Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Keeneland
Wednesday - October 23, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

KEE-1   WIN (2/9/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/9/3/7)-(2/9/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/9/3/7)-(2/9/3/7)-(2/9/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/9/3/7)-(4/11/2/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/9/3/7)-(4/11/2/5/3)-(6/1/7/8) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
KEE-2   WIN (4/11/2/5/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/11/2/5/3)-(4/11/2/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/11/2/5/3)-(4/11/2/5/3)-(4/11/2/5/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/11/2/5/3)-(6/1/7/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/11/2/5/3)-(6/1/7/8)-(4/5/2/7/10) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-3   WIN (6/1/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/7/8)-(6/1/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/7/8)-(6/1/7/8)-(6/1/7/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/1/7/8)-(4/5/2/7/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/1/7/8)-(4/5/2/7/10)-(10/4/9/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
KEE-4   WIN (4/5/2/7/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/5/2/7/10)-(4/5/2/7/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/5/2/7/10)-(4/5/2/7/10)-(4/5/2/7/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/5/2/7/10)-(10/4/9/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/5/2/7/10)-(10/4/9/3)-(6/11/9/7/10) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-5   WIN (10/4/9/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/4/9/3)-(10/4/6/9/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/4/9/3)-(10/4/6/9/3)-(10/4/6/9/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/4/9/3)-(6/11/9/7/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/4/9/3)-(6/11/9/7/10)-(7/1/10/6/3) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-6   WIN (6/11/9/7/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/11/9/7/10)-(6/11/9/7/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/11/9/7/10)-(6/11/9/7/10)-(6/11/9/7/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/11/9/7/10)-(7/1/10/6/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (6/11/9/7/10)-(7/1/10/6/3)-(4/10/9/12/11) 125 $1.00 $125 
KEE-7   WIN (7/1/10/6/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/1/10/6/3)-(7/1/10/6/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/1/10/6/3)-(7/1/10/6/3)-(7/1/10/6/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/1/10/6/3)-(4/10/9/12/11) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
KEE-8   WIN (4/10/9/12/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/10/9/12/11)-(4/10/9/12/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/10/9/12/11)-(4/10/9/12/11)-(4/10/9/12/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
KEE-1   10/23/2024 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($63K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  NORISKIT NOBISCUIT Sep08 Aug05 Jun12 Feb17 Jan20 (murphy conor)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
CHA CHA CHUKKA Sep26 Aug19 Jul14 Jun06 Dec28 (walsh brendan )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 6.00 58% 0.70    
LOW COUNTRY MAGIC Sep26 Jul27 Jun15 May30 Apr17 (correas ignaci)ORTIZ L 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
CRAZY CAMI Sep18 Jun28 May25 Nov02 Oct06 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50    
LUCY GOT GAME Sep20 Aug24 Feb24 Feb04   (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
SACRED SAINT Sep26 Aug19 Feb04 Jan13 Jan01 (scherer marian)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00    
WITS AND WAGERS Sep26 Jul22 Jun15 Nov12 Oct18 (oliver victor)VELAZQUEZ R 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
YO PUEDO Jul21 Jun15 May11 Aug05 Jun16 (medina ro)TORRES A 122 6.00    
EAST SHORE Sep26 Aug24 Jul22 Nov12 Oct18 (romans dale)LANERIE J 122 3.50 13% 6.80    
 
KEE-2   10/23/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($53K) 2 F PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SHE'S SINGLE AGAIN Sep21         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 4.50    
GOLDEN IRISH         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.50 21% 3.80    
SECURITY PLEDGE         (esquivel jesus)VAZQUEZ A 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
CITIZEN JUDY Sep13 Jun16 Apr11     (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00 33% 2.00    
TEGWAR Sep26 Aug25 Jul09     (wainwrigh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
GET IT TOGETHER         (compton greg)ORTIZ L 119 12.00    
ARDITAMENTE         (sims phili)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 15.00    
MOM'S CHEESECAKE Sep21 Sep04       (kerrick lac)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00    
LITTLE BIT O STORM Oct06 Sep13 Aug25     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
10  SEVENON Sep29         (holsapple hutch)GRAHAM J 119 30.00    
11  BULLET BABY         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.00 22% 3.60    
12  REAL MISCHIEVOUS         (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 119 15.00    
SCR  REECHO         (maker mi)SANTANA JR 119 6.00    
SCR  ENDLESS FASHION Sep26         (mendieta alejandr)HESS SARA 112 30.00    
SCR  SHE STOPPED SHORT Sep08 Aug22 Aug01     (campbell joel)ORTIZ L 119 10.00    
SCR  HUIXTLA Aug24 Jun16       (gutierrez f)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00    
 
KEE-3   10/23/2024 6270ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($63K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GILDED CRAKEN Sep12 Aug02 Jul12 Jun02 May11 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 12% 7.50    
SCR  FEAR OF UNION Sep20 Aug01 Jun28 Jun06 Apr24 (compton greg)ORTIZ JR 122 6.00    
AZOI Sep25 Aug29 Aug10 Jul05 Jun12 (morey william )ORTIZ L 120 20.00    
ATLANTIC DANCER Sep25 Aug26 Aug04 Oct27 Oct08 (cook b)BEJARANO R 122 8.00    
UNSTABLE PRINCE Sep21 Aug17 Aug11 Jul14 Jun16 (jacobson david)VAZQUEZ A 122 6.00    
CURLIN'S GESTURE Sep25 Aug17 Jul21 May11 Jul02 (scherer marian)MACHADO LUAN 122 3.50 45% 1.20    
APOLLO RISING Jun07 May12 Mar29 Mar02 Jan12 (walden wi)TORRES A 122 8.00 11% 8.10    
OVERSTATEMENT Oct04 Sep10 Aug10 Jun07 May24 (miller kenny)LANERIE J 118 20.00 7% 14.20    
MINISTERIAL Aug15 Jun26 Feb18 Jun18 Apr20 (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 122 5.00    
 
KEE-4   10/23/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($69K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROMAN CENTURIAN Sep27 May30 Apr12 Mar21 Mar01 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00    
NULLARBOR Oct06 Sep15 Aug06 Jul20 Jun26 (manley st)TORRES A 122 4.50 7% 13.60    
W W CRAZY Sep22 Jul29 Jul15 May25 Apr20 (santamaria car)ORTIZ L 122 10.00    
SHOW TIME Sep29 Aug30 Jun23 May11 May27 (cunningham)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00 40% 1.50    
STRAVA Aug24 May04 Mar30 Feb09 Jan12 (casse no)SANTANA JR 122 4.00 26% 2.80    
ROCCO STRONG Sep19 Aug18 Aug01 Jul11 Jun07 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00    
HUGE BIGLY Sep25 Jul14 Jun07 Apr05 Mar21 (shorter aaron)VAZQUEZ A 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
NAVY SOUL Sep19 Aug18 Jul14 Jun07 May16 (pittman bonn)MONCADA IRVING 115 30.00    
UNDERDRESSED Sep12 Aug05 Jun25 Jun04 May13 (west m)MORALES EDGAR 122 3.00    
10  C F V BULLET Oct06 Sep15 Aug08 Jul06 Jun29 (hernandez armando)EMIGH A 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
KEE-5   10/23/2024 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
REDO Sep24 Sep07 Aug11 Jun27 May27 (ortiz alex)VAZQUEZ A 120 30.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of UNDO by FLATTER)
HIGH SHOT Sep27 Sep07 Oct04 Sep16 Aug26 (simms mark )CONCEPCION AXEL 120 15.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of SMART SHOT by SKIPSHOT)
IMPRACTICAL DIVA Sep29 Aug26       (mccarthy micha)ROSARIO JOEL 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of MS TRISH S. by SMOKE WARNING)
MY BRAZILIAN GIRL Aug18 Jul21 Jun29 Oct24 Sep23 (wadsworth)LEPAROUX R 120 4.00 27% 2.80    
  (by GOLDEN LAD out of WALTZING CAT by MORE THAN READY)
PRETTY PERTINENT Sep21 Jul13       (miller darrin)VELAZQUEZ R 120 20.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of PRETTY PROLIFIC by LION HEART)
ONE FRONT WAR Aug31 Jul11       (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of SINGLE SOLUTION by FLATTER)
FUN LOVING Sep13 Aug19 Jul15 May25 Apr18 (oliver victo)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 30.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of FRIVOLOUS by FOOLISH PLEASURE)
STREETWHEREYOULIVE Jul09 Jun06 Apr17 Oct25   (sims phil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 15.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of MY ROYALTY by STREET SENSE)
STENTS AND STATINS (GB) Apr19 Feb10 Sep03     (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SOLDIER HOLLOW out of DEALBATA by DUBAWI)
10  BIRDWATCHING Aug31 Jan20       (delacour arnaud)GRAHAM J 120 1.20 51% 1.00    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of ELUSIVE BIRD by STORM BIRD)
11  EIGHT DAYS SOBER Feb07 Dec27       (navarrete ann)MORALES EDGAR 120 30.00    
  (by ENTICED out of CHILD PLEASE by WAR FRONT)
12  SCENIC BEAUTY Aug31 Aug08 Jun09 Apr20 Jan12 (medina ro)TORRES A 120 20.00    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of LUCKY COVER by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  BUNDCHEN Aug31 Apr28       (ward wesle)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of NO MORE PARTIES by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  LOVE ME SWEET         (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 120 10.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of LOVE CAME TO TOWN by MEDALLIST)
SCR  BOURBON THIEF Sep07 Aug08 Mar21     (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 6.00    
  (by TAPWRIT out of MISS GRACER by UNCLE MO)
SCR  TIME STONE Sep15 Aug23 Mar15 Jan21   (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 120 4.50    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of WEEKDAY by DANSILI)
 
KEE-6   10/23/2024 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($120K) 3 F PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SANCTIFY Oct04 Sep11 Aug24 Aug04 Jun29 (holsapple )HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
REGALED Aug31 Jul27 Jul08 Jun09 May11 (davis g)BOYCE FOREST 118 30.00    
NEON ICON Sep21 Aug17 Jul06 May23 Apr17 (arnold george )ORTIZ L 118 5.00    
SCR  LETSTALKABOUTME Sep20 Jul29 Jun15 May18 Apr07 (green tro)TORRES A 118 30.00    
INTRICATE Aug17 Jul20 Jun15 Mar23 Feb17 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
LANDED Aug25 Jun09 Apr07 Feb18 Dec17 (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 120 3.50 55% 0.80    
EVERLAND Sep21 Aug25 Aug04 Jul13 Jun01 (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
JUST BE QUIET Sep29 Aug24 Jul06 Jun13 May16 (gorham rob)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
AUDACIOUS Sep14 Aug03 Jun06     (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00 8% 11.20    
10  AMERICA'S VOW Sep13 Aug17 Jul28 Jun01 May03 (hamm timothy)GRAHAM J 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
11  MUSICAL NOTE Aug26 Feb10 Jan27     (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 8.00 11% 8.10    
SCR  SAKURA BLOSSOM Sep11 Aug17 Jul20 Jun01 May17 (powell leonar)ORTIZ JR 118 20.00    
 
KEE-7   10/23/2024 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($140K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ARREST ME RED Aug31 Aug04 May04 Mar22 Feb03 (ward wesl)DETTORI LANFRANCO 121 3.50 27% 2.70    
SCR  STITCHED Jun01 May02 Nov11 Oct07 Sep02 (foley greg)PRAT FLAVIEN 123 15.00    
MARK OF THE Z Jul28 Apr19 Oct15 Jun21 Apr22 (rodriguez g)BAIRD T 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
FRONT RUN THE FED Aug31 Jul27 Jun14 May04 Apr06 (caramori ca)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 30.00    
EAMONN Sep28 Aug29 Aug11 Jul20 Jun16 (orseno joseph )ORTIZ L 123 12.00    
MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE Aug31 Jul28 Jun08 Feb17 Dec02 (maker michael )ROSARIO JOEL 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
OUTADORE Sep05 Aug04 Jun22 Apr27 Mar22 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.50 37% 1.70    
SCR  BUSHIDO Aug20 Jul20 Jun22 May25 Apr27 (hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00    
THAT'S RIGHT Sep07 Aug24 Jul20 Jun07 May18 (russell britt)ORTIZ JR 121 8.00    
10  MO STASH Sep07 Aug04 Jun08 May04 Apr05 (oliver victor)VELAZQUEZ R 123 4.00 12% 7.20    
SCR  AGENT PETER GRAVES Aug17 Jun29 May27 Apr19 Mar23 (young e)VAZQUEZ A 125 12.00    
12  SOSUA SUMMER Aug31 Jun08 Apr06 Jan20 Dec23 (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 15.00    
SCR  SPANKSTER Sep27 Aug04 Jun29 May24 May06 (cunningham)ASMUSSEN J 121 20.00    
SCR  BAD BEAT BRIAN Jun08 May04 Apr06 Dec31 Dec01 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 10.00    
SCR  DETERMINED KINGDOM Oct05 Aug31 Aug11 Jul20 Jun28 (schoenthal phi)ROSARIO JOEL 125 6.00    
SCR  JEAN VALJEAN Sep21 Aug30 Jul19 Jun19 Feb09 (merryman eli)GEROUX FLORENT 125 4.50    
 
KEE-8   10/23/2024 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HARVEST N'HEARTH         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of SHE HUNG THE MOON by MALIBU MOON)
AU CONTRAIRE Sep21         (antonucci je)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
  (by TAPIT out of DREAM RUSH by WILD RUSH)
ROYAL COACH         (calhoun will)TORRES A 119 20.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of ROYAL AZAHAR by CURLIN)
TOUCHY Aug10 Jun06       (ward a)ROSARIO JOEL 119 1.60 39% 1.60    
  (by NYQUIST out of TOUCH THE MOON by MALIBU MOON)
TARTARIAN         (ennis john)LEONARD KILLIAN 119 20.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of SUNSET PROMISE by BROKEN VOW)
MO QUALITY         (davis christop)ORTIZ L 119 12.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of REVEALING QUALITY by QUALITY ROAD)
THE FORM         (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 119 30.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of PHILLY MIGNON by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  HITCHCOCK Sep12         (eurton peter)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of MY DEAR VENEZUELA by WILDCAT HEIR)
CAN DO ANDREW Sep28         (anderson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 17% 5.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of RAINBOW SPARKLE by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
10  ORIGINAL SIN         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.50 21% 3.70    
  (by CURLIN out of BEAUTY AND LIGHT by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
11  CAMPAIGN TRAIL Sep12 Aug24       (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of LUNA RISING by STAY THIRSTY)
12  AMOR PATRIAE         (divito ja)TORRES A 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of AMAZING LITTLELADY by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  STEPPE         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00    
  (by SKY MESA out of SUBTLE STEP by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  BAKER HAYFIELD         (heath g)GRAHAM J 119 20.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of SKYLAR'S PASS by THE FACTOR)
SCR  DISCLAIMER         (terranova p)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
  (by CARACARO out of TARA ROAD by QUALITY ROAD)
SCR  FAUST         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 6.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of WHISTLING STRAITS by CAPE CANAVERAL)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.