN CENTURIAN Jun04 May18 Mar11 Feb18 May15 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  COASTAL DEFENSE May06 Mar04 Nov23     (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 122 15.00    
 
ELP-9   06/22/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TIZ WICKED STRONG May14         (baker james)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
  (by WICKED STRONG out of TIZ KISMET by TIZNOW)
2  SIX MISSIONS May14 Oct15 Sep03 Jul30   (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
  (by RANSOM THE MOON out of UNCOMPLICATED by HALF OURS)
3  BRAGGADOCIOUS May02 Apr15       (arnold georg)LANDEROS CHRIS 125 6.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of TIZ O' GOLD by CEE'S TIZZY)
4  CALL ME CASSIUS Feb11         (warpool shane)CANNON DECLAN 125 20.00    
  (by VANCOUVER out of QUALITY PEARL by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
5  ATLANTIC DANCER May02 Mar23 Mar02 Feb04 Jan07 (zito p)BEJARANO R 125 10.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of SLOW SAND by DIXIELAND BAND)
6  UNWRAPPED May21         (wong jonathan)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of BELLEOFTHEBEACH by MASTER COMMAND)
7  ORBI ONE May25 May11 Aug06     (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ORB out of HONEY LAKE by HONEYLAND)
8  ROYAL SALUTE Dec10 Oct15       (lynch bria)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 20% 4.10    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of ELOQUENTLY by DANSILI)
9  ST. NEOTS May21 Apr20 Mar15 Aug27 Jul16 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 11% 7.80    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of ALLIE by BAYOU HEBERT)
10  CURLINS INCHARGE May28 May04 Mar31 Feb18 Jan07 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 4.50 9% 10.40    
  (by CURLIN out of SWEEPING PADDY by PADDY O'PRADO)
11  BERRETTINI May28 Apr20 Sep03     (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.50 38% 1.60    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  PILKINGTON         (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 12.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of STORMIN ELLE by STORMELLO)
SCR  WE WILL CONQUER May29         (medina robert)GARCIA MARTIN 118 12.00    
  (by ACCELERATE out of ASPIRING by SEEKING THE GOLD)
SCR  SELF RULE May28 May11 Feb16 Jan25 Dec31 (preston rand)CALLEJA ANDRES 115 30.00    
  (by ANIMAL KINGDOM out of TEMPERENCE GIFT by KINGMAMBO)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.